GDP decline twice as bad as Obama WH predicted
posted at 10:55 am on August 25, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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The latest retreat on economic credibility at the White House comes at a particularly bad time. Barack Obama has tried to sell his economic agenda on health-care reform and cap-and-trade as economic boons instead of boondoggles. However, his mid-year recasting of American economic performance and admission of the deficit impact of his budgets will continue to erode confidence in his competence:
U.S. unemployment will surge to 10 percent this year and the budget deficit will widen to $1.5 trillion next year, reflecting a “deeper recession” than previously expected, White House budget chief Peter Orszag said.
The Office of Management and Budget also forecasts that the U.S. economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year, worse than the 1.2 percent contraction the OMB projected in May. For next year, the budget office said the gross domestic product will grow 2.0 percent, less than the 3.2 percent expected in May. By 2011, the economy would be well on its way to recovery, growing at a 3.8 percent annual rate, according to the administration’s mid-year economic review, released this morning.
The budget shortfall for 2010 will mark the second straight year of trillion-dollar deficits. The projected deficit for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 is higher than the $1.26 trillion forecast in May and reflects expectations economic growth will be slower this year and next because of “the severity of the crisis in the U.S. and in our trading partners,” said Christina Romer, White House chief economist, who along with Orszag briefed reporters on the report.
Let’s recall the difference between Orszag’s OMB projections for the deficit in March, and the CBO’s numbers:

The difference between these projections was the prediction of Obama’s economic advisers of US economic performance. They predicated their numbers, in the light pink, based on the entirely unrealistic expectation of getting -1.2% GDP growth this year, after the first quarter came in at -6% (annualized), later revised to -5.4%. Even while the second quarter continued to look poor, the OMB continued with its sunny analysis. Now that we’re in the middle of the third quarter and growth remains elusive — and more importantly, unemployment continues to rise — the White House has no fig leaf to hide their errors.
Why did the OMB hold out this long against CBO predictions? Simple; the Obama administration needed sunnier numbers in order to justify its plans to spend vast sums of money on its social-engineering agenda. Even in the best of times, these programs would be disastrous, but during a deep recession, they will kill any hope of economic growth. In short, OMB indulged in political hackery, hoping to continue their deception long enough to get ObamaCare and cap-and-trade through a compliant Congress. Now they have to admit that they either conducted an incompetent analysis while most significant economists scoffed at their projections for growth, or cooked the books.
Orszag should resign as OMB director after this performance. (I have no expectations that he will, but he should.) Remaining in the President’s budget office only extends the credibility crisis to everything else produced by the White House on the economic agenda. How can anyone trust Obama and Orszag after the complete failures of Porkulus and the budget projections, especially given the political manipulations involved?
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The mainstream media will say something like “we inherited an economic downturn from Bush that is much worse than previously thought… imagine if we hadn’t had the stimulus package, unemployment would be at 20%… etc…”
ChristianRock on August 25, 2009 at 11:00 AM
But this is the same reason they always give. When the numbers are worse they say it was worse than previously thought. In other words, the greatest of the greats basically admit they are clueless on how to read the economy. For if they had any clue they would have gotten it right sometime in the past 4 or 5 “it was worse than we thought”s. In reality they are the ones that have made it worse.
Jed_Eckert on August 25, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Well, the Chinese did laugh at him. Geitner can’t sell his own house, can’t firgure out TurboTax and cannot make an accurate prediction of anything, including the weather right now…
Odie1941 on August 25, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Lincoln was willing to destroy the union in order to mold it into something more to his liking.
So is Obama.
MarkTheGreat on August 25, 2009 at 11:29 AM
He likes the public all uneasy, setting us up for a panic.
Don’t waste a crisis is turning into let’s manufacture a crisis, so we can’t waste it.
tessa on August 25, 2009 at 11:30 AM
Another liberal display of their complete ignorance of capitalism and how it works.
Banks and car companies would have been bought up at wholesale bargains and then reopened running in the black almost immediately. The problem was that the ones that would have gone under were the long established institutions that have been wielding power in Washington for decades. The reason they were bailed out was because they had bought and paid for our current crop of politicians and politicians are always looking out for their best interests first. And as long as they can convince people like you that they are doing in your best interests, then they get away with it.
It is typical liberal psychosis to expect that those responsible not pay for their own mistakes. The people responsible for this mess haven’t been inconvenienced as much as the American public has been. And we haven’t had to pay the trillions back yet. Those days are coming and they wont be pretty.
csdeven on August 25, 2009 at 11:30 AM
He must be part of the 9% that believe Obama will give him a tax cut.
FontanaConservative on August 25, 2009 at 11:30 AM
This wonderful bit of news caused my upward stockholdings to just tank. Thx Obama.
jediwebdude on August 25, 2009 at 11:30 AM
Unsurprisingly, arguments from ignorance are the favorite of politicians.
lorien1973 on August 25, 2009 at 11:30 AM
Heh. Probably.
lorien1973 on August 25, 2009 at 11:31 AM
HEY………!!!
……. I have an idea,
Let’s elect Barack Hussein Obama as the first Affirmative Action President of the United States………
………. What could go wrong?
Seven Percent Solution on August 25, 2009 at 11:31 AM
And put gas in his car and pay his mortgage.
csdeven on August 25, 2009 at 11:31 AM
People are starting to wake up, but we MUST keep focus and vocal. Beck will be ok…he’s not afraid, nor am I.
lyfsatrip on August 25, 2009 at 11:31 AM
It’s amazing with this government.
If your company does too badly, the government will take you over. (banks, autos)
If your company does too well, the government will take you over (health insurance, oil companies)
I guess in any event, the government will take you over because they can spend as much as they want no matter how much they have. That would make anyone a great businessman. But it would cloud reasonable judgment.
ThackerAgency on August 25, 2009 at 11:32 AM
Math is haaaard.
conservative pilgrim on August 25, 2009 at 11:32 AM
The Marxist incrementalism is bad enough, but I’m really starting to suspect that they want to bring the whole thing down. Read Krugman, who says the Government could easily become a much larger part of GDP. That guy is either certifiable or wants to collapse it all.
Although, I think they are going to be rudely surprised by the results if that were to happen.
elduende on August 25, 2009 at 11:32 AM
Another tasty treat in the report – they now acknowledge that the recession won’t even peak until year-end, which means that it won’t peak until late spring 2010 at the earliest.
Vashta.Nerada on August 25, 2009 at 11:33 AM
If recent polls are any indication, they’re not buying it anymore. Obama’s hemorraging independent voters.
Doughboy on August 25, 2009 at 11:33 AM
And give him a free fuel efficient unicorn
FontanaConservative on August 25, 2009 at 11:34 AM
A Portrait of Fiscal Responsibility. Annual Deficits (by our calculations!) of 600-700 billion/yr.
What now? No, it’s Bush’s fault.
NickelAndDime on August 25, 2009 at 11:34 AM
This needs to be repeated. Obama is going to collapse this country.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
elduende on August 25, 2009 at 11:34 AM
“I must destroy America in order to save it…”
Sincerely,
B. Obama
Wyznowski on August 25, 2009 at 11:34 AM
Clearly further tax cuts would have made the deficit worse, and allowing the auto companies to go under and public sector employees to be laid off would have increased unemployment, so those arguments are non-starters.
In fact, while no one — not even liberals — likes paying taxes, there is no serious evidence that at U.S. tax levels tax cuts have much effect on anything (though low- and mid-income tax cuts can provide a short-term Keynesian boost). And they certainly don’t pay for themselves, something all you born-again deficit hawks should take to heart.
The creative destruction argument is an interesting one, but I am not persuaded that, say, the collapse of the banking system would wrought any improvement out of the vast destruction that it would have caused. The same system and incentives that created the collapse would have still been in place, but tens of millions of people would have been wiped out.
Economics as practiced is not really a science, and confusing economic with morality (as the communists did) is always dangerous. Some you need to tinker with the theory.
Bleeds Blue on August 25, 2009 at 11:35 AM
It’s not what he should have done differently. It’s what he should not have done, at all.
You simply cannot spend your way out of bankruptcy with money you do not have to begin with.
Remember, also the “we MUST pass the stimulus package now, or we face IMMEDIATE disaster”. You know. That meme. The stimulus bill that, so far, has spent 15% of the amount approved, to avert the IMMINENT disaster that is still looming.
The truth is that the stimulus bill is one very large failure that has exacerbated a serious condition. Barack Obama threw gas on a fire with his scare-tactic rhetoric.
It has been as poorly conceived and executed as the Cash-for-Clunkers program.
This administration is a total failure in economic matters.
Yoop on August 25, 2009 at 11:36 AM
Does this take into account the Bush tax cuts expiring. I doubt it.
Clyde5445 on August 25, 2009 at 11:36 AM
I’m sure there’s a czar position for him somewhere. Canadian Geese Czar, perhaps?
NickelAndDime on August 25, 2009 at 11:37 AM
You know the Rules:
- If it moves, tax it.
- If it is still moving, regulate it.
- If it stops moving, subsidize it.
WashJeff on August 25, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Well, it’s obvious to anyone who isn’t a demented bitter gun-clinger that when you’re in a hole, you then borrow excessively, spend more than you have, take over companies, kill production, mandate the “creation” of industries that have no market and subsidize them, tax energy use and consumption, dole out trillions in taxpayer money that you don’t yet have to political supporters and unions for their continuing operations, subsidize failing union-heavy industries, raise taxes on the middle class and the producer class, increase regulations, and discourage consumerism.
And that’s just to start.
Sounds like a winning economic strategy to me!
WHO’S WITH ME?
Good Lt on August 25, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Actually the economic cost of allowing one or two automakers to go under would not have been that bad. Yes, the people who lost their jobs would have been devastated, and the cities where the factories were located would have been hurting big time. But the economy as a whole would have kept on chugging.
The production that was being performed at the closed factories would have shifted to those companies still in business. (We’re in a recession, there’s a lot of excess capacity floating around.) As the economy picked up, companies would have investigated buying up the factories of the deceased companies. (The factories don’t evaporate just because a company declares bankruptcy.) Providing the buyers aren’t scared of by the history of union activity in the old plants. Of course.
Some areas decline, other areas grow, depending on how smart the economic policies of the inhabitants are.
That’s life, and it isn’t devastating.
MarkTheGreat on August 25, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Bankruptcy doesn’t mean out of business. GM still went bankrupt even after it got $20 billion. So that was money into the giant hole. Restructuring it’s employment contracts and its debts is the only way to fix things long term.
Secondly, once again, there were no tax cuts. Geesh. How many times do you all have to be told?
Thirdly, what good is a public sector job? It’s a negative job, really. It raises deficits (government spending) and doesn’t actually produce anything.
lorien1973 on August 25, 2009 at 11:40 AM
The U.S. mint should issue a coin with Lincoln on one side, and Obama on the opposite side. After all, Lincoln freed the slaves, and Obama is enslaving the free.
My collie says:
CyberCipher on August 25, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Orszag is a boob. Along with Romer, they should just hang their heads in shame and bugger off. There’s no news here, just the inevitable sound of reality clanging on the empty skull of Dear Leader. Romer has been running around chirping about how the marvelous stimulus package has “saved” the economy and how grateful we should all be to the ONE for things not being ever so much worse. The blame of course all still being directed back at the evil Dubya.
We’re seeing a modest reduction in negative growth, but the economy is still contracting. I almost dread the day that we turn positive, as it will signal the beginning of the inflationary nightmare that’s sure to come from the credit card bills these financial geniuses have created for us. What improvement we are seeing is largely the result of the rolling back of the mark to market accounting rules which were responsible for the immediate vaporization of hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth, resulting in a severe liquidity crisis.
MJBrutus on August 25, 2009 at 11:42 AM
I believe most of the posters here at Hot Air were.
Allah was in the camp that believed that it was better to be seen doing something, even if it was something wrong.
MarkTheGreat on August 25, 2009 at 11:42 AM
Clearly. Since you said it is “clear” and a “non-starter” it must be true.
But of course, you are completely wrong. Just b/c you believe something is true, does not make it so.
geeze, I guess the fact that every time taxes are cut, revenues rise means nothing. the actual factual evidence is entirely against your theory here.
And, quoting that idiot Keynes, whose every idea has basically been proven wrong over time – does not help your case.
And, of course it would never occur to you, but spending cuts also work to bring the deficit down. You don’t always have to raise taxes. You can actually cut spending sometimes.
I know, I know, you believe in “priming the pump” and the gov’t spending to help the economy. god forbid we simply let people keep more of their own money to spend and prime the old pump. You do realize that FDR’s programs actually prolonged the great depression? Even liberal economists now recognize that.
Monkeytoe on August 25, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Wait…what? Are these people a protected class of worker? Maybe you haven’t noticed but millions of people joined the unemployment lines and no one was pacing the White House in abject worry about their welfare.
What is it about libs and their deep concern that some guy at the DMV might get laid off and how that is a harbinger of doom…I don’t get it.
Bishop on August 25, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Let’s see… CRE meltdown yet to hit banks. FDIC now broke, selling banks to Spain. Feds buying up Treasuries. At least 300 more bank failures ahead. Retail in the crapper. Manufacturing gone. Helicopter Ben lying through his teeth out of the Hole. Gold in full cantango. Cap and trade will raise cost of food significantly…
It’s not long before the house of cards reacts to gravity, and it will be on the Donks watch. It will be a long, long time before the Donk political brand recovers from what is about to unfold.
shaken on August 25, 2009 at 11:44 AM
I used to think that the liberals were just lying about this “tax cut”. I now see that they simply do not understand taxes and withholding, at all.
The chickens will be coming home to roost on that meme next April 15th. Now, how many dim bulbs do you think will flicker on at that time?
Yoop on August 25, 2009 at 11:45 AM
C’mon now…
It’s all Bush’s fault.
JetBoy on August 25, 2009 at 11:45 AM
It’s those danged “profit and earnings ratios”. They’ll get you every time … nasty critters they are.
progressoverpeace on August 25, 2009 at 11:45 AM
This line is all you ever need to know about bleeds blue. Tax cuts need to be “paid” for, as if a tax cut is government giving you some of their (Washington’s) money. Whereas, in reality, a tax cut is letting people keep money they earn.
Bleeds blue: It’s washington’s money and you should be glad you get to keep any of it.
lorien1973 on August 25, 2009 at 11:45 AM
In one breath he sings the praises of an unfunded spending package.
In the next he declares that a tax cut that increases the deficit is a non-starter.
One thing about these Obamabots, they don’t mind contradicting themselves.
MarkTheGreat on August 25, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Gee, then why are the leftists always talking about punishing people who make too much money (i.e., windfall profits) or taxing the rich more? It is the left that confuses economics with morality, not the right. But that is b/c their theories all stem from Marx.
And where is your proof that letting some banks fail or the auto companies fail would have led to “tens of millions of people would have been wiped out.”?
That is nothing more than an unprovable theory, and not a very persuasive one at that.
You don’t seem to know a lot about economics.
Monkeytoe on August 25, 2009 at 11:47 AM
Intellects whose desires have outstripped their understanding.
Friedrich August von Hayek
Doorgunner on August 25, 2009 at 11:47 AM
I’m right there with you, man. My abode is paid for — but I have SEEN the error of my ways (hallelujah). I am about to go out and recklessly purchase a palace that I can not POSSIBLY afford, and I’m receiving the FULL cooperation of the banking industry in that I am putting zero money down.
My collie says:
/sarcasm off
CyberCipher on August 25, 2009 at 11:48 AM
It’s simpler than that. He believes whatever he is told to believe.
MarkTheGreat on August 25, 2009 at 11:48 AM
‘Emergencies’ have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
Friedrich August von Hayek
Doorgunner on August 25, 2009 at 11:49 AM
Thus the need for across the board spending cuts. The dept of Education is ripe for cuts. Has the vast amount of spending increases comisserated with a improvemetn in results? Has the increase in student loans made college more affordable? This government can survive on 5% just fine.
They did go under.
So the goal of economy and employer is to create jobs? If you are not a business owner, or never have been one, please try your theory. See what is a better decision, lay off a few people to save the company, and the employee’s jobs, or keep you current staffing until you run out of money.
Which fits your mindset…that the government is as efficient with resources as the private sector. Hogwash!
HA commentators never liked deficits. You think we think like statists and if our leader does\supports something so do we like lemmings. Bush’s and GOP is probably the MOST hated thing he did in conservatives minds.
WashJeff on August 25, 2009 at 11:49 AM
If most people are not willing to see the difficulty, this is mainly because, consciously or unconsciously, they assume that it will be they who will settle these questions for the others, and because they are convinced of their own capacity to do this.
Friedrich August von Hayek
Doorgunner on August 25, 2009 at 11:51 AM
Can we impeach Obama if we admit that Bush did it?
ted c on August 25, 2009 at 11:52 AM
1. Get a freaking team in place at the Treasury Department.
2. Call a payroll tax holiday.
3. Slash taxes on small business.
4. Concentrate all efforts on recovery of credit markets and payback of TARP funds as quickly as possible.
5. Allow GM to be taken over temporarily by Toyota or Nissan; allow Chrysler to fail.
rockmom on August 25, 2009 at 11:53 AM
Obama to Orszag
“I was told there would be no math”
DrW on August 25, 2009 at 11:53 AM
WashJeff,
I was thinking about this the other day. The two areas in life where costs always rise way more than inflation are higher education and health care.
And, the two areas in life where people usually don’t really pay directly for the produce is health care and higher education.
it seems to me that the 3rd party payer problem is pretty solidly demonstrated by this.
The real solution to health care costs would be to get rid of health care insurance completely and only have catastraphic illness insurance, and make people pay out-of-pocket for health care (i.e., doctors visits, prescriptions, tests). I think that would bring health care costs down very quickly and steeply.
Unfortunately, since everyone is used to not paying directly for health care, it would be next to impossible to do this.
Monkeytoe on August 25, 2009 at 11:54 AM
Tens of millions of people ARE being wiped out. Have you been sleeping through all this?
Yoop on August 25, 2009 at 11:54 AM
Obama inherited his bad luck from Bush!!!
profitsbeard on August 25, 2009 at 11:54 AM
I guess my question is why that leftist Clinton cut capital gains and dividends taxes — a ruthlessly regressive tax cut — if we hate wealth so much? While there is a faction that sees, say, AIG executives paying themselves huge bonuses as criminal and would love to fine them through the tax system, “eat the rich” has never really been a rallying cry in the mainstream left. We tax the rich not because we hate them, but because that’s where the money is. And because rich people’s actual taxes as percent of money earned is much lower than is believed in some circles.
where is your proof that letting the banks fail wouldn’t have wiped out millions and would have led to the emergence of a stronger U.S. banking system? That is nothing more than an unprovable theory, and not a very persuasive one at that.
Bleeds Blue on August 25, 2009 at 11:55 AM
The next crisis….
H1N1 epidemic
ObamaCare will save us!! ::eyeroll::
lyfsatrip on August 25, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Oh yeah, one other thing Obama should have done:
KEEP HIS PROMISES about transparency, going through the budget line by line and eliminating wasteful programs, and vetoing ALL Congressional earmarks.
His abandonment of all these good-government promises immediately tarnished his halo and caused a lot of people to start distrusting him. Now a substantial portion of the people do not believe anything he says. If you want to expand government, you FIRST have to win the people’s trust that this larger government will be run honestly, openly, and efficiently. Obama has utterly failed to do this.
rockmom on August 25, 2009 at 11:57 AM
+100
Swine flu will be used in the manufacturing process as well. Book it.
BardMan on August 25, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Me too.
1921 C DRUM on August 25, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Then let’s RAISE TAXES ON EVERY INDIVIDUAL AND BUSINESS IN THE NATION! That’s will surely “create jobs.”
O BAM A
O BAM A
A few lies to dispel here.
Liberals don’t pay taxes – the take and spend taxes. Your Treasury secretary is an example, as are several other nominees President Government tried to appoint (Tom Daschle, etc.).
The rest of liberals are either ultra-rich or poor. The wealthy don’t pay taxes on wealth they already have (trust fund babies like the Kennedys) and the poor don’t pay income taxes. If they’re blue-collar, they’re voting for against their own economic interests by voting Democrat. Democrats kill their industries with high taxation and regulation and mandates, and then the union employees wonder why their companies are going under. Hint: It has nothing to do with Bush or the Republicans.
It’s not “Keynesian” to cut tax rates. Keynesian economics requires excessive taxation to fund the government spending and intervention into the private sector. There’s a little problem here, though, for the statist. It’s the people’s money to begin with – not the government’s. Of course, if you believe that all money belongs to THE GOVERNMENT and not to those who produced and made it, and that it’s the government’s job to distribute a salary or a ration to each citizen, then it makes perfect sense. But then, of course, you’d probably be a communist if you believe that.
The creative destruction argument is an interesting one, but I am not persuaded that, say, the collapse of the banking system would wrought any improvement out of the vast destruction that it would have caused. The same system and government regulations
incentivesthat created the collapse would have still been in place, but tens of millions of people would have been wiped out.Economics as practiced is not really a science, and confusing the intrusion of government into private life
economicwith morality (as the Democrats and communists do) is always dangerous. Some you need to tinker with the theory.Good Lt on August 25, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Goddam quote thing.
Good Lt on August 25, 2009 at 11:59 AM
How much longer does this moron get to play-act as the President of the United States? Somebody give him some crayons and sit him in the corner.
nico on August 25, 2009 at 11:59 AM
FIFY
profitsbeard on August 25, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Here’s the last part of that post, now with less confusion about the margins and block text.
Um, the banking industry is among the most heavily regulated by the government.
YOU CANNOT CLAIM THAT THE FREE MARKET (”THE SYSTEM”) DID THIS TO THE BANKING INDUSTRY WITHOUT ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THE BANKING INDUSTRY HAS BEEN SUBJECT TO MORE OPPRESSIVE AND INTRUSIVE GOVERNMENT REGULATION AND SCRUTINY THAN ANY OTHER INDUSTRY IN THE COUNTRY, AND THAT THIS HAD AN IMPACT ON ITS ABILITY TO FUNCTION PROPERLY.
Now, more regulation!
FTFY.
Now with more irony.
Good Lt on August 25, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Quite simply the government distorts demand by subsidizing the consumer. Since demand is greater than supply, prices go up.
Governemnt involvement needs to be sharply reduced in both areas. There will be pain and withdrawal from the government opium, but in the long run we will all be better off.
WashJeff on August 25, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Complete and utter lie.
Yes, Clinton, by a republican congress, and after his leftward tilt until losing congress in 1994, was forced to a) balance the budget; b) pass welfare reform and c) cut some taxes.
None of those things were things Clinton would have done had he kept congress and had his poll numbers not gone down. So citing this as some kind of “moderation” of the left is ridiculous.
the left, every election, goes after the rich and plays class warfare, ALWAYS calling for the rich to be taxed more. Always complaining about oil company profits, or health insurance profits, or what have you.
for you to claim otherwise is so dishonest as to be laughable.
And, the “rich” is not where the money is for tax revenue. Do some homework. The middle class is where the money has to come from. Unless of course, you, like Obama, define rich as earning more than $100k a year.
Well, since Obama’s stupid policies are causing catasrophe as we speak – 10% unemployment, unbelieveable defecits, etc., I think I have proof that his policies cause problems.
You, on the other hand, have no evidence that NOT bailing out the auto companies would have made things worse than they now are. And, my tax $$ wouldn’t be going to Obama’s bribes to the unions, which is all it was.
Monkeytoe on August 25, 2009 at 12:02 PM
It is all in how the numbers are presented.
ln(2,000,000,000,000) = 28. Problem solved
Jed_Eckert on August 25, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Excellent point. Add to that all of the promises about removing the influence of those eee-ville lobbyists! Of course, it’s no surprise to anyone who was paying the least bit of attention. When will people come to realize that the only reason special interests have so much power is because government has so much power. Increasing government control of our lives is the surest way to increase the power that special interest groups have over us.
MJBrutus on August 25, 2009 at 12:03 PM
What is your Moral justification for doing so?
Does this mean if you have more money than me, I can rob you at gunpoint?
Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 12:03 PM
This ‘best and brightest, most intelligent administration, ever’ has blown every projection it’s made so far. Why are we to suddenly believe their tea leaf readings for 2011?
GarandFan on August 25, 2009 at 12:04 PM
So you don’t know that with every major tax cut in history, tax revenues went up…you don’t know that very basic truth?
Even Clinton, when faced with a Republican majority, and proof of that fact, had to cut taxes, and scale back welfare.
Even he saw the truth in that statement, lowering taxes, lowering capitol gains, increases revenues, and revitalizes an economy.
So what is Obama doing, the exact opposite of his counterpart…and the exact opposite is happening…meanwhile, Europe is pulling out of the quagmire, because they didn’t buy into the stimulus myth.
Please, you seem like a nice person…don’t continue to embarrass yourself with your economic statements. Try another thread, you are beginning to be laughed at.
right2bright on August 25, 2009 at 12:04 PM
To back up your point, McGurn in the WSJ wrote about how the GOP saved the Clinton Presidency by allowing him, and he taking the opportunity, to move to the center.
WashJeff on August 25, 2009 at 12:05 PM
You don’t need a gun, you just need a bare majority to steal from your fellow citizens.
WashJeff on August 25, 2009 at 12:06 PM
1921 C DRUM on August 25, 2009 at 12:07 PM
I think what you meant to say is that you want to tax the rich because they have something you don’t.
If you drive a car, and a “lessor” person needs a car, will you be willing to give that up to him?
If you live in a home, would you mind moving into an apt. and give up your money so the homeless can live in an apt. also?
I doubt it…you are willing to sacrifice what others have, but not what you have…typical liberal.
right2bright on August 25, 2009 at 12:08 PM
I love how leftists all revere Clinton as the greatest president ever, but will argue that everything he did was horrible when we suggest it be done now:
A. Cut taxes
B. reform entitlements
C. Balance the budget / cut spending.
I know, I know, things are different now – but as I recall, Clinton got elected by claiming at the time that America was suffering from teh worst economy since the depression.
Monkeytoe on August 25, 2009 at 12:08 PM
According to IRS statistics, the richest 1% of American taxpayers (those earning above $389,000) earned 22% of the nation’s reported income. But their share of the nation’s income taxes was 40%. In other words, the wealthiest 1% of Americans’ income tax payments are almost twice as much as their “fair share.”
The same is true for other income levels as well. According to the IRS data, the wealthiest 5% of Americans earned 37% of the nation’s income, but paid some 60% of the nation’s income taxes. The top 25% of Americans earned 68% of the nation’s income, but paid 86% of the nation’s taxes.
And astonishingly, the top 50% of American earners brought in 88% of income dollars, but paid 97% of all income taxes in this country. Thus, half of the American population is paying almost the entirety of income taxes.
ICBM on August 25, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Most economic fallacies derive from the tendency to assume that there is a fixed pie, that one party can gain only at the expense of another.
Milton Friedman
Doorgunner on August 25, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Not at gunpoint, he is willing to give that too you through a government program…just ask him.
right2bright on August 25, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Oh this I have to hear. Please explain what a “regressive tax cut” is.
Chuck Schick on August 25, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Let me be blunt about it, leftist-Statists justify robbing – taxing the rich because it’s a form of control.
They then turn around and control others with that same money by handing it out in exchange for their support.
Leftist don’t give a rat’s a$$ about people – they clearly only want power, that’s it.
Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Chuck Schick on August 25, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Regressive taxes are sales taxes and such, for they hit the poor the hardest. That’s first.
Second, if I recall correctly, Clinton was dragged kicking and screaming to cut cap gains and dividend taxes by a Republican Congress. I believe he vetoed the bill twice before finally having no choice but to sign it or face an override of a third veto.
Again, the bank problem could have been forestalled last year but the Dems refused to revoke or modify the law they wrote and passed to force banks to make high-risk loans. That bill created the probability this banking mess would happen and Bush warned of it. But the Dems dug in their heels.
When Reagan cut taxes the Dems were out to spend $1.68 for every new dollar the cuts brought into the Treasury.
In Sept. 2007, the largest quarterly revenues in American history flowed into the Treasury, all b/c of the Bush tax cuts.
GM failed b/c it wasn’t putting out cars people wanted for operating costs, styling, etc. Then GM offered packages that drove up prices but were useless for most people–nice to have items like rearview mirrors on a fighter jet. Had GM paid attention to consumers’ interests, they might not be in such a situation.
Government has consequences. At best in this GM mater, I’d have maybe backed a Federal loan like was done with Chrysler in 1980 or so. Iacocca paid back that billion in a few years and kept the company alive for 30 more years. But he restructured, too, which GM failed to see as a value ten years ago.
These messes could have been avoided with genuine foresight on part of Congress and industrial execs. And now we have to pick up the pieces with an empty Treasury? Who in his right mind would spend $50,000 a year when his income is only $10,000? Unless he’s subsidized by the government or IS the government.
Liam on August 25, 2009 at 12:11 PM
NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) – A prominent banking analyst said on Sunday that 150 to 200 more U.S. banks will fail in the current banking crisis, and the industry’s payments to keep the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp afloat could eat up 25 percent of pretax income in 2010.
Richard Bove of Rochdale Securities said this will likely force the FDIC, which insures deposits, to turn increasingly to non-U.S. banks and private equity funds to shore up the banking system.
Akzed on August 25, 2009 at 12:13 PM
This is what happens when you elect a President who has never run a lemonade stand, much less the world’s largest economy.
barrythrowslikeagirl on August 25, 2009 at 12:14 PM
I like the way you think. So we’re really just dealing with an increase of e^28.3241683 dollars. That’s really not that bad, right? ~28 is small number.
strictnein on August 25, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Fred Zackely, Actually I’d really like to know what the Statist’s will do when the rich decide to go on strike – either incrementally as always or a general protest to fauxbama’s form of “change”.
Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 12:16 PM
or
Orszag should
resign as OMB directorbe in jail after thisperformancetreachery against the American people along with Dodd, Rangel, Frank, Schumer. (I have no expectations that he will, but he should.)OrszagObama should resign asOMB directorPresident after this performance. (I have no expectations that he will, but he should.)Christian Conservative on August 25, 2009 at 12:18 PM
Somebody has to be paying you to post this dog-squeeze in here, as nobody could truly be this mindlessly stupid.
At least, I don’t think people could be…
Dave R. on August 25, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Where’s your proof that it would have. You don’t get to float your own unprovable theory while shooting another one down.
BadgerHawk on August 25, 2009 at 12:23 PM
No, it’s not.
lorien1973 on August 25, 2009 at 12:23 PM
What is your Moral justification for doing so?
Does this mean if you have more money than me, I can rob you at gunpoint?
Can I kick you out of your house because it’s better than my apartment?
Can I take your car because I only ride a bike?
Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 12:24 PM
Even if GDP estimates are revised downward again from -2.8% to -3.5%, then this still implies GDP growth of 1.3% for 2H2009.
If you don’t think the MSM would tout 1.3% growth as an Obama success, then you are all crazy.
blink on August 25, 2009 at 12:28 PM
It is all in how the numbers are presented.
ln(2,000,000,000,000) = 28. Problem solved
Jed_Eckert on August 25, 2009 at 12:02 PM
I like the way you think. So we’re really just dealing with an increase of e^28.3241683 dollars. That’s really not that bad, right? ~28 is small number.
strictnein on August 25, 2009 at 12:16 PM
There was a mathematician named, I believe, Dysktra that once said “There are numbers that are so large most people cannot comprehend them And they begin at 11″.
Jed_Eckert on August 25, 2009 at 12:29 PM
Ed, you are starting to sound a bit like Gerald Celente.
I’m just sayin…
therightscoop on August 25, 2009 at 12:31 PM
You tax the rich because their actual taxes are lower than believed?????
That doesn’t make any sense.
blink on August 25, 2009 at 12:32 PM
LOL, dog sneeze. Now that’s funny.
Don’t feed the trolls. It will make you crazy and your blood pressure rise.
doctormom on August 25, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Tax cuts cause revenue to drop.
(Doesn’t have Bush tax cuts)
Includes Bush and also addresses specious “Spurs growth” claims.
The (Republican Era) CBO agrees.
The recent analysis by Mr. Page at the Congressional Budget Office dismisses the idea that tax cuts may actually improve the government’s fiscal situation. Even in his most generous scenario, only 28 percent of lost tax revenue is recouped over a 10-year period. The United States, it seems, is firmly planted on the left side of the Laffer Curve. Recent experience corroborates this prediction.
Myths die hard. Especially when they’re so pretty.
Bleeds Blue on August 25, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Creative accounting like the Dems did in the school lunch issue in the 90s. The wanted a 6% increase and compromised on 3%, then went out claiming the GOP ‘cut’ the program by 3%
Liam on August 25, 2009 at 12:32 PM
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