Poll: Obama speech “no game changer”
posted at 9:30 am on September 14, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
George Stephanopoulos says that the Wednesday night speech “stopped the slide,” as the Washington Post/ABC poll results show Barack Obama’s speech on Wednesday night mainly flopped. Unfortunately, even with a ridiculous 11-point spread between Democrats and Republicans in the latest poll sample, Obama still can’t get to 50% support on health care leadership, dropped another point from the last poll on the economy, and lost six points between overall approval and disapproval over the last month:
Our new ABC News/Washington Post poll out this morning shows that the President’s joint session speech may have stopped his summer slide, but it doesn’t appear to have been the “game-changer” Democrats were hoping for.
No doubt Obama’s passionate presentation energized his partisans and began to unify Congressional Democrats, but this poll is the best evidence yet of where the public stands – and it demonstrates how difficult it will be for Obama to shape the debate and overcome skepticism about his plan.
Bottom line: right now, voters are almost exactly where they were before the speech.
Big question: will praise of Obama’s speech from moderate Dems (Ben Nelson called it a “game-changer” and President’s meeting with 17 Blue Dogs had a positive vibe) begin to impact public, or will more poll results like this shake the confidence of the Congressional centrists Obama needs?
Big question II: is dropping the public option the game-changer? Olympia Snowe says it’s the only way to get a bill through the Senate, and our poll shows a significant shift in support: from 46-48 to 50-42.
Once again, the entire poll results are skewed by the increasingly ridiculous sampling done by the pollsters. First, in terms of predictive results, it uses the worst possible method, “all adults,” instead of registered or likely voters. Next, the gap between Democrats and Republicans increased by a point from ten to eleven since their mid-August poll. Barack Obama won his presidential election by about seven points, and that was with some GOP crossover support. Does anyone think Democrats gained ground on Republicans over the last month?
Stephanopoulos even hails the skewed samples to claim Republicans (and Democrats) are losing ground with the voters, and that the “Perotistas” might be making a comeback. Try sampling likely voters for that analysis and see what you find. That’s precisely the kind of calculation that the WaPo/ABC methodology can’t determine.
So when Obama improves on health care from 46/40 to 48/48, reducing the Republican component in the sample from 25% to 21% might have something to do with “stopping the slide”. It certainly makes his declines on the economy (52% to 51%) and the federal deficit (41% to 39%, with disapproval going from 53% to 55%) more significant.
What does this poll mean? Given the fact that Obama continues to lose ground even in skewed samples of all adults, it means that he’s getting clobbered among likely voters. The speech didn’t even stop Obama’s slide. At best, it may have slowed his descent a little. That’s not nearly good enough, and it shows that the more Obama appears on TV to angrily repeat the same old slogans, the less people care what he has to say.
Blowback
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“What does this poll mean? Given the fact that Obama continues to lose ground even in skewed samples of all adults, it means that he’s getting clobbered among likely voters. The speech didn’t even stop Obama’s slide. At best, it may have slowed his descent a little.”
–Given Rasmussen’s poll (which seems to confirm the Washington Post’s poll results among voters), I’m not sure this is accurate anymore.
Jimbo3 on September 14, 2009 at 12:13 PM
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My point exactly earlier.I’m just gonna listen to Rush and RELAX!
ohiobabe on September 14, 2009 at 12:23 PM
It came to me this morning that congress has admitted to malfeasance in defending HR 3200. So I wrote the following to my delegation and the president:
The Democratic caucus members, while defending the health care bills and the President’s position, have spoke about the hundreds of billions in savings that can be found in Medicare and Medicaid to offset the cost of HR 3200 and the Senate versions. If this is correct, as many Senators and Representatives have stated in public, then I hold 535 members of congress guilty of malfeasance; no, upon reconsidering, I will lower that number to those who have been in office prior to November 2008 and proclaim they are liberal on social policy.
These programs have been micro-managed by congress for many years, yet whenever there has been an attempt to rein in dubious spending under these programs, those efforts were quashed by those on both sides of the aisle who place purchasing the vote with entitlement inducements over the expectations of the taxpayers to have transparent and efficient government managed programs.
I find it hard to approve of any further involvement of government in my health care when government has a history of not properly managing the programs they now control. And the day of reckoning, now that we know that you have known but did little to stop the hundreds of billions of taxpayers monies that were being usurped by fraudulent entities, will be November, 2010. Shame on you and yours.
amr on September 14, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Rasmussen’s poll showed a 1 percent increase in both support and disapproval of Nationalizing Healthcare. Rasmussen for some reason does not post his margin of error for his poll, but I cannot remember a 1 percent margin of error and I doubt he had the huge sample needed to get a 1 percent margin
Rasmussen does report Obama gained multiple likability points which may be within a typical Rasmussen margin of error
The fact Obama could not translate the normal likability bounce of a Presidential address to the nation (shich shows ‘he cares’) into a net gain on Healthcare shows failure, not success.
Obama should get a likability bounce from wavering crossover voters who voted for him, but now dislike his policies or have lost trust on the economy. Crossovers need reassurance they were not jackasses for voting for the guy.
The Rasmussen poll is very good news for opponents of the Healthcare presentation
entagor on September 14, 2009 at 12:43 PM
The margin of error on Rasmussen’s first healthcare poll in the bunch was +/- 3%, so I’m assuming that’s consistent throughout the bunch. In early August, the numbers he was showing were 42% for and 53% against, so it looks like this change (assuming it continues) is statistically significant.
Jimbo3 on September 14, 2009 at 12:57 PM
I often talk with a very sweet lady on social security and medicare who was a gung ho on Obama supporter
She always gives me prouncements on the state of the nation, whether or not I ask. When Obama got the nomination she told me “I think Obama is going to fix the economy. I am afraid we may be going into a Depression and I am worried about my savings”. From time to time she would pronounce “Thank God we elected Obama because we need jobs” and lately “Obama is going to fix Healthcare”.
Just before Obama’s speech to the Cpngress, she came to tell me she was worried the country is in big trouble. She thought our money would become worthless and then watch out. I started to talk about the last Depression and she interrupted me to say “no I mean I am afraid we will not have any money because we won’t even have a government”
Day after Obama’s speech she caught me
“I think we are in big trouble” I asked if she heard the speech. “Yes, and that Healthcare isn’t going to help at all. Obama isn’t doing anything different”
I am pretty sure she did not hear or care about Joe Wilson. Obama didn’t pull a rabbit out of the hat for her this time.
I could never win her over on politics but Obama managed to scare her with his empty speech
entagor on September 14, 2009 at 1:12 PM
Which is it? Did Obama’s magical words “change the game” or not? I keep seeing to mutually exclusive assertions being made.
Sharr on September 14, 2009 at 1:19 PM
ooops “to” should be “two”.
Sharr on September 14, 2009 at 1:21 PM
If Obama changed the game we would see Congress acting right now to pull the Healthcare out of the hat and hand it over for signature
The reason: Obama has a very small window because regardless of how the economy is analyzed the next year will be worse, not better for the average voter. For every voter who has no health insurance, there is a voter who cherishes his current coverage for survival. They will fight like cornered rats to save their families. A cornered rat is not one to mess with
Congressional fear-sweat is the ultimate barometer and Congress is dropping in it right now. They can see their pampered lifestyles flashing before their eyes if they make the wrong move
Spin created for the public about the speech will not protect their well padded nests and they are behaving as if the speech was not a win
entagor on September 14, 2009 at 1:32 PM
I don’t like the looks of this.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history
Kralizec on September 14, 2009 at 1:34 PM
a day of typos
Congressional fear-sweat is the ultimate barometer and Congress is
droppingdripping in it right nowentagor on September 14, 2009 at 1:34 PM
Obama gained on the personal approval index but broke even on the Healthcare issue, and maybe not even that since he gained 1 point both for and against the Bill, with what someone speculates is a 3 percent margin of error
To me that is a negative for Obama. A speech before Congress, pumped up by the MSM, should create a likability bump because it shows ‘he cares’ and it gives Obama to display the personal charm he used to get elected. IMHO he gets this personality bump with the crossovers who voted for him, and then had doubts. He did not get a huge bump even so because the only place he can move is independents and crossovers. The right and left are fixed
Pollsters (spinners) are positing a trend up on nationalizing healthcare, but Obama is pulling teeth to get there. The real poll is Congress and they are not buying a win at this point.
IMHO Obama is quagmired because people are tapped and he cannot prove he will not cost them bucks. They simply do not believe he can do this without more money from them. He would have a better chance if half the nation was not fearful about losing jobs and homes
Those who haven’t lost jobs or homes are on the brink of credit collapse. One more tax might push them over and they know it
entagor on September 14, 2009 at 1:53 PM
The numbers are still basically 50/50 and that is not good enough to pass a big piece of legislation like this. I think that people will be really pissed when they find out that it is going to cost them money too….but there is no way to poll for that, not really. I am sure a lot of people do not want to believe that Obama would deliberately tell them a lot of bold faced lies, just to get his way..{but he would of course}
Terrye on September 14, 2009 at 3:32 PM
Some backwater outfit called “CNN” is flogging their new “poll”, the internals of which they (as usual) refuse yo divulge. It shows a 5 point bounce in O’bama’s “job approval”.
Del Dolemonte on September 14, 2009 at 4:29 PM
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