GDP decline twice as bad as Obama WH predicted

posted at 10:55 am on August 25, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

The latest retreat on economic credibility at the White House comes at a particularly bad time.  Barack Obama has tried to sell his economic agenda on health-care reform and cap-and-trade as economic boons instead of boondoggles.  However, his mid-year recasting of American economic performance and admission of the deficit impact of his budgets will continue to erode confidence in his competence:

U.S. unemployment will surge to 10 percent this year and the budget deficit will widen to $1.5 trillion next year, reflecting a “deeper recession” than previously expected, White House budget chief Peter Orszag said.

The Office of Management and Budget also forecasts that the U.S. economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year, worse than the 1.2 percent contraction the OMB projected in May. For next year, the budget office said the gross domestic product will grow 2.0 percent, less than the 3.2 percent expected in May. By 2011, the economy would be well on its way to recovery, growing at a 3.8 percent annual rate, according to the administration’s mid-year economic review, released this morning.

The budget shortfall for 2010 will mark the second straight year of trillion-dollar deficits. The projected deficit for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 is higher than the $1.26 trillion forecast in May and reflects expectations economic growth will be slower this year and next because of “the severity of the crisis in the U.S. and in our trading partners,” said Christina Romer, White House chief economist, who along with Orszag briefed reporters on the report.

Let’s recall the difference between Orszag’s OMB projections for the deficit in March, and the CBO’s numbers:

The difference between these projections was the prediction of Obama’s economic advisers of US economic performance.  They predicated their numbers, in the light pink, based on the entirely unrealistic expectation of getting -1.2% GDP growth this year, after the first quarter came in at -6% (annualized), later revised to -5.4%.  Even while the second quarter continued to look poor, the OMB continued with its sunny analysis.  Now that we’re in the middle of the third quarter and growth remains elusive — and more importantly, unemployment continues to rise — the White House has no fig leaf to hide their errors.

Why did the OMB hold out this long against CBO predictions?  Simple; the Obama administration needed sunnier numbers in order to justify its plans to spend vast sums of money on its social-engineering agenda.  Even in the best of times, these programs would be disastrous, but during a deep recession, they will kill any hope of economic growth.  In short, OMB indulged in political hackery, hoping to continue their deception long enough to get ObamaCare and cap-and-trade through a compliant Congress.  Now they have to admit that they either conducted an incompetent analysis while most significant economists scoffed at their projections for growth, or cooked the books.

Orszag should resign as OMB director after this performance.  (I have no expectations that he will, but he should.)  Remaining in the President’s budget office only extends the credibility crisis to everything else produced by the White House on the economic agenda.  How can anyone trust Obama and Orszag after the complete failures of Porkulus and the budget projections, especially given the political manipulations involved?


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We tax the rich not because we hate them, but because that’s where the money is.
Bleeds Blue on August 25, 2009 at 11:55 AM

Hey BB, ever read Atlas Shrugged? What happens when the earners decide not to earn any more? When they get tired of people like you feeling entitled to what they earn and decide now would be a good time to take it easy, fire a few employees, ratchet back the business? Why work so hard when it’s just going to be taxed away from you?

Here’s my solution. No Representation Without Taxation. If you don’t pay income taxes, you don’t get to vote. That would eliminate a whole lot of voters who have no skin in the game but get to vote to punish the earners.

MADgirl91 on August 25, 2009 at 3:52 PM

We tax the rich not because we hate them, but because that’s where the money is.
Bleeds Blue on August 25, 2009 at 11:55 AM

Hey BB–I make money the old fashioned way…I EARN it. What makes you think you’re entitled to it?

If I get an A in a class because I studied and you get a C because you didn’t, you’d think our grades should be averaged so we’d both get a B. Even third graders know this is wrong.

MADgirl91 on August 25, 2009 at 4:01 PM

Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 3:17 PM

Stand to the Constitution. Consider this: Our Founders were so stupid they more or less had to come to the point. Take their words plainly, not literally, and your mind is free. Understand their intent, and work from there.
The Constitution is ‘living’, but only in the sense it can be amended as per the IXth Amendment: “Nothing in this Constitution shall be construed as to deny other rights retained by the People.”
Liam on August 25, 2009 at 3:35 PM

I would agree about standing to the Constitution, but I would say that the founders were intelligent enough to know human nature and that some would want to attain power over others as has been the case for time immemorial.
They had the wisdom to construct a limited government that has stood the test of time – for now – It maybe could have been written a little better, and made more clearer, but it set up a system that works.

Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 4:05 PM

Hey BB–I make money the old fashioned way…I EARN it. What makes you think you’re entitled to it
?MADgirl91 on August 25, 2009 at 4:01 PM

Because you “earned” it (surely on the backs of the poor) and others can’t do as well as you. That’s not their fault, but yours. Now shut up and fork it over. You’ll feel better in the end after you get over your Medieval Reaganite notions. ‘sarc

Liam on August 25, 2009 at 4:07 PM

Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 4:05 PM

I was being totally sarcastic about the Founders being ‘stupid’. They got right to the point, with clarity. It was the Age of Enlightenment, after all. And the Founders were the most enlightened of all.

Liam on August 25, 2009 at 4:11 PM

Breaking news. Federal judge has ruled the Fed must disclose who received TARP money and must give an accounting under a FOIA request by Bloomberg News.

Seems the cockroaches might be running from the light, but what if the walls supporting our financial system are built of cockroaches?

riverrat10k on August 25, 2009 at 4:30 PM

Liam on August 25, 2009 at 4:11 PM

Sorry , I meant to mention in my posting that I thought that was the case, but it slipped my mind whilst I was writing it.

You’re right though, it was the age of enlightenment and they were all learned men.

Too bad we all can’t live up to their example.

Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 4:51 PM

None of this negative news is true. It’s all myths. You should report all these articles and any others you find to the White House.

Daggett on August 25, 2009 at 4:54 PM

Yeah, well Obama is about 4 times worse then I ever imagined, so by his arithmetic, he is twice as good as I thought.

right2bright on August 25, 2009 at 4:58 PM

He is so bad that the liberal trolls are in hiding…

right2bright on August 25, 2009 at 4:58 PM

This is no surprise to all of us who know Obama is just like Baghdad Bob

bluegrass on August 25, 2009 at 5:04 PM

This is scary.

Terrye on August 25, 2009 at 5:12 PM

Gulp. Not celebration time. I pray the President sends away his team and calls on help from the adults. Abandon this utopian fantasy (a nightmare for liberty). This is a wonderful country for all its human flaws. I pray it remains worthy of its former blessings. God knows we and the next generation will pay for these mistakes.

clorensen on August 25, 2009 at 5:18 PM

Gulp. Not celebration time. I pray the President sends away his team and calls on help from the adults. Abandon this utopian fantasy (a nightmare for liberty). This is a wonderful country for all its human flaws. I pray it remains worthy of its former blessings. God knows we and the next generation will pay for these mistakes.

clorensen on August 25, 2009 at 5:18 PM

Well said. +1000

Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 5:35 PM

what’s the matter–you don’t trust us.

rjoco1 on August 25, 2009 at 5:38 PM

Gulp. Not celebration time. I pray the President sends away his team and calls on help from the adults. Abandon this utopian fantasy (a nightmare for liberty). This is a wonderful country for all its human flaws. I pray it remains worthy of its former blessings. God knows we and the next generation will pay for these mistakes.

clorensen on August 25, 2009 at 5:18 PM

ARRGH Don’t pray for that!!!

He’ll just “send away his team” and install ultra-radical socialist CZARS in their place to elude the senate vetting and confirmation process.

It really isn’t a coincidence that this administration has triple the number of czars as any previous one while at the same time half their OFFICIAL cabinet positions remain unfilled seven months after inauguration.

If __I__ was a crypto-socialist manchurian candidate processed and managed by dynastic oligarchs of Chicago __I__ wouldn’t know anyone that would survive a reasonable confirmation process either.

Hell, even Sotomayor was originally a Bush appointee, the man Obama wanted (Harold Koh) is an avowed internationalist and Obama touted his “moderation”.

This guy simply did not circulate among people who had any grounding on reality.

Khorum on August 25, 2009 at 5:42 PM

How’s about we pray that he attains the wisdom to turn away from the complete failure that is Statism?

Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 5:55 PM

This administration will destroy our economic systems.

”In the coming years, no bureaucrat will be as decisive as Peter Orszag,” Ezra Klein wrote recently in The American Prospect. So, who is Peter Richard Orszag and what kind of decisions will he make with the budget he controls? (Based on his background one would be well advised to prepare for a financial trainwreck.)

Oddly, Orszag’s background has received virtually no attention in the media. At this critical moment, however, it would be foolish to ignore the troubling background of Obama’s budget director, which deserves to be looked at very carefully. Orszag, for example, could start by explaining exactly what happened to the Icelandic economy. Orszag was, after all, the founder and president of the economic consultancy firm which advised the Central Bank of Iceland – before it went bankrupt. How did Icelandic banks become so indebted? Ask Peter Orszag.

Orszag is an economist who served six years in the Clinton administration (1993-8) under Robert E. Rubin, the former treasury secretary who recently resigned from his senior position at the woefully mismanaged and nearly bankrupt Citigroup. The fact that Orszag was a protege of the now disgraced Rubin certainly does not bode well for the Obama administration.

Rubin strongly opposed the regulation of derivatives when such regulation was proposed in 1997. Credit derivatives of mortgage-backed securities were the key reason for the recent failure of a number of large financial institutions, including AIG and Citigroup.

In 1999, Rubin joined Citigroup as a board member and a participant “in strategic managerial and operational matters of the Company.” The Wall Street Journal noted that Citigroup shareholders suffered losses of more than 70 percent since Rubin joined the firm and that he encouraged changes that led the firm to the brink of collapse. In December 2008, investors filed a lawsuit contending that Citigroup executives, including Rubin, sold shares at inflated prices while concealing the firm’s risks.

Orszag, a Jew, served on the president’s Council of Economic Advisers in 1993, under Rubin, when the Israeli Rahm Emanuel, Clinton’s senior adviser, was pushing the disastrous NAFTA legislation through Congress. Prior to joining the Clinton team Orszag was an economic adviser for the Russian Ministry of Finance in Moscow from 1992-93. This was a period of rampant financial criminality during which many Russian mineral assets came under the control of the so-called Jewish oligarchs who became instant billionaires. Most of these oligarchs fled Russia when their crimes were exposed and now live in Britain or Israel, where they obtained citizenship.

Born in Boston on December 16, 1968, Orszag graduated from Princeton University in 1991. He then attended the London School of Economics, where he earned a degree in 1992 and where he obtained his PhD in 1997. The London School of Economics was established by members of the Fabian Society, who believed in advancing socialism through gradual reforms.

The Fabian Society is a British socialist movement, whose purpose is to advance the principles of Social democracy via gradualist and reformist, rather than revolutionary means. The ideology of the Fabians is said to be described in the quote, “Fabianism feeds on Capitalism, but excretes Communism.”

In 1998, after serving in the Clinton administration, Orszag co-founded an economic consulting group company with his brother and Joseph Stiglitz called Sebago Associates, where he served as president through 2007. The firm’s clients have included the World Bank, the Nordic Council of Ministers, and most notably, the Central Bank of Iceland. The once prosperous economy of Iceland has been devastated by the current economic crisis, which its citizens say was carried out by a gang of financial criminals who followed disastrous policies and advice – provided by Peter Orszag and Company.

Americans need to be vigilant with dangerous “Young Turks” like Peter Orszag and Rahm Emanuel running the Obama White House and the U.S. budget.

marklmail on August 25, 2009 at 5:59 PM

Dat young man done went and got him a sixth grade Harvard education. You knows he can cipher. If you don’t just ask him.

bluegrass on August 25, 2009 at 6:02 PM

Nothing to see here folks….return to your homes…

phadedjaded on August 25, 2009 at 6:38 PM

Hey BB, ever read Atlas Shrugged? What happens when the earners decide not to earn any more? When they get tired of people like you feeling entitled to what they earn and decide now would be a good time to take it easy, fire a few employees, ratchet back the business? Why work so hard when it’s just going to be taxed away from you?

MADgirl91 on August 25, 2009 at 3:52 PM
————

We did just that this year. I had the wife retire (quite early), and I have slowed my business to the point that I will not incur punitive taxes. I have no employees, and have dropped some expensive services as I don’t need them now. We are selling our home in the city, and have moved to our country place. Luckily I can work from out here, running to the city only when necessary. I sold my largest real estate holding and carried the mortgage, which spreads the tax liability out, and provides income (some of which is taxed as a capital gain). Life is simpler, no more rat race, expensive clothes, expensive dinners out, rush hours, dry cleaning or parking tickets, and local taxes are lower out here. We drive less so our cars will last longer. I don’t have to get my cars environmentally inspected any more. I don’t pay the public transportation tax (and many other nuisance taxes) now. Car insurance and home insurance bills are lower, as are car registration fees.

I work less and enjoy life more. I moved up my retirement by about 6 years for me and 12 years for my wife. She’s quite pleased also, as you can imagine. Those years would have been our highest earning period, but we decided to not be galley-slaves for Obama’s utopia. Let the liberals row the boat since this new system is their idea.

I’m not alone, check the federal tax receipts for this year.

Meremortal on August 25, 2009 at 6:41 PM

Conclusion: OMB is racist.

jukin on August 25, 2009 at 6:46 PM

Bleeds Blue on August 25, 2009

I ask again. Are you retarded? Seriously.

angryed on August 25, 2009 at 7:54 PM

THis last 6 mionths, as hard as they have been to our country, are the perfect teaching moment of what happens when you leave a Communist in charge. It happens over and over every time.

Jeff from WI on August 25, 2009 at 8:17 PM

How is it the wheels haven’t fallen off the mo-beel home once called “America” yet? What is keeping us afloat?

Dr. ZhivBlago on August 25, 2009 at 8:30 PM

economic credibility at the White House

What exactly was his economic plan again? Let congress go hog wild?

jhffmn on August 25, 2009 at 8:38 PM

Bleeds Blue on August 25, 2009 at 11:55 AM

Over and over and over again, only to be met with denial, lies, obfuscation, and distraction.

Keynesian economics DO NOT WORK.

Taking MORE in taxed REDUCES revenue. Did you NEANDERTHALS not listen to John F. Kennedy? Hm?

This simply proves that these lying, deceitful liberal NEANDERTHALS aren’t concerned about solvency, or the little guy, they just want their power and money…oddly, the same thing the NEANDERTHAL LIBERALS accuse conservatives of.

Hmm, isn’t that just strange.

Spiritk9 on August 25, 2009 at 8:49 PM

You look at the deficit graphs for 2004-8 and OH MY GOD the deficit actually went down. Hell we almost had a surplus.

Obama now says all of our economic evils are based in Bush policies; hmm, does he NOT see that the deficit went down?

Fast forward to today…the deficit is insanely high, the projections are ridiculously high and you have people like BB defending O’s policies still good God man!
Wake up. Would it kill this admin. to actually reduce some taxes?? Would all of their hearts explode spontaneously? I mean WTF?
Obama: “Hm, the deficit projections are going to be 2 trillion dollars higher then we previously thought…steady as she goes!”

BB doesn’t seem like a typicla liberal douchebag, but holy cow, get rid of the g-d ideology.
What is so hard to understand about what Obama has been doing and what he continues to do?
It’s like BB is arguing in favor of keeping the deficits rising to infinity.

This class warfare bs is insanity.

B Man on August 25, 2009 at 8:56 PM

You look at the deficit graphs for 2004-8 and OH MY GOD the deficit actually went down. Hell we almost had a surplus.

That’s absurd, deficits ranging from $200 to $350 bil do not constitute an ‘almost’ surplus. The only surplus you see in the graph came from the Clinton years, when tax rates were higher and spending was lower. No matter who inherits the level of deficit spending established by W, it’s going to take many, many years to close the gap. New, proposed spending programs may add to the deficit, but are not the source of it.

You also may have trouble grasping the nature of the closing deficit figures in the last 2 years of Bush’s term. Tax revenues were higher as a result of a major bubble in the housing and finance sectors of the economy. Those bubbles provided higher taxes in a completely artificial way- it wasn’t a modern ‘miracle’ of supply side economics at work. In other words, the economy won’t generate the same level of tax revenue at any time in the near future (probably not within a decade) at today’s tax rates.

The CBO insists that the only way to reduce the deficit is to combine tax increases with spending cuts. It’s a bitter combination but it’s time for Americans to face reality.

bayam on August 25, 2009 at 9:23 PM

Hm, spending cuts. Yeah not gonna happen with this admin.

Just think the deficit was at 158 billion in 2007, was it?
Those were the days.

B Man on August 25, 2009 at 9:28 PM

On second thought, next year when the republicans take over at least the house and maybe the senate, we might see those spending cuts.
So the deficit might start going down in 2011.

B Man on August 25, 2009 at 9:31 PM

We need more stimulus

/sarc x100000000

CWforFreedom on August 25, 2009 at 9:46 PM

Real unemployment is much higher than that.

Off-topic but very important. Just got an email from Democracy for America with the title “5 more Senators to get to 50,” I point it out only for informations sake. It seems they think they’ve secured 45 votes.

True_King on August 25, 2009 at 10:09 PM

Obama being shocked about the economy tanking is like a trophy wife standing on her dying and bedridden rich old husband’s air hose. “He was doing fine a second ago. I don’t know what happened. Can we get to the reading of will now?”

From Obama, to Van Jones, to Reid and Pelosi, to Kennedy and Frank, to greenies and meanies, and those who would make billions, there are many, many who would want to cripple and rob our nation. I tried to categorize the main players by motivation at my website.

http://truthandcommonsense.com/2009/08/23/why-socialize-america-lets-play-the-agenda-game/

Regardless of why, the perfect storm is upon us. I watched Pat Caddell, the old school democrat, on Beck the other day and he kept repeating over and over, as though he was shocked from the realization, that it was about theft. That “they” were stealing from the country.

Pat was part of the problem years ago, when there was plenty of money and everybody had their hand till saying it was only “fair.” Now he realizes, with guilt I think, that he and his friends of that day are responsible. I think he is trying to say he was sorry.

archer52 on August 25, 2009 at 11:24 PM

Let’s do this again …….

Hussein has done little to nothing to stimulate the GDP. You can’t increase the GDP if Businesses are closing and unemployment is rising! Crap and Tax will create how many Green Jobs and close down how many businesses and unemploy how many people?

Why is it so hard for this Clown and his Administration to understand that?

BigMike252 on August 25, 2009 at 11:28 PM

Communists believe all private property is theft, and we have a communist government trying to force it on all of us. Perilous times indeed.

Dhuka on August 25, 2009 at 11:51 PM

They must have misunderestimatedit, again.

Geochelone on August 26, 2009 at 3:12 AM

Geochelone on August 26, 2009 at 3:12 AM

But they are firmly convinced of the accuracy of this latest estimate. That is the right one.

Geochelone on August 26, 2009 at 3:13 AM

Like the weather prediction of a few decades ago, we received over 15 inches of snow flurries.

Life would be so much better for all of us if Obama had just pretended to play weather person instead of president. That way he would only mess up a picnic or two.

Don L on August 26, 2009 at 6:40 AM

Wait until they get wind of the foreclosure rate over the fall and winter.

Saltysam on August 26, 2009 at 8:03 AM

With today’s release of new budget projections from the Obama administration showing deficits totaling more than $9 trillion over the next 10 years, The Concord Coalition said that cost control must be the primary focus of health care reform and called for a bipartisan deficit reduction plan. Furthermore, the administration’s numbers are optimistic when compared to what would occur if we simply extended current policy. The Concord Coalition Plausible Baseline, created using the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) updated projections, shows that current policy would lead to $14.4 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years.

Concord Coalition

agmartin on August 26, 2009 at 8:21 AM

When will the shilling, brain dead media stop making excuses for Obama and his gaggle of incompetent fools?

rplat on August 26, 2009 at 8:23 AM

If our elite ruling class would allow the US oil industry to tap our natural resources, allow the building of new nuclear power plants and unleash capitalism’s dynamic engine, America could begin to dig itself back to prosperity. But of course the Obamacrats would rather bankrupt the country in the name of their Marxist gods.

How is it that these radicals are allowed to remain in office? Big money = Political Power

RandyChandler on August 26, 2009 at 9:16 AM

From The Heritage Foundation:
The public national debt–$5.8 trillion as of 2008–is projected to double by 2012 and nearly triple by 2019. Thus, America would accumulate more government debt under President Obama than under every President in American history from George Washington to George W. Bush combined.
Any questions?

Cybergeezer on August 26, 2009 at 11:09 AM

by 2019…. 14.4 trillion debt

.

http://www.concordcoalition.org/learn/budget/concord-coalition-plausible-baseline

ms on August 26, 2009 at 11:16 AM

If you want to measure the eonomy, follow foreclosures. They tell the truth. At the point everyone in America has walked away from their mortgage and bought a foreclsure for a couple thousand the first round of musical chairs will end.

That happens when they finally raise the interest rate and consumer credit becomes unpayable

All depends on whether some nation bolts and decides to intiate the next world war. If war waits too long, the second housing collapse comes as the boomers fall off their houses by debt or aging and the market exceeds population. Those houses were supposed to be money in the bank for old age as boomers replaced the concept of ‘inheritance’ with ‘consumption’

I had an argument a few years ago with an economist who prepared analyses for one of the Big Three. He argued we should simply cancel our national debt. I took the other side. Now, I concede he was onto something. The national debt is on track to being reset to zero by depreciation of assets and financial collapse.

entagor on August 26, 2009 at 12:17 PM

The TITANIC didn’t have a Captain this stupid…

Khun Joe on August 26, 2009 at 2:01 PM

They had the wisdom to construct a limited government that has stood the test of time – for now until now
Chainsaw56 on August 25, 2009 at 4:05 PM

The fox is already in the hen house and devouring chickens as we speak. The founding fathers would have rallied the troops by now if this government were in power back then.

Goodeye_Closed on August 26, 2009 at 4:14 PM

At first I thought that said, “GOP decline”.

Probably true as well.

Dr. ZhivBlago on August 26, 2009 at 4:23 PM

by 2019…. 14.4 trillion debt
ms on August 26, 2009 at 11:16 AM

This is the number I’m hearing everywhere today and I plan on checking with the MSM tonight to see if it will be reported.

This is COMPLETELY unsustainable…no question,no dispute on that fact. If this is true, we are headed toward total economic collapse and down the same road as the former USSR.

It is now time for some hardcore political activism. We need mass demonstrations in Washington.

Goodeye_Closed on August 26, 2009 at 4:29 PM

I continue to believe that “they” don’t care. The main goal is to grow the government with more power over individuals. To put in place all the legislation and people to achieve the type of country they want. This is hard to most of us to take seriously from our government, but it is hard to ignore the things that are happening on a daily basis.

hillbilly on August 26, 2009 at 5:52 PM

Cloward Piven my boys, Cloward Piven……

bullseye on August 27, 2009 at 9:35 AM

Part of todays post from Karl Denniger on The Market Ticker.
This is part of his post relating to the ruling to get the Federal Reserve to reveal the recipents of bailout funds. The Fed is, of course, fighting the release.

“The Fed is hiding the insolvency of banks. They, along with their handmaidens in Congress (which is where you work Mr. Sanders) even went further and twisted the arm of FASB to legalize intentional accounting distortions that I argue amount to fraud.

The truth of what has been done keeps peeking around the corner in the form of bank failures and FDIC deposit insurance fund losses, with the latest charade being Colonial Bank that was carrying assets thirty seven percent above where its acquiring bank believes is a reasonable mark on the day prior to being taken over, and which in the FDIC’s last published release was considered “well-capitalized!”

These losses and the costs of this cover-up are being forcibly extracted from The American People literally at gunpoint through the issuance of hundreds of billions of Treasury Debt which we, our children and grandchildren will have to repay – a staggering total that the CBO and Obama Administration now admit will total nine trillion dollars over the next ten years.”

Read that last paragraph carefully folks. Many bankers, politicians, and regulators need to be in prison.

riverrat10k on August 27, 2009 at 11:20 AM

Once the economy has been crippled, and unemployment hits all time highs, Obama can put together his “Civilian Force” with ease since no one will be able to find any sustenance otherwise. Looking like Cuba yet?

Cybergeezer on August 28, 2009 at 9:27 AM

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