New CBO projection: 2.3 million more people unemployed next year than expected
posted at 9:28 pm on August 26, 2009 by Allahpundit
A back-of-the-envelope calculation by former Bush aide Keith Hennessey translates CBO’s revised projected unemployment rate into a “big bad number.” How bad? It’s an average of almost 200,000 more jobs lost every month for the entire year.
Consider it a minor adjustment to those “created or saved” numbers that no one knows how to calculate anyway.
There is no disagreement, however, about the net directional effect of the two. CBO and OMB project a weaker economy in the remainder of 2009 and in 2010 than they projected at the beginning of this year before enactment of the stimulus.
How much weaker?
Based on CBO’s forecast for the average unemployment rate in calendar year 2010, 2.3 million fewer people will be employed on average next year than they projected in January.
For comparison, in July there were about 140 million people employed in the U.S.
Next year’s reality will depend heavily on when the economy turns up and how quickly growth returns. A new projection of fewer people employed next year should not surprise anyone. But 2.3 million is a big bad number.
Exit question: CBO’s projected average unemployment rate next year is 10.2 percent. How many jobs would we be talking about if they used the “real” unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those who are working less than they’d like? According to the chairman of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, that one currently stands at … 16 percent and counting.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »
is this what Ted would have wanted?
rob verdi on August 26, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Feel the hope!
sondiehl on August 26, 2009 at 9:32 PM
I’ve noticed that Bozo has stopped talking about “jobs created or saved”.
WHERE ARE THE JOBS?????
txag92 on August 26, 2009 at 9:32 PM
ALL PART OF THE MASTER PLAN….BRING WHITEY TO HIS KNEES THEN FIX IT SO HE’LL BE SATISFIED W/ LESS. or …. RETURN THE WEALTH OF THE NATION TO IT’S “RIGHTFUL OWNERS” obviously an SEIU reference.
lm10001 on August 26, 2009 at 9:32 PM
If not for Obama and Cash for Clunkers it would have been 2.31
CWforFreedom on August 26, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Green Shoots! Yes, I agree Chrissy! I’m willing to give Obama complete and full credit for this wirtshaftswunder!
AUINSC on August 26, 2009 at 9:34 PM
And I thought Jimah Carter was bad.
Cindy Munford on August 26, 2009 at 9:34 PM
Gotta love Obamanomics, the hits just keep on coming.
HEY! LET’S SPEND EVEN MORE MONEY!
GarandFan on August 26, 2009 at 9:35 PM
Personally, I don’t the economy will turn around until Bozo is out of office in 2013. Honestly, what business could thrive in the environment they’ve created?
txag92 on August 26, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Look …. statistically speaking he should have guessed something right by now. This is all ON PURPOSE! Why can’t people conceive the notion that the President hates everything America stands for; hates liberty, individualism, freedom, and Fox News?
lm10001 on August 26, 2009 at 9:36 PM
Obama is predicting the American middle class will still be here by the end of his administration.
I’m not so sure.
portlandon on August 26, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Obama has personally created or saved at least his and Joe Biden’s jobs.
That’s two…
The Hopium is wearing off the rest of the nation.
profitsbeard on August 26, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Unemployment rate before Obama and his allies took Congress: 4.6%
In just 2.5 years they’ve tripled that rate.
Give them some credit, no one predicted they would fail on a scale this epic…
18-1 on August 26, 2009 at 9:38 PM
A buddy of mine repo’s cars…. he says business is booming!
BPD on August 26, 2009 at 9:39 PM
I agree. Obama has made it clear he is no friend to businesses. No one trusts him and many won’t dare make a move until Obama is gone.
Guardian on August 26, 2009 at 9:40 PM
FDR 2009 edition.
Fletch54 on August 26, 2009 at 9:41 PM
CBO doesn’t count jobs saved. According to the White House, 19.5 trillion jobs have been saved.
I know mine has been saved at least 150 million times this year alone!
BobMbx on August 26, 2009 at 9:41 PM
Obama’s growth projections have been nonsensical since at least March. He practically assumed away the recession from the get-go.
Ridiculous.
I know you talked about it in the WaPo thread, but I’ll restate my own version here: Given the entirely foreseeable deficits, failures of cost control in the health care proposals and C&T regulatory and price-effect drags on GDP affecting whatever poor schmuck gets elected in 2016, Obama must have balls like brass churchbells to let the word “inherited” pass his lips.
He is the architect, thus far, of what is looking like an insurmountable set of economic challenges for future Administrations and he’s doing it in the full light of day.
DrSteve on August 26, 2009 at 9:41 PM
Hell of a novel way to save or create jobs…
Using “real” numbers, I predict that the unemployment rate will go over 20%+ in the coming months, California being he hardest hit.
Then the real fun begins…no taxes/revenue coming in as more people hit the unemployment lines and more companies and corporations close their doors…and we will still be on the hook for about $10 trillion that Obama did not inherit from Bush.
Damn, it is sure comforting to know the adults are in charge now.
coldwarrior on August 26, 2009 at 9:42 PM
It’s all going to get worse before it gets better. Just ask “The One”
“President-elect Barack Obama said the U.S. economy seems destined to get worse before it gets better and he pledged a recovery plan “that is equal to the task ahead.”
So instead of a recovery later this year (as we were promised recently), we are all headed to where we knew we headed when he was elected.
OOOOPS! This one might make “The LIST”
Nelsa on August 26, 2009 at 9:42 PM
Yes its on purpose. Here’s some heavy reading: http://www.usasurvival.org/un-religion.html
fullogas on August 26, 2009 at 9:42 PM
Financial terrorism!!
Poljax on August 26, 2009 at 9:43 PM
That sure is a lot of jobs saved or created!
Steven Den Beste on August 26, 2009 at 9:43 PM
Well, there’s all the czars, too…
malclave on August 26, 2009 at 9:44 PM
Obama confides to Chris Matthews during commercial break over open mike:
“Chris, uh…Look, you know I don’t really know what I’m doing….but you and uh…the rest of the folks here at MSNBC are doing a heckuva job…”
BobMbx on August 26, 2009 at 9:45 PM
what a disaster
rob verdi on August 26, 2009 at 9:45 PM
Eat your heart out Jimmy Carter……..
Rovin on August 26, 2009 at 9:48 PM
Sooooooo, if that many more folks are out of work, that means those folks won’t be paying federal and state income taxes, which means millions (maybe billions) less in income to pay the freight. Now just where do you suppose that money will come from? Yeah, I know….OUR pockets.
GoldenEagle4444 on August 26, 2009 at 9:49 PM
Economic Crisis?….nah
d1carter on August 26, 2009 at 9:51 PM
Question: Does this number include illegals too?
Upstater85 on August 26, 2009 at 9:51 PM
all the more people gettin’ ready for them “green jobs!”
ted c on August 26, 2009 at 9:51 PM
BPD on August 26, 2009 at 9:51 PM
but I thought we were supposed to be growing at a steady rate of 7-8% a year according to The Won’s calculator….
maybe not?
ted c on August 26, 2009 at 9:52 PM
I think those green jobs will tending your own garden.
ICBM on August 26, 2009 at 9:53 PM
You know…………..
……….. Either Obama and his Administration don’t know what they are doing,
or they know what they are doing……..
……… Which is worse?
Seven Percent Solution on August 26, 2009 at 9:53 PM
Well then, it is a good thing for Democrats that 2010 isn’t an election year! Oh wait….
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 9:54 PM
yeah, I’ll probably get taxed on the seeds I produce as well.
ted c on August 26, 2009 at 9:54 PM
But we need to do it for TEDDY.
bloggless on August 26, 2009 at 9:54 PM
Change You Can Believe In!
Provided that change happens to be the one relating to your employment status.
pilamaye on August 26, 2009 at 9:55 PM
It’s about time you men were taxed on your seeds.
bloggless on August 26, 2009 at 9:55 PM
But Barry promised he will created 3.5 million new jobs. What is this BS of millions of job loss instead. CBO is a lying, racist, right wing conspiracy.
bayview on August 26, 2009 at 9:55 PM
My town is getting a bicycle path. That’s two jobs for a week.
bloggless on August 26, 2009 at 9:57 PM
i’ve already paid my tax in full for those.
ted c on August 26, 2009 at 9:58 PM
scary. hold me.
Mommypundit on August 26, 2009 at 9:59 PM
Oh come on now. Surely you haven’t seen the city/county/state at work. There’s got to be at least two trucks, a driver in each cab to keep the air running, two guys outside–one to lean on a shovel and the other to think about working and act like a target to get hit by a car and fine you “Minimum of $14,513″
ted c on August 26, 2009 at 10:00 PM
Whoops, typo…the dash must be in the wrong place: -78%
Poljax on August 26, 2009 at 10:00 PM
Some guy in Illinois got a couple hunrit thousand to study why men don’t like using condoms. They coulda axed Bonnie Fwank and saved a ton of money.
GoldenEagle4444 on August 26, 2009 at 10:00 PM
JoblessJob Loss recoveryCWforFreedom on August 26, 2009 at 10:00 PM
thanks for fixin’ it for me jax–a whole different context eh?!
ted c on August 26, 2009 at 10:00 PM
Not sure if you are serious or not but it doesn’t This is the “official” economy. It doesn’t include those working outside the system (legally or illegally) though some models attempt to account for this part of the economy.
The one upside I’ve heard from the Obama recession is that some of the illegals are going back home. Turns out they were only here for the money and not for the chance at citizenship claimed by the pro-amnesty folks. The money dried up and they went back home.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:01 PM
With pleasure.
Seriously, what scares me is that so many people keep discussing this as if Obama simply doesn’t know how to rescue the economy. He doesn’t want to rescue the economy. He wants to pile up the crises until he has screwed up the country so much that he can get away with rescuing the country with Venezuela style socialist dictatorship.
Anyone see Glenn Beck tonight? Guess what Obama’s FCC diversity czar said? You know, the guy who is going to “fix” tv and talk radio? He thinks the Venezuela Hugo Chavez revolution was “incredible” (as in wonderful) and criticized the US for trying to interfere with it. He believes in state-run media.
Now — let’s have a look at that picture of Obama and Chavez again, anyone? The pieces starting to fall together yet?
Daggett on August 26, 2009 at 10:04 PM
Only 2.3 million more unemployed, what’s the big deal
Hey don’t be so hard hearted, let’s kill grandma for Ted.
tarpon on August 26, 2009 at 10:06 PM
Well, blow me down! Now why didn’t Bush/Rove think of ending the immigration problem this way? All they needed to do was borrow $10 trillion and destroy the financial and manufacturing base of the US.
Those conservatives are just stupid.
BobMbx on August 26, 2009 at 10:06 PM
Hey………
…….. I heard Ted Kennedy was feeling under the weather.
Isn’t that more important…….?
Seven Percent Solution on August 26, 2009 at 10:07 PM
Obama should be very popular on the campaign stump come fall 2010.
JammieWearingFool on August 26, 2009 at 10:07 PM
Oh, add to that the fact that Obama was AGAINST the democratic constitution of Honduras and was FOR restoring their socialist dictator wannabe to power? Anyone? Starting to make sense?
So why do talk show hosts (other than Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh) keep discussing Obama’s economy plans as if Obama actually wants to fix the economy but is just too radical or too stupid to make it work?
Daggett on August 26, 2009 at 10:07 PM
I have seen reports of families sending money from Mexico to their family members in the US. We are truly in upside down bizarro world.
ICBM on August 26, 2009 at 10:08 PM
You really have to think hard to figure this out. Obama is closing Gitmo and releasing the terrorists. Holder is prosecuting the CIA for keeping us safe from the Terrorists. I was out sick a couple of days but I didn’t think I missed THAT much!!
GoldenEagle4444 on August 26, 2009 at 10:10 PM
Yep. Same result could have happened by simply holding employers responsible and making it impossible for illegals to find employment. Leave it to the liberals to ensure that jobs are scarce no matter what.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:10 PM
At this point, I don’t think he will be asked to do much campaigning for dem candidates, but he will certainly be a popular topic.
ICBM on August 26, 2009 at 10:10 PM
I love all the signs posted on the roads “Putting America Back to Work” and there is absolutely NO ONE working. Nothing. Not even an orange barrel.
joshlbetts on August 26, 2009 at 10:12 PM
change™
Mord on August 26, 2009 at 10:13 PM
Really? I’ve not seen that but the reality is that the world needs the American President to be a steady influence and we’re completely out of luck with the current regime.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:13 PM
But, but CNN told me today that the recession is over and that the economy is on the rebound. Now what am I supposed to believe, CNN or my lying eyes?
Dhuka on August 26, 2009 at 10:13 PM
Did you ask her how tall she is?
I am not looking forward to funemployment. If my husband and I stuck in this house together all the time, ya’ll will read about in the news.
TXMomof3 on August 26, 2009 at 10:13 PM
And the hits just keep on coming.
HornetSting on August 26, 2009 at 10:16 PM
He came here to Virginia to support Deeds for governor. He made a splashy helicopter landing near the McLean Hilton where he stated that dissenters should shut up and get out of his way. Deeds remains behind in the polling by double digits.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:17 PM
And man oh man, I know a lot of folks who are out of work but REFUSE to take government assistance or register as unemployed.
John the Libertarian on August 26, 2009 at 10:17 PM
He was.
thomasaur on August 26, 2009 at 10:17 PM
You guys stop bashing ‘Bozo.
He has to clean up the mess from the previous administration.
Lanceman on August 26, 2009 at 10:19 PM
Good point! Should that be my first question, or should I ask “are you married?” first?
(Actually I think it’s pretty obvious she’s married, dang it.)
Daggett on August 26, 2009 at 10:20 PM
I agree. I cannot imagine another reason why he would be doing what he is doing without an ulterior motive. Thankfully, more and more people are seeing it.
Daggett, if you have twitter, it’s time for you to follow me.
Mommypundit on August 26, 2009 at 10:21 PM
Both and neither. Recovery is not uniform nor is it certain. Parts of the previous economy will never recover or will only do so after a lengthy process.
That being said, never believe anything you see on CNN or MSNBC.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:21 PM
True about the Deeds event, but he is becoming more toxic. Certainly, things can change by next August. Time will tell.
ICBM on August 26, 2009 at 10:21 PM
Someone needs to tell Teddy, uh, nevermind. Calling Senator Juan McCain….
HornetSting on August 26, 2009 at 10:22 PM
Still is and he is advising the filthy liar in the White House.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:22 PM
“Here’s my sign.”
thomasaur on August 26, 2009 at 10:26 PM
Yah, well, tax revenues will similarly plunge compared to estimates and deficits will be bigger.
We are going to be in a world of hurt, kids.
Bama doesn’t care, the political class takes care of itself first. The bleeding is for others.
Er, I am not liking this one bit.
Harry Schell on August 26, 2009 at 10:30 PM
Just me personally, I would ask if they were married before I wasted my time on the the second question. Just sayin’…
TXMomof3 on August 26, 2009 at 10:32 PM
Wolaboga, if that’s your picture, you’re gorgeous.
Anyway, I created an account and I’m following.
Daggett on August 26, 2009 at 10:33 PM
Hope you’re having a nice vacation, champ.
PattyJ on August 26, 2009 at 10:34 PM
Yeah. I like the way Groucho Marx did it, though:
“Will you marry me? Are you rich? Answer the second question first (foist).”
Daggett on August 26, 2009 at 10:35 PM
I was hoping that he would remain the worst in my lifetime. The Won appears to be going for the win.
Cindy Munford on August 26, 2009 at 10:36 PM
My nose is extraordinarily big in that picture…but…it’s a bad one, so, what can I do? My cannon and my regular computer are being difficult at the moment. But, thanks!
Husband has no problem with my internet exploits. He has toy cars, I do politics.
Mommypundit on August 26, 2009 at 10:37 PM
Must be nice to have a job that allows for a 10 day vacation with full travel expenses paid after only 7 months on the job….
tatersalad on August 26, 2009 at 10:39 PM
It appears as though we’ve called on Paul Lynde. ; )
thomasaur on August 26, 2009 at 10:39 PM
That’s me. I’m employed now but in times past my dignity was worth far more than the paltry amount that comes from filing for unemployment. I’ve always lived within my means and have been able to pay the bills (sometimes that is all I did) without becoming a statistic.
I don’t mean to come off as arrogant. Through hard work and frugality, a temporary disruption of the income stream is not critical. I would suggest there are more of my type than the left would like to admit.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:39 PM
Isn’t it amazing how all this bad news is breaking while Prince WeeWee is incognito.
red131 on August 26, 2009 at 10:42 PM
Toy cars??
Daggett on August 26, 2009 at 10:43 PM
At least Paul Lynde could be funny. There is nothing funny about Obama.
ICBM on August 26, 2009 at 10:46 PM
Ha ha. Life-sized. But, he tinkers with them. He just got a new-eighties vintage bmw “shark” which is actually really gorgeous. He is outside a lot. :o)
Mommypundit on August 26, 2009 at 10:47 PM
ever seen detroit? a post-apocalyptic wasteland???
guess what, they keep voting democRAT…detroit, coming to a neighborhood near you…
right4life on August 26, 2009 at 10:50 PM
Not for Deeds. The time is now. Virginia gets a new governor the year after a Presidential election.
As to the 2010 elections, it is hard to imagine that the filthy liar in the White House will be able sway public sentiment in a positive way. He campaigned as a post-partisan post-racial candidate and he has essentially furthered polarization by his actions. Solid seats will remain unchanged but iffy seats will be a referendum on this administration.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:50 PM
Well, if we are at 16% real unemployment now, with 140 million jobs and will lose 2.3 more that’s another 1.4% to real unemployment if we assume the workforce stays the same granted it won’t.
I can’t see how we ‘officially’ hit 10.2% given how many people dropped out of the work force last month allowing unemployment to go down.
But it certainly will mean the democrats are going to get wiped out in 2010.
Remember last August McCain was pretty high up in the polls. I think a lot more of these voters are fickle than we give them credit for.
jhffmn on August 26, 2009 at 10:51 PM
Of course it is by design. The usual Friday dump on a larger scale.
The hope is that some of the bad news will blow over before the filthy liar in the White House is off his vacation. The bad news is so severe I question if this time-honored tactic is going to work in this case.
highhopes on August 26, 2009 at 10:56 PM
So much for his shovel-ready,million jobs!!!
Reminds me of Bill Clintion hiring 100,000
new police officers that were never hired!!
So,the lesson is,never believe a Liberal President!!
canopfor on August 26, 2009 at 10:56 PM
I wouldn’t bet on the democrats being wiped out…remember ACORN..and the illegals…flood the end zone….
right4life on August 26, 2009 at 10:59 PM
Comment pages: 1 2 Next »