Pollster: Obama slide no fluke
posted at 12:17 pm on August 28, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
A new national poll shows Barack Obama under 50% on overall job-approval rating among registered voters, and it’s not Rasmussen this time. Clarus conducted a survey of 1,000 voters last week and found Obama at 49%, and sliding badly among independents (via Jim Geraghty). On health care, Obama has almost a majority disapproving, 49%-38%, which has driven his overall numbers downward. On health care, the age of voters doesn’t matter at all; 48% of those under 45 disapprove, and 49% over 45 disapprove.
Independents have a decidedly mixed view of Obama:
- 86% think Obama is “very intelligent”
- 77% think he will raise taxes as a result of his spending
- 69% think he’s trying to do too much, too fast
- 64% think Obama wants too much government involvement
- 61% think Obama spends too much money
- only 34% believe he will keep all of his promises
Overall, Obama gets a 43% job-approval rating from independents. Forty-five percent disapprove of his performance on the economy, a lower number than Rasmussen has found of late, but higher than the 41% who approve. They also believe he is doing worse than they expected by a small plurality, 24% to 13% who say better, with the rest unsure or saying that he meets their expectations.
However, Obama still bests all of the predicted Republican challengers for 2012. Mitt Romney does best, keeping Obama at 47% to his 38%. Mike Huckabee almost duplicates the spread, 48%-38% for Obama, and does slightly better with minority voters. Obama wins clear majorities when paired with Sarah Palin (53%-34%) and Newt Gingrich (53%-34%). Only Huckabee wins independents, though, by a single point.
Clarus presents this analysis of Obama’s performance:
President Obama’s sliding job rating is real and not just a temporary blip. His numbers have gradually eroded since May. In this survey, he’s dipped slightly below 50% on overall approval and slightly below 40% on handling health care, which is dragging him down. …
Troubling for Obama is his standing among independents. His overall approval number among this critical swing constituency is 43%. In 2008, he beat John McCain among independents 52-44%. Independents think Obama is intelligent, honest and truthful, and many still see him as a strong leader, but large majorities think he’s trying to do too much too fast, spending too much, growing government too much, and likely to raise taxes.
Clarus believes the next 90 days will be critical for Obama, but this year may be a wash. Obama will have to plan his legislative agenda more carefully in 2010 with an eye on the midterms. He may do best by letting both ObamaCare and cap-and-tax wither, and focus his energy on immigration reform, which holds more promise for a split among Republicans rather than Democrats. Even so, he will have to contend with Blue Dogs, who represent districts opposed to amnesty programs.
Blowback
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For a variety of reasons, Obama started the campaign on third base. The only problem is he thinks he made a triple play. His entire legislative agenda has been built on a mandate that never existed and it is coming back in the poll numbers.
highhopes on August 28, 2009 at 2:08 PM
Yep, we’re all over this place. But then again, where else would we be? Name the Libertarian site where you can enjoy commenting amongst thousands of active conservative users.
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LastRick on August 28, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Nor did any shred of leadership qualities ever exist within him. Except, however, Obama has proven adept at both finding and fighting his way into any wet paper bag lying around–and then failing to be able to fight himself out of it. Now that takes some skillz yo!
ted c on August 28, 2009 at 2:12 PM
There really is no one in the stable as I see it.
Huckabee comes off really as a dunce.
McCain should never have run in ’08.
Palin has been smeared, trashed and destroyed.
Thompson is an old, white balding dude.
Romney is Mormon, you think Southern Evangelicals would vote for Satan? I am being facetious but I knew Evangelical Christians that deem it evil. Doesn’t help that his Healthcare plan is quickly becoming bankrupt.
Jindal, despite him shinning in La, he has some skeletons, namely remarks he made about Protestants.
Ensign and Sanford, are done. Too many people still belief politicians must be morally pure. Nonsense, they just have to do their duty within the constraints of the Constitution.
Crist, doubtful.
Schwarzenegger? Inelligable and has governed badly. He could wipe that slate clean if he was to put the California government back in budget but that is not going to happen.
Michelle Bachman? Will quickly get compared to Sarah Palin.
Liz Cheney? Ahem, her dad, Darth Cheney, remember him?
Hannity? Has a great chance with his intelligence, debating ability and hyperpartisan ship. But he has no experience in government. Where as Obama will have been the POTUS for 4 years, his reign would have to be even more disastorous.
Anyone else?
Holger on August 28, 2009 at 2:12 PM
Hey
I know it’s off-topic, but you mentioned your dog the other day, what kind do you have?
Chainsaw56 on August 28, 2009 at 2:13 PM
I agree. It was all about race. He may hate knowing this, but he sure didn’t mind using it to win. So now he’ll get to own it.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:15 PM
I agree as well. I mean, he has to learn something(!) from this drop in the polls, right? How daft would you have to be? (ok, don’t answer this, rhetorical.) Still the damage may already be done — at this pace, the GOP make significant gains in the House or just enough in the Senate and legislation is tied up. (Which Libertarians like me love; nothing gets done.)
It should be repugnant to all of us and most especially to blacks, who as Steele and Justice Thomas both state in different ways, are not helped by being treated with kid gloves. Had the press been tougher on Obama during the campaign (and he still won), it would have done him a good service because he would be better prepared for the real test which is the Presidency. Instead, many topics were off-limits, many questions unanswered and now he appears like the real rookie that he is, far from the cool cucumber we thought we were electing.
LastRick on August 28, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Papillion. omigosh, she’s like a stereotypical small yappy dog for the middle-aged woman. Embarassing!
The breed is very territorial, and she’s a great little watchdog. Course, that’s it for protection. She’ll wake me up. After that, I’m on my own. :)
Do you know that breed? They have big ears.
She is terribly aggressive with men on sidewalks. Loves kids. Likes women.
I tell everyone she’s my “lesbian” dog. *haha
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:18 PM
Palin’s trashing could turn into a smart card. We’ll see.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Yet he keeps his college records under lock and key.
Hmmm … wonder why.
redridinghood on August 28, 2009 at 2:21 PM
Treacher’s point is (if I’m reading him correctly) who knows who the GOP candidate will be at this point. Four years out from the 2008 election, Obama was largely unknown and we thought we were staring down at a Hillary-Rudy general election. Boy were we wrong!
So, take a deep breath, GOP. If you don’t know who your candidate’s going to be for an election three years out, it’s ok.
LastRick on August 28, 2009 at 2:21 PM
So agree. I was appalled. I realized that I really couldn’t back the current Dem party anymore. That approach simply is so wrong.
Did you see Boxer be eaten alive by the black Chamber of Congress president for just that reason?
She still doesn’t even get it.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:22 PM
I doubt it’s over grades. I suspect it has to do with some scholarship deal, where he fudged.
Just my guess, of course.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:23 PM
Thaddeus McCotter
Or a Palin/McCotter ticket if Palin succeeds in boosting her independent credentials and keeps her focus on going after the socialists.
modifiedcontent on August 28, 2009 at 2:23 PM
That is disturbing.
metric on August 28, 2009 at 2:24 PM
That is true.
People laughed at Carter for turning down the thermostat to 66 degrees during the “energy crisis” (due largely to his mismanagement), but at least the guy took his own medicine.
Obama and the Democrats jet around the world/live in collossal mansions while whining about global warming, send their kids to private schools, bash the “rich” while remaining as wealthy as kings and want to impose a health care system on the American people that they and their families would never reduce themselves to using.
Zero leadership. Democrats are the party of “talk the talk” and have the peasants carry them down the walk.
NoDonkey on August 28, 2009 at 2:26 PM
On a local station out of Houston this morning, the gents were talking about Obama, and mentioned that it took him 3 times, to pass the bar. I thought…meh, because if I recall, it took John Kennedy Junior several times to pass. But then I thought again…idiots weren’t running around in D.C. and the country, espousing to what a genius he was. lol No wonder he won’t let us see his grades. ;)
capejasmine on August 28, 2009 at 2:27 PM
Yes, I know a few people who have them.
Yes, the name refers to their ears because the resemble the spread wings of a butterfly
I’ve found that is all too common with dogs for some reason.
Is she ‘fixed’?
Do you do any dogs sports like agility or flyball with her?
Chainsaw56 on August 28, 2009 at 2:28 PM
It could, if she shines in interviews (which she really didn’t first time around). Unfortunately, she still has to play ball with the MSM that was in lock step with the smear campaign originating from the Nutroots and Axelrod’s shop.
I’d like to see her win just to see the face of the asshats when they get stripped of their press credentials.
Holger on August 28, 2009 at 2:28 PM
My thinking is that Obama is probably going to get a 2nd term, unless there’s some big dramatic deal.
Whomever the GOP candidate is will get a chance to work out strategies that work with the public.
Next time up?
It’ll be time for a change.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:29 PM
Heh, obviously we were writing our posts at the same time…I just beat you to the button. Yay me.
I’m gonna predict that most of those who made “white-guilt” votes are now regretting their choice of an inexperienced, unvetted, academically coddled, marxist, affirmative-action social justice choice for a leader of the (disappearing) free world.
Personally, I wouldn’t hesitate to vote for a conservative black candidate whose “content of his character” has been vetted, however I believe Obama is setting race relations back by decades, which will make it very difficult for the next black candidates to make their mark.
Hmmm, maybe a woman with executive experience and a corruption busting mantra could do well. Hmmm, are there any women out there who fit the bill? I’d vote for that history making ticket!
/Oh wait, I already did, except she was playing second fiddle.
ornery_independent on August 28, 2009 at 2:32 PM
No, I walk her to death sometimes. Even though she’s little, I find she needs exercise. She’s mostly, how do I describe it, jittery.
Overly responsive. That’s it.
I’ve never had a dog quite this alert!
She’s super-calm with me, personally. Attached to my hip, so to speak. And she’s very smart.
My only real complaint? Housebreaking her is STILL a challenge. The dang dog is 8. Give me a break here! LOL*
What’s funny, since you seem to be a dog person, is that she absolutely knows what I want. We’re having a real debate here.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:34 PM
What’s disturbing is that a majority view Obama as honest and truthful. What in God’s name are they smoking and drinking?
eaglewingz08 on August 28, 2009 at 2:34 PM
He could care less about polls. While we hopefully have a chance of stopping the health care bill, he is still daily putting in place people/policies that will completely change this country. Don’t know the details yet, but Rockefeller is championing a bill that would give the government power over shutting down internet sites in an emergency. They have put so many irons in the fire that it is hard to keep up. It keeps coming from both the executive & congress. Therefore, we have no one in government to fight for us.
hillbilly on August 28, 2009 at 2:37 PM
I think she’s done fine since out of the campaign. I never thought she got much of a fair shot.
She’ll tackle that one in the right time, in my opinion.
Still, she has to be judged on her policies. The Death Panel stuff was a cheap shot.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Our neighbors to the north get it:
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/14132
dhunter on August 28, 2009 at 2:41 PM
A second life-term. I would be for that.
He’s already wearing out and he will either resign prior to the 2012 election, decline to run (ala LBJ), get defeated in the primary, or get trounced in the general election.
This guy is already our worst President ever and there is no possible way he gets a second term. He is a disaster on wheels.
NoDonkey on August 28, 2009 at 2:41 PM
Could be. If it brings out the racists, it will be a killer for the right.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 12:41 PM
KISS MY AZZ.
NJ Red on August 28, 2009 at 2:42 PM
The Death Panel stuff was a cheap shot.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Truth is a cheap shot?????? Since when?
NJ Red on August 28, 2009 at 2:43 PM
They all need walks – they live in a world of smells, and it’s like their version of TV.
The ones I’ve known are very smart -for a small dog mind you.
Have you ever tried Crate training – basically it’s like their ‘den’, their personal space that they won’t want to soil. It teaches them where it’s appropriate to go.
Are you a fan of the ‘Dog whisperer’ – Ceasar Milan. He says that they are like ‘emotional’ mirrors.
Has she been spayed?
Chainsaw56 on August 28, 2009 at 2:50 PM
yes, she’s spayed.
And yes, I bought a crate.
And then she cried.
And that was the end of crate-training.
:)
I’m truly a wuss.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:52 PM
Romney-Palin or Palin-Romney 2012. It doesn’t matter. Toasty boy is toast.
EMD on August 28, 2009 at 2:54 PM
I think Carter gets that medal.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 2:56 PM
At least Obama is bringing Americans together.
On the issue of rejecting Obama.
Hope and change.
NoDonkey on August 28, 2009 at 3:03 PM
That’s good.
Most of mine are rescues, and it’s one of those things I’m really passionate about.
Well, then you have to be a “Pack leader”, sorry to ask, but when you walk her, does she walk out in front?
Chainsaw56 on August 28, 2009 at 3:05 PM
Oh yeah.
Until we hit over 30 minutes.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 3:08 PM
I don’t see that as being all that “mixed.” They still think he’s smart (as do I), it’s just that they’re starting to believe that he’s a very smart big-government liar (as do I).
29Victor on August 28, 2009 at 3:16 PM
How long is it going to be before Dem politician begin to see association with President Obama as a liability? I’m thinkin’ early 2010.
29Victor on August 28, 2009 at 3:18 PM
You should watch Caesar, the walk is one of the most important ways to establish pack leadership.
Unfortunately, the one out front is the pack leader.
You may have to try and have her stay in her crate for short periods of time – a few seconds at first, only letting her out when she’s quiet. That can being very difficult – I have the same issue with mine, but after a while they learn to stay quiet – that’s the theory at least.
Chainsaw56 on August 28, 2009 at 3:20 PM
My best success story? I watched that goofy show, “Either me or the dog goes!”
Know that one? It’s a version of the Nanny.
Anyway, I was having real angst because Abby was racing up to my gate everytime my neighbors came home. It was obnoxious behavior.
The first set of neighbors who had to tolerate this hated her, with reason. Good gravy, who needs that?
So, I followed the ideas in this silly show. I’d call her over and make her lay down to get her snack, a small tidbit.
It worked.
I just have to do a lot more of that same stuff. I think she knows I’m in charge. I think she also knows just how she can push it.
She’s 8, so I’m not dealing with the usual friskiness factor.
She doesn’t really mind it when I get in charge, in other words.
My personal opinion? Jeesh, this dog gets thrice the attention of any dog in my LIFE! I don’t have kids around anymore, so she’s IT.
That should frankly be enough.
Anyway, it’s been fun exchanging about dogs. Thanks.
I feel rather nutty and silly. But she is my kiddo today in life.
AnninCA on August 28, 2009 at 3:30 PM
A strong leader? This guy has no grapes, period. Anybody who regularly asks to get whipped by Nancy Pelosi is no man, much less no leader.
redfoxbluestate on August 28, 2009 at 3:32 PM
He CAN’T. His EGO won’t let him. O’care is his ‘signature’ policy initiative. He wants to go to Copenhagen this fall with “Crap and Tax” in his back pocket so that He can RIGHTFULLY become THE WORLD LEADER on global warming.
Like I said, won’t happen. For President Ego, IT IS ALL ABOUT HIM.
GarandFan on August 28, 2009 at 3:38 PM
Oh I know that show – her techniques are slightly different than Caesar – she’s more positive only type training. Sometimes you just have to look around and find what works.
They really know how to manipulate their people – good or bad unfortunately.
Thanks for the exchange.
Chainsaw56 on August 28, 2009 at 3:40 PM
That did not take long.
Terrye on August 28, 2009 at 4:18 PM
Dr Evil on August 28, 2009 at 4:59 PM
Well, so do I, but so what? After WW2 the allies gave the captured nazi leaders IQ tests and found they were very intelligent, too. Goering, IIRC, had an IQ of 143; not Einstein but not chopped liver, either.
PersonFromPorlock on August 28, 2009 at 5:20 PM
We kind of expected it, Didn’t We?
A guy with very little political experience other than Community Organization, which btw has nothing to do with running a country with 50 states, and a legal background which only qualifies him to be a bottom feeder.
So now we are being bullied by a community organizer using Chicago thug techniques and we are not having it.
To date he has done nothing for our benefit unless you were a heavy supporter in his campaign. In addition, even if you were a major contributor, this will be costing your children and possibly your grand children.
We need to reel this guy in, return the Auto Industry back to private Industry, get out of the Banking Business and return them to private industry and reduce the size of government.
BigMike252 on August 28, 2009 at 5:26 PM
Well, so do I, but so what? After
WW2 the alliestheir latest speeches, the media gave thecaptured naziDEM leaders IQ tests and found they were very intelligent, too.GoeringPelosi, IIRC, had an IQ of
14343; not Einsteinbut notcloser to chopped liver,either.Red State State of Mind on August 28, 2009 at 8:09 PM
Why would that be relavent in this context, as there will not be a presidential election for three years.
whbates on August 28, 2009 at 11:31 PM
Other that people like yourself saying that he’s smart I’m not sure I’ve seen anything that would justify that belief.
whbates on August 28, 2009 at 11:39 PM
How can “many see him as a strong leader”?
Makes no sense if the same people polled are basically saying he sucks.
I guess they close their wittle eyes weally, weally hard and truly want to believe that yes we can!!!
Dr. ZhivBlago on August 28, 2009 at 11:55 PM
What planet do some of these people live on? In a couple of years they might even start to notice REALITY!
Mojave Mark on August 29, 2009 at 1:02 AM
What exactly did independents expect from a 60 seat majority senate, a house with a 70 seat majority, and a president who is basically shirley chisholm and bernie sanders wrapped up in a liberal tortilla?
Didn’t the wall street journal predict what would happen with a federal government with a liberal super-majority?
I mean, are independents the dumbest human beings in the world? Did you not expect them to pass cap and trade, gay marriage, drive-thru abortions, higher taxes, and a socialized healthcare system?
It’s like giving an alcoholic a six pack and a liter and expecting him not to drink.
EMR on August 29, 2009 at 12:54 PM
Obama smart? He raised fuel economy and emission standards on an auto industry teetering on bankruptcy. He happily tried to kill the SUVs that Americans love. In doing so he effectively handed market share to foreign competition. I’m sure many champaign corks were popped in China, Japan and Korea as Obama used his genius to save Detroit… Smart? Not so much.
Nozzle on August 29, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Obama smart? What is so smart about doubling the National debt in the next decade? Independants, it could be argued that doubling the National debt would result in at least 50% loss in the purchasing power of the dollar. Are you prepared to double your costs of living? Is .Obama smart for putting America on a course that doubles our costs of living in a decade or less?
Nozzle on August 29, 2009 at 2:25 PM
I think its cause people think I’m pretty Uncle Jed
bluegrass on August 30, 2009 at 11:14 AM
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