UN nuke agency: Iran can build a bomb right now

posted at 4:52 pm on September 17, 2009 by Allahpundit

The perfect piece of news to crown this morning’s capitulation in eastern Europe. Note well: As recently as last night, U.S. intel officials were leaking to the Obama spin shop at Newsweek that they still have no evidence that Iran restarted its weapons program after 2003. Now here comes ElBaradei, an Iranian stooge of such shamelessness that he actually got caught trying to bury incriminating evidence against Tehran just last week, to sheepishly admit that things are rather more nuanced than American intelligence believes.

Experts at the world’s top atomic watchdog are in agreement that Tehran has the ability to make a nuclear bomb and is on the way to developing a missile system able to carry an atomic warhead, according to a secret report seen by The Associated Press…

The document says Iran has “sufficient information” to build a bomb. It says Iran is likely to “overcome problems” on developing a delivery system.

It’s not clear what this means, exactly, but it sounds like Iran’s now roughly in the position Japan is: They’ve figured out how to highly-enrich uranium and have the necessary centrifuge technology in place to do the job if and when they need to. The question is how many HEU-capable centrifuges are in their arsenal, which in turn will determine how quickly they can churn out a bomb; for a gloss on that, revisit that little detail I mentioned yesterday about there being 10-15 secret nuclear sites in Iran even by the estimates of our own dopey intel services.

But never mind that. Let’s get back to that minor detail about a missile delivery system, since it’s rather highly germane to the big news of the day. The One assured us this morning that our crack Iran intelligence unit thinks Tehran will be focused on short- and medium-range missiles in the near future, thereby obviating the need for a robust missile shield. Any particular reason to trust that assessment given how wrong — and wrongly politicized — Iranian intelligence estimates have been in the past? Over to you, NRO:

In a remarkable feat of doublespeak, Obama and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates have tried to portray the move as an embrace of missile defense that will enhance our security. Rather than focusing on long-range threats from Iran, they say, the United States now will concentrate on short-range threats.

That’s an example of short-range thinking. A robust system of missile defense never has demanded such trade-offs. Instead, it calls for a sophisticated architecture that counters threats in different forms. Intelligence estimates have forecast that Iran could develop intercontinental rockets by 2015. This morning, Obama and Gates insisted that these estimates are mistaken. If Iran has in fact slowed down its work in this area — a claim that national-security experts have questioned — it may have been in response to American determination to construct a NATO-approved system in Eastern Europe. Today’s announcement may persuade Tehran to reconsider and look for ways to exploit a new vulnerability. As Donald Rumsfeld once warned, weakness is provocative.

Indeed it is, which is why Sunni states in the Gulf are now scrambling to install their own missile systems and why, as ABC tersely notes, “There is real fear and some expectation here of a military confrontation.”

As for the Russian end of this, you’ll be pleased to know that in return for our signaling that we won’t interfere in Moscow’s sphere of influence in eastern Europe, Russia’s foreign minister decided to flip us the bird this morning over our demand for new sanctions against Iran. Apparently there was no quid pro quo for abandoning two European allies, a point Gibbs grudgingly admitted in today’s briefing. So evidently disgusted was Poland’s prime minister by the betrayal, in fact, that he refused to take a call late last night from U.S. diplomats and then another this morning from Hillary. Said Solidarity hero Lech Walesa:

“American has always cared only about its own interests, and those of others only serve the US. Now we have another example of this,” he said in a television interview. “I can see what kind of policy the Obama administration is pursuing towards this part of Europe. We should reconsider our approach to the United States.”

A Czech politician put it more bluntly: “If the administration approaches us in the future with any request, I would be strongly against it.” Here’s video of The One’s Orwellian presser this morning, in which weakness equals strength and failing to obtain a single concrete concession while capitulating to a major rival constitutes “smart power.” You’re a hell of a poker player, Barry.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

truetexan– If you are surprised, shame on you.

rjoco1 on September 17, 2009 at 5:30 PM

That was my question, is anyone really surprised? The only thing that surprised me was Pelosi tearing up today about her fears of future “political violence”. I didn’t think I could be any more over her than when I saw that clip. I was wrong.

Nothing Obama surprises me. Everything he does is calculated. He can’t take us to where he wants to without bankrupting the country and aligning himself with the likes of Putin and Chavez. Yes, I said that in print.

truetexan on September 17, 2009 at 5:36 PM

Can Obama’s approval rate hit the 30′s by the end of September? Will we still be here to care by the end of September?

kingsjester on September 17, 2009 at 5:36 PM

“You fucked up — You trusted us.”

-OttoOtter

mesquito on September 17, 2009 at 5:01 PM

fixed

NoFanofLibs on September 17, 2009 at 5:38 PM

Can Obama’s approval rate hit the 30’s by the end of September?

kingsjester on September 17, 2009 at 5:36 PM

Yes it can!

Esthier on September 17, 2009 at 5:38 PM

I spent the better part of a year living in Prague 15 years ago, as westerners were flooding in to rebuild and invest and the welcome we received was extraordinary. I am sick to my stomach thinking that the friends I made then, who are now raising families of their own, will be at such risk. It’s not unlike how sick I felt earlier this year when Obama merely blinked at N. Korea’s continued missile tests, thinking about our former exchange student and her family in Seoul.

We’ve known all along how Obama feels about the sanctity of human life – I guess we only though he was referring to the unborn when he said the whole life issue was above his paygrade. Europeans, Koreans, Israeli’s, the young, the unborn, the old – he is not in a position to “judge” who should live or who should die. He is the ultimate amateur. What kind of decisions did he think he would have to make as President? Life or death decisions, a$$hole.

gopmom on September 17, 2009 at 5:41 PM

What an absolute fool we have for a president.

Chuck Schick on September 17, 2009 at 5:41 PM

I think those 8% of New Jerseyites who think Obama’s the Anti-Christ are on to something. Me, I prefer Manchurian candidate.

Fortunata on September 17, 2009 at 5:44 PM

Thanks, everyone, for irresponsible voting practices on November 4th. I, and the rest of the world, loves having to clean up after our country loses it’s collective mind every, oh, 20+ years or so.

Thank you. Again.

Diane on September 17, 2009 at 5:47 PM

This isn’t amatuer. This is purposeful. Obama is trying to bring us down. Learn it and fast. He is also trying to divert your attention from ACORN. He’s doing all this stuff faster and faster because he is in more and more trouble.
The future is very scary right now.

BetseyRoss on September 17, 2009 at 5:48 PM

Contemplating the concept of WWIII (or WWIV, whatever) is terrifying enough. If it happens while Obama is president, I just can’t imagine.

CP on September 17, 2009 at 5:48 PM

I stated this on another thread, but it seems appropriate here as well…

… There are an awful lot of people walking around right now that are actually dead, they just don’t know it yet.

Seven Percent Solution on September 17, 2009 at 5:55 PM

Seven Percent Solution on September 17, 2009 at 5:55 PM
Between this news and the terrorist threat your statement is absolutely correct. We just don’t know which will come first and how widespread the death toll will be. I don’t lose sleep over the thought of dying as much as I do over the state of our country.

fourdeucer on September 17, 2009 at 6:01 PM

Being a right-wing kook, I ask what Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will do when Iran demonstrates the Bomb and then requests the US Fifth Fleet redeploy to Diego Garcia?

Stand firm in trust with the United States, like Poland and Czech Republic?? or…

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 5:15 PM

They have oil. Poland the Czech Republic don’t.

ProfessorMiao on September 17, 2009 at 6:01 PM

Israeli jets over Iran in 10…9…8…7…

J.J. Sefton on September 17, 2009 at 6:04 PM

Contemplating the concept of WWIII (or WWIV, whatever) is terrifying enough. If it happens while Obama is president, I just can’t imagine.

CP on September 17, 2009 at 5:48 PM

Well, if it happens on Obama’s watch, chances are it will be over very quickly. He’ll surrender prontito, sacrificing Israel the way Chamberlain sacrificed Czechoslovakia in 1938.

ProfessorMiao on September 17, 2009 at 6:05 PM

They have oil. Poland the Czech Republic don’t.

ProfessorMiao on September 17, 2009 at 6:01 PM

Qatar does not actually. So does Iran have oil.
I can’t find the Dan Balz article from December 2006 where new Congressional majority whip Rahm Emmanuel says if “rogue elements” of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fire on the 5th Fleet, it will Bush’s fault for putting it in harm’s way…

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 6:09 PM

The bomb is one thing. An ICBM however is the real danger. Once they can put a nuclear explosion into space, the US will be sent back to the 1800s for years.

The ingenious thing about the EMP attack, is that without killing a single American, Iran will not suffer a major retaliatory strike, certainly not by obama. This is how Obama can play a significant role in the end of the days.

keep the change on September 17, 2009 at 6:10 PM

Israel needs to strike NOW!

jbh45 on September 17, 2009 at 6:15 PM

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 6:09 PM

Qatar doesn’t have oil?

you sure about that?

I mean, I want you to be SURE that qatar has NO oil!

Because if you aren’t sure, I just want you to know about BEING sure!

that is all.

upinak on September 17, 2009 at 6:18 PM

..weakness equals strength and failing to obtain a single concrete concession while capitulating to a major rival constitutes “smart power.”

The One makes me want to throw up. Seriously, everything he is doing to this great nation makes me ill with dread and shame.

He makes Carter seem worthy of being put on Mt. Rushmore by comparison.

As Mark Levin might say to Obama, “YOU JERK!!!!”

Yakko77 on September 17, 2009 at 6:20 PM

ElBaradei–another shining poster boy for never trust a Muslim to watch the Islamic hen house. Curse him for the deaths that he will be responsible for when it comes down on Israel and the USA.

wepeople on September 17, 2009 at 6:21 PM

Well, on the brighter side, setting off a bunch of nukes will cause nuclear winter, thus solving global warming.

GnuBreed on September 17, 2009 at 5:13 PM

++1000

lovingmyUSA on September 17, 2009 at 6:26 PM

Qatar doesn’t have oil?
you sure about that?
I mean, I want you to be SURE that qatar has NO oil!
Because if you aren’t sure, I just want you to know about BEING sure!
that is all.
upinak on September 17, 2009 at 6:18 PM

Guess they have some oil.
Still, if Iran threatens to nuke US bases on their soil, what does oil matter?

The ingenious thing about the EMP attack, is that without killing a single American, Iran will not suffer a major retaliatory strike, certainly not by obama. This is how Obama can play a significant role in the end of the days.

US military has been close enough to fission and fusion blasts to feel it in their teeth, and I hadn’t heard its electrical systems ever failed.
Every demonstration of EMP seems to be about as fierce as a hard reboot.

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 6:29 PM

Why do I feel like I am walking around in a set from the “Outer Limits”?

lovingmyUSA on September 17, 2009 at 6:29 PM

“American has always cared only about its own interests, and those of others only serve the US. Now we have another example of this,” he said in a television interview. “I can see what kind of policy the Obama administration is pursuing towards this part of Europe. We should reconsider our approach to the United States.”

– Lech Walesa

Lech doesn’t seem to understand that this doesn’t serve US interests, at all. This harms the US far more than it harms Poland or The Czech Republic. This move was calculated by the Traitor-in-Chief to harm US interests, as is true for everything the traitor does.

But, it isn’t Lech’s responsibility to worry about the US having a moronic traitor running our executive branch (into the ground).

progressoverpeace on September 17, 2009 at 6:30 PM

for some reason this a.m., after reading it was Constitution Day, i made a personal commitment to myself that i would be willing to sacrifice my life for my country.

bambi is doing this on purpose. my life might go faster than i thought.

kelley in virginia on September 17, 2009 at 6:34 PM

Here’s video of The One’s Orwellian presser this morning, in which weakness equals strength and failing to obtain a single concrete concession while capitulating to a major rival constitutes “smart power.” You’re a hell of a poker player, Barry.

Hey, allah, do you believe me, yet? How much more evidence are you going to need before you realize that the INTENT of The Precedent is to exact revenge on the US and the West. He doesn’t care about political repercussions or anything of the sort. All he wants to do is harm us, make us hurt, and bring us down, if he can. How much more evidence are you going to need?

progressoverpeace on September 17, 2009 at 6:41 PM

But Biden said that Iran doesn’t have the bomb yet. So who are you going to believe? Joe, or you lying eyes?

Onus on September 17, 2009 at 6:46 PM

Well, its a good thing Biden told us Iran isn’t a threat…

catmman on September 17, 2009 at 6:50 PM

Hey, allah, do you believe me, yet? How much more evidence are you going to need before you realize that the INTENT of The Precedent is to exact revenge on the US and the West. He doesn’t care about political repercussions or anything of the sort. All he wants to do is harm us, make us hurt, and bring us down, if he can. How much more evidence are you going to need?

progressoverpeace on September 17, 2009 at 6:41 PM

I’m sort of between two ways of thinking on that.

1) He is doing this deliberaely to punish and weaken this nation as he feels it is unjust and unfair and needs to be knocked down a few notches.

or

2) He’s simply a true believer. He believes his own propaganda. He is delusion to reality. He is oblivious to the consequences his actions will have. He is truly doing everything with the best of intensions and when, not if, they fail, he WILL NOT STOP. He’ll double down and compound the problem even more in his absolute faith in his political and social POV.

#2 is infinitely worse than #1. At leat with #1 he’d likely stop when the damage is done but with #2, he’ll keep on piling it on… all for your own good andwith the best of intentions. I still cling to #2 for the most part and to me that is what makes him so…. dangerous, yes, I said dangerous. The One is indeed a threat to this nation but in in the way many suspect I believe. He’ll harm if not destroy us all wwhile trying to save us.

Yakko77 on September 17, 2009 at 6:55 PM

S

lovingmyUSA on September 17, 2009 at 6:55 PM

Someone posted this earlier today–it’s a picture of Obama’s new defense stragedy:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/09/16/article-1213788-06769926000005DC-710_634x451.jpg

lovingmyUSA on September 17, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Will Obama cancel another part of our comprehensive military defense a few hours before an Israeli city vanishes under an Iranian nuke?

As a coy little hint, like the removed missile shield for the Poles and Czechs today, as with this follow-up news?

BTW- How do you say Potassium Iodide pills in Hebrew?

profitsbeard on September 17, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Someone posted this earlier today–it’s a picture of Obama’s new defense stragedy:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/09/16/article-1213788-06769926000005DC-710_634×451.jpg

lovingmyUSA on September 17, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Obama is a little light in the sabre.

And pants.

profitsbeard on September 17, 2009 at 7:01 PM

Guess they have some oil.
Still, if Iran threatens to nuke US bases on their soil, what does oil matter?
Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 6:29 PM

Okay.. do you really want me to go there?

Everything is made out of oil these dasy. From that computer you are typing on to the desk it sits on, to the chair you site in to the plastic bottle sitting on your desk, to the clothing you wear or the threads in it.

everything.

When people think oil, they think gasoline, fuel so on etc. Maybe it is time to think a little further out.

Getting rid of oil… isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

upinak on September 17, 2009 at 7:04 PM

i made a personal commitment to myself that i would be willing to sacrifice my life for my country.

bambi is doing this on purpose. my life might go faster than i thought.

kelley in virginia on September 17, 2009 at 6:34 PM
Dying FOR your country is an honorable thing, dying BECAUSE of Obama’s actions is another thing.

fourdeucer on September 17, 2009 at 7:05 PM

But if we would just talk with them. Why won’t anyone just talk….

Scrappy on September 17, 2009 at 7:08 PM

The way the Associated Press puts it, Europe “grumbles” at the announcement that we won’t protect them with missile shields. Grumbles? That’s an odd take on it. Grumbles– sort of like the complaint you would make when getting the wrong food order.

betsyz on September 17, 2009 at 7:15 PM

Anyone remeber the computer game Civilization? It was always funny when Ghandi said “Our words are backed by nuclear weapons.” In real life, Iran saying the same thing is not so funny.

AnotherOpinion on September 17, 2009 at 7:16 PM

The only computer game I’m playing right now is Fallout 3…

Fortunata on September 17, 2009 at 7:25 PM

US military has been close enough to fission and fusion blasts to feel it in their teeth, and I hadn’t heard its electrical systems ever failed.
Every demonstration of EMP seems to be about as fierce as a hard reboot.

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 6:29 PM

You do know the military hardens its electronics, don’t you? And you do know that there is a difference between a nuke designed to destroy vs one designed to magnify the effect of EMP? And that all of our civillian electronics and busines electronics are not specialy hardened as the military’s are? So, unless you can come up with some specifics to back your statement up, I’ll beleive you have not heard all there is to hear on this topic of life and death.

AnotherOpinion on September 17, 2009 at 7:26 PM

Okay.. do you really want me to go there?

Everything is made out of oil these dasy. From that computer you are typing on to the desk it sits on, to the chair you site in to the plastic bottle sitting on your desk, to the clothing you wear or the threads in it.

everything.

When people think oil, they think gasoline, fuel so on etc. Maybe it is time to think a little further out.

Getting rid of oil… isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

upinak on September 17, 2009 at 7:04 PM

Yeah. So what?

If Arab ambassadors to Iran are invited to a safe demonstration of an Iranian nuke, and are then invited to expel all American military from their territories within 90 days, lest Iran obliterate the American bases, what will oil have to do with it? You saying we’d stay in the Persian Gulf despite the objections of our hosts? Iran already kills Americans with impunity. We do nothing about it.

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 7:47 PM

You do know the military hardens its electronics, don’t you? And you do know that there is a difference between a nuke designed to destroy vs one designed to magnify the effect of EMP? And that all of our civillian electronics and busines electronics are not specialy hardened as the military’s are? So, unless you can come up with some specifics to back your statement up, I’ll beleive you have not heard all there is to hear on this topic of life and death.

AnotherOpinion on September 17, 2009 at 7:26 PM

Got a link to a nerdly discourse about the measurable difference between EMP and sunspots anywhere?

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 7:51 PM

The only computer game I’m playing right now is Fallout 3…

Fortunata on September 17, 2009 at 7:25 PM

Great game. How far along are you?

Fletch54 on September 17, 2009 at 7:58 PM

Yeah. So what?

If Arab ambassadors to Iran are invited to a safe demonstration of an Iranian nuke, and are then invited to expel all American military from their territories within 90 days, lest Iran obliterate the American bases, what will oil have to do with it? You saying we’d stay in the Persian Gulf despite the objections of our hosts? Iran already kills Americans with impunity. We do nothing about it.

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 7:47 PM

Nope just pointing out how stupid you sound.

You say Qatar has no oil. i counter it with are you sure?

You say the military is going to feel the blast. AmericanOpinion counters it with hardening of wires due to emp (which has been on… discovery, military channel and other interesting cable shows).

You want to be “Big man on blag” you might want to be able to back up your stupid assumptions since it is obvious you have no clue.

Have a good day. Turfing must be hard.

upinak on September 17, 2009 at 8:00 PM

Got a link to a nerdly discourse about the measurable difference between EMP and sunspots anywhere?

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 7:51 PM

Look up Alaska and Sunspot activity. You might learn something.. the military did. ugh..

upinak on September 17, 2009 at 8:01 PM

US military has been close enough to fission and fusion blasts to feel it in their teeth, and I hadn’t heard its electrical systems ever failed.
Every demonstration of EMP seems to be about as fierce as a hard reboot.

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 6:29 PM

Our military’s hardware can take a full-strength EMP blast? Well goody-goody gosh for them. Glad to hear my tax dollars are going for something besides $9600 wrenches and $640 toilets. Now have you considered for a moment all the hardware that couldn’t withstand an EMP strike…like the vast majority of civilian equipment?!

Imagine the mad mullahs have just lobbed The Bomb over the lower 48 for the EMP effect. Let’s be generous and say 99% of all military electronics are up and working just fine within 24 hours of the initial ‘shock’. Unfortunately, the civilian communication and power networks across most of the continent – including emergency services – has been fried like a piece of bacon on the surface Mercury. Even with the immediate declaration of martial law, we’d be in for mass riots, looting, and such a general degradation of order that we might be in serious danger of a successful strike on our home soil or even a full-scale invasion. And keep in mind that most of our military is chasing shadows of WMD’s and elusive terrorists overseas, and thus unavailable to protect our homeland on short notice.

Dark-Star on September 17, 2009 at 8:07 PM

Fletch54 on September 17, 2009 at 7:58 PM

Only level 6, and have yet to get my courage up to go into what’s left of DC… :p

Fortunata on September 17, 2009 at 8:10 PM

I just saw Michael Sheuer on O’riely and it came up that Obama,s personal views are dictating the direction of the security of the US and he will be accountable for its safety. Very interesting.

royzer on September 17, 2009 at 8:24 PM

Yakko77 on September 17, 2009 at 6:55 PM

Unfortunately, it’s worse than both. It’s #3: He hates the West for having shamed his peopel (the third world) through their success, overachievement and advancement, and is looking for nothing other than to exact revenge on the West. All he wants is to bring pain to the West, harm us as much as possible, and take us down if he is able. Nothing will stop him and he doesn’t care about any second term or anything of the sort.

progressoverpeace on September 17, 2009 at 8:57 PM

I’m going to bed early–this day has been too depressing…

lovingmyUSA on September 17, 2009 at 9:39 PM

So that is why world petroleum is a counter to Iran using atomic warheads on 1980s IRBMs to blackmail the Gulf Arabs into expelling the infidel Yankee: ‘Chris Balsz is a turfer’. So simple!

Chris_Balsz on September 17, 2009 at 9:49 PM

I guess giving the other half of Poland over to the Soviet Uni…er, Russia while letting the Soviet…er, Russians drive tanks through Prague again is Obama’s and Clinton’s idea of a “reset”.

steveegg on September 17, 2009 at 10:16 PM

BHO ain’t worried about nuclear attack or losing the USA’s oil source. We’re going green big time so he’s already got the country heading for the stone age!

chickasaw42 on September 17, 2009 at 10:32 PM

I do get a little (very little) satisfaction that Europe was all gaga for this idiot. I had so many arguments about this with my German friends. Just rewards.

donkichi on September 18, 2009 at 12:47 AM

Oh, that’s just silly. I suppose next they’ll be talking about tons of yellow cake uranium being stockpiled and the like. Obviously, just all lies./sarc

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 18, 2009 at 1:21 AM

It will take us 100 years to undo the damage that Barry has done in 7 months.

MarkTheGreat on September 18, 2009 at 8:39 AM

I hope all you guys who stayed home last Nov. because McCain supported amnesty are happy.

MarkTheGreat on September 18, 2009 at 8:40 AM

I hope all you guys who stayed home last Nov. because McCain supported amnesty are happy.

MarkTheGreat on September 18, 2009 at 8:40 AM

You’re presuming President McCain would not have done something as stupid, as self-righteous and as insane, and that’s a sucker bet.

Chris_Balsz on September 18, 2009 at 8:58 AM

Comment pages: 1 2