Harry Reid in deep trouble: Mason-Dixon

posted at 11:36 am on August 24, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Until recently, few Republicans had wanted to challenge Harry Reid for his Senate seat in Nevada, as Reid had built a huge warchest and had expected to use it to coast to victory.  New polling, however, shows that Reid is quite vulnerable even with his campaign coffers stuffed to the brim.  Danny Tarkanian, a relative newcomer to Nevada politics, has an eleven-point lead on Reid in the latest Mason-Dixon polling in Nevada, and the state GOP chairwoman also leads Reid:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trailing a top Republican challenger by 11 points ahead of next year’s election, according to a new poll.

The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey, reported Sunday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, showed GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian leading Reid by 49 percent to 38 percent in Nevada.

Tarkanian is a former basketball player for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and recently announced his candidacy.

The new poll also showed Sue Lowden, chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and a possible candidate, leading Reid by 45 percent to 40 percent.

The shock may come from an incumbent unable to get even 40% of the vote in a state he’s represented for 22 years.  Incumbents whose numbers drop below 50% are usually considered vulnerable but not sure bets to lose office.  When it drops to 38%, that usually means career counseling and imminent retirement.

Under any other circumstances, that’s what Reid would do, but he can’t afford to retire now.  He would be the second Democratic Senate Majority Leader in a row to get thrown out of office by his own constituents (Tom Daschle got a compulsory retirement from South Dakotans), and he can’t allow that to happen by default with a retirement.  The embarrassment would permanently damage the Democratic agenda in the Senate and take what little luster remains of the Obama administration. The Democrats have to fight for Reid, which makes the stakes even higher for them — and the embarrassment even worse if he loses.

Will Reid try to save himself by retreating on ObamaCare and cap-and-trade?  Normally I’d guess yes, but I’m not sure that Reid will get the luxury of listening to his constituents.  If he wants a big Democratic Party rescue, he’ll need the national interests pushing for both big agenda items, especially the unions and the hard-Left organizers.  Without them, he’s sunk, big warchest or not.  Also, he’s probably boxed into the Obama agenda thanks to his actions this year and the yoke he shares with Nancy Pelosi and Obama.  It’s probably too late to salvage independents in Nevada already.

What happens if Reid loses?  Dick Durbin (D-IL) would almost certainly take the helm from Reid, which may not be a good outcome for either Republicans or Democrats.  Nevadans apparently believe that they can get addition through subtraction, however, and Reid looks likely to exit after 2010, barring some electoral miracle in his state — a very expensive miracle that might soak up all of the money needed to fight other midterm battles.


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Harry needs to go before the Political Death Panel and see if he’s worth saving…

Keef Overbite on August 24, 2009 at 12:56 PM

Almost every election where the vote is extremely close and requires a recount goes to the party whose holding the Attorney General position.

JadeNYU on August 24, 2009 at 12:04 PM

Maybe that’s why the Democrats were so upset about FL. They figured that holding the AG position should have made Gore a shoe-in.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Getting these particular idiots replaced by newer idiots on the left means that these particular people will be out of power and their replacements will have to start building seniority before screwing things up as part of the leadership.

teke184 on August 24, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Which is why the Democrats keep re-electing the same kleptocrats over and over again. For the left, power trumps ethics every time.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 1:02 PM

Harry will call forth all the hotel worker unions and vanquish any fool cowboy that tries to challenge him. If there was ever a place for ACORN to be put to work it is Las Vegas. Never doubt the power of the vote counters.

Limerick on August 24, 2009 at 1:02 PM

Reid keeps pushing the Won’s agenda IMO because he’s knows he will lose in 2010 but I bet Rahm has promised him a prominent position with the administration.

HoustonRight on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

Houston, you bring up an interesting point. Perhaps this is why The Won hasn’t filled many posts, he is keeping them open to fill with former congress and senate members (you know-the one’s who vote for BambiCare)

JusDreamin on August 24, 2009 at 1:03 PM

Danny Tarkanian is a very shady character, and the NV GOP would be very unwise to nominate him. Bob Beers would be a good candidate. Joe Heck would also be a good matchup, but I think he’s planning on running for Governor against Gibbons.

JohnGalt23 on August 24, 2009 at 1:18 PM

Heck, this next election cycle will likely see the most unlikely of election outcomes. There are people in safe districts, who will be thrown out on their ear. There are people in close races, who will get trampled.

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security

New Guards. New Guards indeed.

the class of conservative freshmen in 2011 should be called The New Guards.

ted c on August 24, 2009 at 1:19 PM

If us “dumb hicks” here in South Dakota were smart enough to dump Daschle surely those Nevadans could wake up and do it to….

I remember how people were shocked that we would vote out such a powerful member of congress. Guess it all makes sense now huh?!

proudteadrinker on August 24, 2009 at 1:28 PM

Tom Foley all over again.

Socratease on August 24, 2009 at 1:30 PM

Alpha Mike Foxtrott

jwp1964 on August 24, 2009 at 1:30 PM

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 12:54 PM

What’s it like living in Vegas? I have a business and thought about moving it down there b/c of taxes. It’s a pretty mobile operation. Is vegas basically the strip and new housing developments, or it is more? Someone told me the housing is like Orange County, but without the ocean.

IR-MN on August 24, 2009 at 1:32 PM

this is a win win situation for the USA

same thing to happen to Ms Botox

bluegrass on August 24, 2009 at 1:34 PM

Bye bye Hawwy Weed you Wascally Wabbit!

scalleywag on August 24, 2009 at 1:37 PM

couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

angryed on August 24, 2009 at 1:39 PM

“What’s it like living in Vegas? IR-MN on August 24, 2009 at 1:32 PM”

I’m a bit outdated, having moved from Vegas in 1994, but there is a lot of business done in LV which never touches the casinos or the strip. Plus, as they say, you don’t have to shovel sunshine.

Doug on August 24, 2009 at 1:40 PM

My wife has a bunch of friends and relatives who still live in Vegas. Most of them would move if they could, but they can’t sell their houses.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 12:54 PM

I am lucky enough to own real estate in the only town in this country that’s booming, good ol’ Washington DC.

So the Obama administration’s stunning incompetence and corruption has actually benefited me. The value is pretty much back to 2006 levels.

NoDonkey on August 24, 2009 at 1:42 PM

Danny Tarkanian links:
Introductory video

Twitter
Facebook

Myspace

Help defeat Senator Harry Reid on Novemeber 2, 2010.

Yes we can!

Loxodonta on August 24, 2009 at 1:43 PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trailing a top Republican challenger by 11 points ahead of next year’s election, according to a new poll.
The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey, reported Sunday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, showed GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian leading Reid by 49 percent to 38 percent in Nevada.
Tarkanian is a former basketball player for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and recently announced his candidacy.
The new poll also showed Sue Lowden, chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and a possible candidate, leading Reid by 45 percent to 40 percent.

Reid is not alone in his precipitous drop in the polls. Several Dem’s, particularily at the fore-front of the Obama agenda, look to be handily cast out of office. Yet they blithely steam-roller on as if without a care.

Why? Do they know something that we do not?

Without wanting to stray into the realm of the tin-foil hat, are they possibly so confident that ACORN & Co.(think census & Project Vote) will be able skew the elections? Or, really wandering off the reservation here, that some “national emergrency” might be used to delay or circumvent elections at all?

I know this sounds like “black helicopter” talk, but really, how else explains the apparent disregard for the polls?

Just askin.

Archimedes on August 24, 2009 at 1:46 PM

How do these seeming incompetents rise to the top of the d’rats party anyway?! It will be a day of celebration to see Harry Reid sent back to a noisy smoky casino full of one-armed bandits and trailer-trash gambling away their social security checks.

ornery_independent on August 24, 2009 at 1:49 PM

What happens if Reid loses? Dick Durbin (D-IL) would almost certainly take the helm from Reid, which may not be a good outcome for either Republicans or Democrats.

Wow another Illinois a$$hat in a position of power? I can see Rahm and da’ Won throwin’ old Harry under the bus. Hey, it the Chicago way!

ChicagoBlues on August 24, 2009 at 1:49 PM

And do not let the door hit you in the ass on your way out, you crook.

Terrye on August 24, 2009 at 2:09 PM

Waterloo….

right2bright on August 24, 2009 at 2:16 PM

Great, Harry will no longer be available for comment!
It’s clear that he has lost the interest of his constituents. Next …. The CIA Lied Mis-Led Congress Pelosi.

BigMike252 on August 24, 2009 at 2:26 PM

Harry Reid has dont NOTHING for Nevada! Our unemployment is 13+% and our housing market is dismal. He has run out about 3000 well paying, high-tech jobs from the Department of Energy. His train from Las Vegas to Victorville idea is a joke! He is the worst sort of politician and the worst Senate Majority leader in history! His “clout” in the Senate means nothing to Nevada. We MUST remove him from office!!

JonR on August 24, 2009 at 2:31 PM

Correction: Harry Reid has done NOTHING for Nevada!

JonR on August 24, 2009 at 2:32 PM

On top of the polls, Reid has also lost the votes of the Dallas Cowboys and Mickey Mouse (since ACORN has been shut down).

djaymick on August 24, 2009 at 2:36 PM

I am a Nevadan and I plan on devoting as much time as I can to getting that idiot out of office. I have 3 young children and two on the way…but it is that important to me. I will be doing all that I can. The guy is reprehensible. Whether it is my time, or my money, or both. It is a good investment for our state and more importantly, for our country.

kelbow1600 on August 24, 2009 at 3:00 PM

I will believe this the day the vote comes in and he has lost his seat. Until then, I am hoping for a change!

rukiddingme on August 24, 2009 at 3:14 PM

Reid is not alone in his precipitous drop in the polls. Several Dem’s, particularily at the fore-front of the Obama agenda, look to be handily cast out of office. Yet they blithely steam-roller on as if without a care.

Why? Do they know something that we do not?

Without wanting to stray into the realm of the tin-foil hat, are they possibly so confident that ACORN & Co.(think census & Project Vote) will be able skew the elections? Or, really wandering off the reservation here, that some “national emergrency” might be used to delay or circumvent elections at all?

I know this sounds like “black helicopter” talk, but really, how else explains the apparent disregard for the polls?

Just askin.

Well…First off, Harry and these other jerks who’ve been in Congress forever have an arrogance problem. Now I’m sure they’re counting on ACORN and the census to help secure their positions, but beyond that, the election is over a year away and a lot can happen in a year. Voters are famous for forgetting anything that isn’t pounded into their heads via Television. The news won’t make them look bad and the GOP’s record for TV spots of late is pathetic.

However…I think that many of these jerks in Congress that have been there since Hector was a pup don’t truly realize that the rules have changed and they’re using the old playbook. (Remember when Clinton flat out lied about “landing under fire” during the primary?) I expect many of these incumbents to find themselves on the wrong side of many a “anyone-but-him” vote.

Browncoatone on August 24, 2009 at 3:49 PM

ACORN stuffing ballot boxes, to the rescue!!!!!!!!

capejasmine on August 24, 2009 at 3:55 PM


The surge has failed. . .

“Harry Reid is toast. . .” The surge of reality.

smellthecoffee on August 24, 2009 at 3:56 PM

Harrys gonna miss all those stinking tourist when he moves back with the rattlesnakes don’t you know.

bluegrass on August 24, 2009 at 4:13 PM

Harry needs to go before the Political Death Panel and see if he’s worth saving…

Keef Overbite on August 24, 2009 at 12:56 PM

I love it when the first post I read splits my sides with laughter, thank you Keef

aceinstall on August 24, 2009 at 4:18 PM

Archimedes on August 24, 2009 at 1:46 PM

This may sound way out there but could it be he really believes he’s right about all this stuff and is willing to go down fighting for it? Either way I hope he goes.

aceinstall on August 24, 2009 at 4:28 PM

I just saw a C-SPAN program the other day with Tom Daschle interviewing Reid about his book. It was excruciating to watch with Reid calling Daschle his “Forever Friend.” All that was missing was the Barney music (the dinosaur, not Frank). Now it looks like Reid could leave his post the exact same way that Daschle did in 2002. Wow.

You might also check this out. From the same interview: Harry Reid promising to never, ever use the nuclear option to pass a bill as leader of the Senate.

Reid in 2008: Nuclear Option Will Ruin This Country

libertyb4wealth on August 24, 2009 at 4:40 PM

I grew up in Nevada. Not withstanding a million ass-hats in Las Vegas. 99% of the land mass and it’s inhabitants are very conservative and embarrassed to their core having that fool as their face in Washington.

With the housing/growth in Vegas burst, and the idiot Reid standing there holding the poker, even the Lost Wages libtards have to know enough is enough!

Wow. I feel strangely cleansed.

IdaWizard on August 24, 2009 at 4:54 PM

“What’s it like living in Vegas?
IR-MN on August 24, 2009 at 1:32 PM”

I lived there for 5 years. It’s like living anywhere else except gas stations and grocery stores have slot machines. Oh and when it’s 98 in July you think, hmmm kinda cool outside. No joke. I remember when high temps were “only” in the upper 90s in the summer I’d think I better get out and play some golf before it gets hot again.

angryed on August 24, 2009 at 5:55 PM

I’d love to see Son Of Tark kick Reid out of the Senate.

Maybe he can do a fundraiser by selling the towels his father would slobber on as a coach at UNLV and Fresno State.

teke184 on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

I was wondering if he was Tark the Sharks spawn. Very cool; I’d love to see that too.

Ann NY on August 24, 2009 at 5:58 PM

Hey, Dirty Harry, do ya feel lucky? Well do ya?

Mangy Scot on August 24, 2009 at 9:39 PM

I fear that no democrat as powerful as Dirty Harry will have to worry about re-election. The unions and the mafia will see to it that he stays in their service in the senate. For as long as he continues to deliver for the special interests he is a slave to, elections will continue to be bought for him.

Bert Convy on August 24, 2009 at 10:13 PM

Unlike Senator Reid’s repeated petulant outbursts at people who disagree with him, I only want good things to happen to the Senate Majority Leader. Senator Reid has 15 grandchildren, and I think it would be a great blessing if he could spend as much time with them as possible after he leaves office on January 3, 2011. Enjoy your grandchildren, Mr. Reid.

Loxodonta on August 31, 2009 at 12:23 PM

Comment pages: 1 2