Obamateurism of the Day

posted at 8:05 am on September 14, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

This weekend, Barack Obama offered once again an argument he first made in the speech to Congress last Wednesday night, which is that he could realize four trillion dollars in savings “over the long term” from the health care industry by merely reducing the cost growth by one-tenth of one percent each year.  Bear in mind that the entire health-care industry generates $2.3 trillion each year, about a third of it from government funding.  Such a claim stretches the notion of “long term” into something Biblical:

And as I have said over and over again, I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits – period. This plan will be paid for. The middle-class will realize greater security, not higher taxes. And if we can successfully slow the growth of health care costs by just one-tenth of one percent each year, it will actually reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the long term.

On Saturday, when I first featured this, I showed this spreadsheet from my favorite economist, King Banaian, which showed that the long term would have to be defined as 3,634 years:

Since government only accounts for a third of the industry at the moment, that means that only $11 billion over 10 years would go to deficit reduction, assuming that government health-care spending didn’t increase with ObamaCare.  At that rate, it would take longer to realize $4 trillion in deficit savings than all of the years since Moses parted the Red Sea until today.

However, a reader pointed out that King hadn’t accounted for interest savings in his projections.  The reader said that by adding up all of those savings, Obama gets to his $4 trillion much more quickly than Methuselah Time.  King took the challenge and recalculated with a very, very generous assumption of 7% interest, and voila!  It does shorten the time frame:

This does change things quite a bit … but nowhere close to even one trillion dollars, let alone $4 trillion.  In 40 years, roughly the amount of time Moses led the Israelites around the desert, slowing growth 0.1% each year only nets $827 billion across the entire industry, with only a third of that savings by government that might get applied to the deficit.  One third comes to about $292 billion in aggregate savings over 40 years, leaving Obama around $3,708,000,000,000 short of his promise.

So how long would it take to get to $4 trillion if we count interest and compound it?  The good news is that it won’t take 3,634 years.  It would take until 2085, which is still a very, very long time to wait to see whether Obama’s got this right.  And it’s only applicable if the ObamaCare bill (a) actually reduces costs by 0.1% each year, and (b) if Obama doesn’t spend the money on something else.

Oh, and the amount Obama himself will add to the deficit over the next 10 years? Five trillion dollars.

For an administration that claims to value science, they seem to take a faith-based approach to mathematics.

Update: One commenter warns that Obama will keep his promise by adding a whole lot of dimes to the deficit.  It reminded me of this classic cinema moment (Warning: salty language ahead):

If Obama gets his way, we’re gonna have to go back and get a &^%$load of dimes, I tell you.

Got an Obamateurism of the Day? If you see a foul-up by Barack Obama, e-mail it to me at obamaisms@edmorrissey.com with the quote and the link to the Obamateurism. I’ll post the best Obamateurisms on a daily basis, depending on how many I receive. Include a link to your blog, and I’ll give some link love as well. And unlike Slate, I promise to end the feature when Barack Obama leaves office.

Illustrations by Chris Muir of Day by Day. Be sure to read the adventures of Sam, Zed, Damon, and Jan every day!


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

He lies!!…all the time.

becki51758 on September 14, 2009 at 8:07 AM

And as I have said over and over again, I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits – period.

Let me be clear…‘You Lie!’

cmsinaz on September 14, 2009 at 8:08 AM

Math is RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACIST!

wildcat84 on September 14, 2009 at 8:10 AM

$4 trillion. Where did you pull that figure, Mr. President? Your ass?

Disturb the Universe on September 14, 2009 at 8:10 AM

He lies….again.

NeoKong on September 14, 2009 at 8:11 AM

He is not fooling anyone any more. He is the an extremely divisive President.

kingsjester on September 14, 2009 at 8:12 AM

on a long enough time line the mortality rate for any engineering decision reaches 100%….

sven10077 on September 14, 2009 at 8:12 AM

No, no, no. It is true that Dear Leader will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits. He will, however, sign a plan that adds a whole lot of dimes to our deficit.

Either that, or he expects to make money selling lollipop trees.

rbj on September 14, 2009 at 8:13 AM

the
oops

kingsjester on September 14, 2009 at 8:13 AM

For an administration that claims to value science, they seem to take a faith-based approach to mathematics.

God, I hope they don’t check my math!

— Barry

Loxodonta on September 14, 2009 at 8:15 AM

Math is hard.

1921 C DRUM on September 14, 2009 at 8:16 AM

Intentional misrepresentation = lie.

He is a brazen, prolific liar. Seems no lie is too preposterous por cynical for Obama to embrace.

petefrt on September 14, 2009 at 8:16 AM

I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits – period.

Technically this is not a lie. He will sign a bill that more than one dime to the deficit, so the statement is true. He is a lawyer, as you may know.

MikeA on September 14, 2009 at 8:16 AM

For an administration that claims to value science, they seem to take a faith-based approach to mathematics.

Observation of the day.

It seems as if the filthy liar is just putting out numbers without backing them up with concrete evidence that they are legitimately reasonable. We must not let him get away with the PFM accounting method.

highhopes on September 14, 2009 at 8:17 AM

If you factor in the HYPERinflation the one will be creating, it will actually reduce the time frame from 3,600 years to 360.

Don’t be so hard on the poor guy…jeesh!

singlemalt_18 on September 14, 2009 at 8:17 AM

Wow, where to begin…our President is a professional liar.

For all of you who were is Washington DC this weekend. Way to GO!! You all are awesome and I only wish that I could have been there. I watched from the bed due to back problems and was inspired by everyone!!! True Americans!!!!

milwife88 on September 14, 2009 at 8:19 AM

Disturb the Universe on September 14, 2009 at 8:10 AM

It came to him in a moment of consideration that no one was listening to the facts anyway, so what difference did it make what numbers he used.

MikeA on September 14, 2009 at 8:19 AM

rbj on September 14, 2009 at 8:13 AM
MikeA on September 14, 2009 at 8:16 AM

duly noted

cmsinaz on September 14, 2009 at 8:20 AM

Charlie Rangel is doing the books

Haunches on September 14, 2009 at 8:21 AM

Let’s keep the DC tea party chant going: You lie! You lie! You lie! You lie! (It was so awesome marching toward the Capitol hearing “tens of thousands” of people chanting this in unison!)

Christian Conservative on September 14, 2009 at 8:22 AM

Ed, you’re gonna upset AP with all this Bible talk.

boomer on September 14, 2009 at 8:23 AM

DRUDGE

BREAKING NEWS…

Kanye Wizzle appointed new “Green Jobs Czar”…
Kumar and Kanye said to be ‘blunt-side’ cogitatin’ some new numbers… will ‘testify’ later, with ‘no signifyin’, just ‘straight-up representin’… more to follow..

Doorgunner on September 14, 2009 at 8:26 AM

Wow, I just wish he had been one of my algebra professors in college, I probably would have graduated with honors! Better yet, I wish he were my accountant….he’s amazing with numbers….working magic, he is!

atlgal on September 14, 2009 at 8:26 AM

O/T but on target…

Third Video-more ACORN corruption.

How many more are they?

Papa Ray on September 14, 2009 at 8:27 AM

Now we finally see why the teachers changed the way math was being taught in the schools. 2+2= blue which makes me think of the ocean is exactly the kind of math Obama is using.

myrenovations on September 14, 2009 at 8:27 AM

1+2=4 trillion i be god at maff.

SHARPTOOTH on September 14, 2009 at 8:28 AM

Papa Ray on September 14, 2009 at 8:27 AM

Fox news this morning said that these three are a part of a long list and videos will be released one at a time.
Pass the popcorn!

milwife88 on September 14, 2009 at 8:28 AM

boomer on September 14, 2009 at 8:23 AM

:-)
was just thinking that the kool aid drinkers are still searching for their land that is flowing with milk and honey (gas and mortgage payments)
/s

cmsinaz on September 14, 2009 at 8:28 AM

Fox news this morning said that these three are a part of a long list and videos will be released one at a time.
Pass the popcorn!

milwife88 on September 14, 2009 at 8:28 AM

Drip….Drip…..Drip….. So much more effective in bringing down this corrupt organization than if it all comes to the surface at once. Here’s hoping the scandal can bring down much of the liberal establishment and the filthy liar in the White House too.

highhopes on September 14, 2009 at 8:31 AM

And what exactly is the “long term”? How about some details?

ctmom on September 14, 2009 at 8:32 AM

It is vital the the American people know about this

Didn’t Sixty Minutes cover all of this?

Where is Couric and Gibson when we need them?

BTW how exactly is the present healthcare system going to wreck the economy? I can see how this nonsense might…

IlikedAUH2O on September 14, 2009 at 8:33 AM

…but I have faith that He can wreck it long before this matters.

IlikedAUH2O on September 14, 2009 at 8:35 AM

Math is RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACIST!

wildcat84 on September 14, 2009 at 8:10 AM

That announcement is going to make a lot of schoochildren happy!

Shy Guy on September 14, 2009 at 8:35 AM

Obamacare = 4 trillion dollars saved or created.

ICBM on September 14, 2009 at 8:39 AM

roughly the amount of time Moses led the Israelites around the desert

Don’t freak out Allah. He’ll give you your own headline and try to diminish you for referencing such blatant crap. Any biblical historical reference should be belittled and crushed because, somehow, that helps the cause.

Haunches on September 14, 2009 at 8:42 AM

I know math is difficult, but bringing down the economic system is a lot harder when you you think the rest of the folks are as math challenged as you are.

BetseyRoss on September 14, 2009 at 8:43 AM

Howard Dean said that with Obamacare, healthcare can be reduced from 17% of the GDP, to 10%.

How?

Oh yea…rationing care…

ladyingray on September 14, 2009 at 8:44 AM

Thanks for the laugh Ed!!:) Another one is when they are sitting around the campfire after eating beans and all the hot air goin’ on,reminds me of o and the dems:)

ohiobabe on September 14, 2009 at 8:44 AM

To be honest, I don’t understand either of these charts. However, I don’t think Ed has ever intentionally lied to me in the past, (unlike Barry)…so I’ll take Ed’s word that this is all true.

BTW, I’m still wondering if Barry and congress will apologize to Joe Wilson.

Barb Dwyer on September 14, 2009 at 8:45 AM

Has Obama ever told a truth in his life? Just wondering…

mz.josephine on September 14, 2009 at 8:46 AM

BTW, I’m still wondering if Barry and congress will apologize to Joe Wilson.

Barb Dwyer on September 14, 2009 at 8:45 AM

That’s a joke, right? Has Obama ever apologized to anyone for anything?

jwolf on September 14, 2009 at 8:47 AM

…but I have faith that He can wreck it long before this matters.

IlikedAUH2O on September 14, 2009 at 8:35 AM
//////
The more he throws these lies out there,the more he shows that he doesn’t have a clue and surely the rest of the knotheads will START waking up!

ohiobabe on September 14, 2009 at 8:48 AM

That’s a joke, right? Has Obama ever apologized to anyone for anything?

jwolf on September 14, 2009 at 8:47 AM

he’s apologized to every country in the world for our “arrogance”..

SouperConservative on September 14, 2009 at 8:49 AM

here is all the math we need to know: obama didn’t see any crowds in DC this weekend: zero. so extrapolate from there on how obamacare will be deficit neutral.

in fact, i bet obamacare will be a moneymaker!

kelley in virginia on September 14, 2009 at 8:49 AM

jwolf on September 14, 2009 at 8:47 AM

Well, I’m not holding my breath. But even a little teeny, tiny bit of honesty would go a long way in this administration.

Barb Dwyer on September 14, 2009 at 8:51 AM

assuming that government health-care spending didn’t increase with ObamaCare.

According to the CBO, this assumption has a pale full of holes…..

Rovin on September 14, 2009 at 8:53 AM

No, no, no. It is true that Dear Leader will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits. He will, however, sign a plan that adds a whole lot of dimes to our deficit.

Either that, or he expects to make money selling lollipop trees.

rbj on September 14, 2009 at 8:13 AM

Specifically, 10 trillion dimes.

steveegg on September 14, 2009 at 8:54 AM

That’s a joke, right? Has Obama ever apologized to anyone for anything?

jwolf on September 14, 2009 at 8:47 AM
///////
About like s/williams apolgized for her tirade at the U.S.open,disgraceful.

ohiobabe on September 14, 2009 at 8:55 AM

He has to lie. Communism has failed every time and when you examine it the reasons why are evident.

Haunches on September 14, 2009 at 8:55 AM

Lies, damn lies, and ObamaMath.

TXUS on September 14, 2009 at 8:57 AM

Ed, you’re gonna upset AP with all this Bible talk.

boomer on September 14, 2009 at 8:23 AM

When did Hot Air pass restrictions on praying for AP’s soul?

Rovin on September 14, 2009 at 8:57 AM

Is there anyone out there who still believes this imbecile?

mr.blacksheep on September 14, 2009 at 8:58 AM

Big Rock Candy Mountain.

Lincoln Cadillac on September 14, 2009 at 9:01 AM

Re Obama “apologizing”:

Sure, he apologized to the world, for things he said other people did. Has he ever personally apologized for his own action, ever? Even once?

jwolf on September 14, 2009 at 9:03 AM

So how long would it take to get to $4 trillion if we count interest and compound it? The good news is that it won’t take 3,634 years. It would take until 2085, which is still a very, very long time to wait to see whether Obama’s got this right. And it’s only applicable if the ObamaCare bill (a) actually reduces costs by 0.1% each year, and (b) if Obama doesn’t spend the money on something else.

Which, coincidentally, ties back to Social Security. Even the “interest” earned by the “trust fund” plowed right back into the Treasury to be spent.

steveegg on September 14, 2009 at 9:04 AM

He did say he was going to be president for a long time.

pappy on September 14, 2009 at 9:04 AM

Does anyone now wonder why BHO doesn’t want his college records released?

TimBuk3 on September 14, 2009 at 9:08 AM

Sure, he apologized to the world, for things he said other people did. Has he ever personally apologized for his own action, ever? Even once?

jwolf on September 14, 2009 at 9:03 AM

Never! Not even once that I can recall. I’d probably faint if he did.

Barb Dwyer on September 14, 2009 at 9:08 AM

The horse has turned to dust, but I keep beating it…
Would that we had an honest, responsible MSM to shine a light on the lies, distortions and dirty dealings of this administration.

SKYFOX on September 14, 2009 at 9:09 AM

This plan will be paid for.–BHO

…by our children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren…

itsnotaboutme on September 14, 2009 at 9:09 AM

What’s not figured into his total, is the income he’s going to realize from the pimps and hookers he has installed into his communities; His “Creative Arts Czar” shall be taxing them using the Geithner/Rangel Tax Preparation software.
That should put him over the top!

Cybergeezer on September 14, 2009 at 9:18 AM

Don’t argue with me! It’s all mystical and magical prophecy of Teh One.

Cybergeezer on September 14, 2009 at 9:22 AM

Cybergeezer on September 14, 2009 at 9:18 AM

Well, that’s not gonna happen! According to the latest video from James and Hannah, the Brooklyn office of ACORN has suggested that hookers and pimps bury their money in a “tin” in the backyard. Barry’s gonna need a “Shovel Czar” to retrieve any tax money.

Barb Dwyer on September 14, 2009 at 9:29 AM

Thursday is bring-your-own-housefly to ComCast Center;

U-Maryland: Obama coming back to campus

President Barack Obama will hold a rally on the campus Thursday to build support for health care reform.

The appearance, Obama’s third at the university since 2006, is expected to be held in the Comcast Center from noon to 1 p.m. and is part of an attempt by the Obama administration to reshape the conversation about the controversial health care legislation working its way through Congress… The rally is free and open to the public… Both of Obama’s earlier university appearances were feel-good affairs before largely friendly crowds. But Obama’s recent appearances throughout the country have drawn heavy protests by conservative groups who accuse the president of spreading socialism. Some protesters have been videotaped using racist language or carrying loaded guns.

While protesters are expected to gather, Williams said it is too early to speculate what type of crowd will actually attend.

Terp Mole on September 14, 2009 at 9:30 AM

Guess he thinks we all got a public school education and didn’t study enough math. Damn calculator, must have been made in China.

Kissmygrits on September 14, 2009 at 9:46 AM

Ummm. I would have to say!, What Joe Wilson says. : )

hawkman on September 14, 2009 at 10:05 AM

I noticed this all over the alphabets last night. Thank goodness we have a hard hitting, fact checking news media.

jukin on September 14, 2009 at 10:07 AM

Somebody’s gotta go back and
get a shitload of dimes

I forget how Hollywierd is always ahead of the curve when it comes to true political commentary. /SS

OkieDoc on September 14, 2009 at 10:22 AM

By 2085, Obama will be 124 years old (older than Moses at his death). Except if some EEEEEEEVIL Republican on an end-of-life counseling committee pulls the plug on the Six Trillion Dollar Man to save Medicare in the meantime.

But who needs math when you’ve got a Magic Wand?

Steve Z on September 14, 2009 at 10:23 AM

“Stop counting trillions, you stupid Republicans. People are dying. We have to care for them no matter what the cost. Just do it.”

I’m thinking this is Obama’s speech come November when they are all still bickering over this. Based on this admin’s/Congress’s various plans, the status quo is looking better and better.

Amateur is no longer descriptive enough. What’s below amateur?

gopmom on September 14, 2009 at 11:18 AM

If Obama gets his way, we’re gonna have to go back and get a &^%$load of dimes, I tell you.

Great idea! Put up a toll booth leading into the House, Senate and WH. Then they can’t enter unless they cough up some of their OWN money for a change. Getting back out again is free, however.

And where’s Mongo when you really need him?

DrAllecon on September 14, 2009 at 12:15 PM

Let the average American try this Obama Communist math when reporting income, payroll, capital gains etc. and they will end up in the federal prison. This is what galls the tax protesters! They must be taxed with real math and Congress spends with the Liar-in-chiefs numbers. As businesses and citizens go bankrupt in record numbers they are absolutely hassled to death by local, state, and federal tax collectors demanding revenue that is no longer there! They go ape and don’t believe everyone is laid off, no sales=no sales tax, etc! It’s like trying to get rid of a malignant cancer to escape the clutches of tax collectors! No wonder everyone is ticked off at this Kenyan, Communist, Liar,Racist,Narcissist, Weasel!

Marco on September 14, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Here’s a good visual on what the healthcare bill’s real impact looks like. Of course, these are based on the bill circulating over the summer, but gives a good idea what we’re up against in considering national health care.

Anyway they try to sell it, it doesn’t look good.

DeoGratias on September 14, 2009 at 12:41 PM

There is one clear, obvious, logical result of this post:

Math is racist

dcman98 on September 14, 2009 at 1:56 PM

Amateur is no longer descriptive enough. What’s below amateur?

gopmom on September 14, 2009

Mrs. Obama, at times.

SKYFOX on September 14, 2009 at 3:03 PM

Mrs. Obama, at times.

SKYFOX on September 14, 2009 at 3:03 PM

Aaaaackkkk!!!

My mental eyes!!! Where’s the bleach??

jana on September 14, 2009 at 3:14 PM

I’m confused. Haven’t the MSM assured us that any attempt to cut the rate of growth was “funding cut”?

Or is that applicable only when Republicans are President?

schmuck281 on September 15, 2009 at 5:05 AM