NBC poll: For the first time, more independents disapprove of Obama than approve

posted at 7:50 pm on September 22, 2009 by Allahpundit

An eight-point swing in just two months. This is not the centrist “pragmatist” they thought they knew.

For the first time, independent voters—who delivered Mr. Obama the White House and Democrats control of the Congress—disapprove of the job he is doing, 46% to the 41% who approve. In July, 49% of independents approved of the president, against 38% who disapproved.

New doubts about the president have coincided with new hopes for Republicans, who appeared flattened by the election nearly a year ago.

As the 2010 election cycle heats up, independent voters now favor Republican control of Congress by four percentage points.

“For a party walloped two cycles in a row with independents, I think those are very important stories,” said Bill McInturff, a partner at the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, who conducts the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll with Democratic pollster Peter Hart.

His approval rating’s flat at 51 percent overall. More anti-statist backlash from the crosstabs: For the first time since 1997, more people say government is doing too many things rather than not doing enough (49/45) and more are worried about the exploding deficit than the need to “boost” the economy with new spending (62/30, up from 58/35 in June). This speaks for itself:

On health care, the best spin NBC can muster is that he’s up slightly from last month after his Beyond Thunderdome media blitz — but the gains are so slight as to be within the margin of error. A plurality still opposes the public option (46/48, up slightly from 43/47 in August but still down from 46/44 in July) and 59 percent say they’d either prefer or demand that a mandate to buy insurance not be included in the final bill.

And yet:

As loathsome as the left’s demagoguery of conservatives over health care has been, credit them with having convinced the public that it’s the GOP, not the warring between Blue Dogs and progressives, that’s stalled the bill in Congress.

The sample for the poll, by the way: 41 percent Democrat and just 29 percent Republican (if leaners are included). Exit question: Is there any real utility to tracking The One’s approval rating when it’s tied so heavily to the economic outlook? John Judis has a piece at TNR today reminding us that FDR and Reagan won huge reelection landslides not because the economy was in tiptop shape when the election was held but merely because it was improving after a long period of downturn. There’s no reason I can think of to suspect that things will be different for Obama. The difference between him and Reagan may simply be that it’ll take longer for that improvement to show than it did for the Gipper.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Buncha racist, teabagging Independents!

OxyCon on September 22, 2009 at 10:08 PM

Economic improvement under this regime will be so slow as to be imperceptible, and if they don’t get monetary policy right over the next two years, then stagflation never known before, here we come, this while enduring an increasing tax burden to support redistributionist entitlement programs.

Capital is not flowing into the US. Nothing about Obama’s speech or behavior suggests any intent to implement free market stimulus, or even understanding it. It’s called less government.

exdeadhead on September 22, 2009 at 10:25 PM

As loathsome as the left’s demagoguery of conservatives over health care has been, credit them with having convinced the public that it’s the GOP, not the warring between Blue Dogs and progressives, that’s stalled the bill in Congress.

Yeah, but “blame”? That’s a pretty loaded question in the poll there. I’d say “who gets the credit”.

ddrintn on September 22, 2009 at 10:40 PM

There’s no reason I can think of to suspect that things will be different for Obama. The difference between him and Reagan may simply be that it’ll take longer for that improvement to show than it did for the Gipper.

There’s one big reason I can think of: Obama’s policies are not conducive to economic growth.

ddrintn on September 22, 2009 at 10:42 PM

What can I say better than this video?
Dogs and Obama

RealityCheck4 on September 22, 2009 at 9:24 PM

That dog is clearly racist.

And I thought I heard him growl “boy” under his breath.

Vyce on September 22, 2009 at 10:53 PM

There’s no reason I can think of to suspect that things will be different for Obama. The difference between him and Reagan may simply be that it’ll take longer for that improvement to show than it did for the Gipper.

The expiration of the Bush tax cuts at the end of 2010 – unless you think the Republicans can pull off a veto-proof majority to get it past Obama … not to mention other inevitable tax hikes.

Wanna rethink that?

thirteen28 on September 22, 2009 at 11:14 PM

Man those independents are stubborn.

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 22, 2009 at 11:14 PM

Tossing dollars onto a bonfire by the bushel is not a great strategy for economic recovery. But just try telling Obama’s “smartest guys in the room” that. “Sure it failed every time it was applied before,” they say, “But this time it’s different! Those guys weren’t smart, like we are!” Yeah, you keep telling yourselves that, guys.

On matters of policy, even financial ones, all of us are smarter than any of us – even you. And we’re telling you, we’re out of money. Not just you, but us too. You spent it all, and didn’t even get “magic beans” to show for it. If you’d left us to our own devices, sure you’d have less power – but we’d still have prosperity. Now we don’t – and you’re in a highly visible position of power. Next November’s coming sooner than you think. We’ve got pink-slips enough to have one for each of you.

Blacksmith on September 22, 2009 at 11:15 PM

And I thought I heard him growl “boy” under his breath.

Vyce on September 22, 2009 at 10:53 PM

It’s crap like that that…grow up…

jerrytbg on September 22, 2009 at 11:15 PM

It’s crap like that that…grow up…

jerrytbg on September 22, 2009 at 11:15 PM

So people shouldn’t quote Maureen Dowd anymore?

PackerBronco on September 22, 2009 at 11:59 PM

PackerBronco on September 22, 2009 at 11:59 PM

I didn’t see a sarc at the end…
So I must ASSume…I stand corrected if I read it wrong…

jerrytbg on September 23, 2009 at 12:09 AM

Maybe he should go back to Berlin and campaign some more. He polled well among independents there. If that goes flat, he could always try another major speeeechh in Cairo to get the independent vote there./

redwhiteblue on September 23, 2009 at 1:06 AM

that’s my flavor.

ted c on September 22, 2009 at 8:19 PM

I like your flaver.

I might add stop all Muslim immigration.

atheling on September 23, 2009 at 1:32 AM

Why is failure to pass healthcare legislation something to gain blame and not credit?

kurtzz3 on September 22, 2009 at 8:57 PM

Because it’s Obama’s “signature piece of legislation”. It’s going to be something that he will be known for, like FDR’s New Deal. If he can’t pass it, it will make him a lame duck. Therefore, they will pass something, and it will be bad.

So we have to get it repealed.

atheling on September 23, 2009 at 1:36 AM

I have to feel that at some point the Dems are going to look at the polls and say, “screw it. the blue dogs are dead with or without healthcare reform so the hell with them. Let’s pass our bill.”

PackerBronco on September 23, 2009 at 2:11 AM

“Exit question: Is there any real utility to tracking The One’s approval rating when it’s tied so heavily to the economic outlook?”

My opinion: no.

David Blue on September 23, 2009 at 3:09 AM

So it really comes down to the fickle Independents. Our country’s fate is in the hands of people that are supportive of something for no real principled reason, more like a cat with a string.

Jeff from WI on September 23, 2009 at 5:30 AM

Exit question: Is there any real utility to tracking The One’s approval rating when it’s tied so heavily to the economic outlook?

Nope. He’s not banking on an improving economy to get reelected. He can’t make that happen “on command”. However, there is another thing that usually results in reelection that he can make happen on command (as Commander in Chief). I suspect he’ll take that path.

CC

CapedConservative on September 23, 2009 at 7:04 AM

I’m just happy the Hope n’ Change is wearing off of people. It will take the Independent vote to make the change in 2010.

yoda on September 23, 2009 at 8:02 AM

Let me be clear, this is the most racist group of independents ever polled.

la.rt.wngr on September 23, 2009 at 10:08 AM

Socialists (=”liberals”): 30%
Real/classical liberals, libertarians, independents: 40%
Conservatives: 30%

To save the Constitution we need a coalition of independents and conservatives.

The Obamacrats will be safe as long as conservatives assume they are the only true opposition, as long as the political divide is defined as conservatives vs liberals.

modifiedcontent on September 23, 2009 at 10:11 AM

Independents are anything but independent. Lefties who make themselves feel better by calling themselves that. Just like atheist calling themselves freethinkers. Both are just an illusion.

inchdeep on September 23, 2009 at 10:52 AM

Comment pages: 1 2