Rasmussen: Democrats at lowest point in generic-ballot polling in years

posted at 5:15 pm on September 1, 2009 by Allahpundit

Smells like this is being driven more by anti-incumbency fever than anti-Democratic fever, but we’ll take it any way we can get it. Throw the bums out:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

That represents the lowest level of support for Democrats in recent years, while Republicans have tied their highest level of support for the third straight week. The previous low for Democrats over the past year was 37%…

Throughout the summer of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 45% to 48%. Republican support ranged from 34% to 37%…

If Americans could vote to keep or replace the entire Congress, 57% would throw out all the legislators and start over again. Just 25% would vote to keep the Congress.

Even better: Per Ace, the latest PPP poll shows that the GOP leads 45/41 overall but 50/14 among voters who say they’re unhappy with both parties. The number who say they’d vote to reelect their congressman is just 47 percent. Is that enough to win back the House next year? Maybe not. Is it enough to make the Blue Dogs sweat even more about ObamaCare than they already are? You betcha.

Not a fan of generic-ballot polling? No problem. According to Nate Silver, historically there’s been a linear relationship between a president’s approval rating at the time of the midterms and the number of seats lost by his party. A 50 percent approval typically translates into a 26-seat pickup by the minority party; a 40-seat pickup, which is what the GOP would need to retake the House, would require a rating of around 42 percent. (As for 2012, anything north of 45 percent for an incumbent president would probably mean reelection.) Aside from Zogby’s outlier last night, The One’s still safely north of 42 percent, but the trends are not in his favor. Current split among independents, per the CNN poll released this afternoon: 43/53, the first time he’s ever been in negative territory among that group. Change has come to America, my friends.


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short change

moonbatkiller on September 1, 2009 at 5:17 PM

14 months is a long time away…..anything could happen to turn these numbers either up or down.

tatersalad on September 1, 2009 at 5:18 PM

Smells like this is being driven more by anti-incumbency fever than anti-Democratic fever,

In seven months?

Vashta.Nerada on September 1, 2009 at 5:19 PM

Smells like this is being driven more by anti-incumbency fever than anti-Democratic fever, but we’ll take it any way we can get it.

Yeah, but since the Dems control everything by a large margin, doesn’t it mean the same thing?

AUINSC on September 1, 2009 at 5:20 PM

Vote the bums out!

Scratching the Democratic itch screws the country every time.

Hening on September 1, 2009 at 5:21 PM

What goes around, comes around.

{smirk}

Terrye on September 1, 2009 at 5:21 PM

Either way..don’t want to rain on this fun…it’s the trend that matters anyway. Obama has, so far, been unable to even stop the slide, much less reverse it…and he’s not inclined to do anything that will stop it. w00t!

AUINSC on September 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM

Familiarity breeds contempt.

MB4 on September 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM

I love you Allah. We will win.

TXMomof3 on September 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM

May there be no vaccine\medicine for anti-incumbency fever. I would throw GOP bums if it did mean electing bigger government pols. Throw’m out every 6 years or so.

WashJeff on September 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM

tea parties are getting the masses informed and involved.

VTWaldrup on September 1, 2009 at 5:22 PM

This is all good news, but the elections are 14 months away…time is not on our side.

Jim-Rose on September 1, 2009 at 5:23 PM

I just wish the Financial collapse would’ve waited 6 more months to occur, politically speaking

jp on September 1, 2009 at 5:23 PM

Then we should do what the donks, MSM, and vichy GOPers say to do and stop our grass roots cmpaigns that are screwing the party over.

jukin on September 1, 2009 at 5:24 PM

This is all good news, but the elections are 14 months away…time is not on our side.

Jim-Rose on September 1, 2009 at 5:23 PM

The time to use grassroots to stop socialism is now. Next spring and summer, congress will be too afraid of the election to push legislation. In the fall, remind the voters of what they tried to pass in the summer of 2009.

Vashta.Nerada on September 1, 2009 at 5:25 PM

Smells like this is being driven more by anti-incumbency fever than anti-Democratic fever…

So when will federal politicians intrepret this mood as we want less government. I would contend that the anti-incumbency fever of 2006 was also driven by a dislike for large federal government. Unfortuantely, there is no outlet for this thinking to express itself.

WashJeff on September 1, 2009 at 5:25 PM

The perfect song to accompany this post.

JammieWearingFool on September 1, 2009 at 5:26 PM

Can’t wait to flush the incumbent toilet in both houses and the presidency.

Then we can get to the business of smashing socialist heads in the coming civil war.

The tangential question is; can we avoid a race war at the same time? Maybe not, Van Jones.

Spiritk9 on September 1, 2009 at 5:26 PM

I predict that the gop will take back the house and will have 46 in the senate

Jacob Hammond on September 1, 2009 at 5:26 PM

The internals don’t fly on that CNN poll.

Over-inflated Dem sample.

Shocking, I know.

artist on September 1, 2009 at 5:27 PM

40-seat pickup, which is what the GOP would need to retake the House, would require a rating of around 42 percent.

We have more than a year to bring him below that level.

As for 2012, anything north of 45 percent for an incumbent president would probably mean reelection

We have more than three years to work on that also. I’m sure he’ll bounce back somehow, but if someone shows some leadership, we can sink his battleship.

If it bleeds, we can kill it

El_Terrible on September 1, 2009 at 5:27 PM

I think the GOP was +5 in 1994.

This poll shows +7.

Just sayin.

artist on September 1, 2009 at 5:27 PM

JammieWearingFool on September 1, 2009 at 5:26 PM

I never used to like that song but ive grown to love it

Jacob Hammond on September 1, 2009 at 5:29 PM

You know why? Because the GOP needs to
Shut
the
F8ck
Up

Keep low, no one wants to hear a pubbie speak, and it’s working brilliantly. Let the grassroots do the walking.

Apologetic California on September 1, 2009 at 5:30 PM

LOL

WisCon on September 1, 2009 at 5:32 PM

Sweeter and sweeter by the day…unless you’re counting the massive debt being accumulated and the crap my little ones are going to reap when they are older, no fault of theirs.

But, yeah. This feels good.

Mommypundit on September 1, 2009 at 5:33 PM

I never liked political polls…

… they can be manipulated too easily.

Act as if the numbers are reversed, and keep the pressure on these a%s-clowns…

Seven Percent Solution on September 1, 2009 at 5:34 PM

only poll that matters is election night in 2010….the ACORNs and cadavers will be out in force….

we meet at dawn

sven10077 on September 1, 2009 at 5:39 PM

O BAM A
O BAM A
O BAM A

Good Lt on September 1, 2009 at 5:41 PM

You know why? Because the GOP needs to
Shut
the
F8ck
Up

Keep low, no one wants to hear a pubbie speak, and it’s working brilliantly. Let the grassroots do the walking.

This is the thread winnar.

Good Lt on September 1, 2009 at 5:42 PM

I just wish the Financial collapse would’ve waited 6 more months to occur, politically speaking

jp on September 1, 2009 at 5:23 PM

We would be waking up with President McCain and VP Palin.

tjexcite on September 1, 2009 at 5:43 PM

You know what we need now?

Republicans coming out and saying how important “crossing the aisle” and “working with the other side” is.

Cuz, that’ll fire up the base for 2010.

lorien1973 on September 1, 2009 at 5:44 PM

2010? 2012? There will be no elections in 2010 or 2012.

Elections… are you people smoking crack?

CC

CapedConservative on September 1, 2009 at 5:44 PM

All that’s needed is a coherent, cheap, targeted plan from the funny pants club that is the GOP DC establishment (if there is such a thing).

Now get to work, you idiots.

Good Lt on September 1, 2009 at 5:45 PM

This is an increasingly polarized and tense society. But it is also true that Chavez must rely extensively on force and deception to promote his socialist project. His personal popularity has sunk under 50 percent in recent weeks (support for his policies are even lower) and he is becoming more radical.

replace the word Chavez with the word Obama and…hmmmmmm

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/05/29/we-dont-want-venezuela-to-become-a-totalitarian-communist-state/

elduende on September 1, 2009 at 5:45 PM

I say hit the reset button and start over with an entirely new Congress. We might lose a couple good ones that way, but it’s worth it.

Daggett on September 1, 2009 at 5:46 PM

This is all good news, but the elections are 14 months away…time is not on our side.

Jim-Rose on September 1, 2009 at 5:23 PM

With economists predicting unemployment will continue to rise in 2010, and economic growth looking flat, or sluggish at best, in 2010, time may be very much on our side.

As Serpent-head Carville used to say, “It’s the economy, stupid.” (Even more true now than when he first coined the phrase).

AZCoyote on September 1, 2009 at 5:49 PM

Throw’m out every 6 years or so.
WashJeff on September 1, 2009

That’s the closest we will ever get to term limits, a voter enforced limit. But that will never happen either…oh well.

My dream would be to have term limits and the fair tax act signed in to law. Then it would be say goodbye to socialism and hello to real freedom.

Goodeye_Closed on September 1, 2009 at 5:52 PM

The trend is neither Obama’s nor the Democrats’ friend.

steveegg on September 1, 2009 at 5:54 PM

If these numbers hold or worsen for Obama and the Ds come next Spring or so, as I suspect they will since there’s no way their porkulous or money printing can make the economy better, brace yourself.

There will be an event or crisis of some kind, maybe more than one, that will be a game changer.

Soros and his powder monkeys on the Hill and at 1600 need at least four years, preferrably eight, to bring our ship down.

Just sayin’.

TXUS on September 1, 2009 at 5:55 PM

The American public gets tired of the ‘smaller government / low taxes / less spending’ message we Conservatives preach..until they try a liberal in the White House for a few years. It doesn’t take them long to remember why Conservatives make the best Presidents.

DrW on September 1, 2009 at 5:55 PM

It’s like Ann Coulter said, the Republicans need to play just as dirty as the Democrats do. History shows that getting a good dose of their own medicine makes them a little more circumspect.

ncborn on September 1, 2009 at 5:56 PM

The voters threw out Republicans because they became Democrats.
They will throw out Democrats because they ARE Democrats.

kurtzz3 on September 1, 2009 at 5:59 PM

It’s like Ann Coulter said, the Republicans need to play just as dirty as the Democrats do. History shows that getting a good dose of their own medicine makes them a little more circumspect.

ncborn on September 1, 2009 at 5:56 PM

Oops! Wrong thread. I thought I was still on Senator Gregg going nuclear. Still sounds good though, doesn’t it?

ncborn on September 1, 2009 at 6:00 PM

I hope he’s not “valleying” too early. 14 months and 3 years is a long time. After 2008, wouldn’t be unbelievable that we are talking about GOP congress and 2010 and 2012 and say Madame POUTS Palin in 2012?!!

davek70 on September 1, 2009 at 6:01 PM

hope he’s not “valleying” too early. 14 months and 3 years is a long time. After 2008, wouldn’t be unbelievable that we are talking about GOP congress and 2010 and 2012 and say Madame POUTS POTUS Palin in 2012?!!

davek70 on September 1, 2009 at 6:01 PM

..FIFY. It would be the Dems who would be doing the POUTing.

VoyskaPVO on September 1, 2009 at 6:06 PM

davek70 on September 1, 2009 at 6:01 PM

He might be hitting the trough early…but there are a few more builtin hits coming…they are going to kick him in the crotch no matter what. April 15th, 2010 will be a biggie…that’s when all the suckers who got the Obama “tax break that’s really just a loan” get to write a check to the IRS to give their tax break back. That will kill him.

There are several other ‘probable’ ticking bombs tied around his neck too…all in all, this is a good start.

AUINSC on September 1, 2009 at 6:09 PM

I never get called,dang it!

ohiobabe on September 1, 2009 at 6:09 PM

This is all good news, but the elections are 14 months away…time is not on our side.

Jim-Rose on September 1, 2009 at 5:23 PM

I disagree 100%. Time is on our side, as things will only get worse. See market-ticker.org or similar sites for things to come.

The GOP advantage might be 7% today, but it could easily be 14%+ in November 2008. I am actually glad the mid-terms are 14 months away, the chances for a GOP takeover will be much higher then.

Norwegian on September 1, 2009 at 6:13 PM

Typo: November 2010 of cuz

Norwegian on September 1, 2009 at 6:13 PM

Looks like the American people are becoming fed up with the bullshit. Used to be that “incumbent” next to your name on a ballot was a ‘sure thing’ for re-election. Now it’s like the GodFather’s kiss of death.

GarandFan on September 1, 2009 at 6:14 PM

14 months is a long time away…..anything could happen to turn these numbers either up or down.tatersalad on September 1, 2009 at 5:18 PM

Oh sure. Sometime between now and then The Thug In Chief will start telling the truth and stop acting like a teenager. And someone will figure out a way for socialism to work.

Basilsbest on September 1, 2009 at 6:15 PM

This is all good news, but the elections are 14 months away…time is not on our side.

Jim-Rose on September 1, 2009 at 5:23 PM

With economists predicting unemployment will continue to rise in 2010, and economic growth looking flat, or sluggish at best, in 2010, time may be very much on our side.

As Serpent-head Carville used to say, “It’s the economy, stupid.” (Even more true now than when he first coined the phrase).

AZCoyote on September 1, 2009 at 5:49 PM

Beat me to it AZCoyote. We aren’t even close to getting out of the woods. November 2010 might be just about right.

Wilbur on September 1, 2009 at 6:16 PM

Looks like the American people are becoming fed up with the bullshit. Used to be that “incumbent” next to your name on a ballot was a ’sure thing’ for re-election. Now it’s like the GodFather’s kiss of death.

GarandFan on September 1, 2009 at 6:14 PM

LOL

Wilbur on September 1, 2009 at 6:17 PM

Barry’s such a crybaby tool, I wouldn’t be surprised if he threw his toys down and refused to be president anymore.

(Not that he’d give up the White house digs or Airforce One or anything like that…)

anniekc on September 1, 2009 at 6:17 PM

As long as we don’t listen to the wussies on the right that claim we need to become more measured in our approach.
People are ANGRY! Feed off of that emotion, bring it to a fever pitch, and you’ll open a lot of eyes.

Otherwise we’re back to playing on the typical LOSER Republican team.

Jeff from WI on September 1, 2009 at 6:18 PM

I never get called,dang it!

ohiobabe on September 1, 2009 at 6:09 PM

Your phone is off the hook.

whitetop on September 1, 2009 at 6:21 PM

Now that people are finally starting to realize that we have to get rid of ALL of the incumbents; they have to be convinced to do it TWICE.
TWO CYCLES–NO INCUMBENTS–EVERY OFFICE
It is time for the government to be afraid of the people,not people afraid of government.TWO CYCLES.
Don’t tell them,show them that “those who give can take away”—and WILL.

DDT on September 1, 2009 at 6:24 PM

I never get called,dang it!

ohiobabe on September 1, 2009 at 6:09 PM

Your phone is off the hook.

whitetop on September 1, 2009 at 6:21 PM

They called me to get your number. They’ll be calling you soon.

Jeff from WI on September 1, 2009 at 6:25 PM

On Election Day 2008, according to Rasmussen, Democrats led the generic ballot 47%-41%. Now Republicans lead 43%-36%.

Republicans have picked up a gee-whiz 2% since Election Day, but Democrats have lost 11%. If this holds until Election Day 2010 (a big if), lots of Independents who voted Democrat last year will stay home next year, and Republicans can win a low-turnout election. If the current “undecided” stay home, Republicans would win the non-abstainers 54-46%.

What really counts are the swing districts. How many Democrats won their seats by less than 6% last year? A TIE in the generic vote would probably sweep them out. Rasmussen’s current numbers represent a net swing of 13%, meaning that most Democrats who won by less than 13% would lose re-election, unless the Republican candidate was unusually weak or the Democrat incumbent was very strong. But most of the swing districts are occupied by freshman (2008) or sophomore (2006) Democrats, and a reasonably strong Republican could oust them in a “wave” election.

Which puts the Blue Dogs in a tough spot…if they behave like a “generic” Democrat and vote for ObamaCare and Cap and Trade, they’re out–if they try to be centrist and attract GOP voters, the base might not turn out for them.
This might be enough to scare the Blue Dogs into voting against ObamaCare, or enough for the Republicans to re-take the House. Or both.

Right now the swing is more anti-Democrat than pro-Republican, so the Republican challengers need to come up with a solid, no-nonsense, pro-taxpayer, pro-free-market, pro-jobs, pro-energy, pro-national-security conservative platform to run on, and then “git ‘er done” once they get the majority.

Contract With America 2.0?

Steve Z on September 1, 2009 at 6:28 PM

a false flag operation will occur in sept or oct of 2010

unseen on September 1, 2009 at 6:28 PM

How low can you go, baby!

Cybergeezer on September 1, 2009 at 6:40 PM

The Dems suffer from classic ‘Victory Disease’. Now it is up to us on the right to avoid the infection.

Limerick on September 1, 2009 at 6:42 PM

This only bodes well for the GOP if they stay on message. Otherwise, the protest voters/stay-at-homers will deliver, yet again, another Dem. victory.

Connie on September 1, 2009 at 7:18 PM

The Trend – The Trend is your friend, my friend.

Ogabe on September 1, 2009 at 7:25 PM

As long as we don’t listen to the wussies on the right that claim we need to become more measured in our approach.
People are ANGRY! Feed off of that emotion, bring it to a fever pitch, and you’ll open a lot of eyes.

Otherwise we’re back to playing on the typical LOSER Republican team.

Jeff from WI on September 1, 2009 at 6:18 PM

And tell the Juan and Mega-Butt McCains to ‘Sit down and shut up!’

Ogabe on September 1, 2009 at 7:33 PM

“They’ve lost that lovin’ feeling…..now it’s gone…gone…gone….ohhhhh.a.ohhhhh”!

joe btfsplk on September 1, 2009 at 7:33 PM

And then of course there are the major wild cards?

A major terrorist attack (which I feel is an invevitability BTW) by Muslims, while the border remains open, our DHS is intent on investigating everybody BUT Islamic whackos, and oh yes, he wants to read Miranda rights to terrorist scum and conduct an inquisition against CIA interrogaters who are just trying to do their job, and his presidency is toast!

If this happens before the 2010 elections then not just the HOuse, but the Senate may even be in play for the GOP. IF it happens before the 2012 elections, in time for the majority (or much stronger minority) GOP to push for investigations into the staggaring incompetence of this administration in its fundamental duty of protecting the borders and citizenry of this nation, then Obama either resigns for “health reasons” or faces a Mondale/Reagan blowout in 2012.

The left has done their best to bury the past, ignore radical Islam, close thier eyes and hope it goes away. One major terror act, smoking wreckage and thousands of murdered Americans and, even all the media spin the world will not be able to stop the rage of the American people, even those who were stupid enough to fall for the Obama charade last year, and are regretting that vote now.

Teacher in Tejas on September 1, 2009 at 7:36 PM

Olympia snowe
this is off topic but it has to be posted here. She is going to cave and side with the libs on healthcare. Burn her phones at her offices. Pick a zip code or a town in Maine, call her office saying you represent a group of seniors and let her know she’s out if she votes with the libs. Better yet, take a page out of alinskys rules for radicals and say your moderate democrats against the bill. Stop her now before she caves! Call now!!

texaninfidel on September 1, 2009 at 8:30 PM

The Democrats increased their hold on Congress by getting the Obamedia to pretend the Republicans still ran Congress in 2006-8.

Is it any shock then that the American people are unhappy that when they thought they voted the bums out it only got worse?

18-1 on September 1, 2009 at 8:56 PM

Barack Obama — Democrat Anchor

29Victor on September 1, 2009 at 9:14 PM

The Democrats increased their hold on Congress by getting the Obamedia to pretend the Republicans still ran Congress in 2006-8.

18-1 on September 1, 2009 at 8:56 PM

Ain’t that the truth. Ignorance works well for any political party.

Dr. ZhivBlago on September 2, 2009 at 12:28 AM

A 50 percent approval typically translates into a 26-seat pickup by the minority party; a 40-seat pickup, which is what the GOP would need to retake the House, would require a rating of around 42 percent

At the rate Obama is tanking, a Republican SWEEP is likely then.

Christian Conservative on September 2, 2009 at 10:47 AM