Harry Reid in deep trouble: Mason-Dixon

posted at 11:36 am on August 24, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Until recently, few Republicans had wanted to challenge Harry Reid for his Senate seat in Nevada, as Reid had built a huge warchest and had expected to use it to coast to victory.  New polling, however, shows that Reid is quite vulnerable even with his campaign coffers stuffed to the brim.  Danny Tarkanian, a relative newcomer to Nevada politics, has an eleven-point lead on Reid in the latest Mason-Dixon polling in Nevada, and the state GOP chairwoman also leads Reid:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trailing a top Republican challenger by 11 points ahead of next year’s election, according to a new poll.

The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey, reported Sunday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, showed GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian leading Reid by 49 percent to 38 percent in Nevada.

Tarkanian is a former basketball player for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and recently announced his candidacy.

The new poll also showed Sue Lowden, chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and a possible candidate, leading Reid by 45 percent to 40 percent.

The shock may come from an incumbent unable to get even 40% of the vote in a state he’s represented for 22 years.  Incumbents whose numbers drop below 50% are usually considered vulnerable but not sure bets to lose office.  When it drops to 38%, that usually means career counseling and imminent retirement.

Under any other circumstances, that’s what Reid would do, but he can’t afford to retire now.  He would be the second Democratic Senate Majority Leader in a row to get thrown out of office by his own constituents (Tom Daschle got a compulsory retirement from South Dakotans), and he can’t allow that to happen by default with a retirement.  The embarrassment would permanently damage the Democratic agenda in the Senate and take what little luster remains of the Obama administration. The Democrats have to fight for Reid, which makes the stakes even higher for them — and the embarrassment even worse if he loses.

Will Reid try to save himself by retreating on ObamaCare and cap-and-trade?  Normally I’d guess yes, but I’m not sure that Reid will get the luxury of listening to his constituents.  If he wants a big Democratic Party rescue, he’ll need the national interests pushing for both big agenda items, especially the unions and the hard-Left organizers.  Without them, he’s sunk, big warchest or not.  Also, he’s probably boxed into the Obama agenda thanks to his actions this year and the yoke he shares with Nancy Pelosi and Obama.  It’s probably too late to salvage independents in Nevada already.

What happens if Reid loses?  Dick Durbin (D-IL) would almost certainly take the helm from Reid, which may not be a good outcome for either Republicans or Democrats.  Nevadans apparently believe that they can get addition through subtraction, however, and Reid looks likely to exit after 2010, barring some electoral miracle in his state — a very expensive miracle that might soak up all of the money needed to fight other midterm battles.


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There is a hole in the desert Harry. I’d leave Nevada.

portlandon on August 24, 2009 at 11:38 AM

But he’s such a sweet likable fella.

Daggett on August 24, 2009 at 11:38 AM

The war election is lost.

itsnotaboutme on August 24, 2009 at 11:39 AM

The next President of the New School.

JiangxiDad on August 24, 2009 at 11:39 AM

BUH-BYE!!!

Mr. Grump on August 24, 2009 at 11:40 AM

and take what little luster remains of the Obama administration.

And I thought you couldn’t shine a turd.

More hope and change . . .

NoDonkey on August 24, 2009 at 11:40 AM

Maybe Obama will give Las Vegas another ‘endorsement’ and Dingy Harry will sink even lower. One can only hope.

DrW on August 24, 2009 at 11:40 AM

Appropriate that an a$$hole brings up the rear in polling.

Hope may well spring eternal if this holds.

tree hugging sister on August 24, 2009 at 11:40 AM

Let the purging begin……..

One leader down and two to go…..Pelosi and then the “phony in chief”.

Rovin on August 24, 2009 at 11:41 AM

Tom Daschle him, PLEASE!

Abby Adams on August 24, 2009 at 11:41 AM

Hey Harry, you’ve been Daschled.

Exposing what you clowns are up to was your first mistake.

fogw on August 24, 2009 at 11:41 AM

“that usually means career counseling and imminent retirement.”

Is that like a ‘death pannel’? – just sayin…

Jussi on August 24, 2009 at 11:41 AM

Democrat Senate Majority, where senators go do die (politically).

WashJeff on August 24, 2009 at 11:42 AM

reid is rotting garbage & a pimple on the ass of the republic (I’ll never forget him saying that the tourists in DC smell horrible) what a wretched piece of filthy scum – take his sorry ass OUT

Ris4victory on August 24, 2009 at 11:42 AM

It’s about time. Reid has been nothing but a crook from the get go.

darwin on August 24, 2009 at 11:42 AM

I don’t understand how this dim bulb got elected in the first place ……

gstrickler on August 24, 2009 at 11:42 AM

Dick Durbin (D-IL) would almost certainly take the helm from Reid,

……..

I think it will be Schumer.

artist on August 24, 2009 at 11:43 AM

There is a hole in the desert Harry. I’d leave Nevada.

portlandon on August 24, 2009 at 11:38 AM

A scene from the movie “Casino” comes to mind . . .

Although Harry has been clinically dead for over a decade, it’s just that his corpse is too corrupt to realize it.

NoDonkey on August 24, 2009 at 11:43 AM

Never fear, true-believers. The Vegas mob will shoe-horn Reid back into the Senate.

Vic on August 24, 2009 at 11:43 AM

Unemployment in Las Vegas has passed 13%. Not too many union voters left to support Reid.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 11:43 AM

You know the anger is wide and deep, when it reaches *MA*:

GOVERNOR – MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen)

Christy Mihos (R) 40%
Deval Patrick (D-inc) 35%

artist on August 24, 2009 at 11:44 AM

His next employment,HONEST HARRY’S used cars.

easyone on August 24, 2009 at 11:44 AM

Buh-bye azzhole, I hope the door hits yer azz on the way out you sad, pathetic, sorry excuse of a man!

Liberty or Death on August 24, 2009 at 11:45 AM

Not to worry.

Overtime pay has now been approved for all ACORN workers.

Knucklehead on August 24, 2009 at 11:45 AM

Oh, I sure hope he goes down. I would settle for a graceful retirement, bowing out of the election campaign he is in danger of losing.

On the other hand, for all the distaste I have for Reid, it’s Pelosi who is the real problem — leaving aside the President, as we’re stuck with him for another 3 1/2 years. And Pelosi’s seat is safe, and although the Dems may lose big next year, it would take a miracle to turn over enough seats to change control of the House. Possible, but unlikely, though I would dearly love to see it!

jwolf on August 24, 2009 at 11:45 AM

What happens if Reid loses? Dick Durbin (D-IL) would almost certainly take the helm from Reid, which may not be a good outcome for either Republicans or Democrats.

Yet another Illinois street thug elevated to a position of power.

highhopes on August 24, 2009 at 11:45 AM

Reid can go back to shady land deals. The Yucca mountains are already partially developed.

ICBM on August 24, 2009 at 11:45 AM

What happens if Reid loses? Dick Durbin (D-IL) would almost certainly take the helm from Reid, which may not be a good outcome for either Republicans or Democrats.

Two Chicago pols in charge of the White House and Senate, plus Nancy P. from the Bay running the House for 2011-12 if the Democrats hold on to Congress? Odds are that’s not going to boost the Democrats’ favorable/unfavorable numbers much.

jon1979 on August 24, 2009 at 11:45 AM

Never fear, true-believers. The Vegas mob will shoe-horn Reid back into the Senate.

Vic on August 24, 2009 at 11:43 AM

Don’t know about that.

The Vegas mob is not happy about the fact that tourism has plummetted so dramatically. Cuts into their revenue big time.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 11:46 AM

I’m here to tell you the doom and gloom for Harry Red is real. Folks are sick and tired of him.

VegasRick on August 24, 2009 at 11:47 AM

Only problem is Dick Durbin of Illinois is a clueless tool as well. Whole Democrat party is full of them, so I guess we have to take them down one at a time. Reid is an excellent place to start. Maybe he can get a job mopping toilets in a third-rate casino in Vegas afterwards. I like the visual.

bradley11 on August 24, 2009 at 11:47 AM

Yet another Illinois street thug elevated to a position of power.

highhopes on August 24, 2009 at 11:45 AM

I can just taste the pork that will start coming our [state of IL] way in 2011. Get the Olympics in a couple months and it will be Porkapoolza!!

WashJeff on August 24, 2009 at 11:47 AM

And Pelosi’s seat is safe, and although the Dems may lose big next year, it would take a miracle to turn over enough seats to change control of the House. Possible, but unlikely, though I would dearly love to see it!

jwolf on August 24, 2009 at 11:45 AM

If Democratic losses are big enough, there’s no guarentee that the Democratic caucus will vote to keep her on as Speaker.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 11:48 AM

So much for the permanant majority for the donkeys…

But never underestimate the stupidity of the voters… Remember Murtha – Calls his constituents redneck racist bums and gets re elected. Keep hammering.

Kuffar on August 24, 2009 at 11:48 AM

Nevada voters = electoral death panel

bestwins on August 24, 2009 at 11:48 AM

When you factor in ACORN, he’s only behind by 1 point.

Christian Conservative on August 24, 2009 at 11:49 AM

Time for the voters to tell Harry that he has crapped out.

ICBM on August 24, 2009 at 11:50 AM

When you factor in ACORN, he’s only behind by 1 point.

Christian Conservative on August 24, 2009 at 11:49 AM

Acorn is under indictment here they have to be careful. Red is toast.

VegasRick on August 24, 2009 at 11:51 AM

The Vegas mob is not happy about the fact that tourism has plummetted so dramatically. Cuts into their revenue big time.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 11:46 AM

Because gambling away our nation’s future has taken away the ability to gamble at the crap table.

Besides, with backwaters such as Jerkwater West Virgnia building casinos, who needs to go to Vegas to get fleeced?

NoDonkey on August 24, 2009 at 11:51 AM

Down with Harry Reid! Throw him out, Nevadans!

CP on August 24, 2009 at 11:51 AM

There is a hole in the desert Harry. I’d leave Nevada.

portlandon on August 24, 2009 at 11:38 AM

I guess that was a shovel ready project?

izoneguy on August 24, 2009 at 11:52 AM

As I wrote yesterday, people are forgetting the scandal factor. Look what’s happened to Brian Krolicki. Harry Reid might be the epitome of milquetoast in the Senate, but he has a strong hand in Nevada politics. And that means a strong hand in the state’s legal system. Nevada’s governor might be a Republican, but their Attorney General is a Dem… remember that.

Siobhan on August 24, 2009 at 11:52 AM

The Vegas mob is not happy about the fact that tourism has plummetted so dramatically. Cuts into their revenue big time.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 11:46 AM

Beat me to it. Plus Vegas unemployment is pushing 20 percent.

John the Libertarian on August 24, 2009 at 11:52 AM

Apparently Nevada thinks Harry is the real stinch in DC. I’m lovin’ it.

txag92 on August 24, 2009 at 11:55 AM

artist on August 24, 2009 at 11:43 AM

Nah, it will almost certainly be Durbin, as he’s the Majority Whip right now. The only way it isn’t is if they decide they need someone less partisan.

Siobhan on August 24, 2009 at 11:55 AM

I’d love to see Son Of Tark kick Reid out of the Senate.

Maybe he can do a fundraiser by selling the towels his father would slobber on as a coach at UNLV and Fresno State.

teke184 on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

When it drops to 38%, that usually means career counseling and imminent retirement.

maybe someone from the va will share one of those little books with old dingy, what’s it called ……your worthless now go die……sumthin like dat.

SHARPTOOTH on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

Reid keeps pushing the Won’s agenda IMO because he’s knows he will lose in 2010 but I bet Rahm has promised him a prominent position with the administration.

HoustonRight on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

Dick Durbin (D-IL) would almost certainly take the helm from Reid,
……..
I think it will be Schumer.

artist on August 24, 2009 at 11:43 AM
—–
I just want to remind everyone who thinks Durbin is a shoe-in… Dick “Eddie Haskal” Durbin barely won re-election over woefully underfunded Jim Durkin a cycle or two ago. Durbin is *not* popular outside Chicago, and has made enough foolish statements that the campaign ads (for a candidate with decent funding) just about write themselves.

I’m from Illinois, I’m a realist, and I can tell you, Durbin is vulnerable – although likely the candidate will be somewhat “squishy” by Southern standards.

Mew

acat on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

I cannot wait till the mid-term elections!!

becki51758 on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

yucca, nuff said.

rob verdi on August 24, 2009 at 11:58 AM

There is a lot of time for Soros to fund his rescue.

EconomicNeocon on August 24, 2009 at 12:00 PM

I am hoping for the trifecta quadruple…

Reid, Boxer, Dodd, Specter.

SouthernGent on August 24, 2009 at 12:00 PM

No problem, Harry has nine lives or more accurately, nine living deads.

NoDonkey on August 24, 2009 at 12:01 PM

SouthernGent on August 24, 2009 at 12:00 PM

The ultimate grand slam. Touch ‘em all.

HoustonRight on August 24, 2009 at 12:01 PM

50% of the stimulus money will be dumped into NV. They’ll be building 4 or 5 dams by next Feb.

Caper29 on August 24, 2009 at 12:01 PM

It will be interesting as to how many dead people and illegals end up voting.

Also, Harry probably needs plenty of “thug thizzle” at the polling places.

wildcat84 on August 24, 2009 at 12:02 PM

Will the senate want that much “illinois” control between Obambi and Sen. Turban?

usedtobeinmich on August 24, 2009 at 12:02 PM

Siobhan on August 24, 2009 at 11:52 AM

That’s an extremely good point.

Almost every election where the vote is extremely close and requires a recount goes to the party whose holding the Attorney General position.

JadeNYU on August 24, 2009 at 12:04 PM

I love the smell of the burning Democratic majority in the morning!

NathanG on August 24, 2009 at 12:05 PM

Drop Reid in the middle of the desert for the buzzards but please don’t elect anyone named Tarkanian to replace him.

Percy_Peabody on August 24, 2009 at 12:06 PM

That would be humilitiating for Daschle and Reid to both go down to defeat. God, I cannot wait til next November.

Doughboy on August 24, 2009 at 12:07 PM

Don’t get over confident . . . Harry is like a fungus, you can scape it off but it just keeps coming back.

rplat on August 24, 2009 at 12:07 PM

can we offer dirty harry a free copy of the death-book pamphlet to fill out? maybe his life as a “veggie” is not worth it anymore…..

Ris4victory on August 24, 2009 at 12:08 PM

Reid will now face the Career Death Panel, aka voters.

marklmail on August 24, 2009 at 12:12 PM

In Obama’s case we wanted to see the birth certificate, in Harry’s case we should demand to see his death certificate.

Because he looks like he died about a decade ago.

It’s it a Constitutional Requirement that a Senator be actually alive, to serve in the Senate?

NoDonkey on August 24, 2009 at 12:12 PM

It’s it a Constitutional Requirement that a Senator be actually alive, to serve in the Senate?
NoDonkey on August 24, 2009 at 12:12 PM

Nope, Robert Byrd actually passed away three years ago but no one wants to say anything.

Bishop on August 24, 2009 at 12:15 PM

Nope, Robert Byrd actually passed away three years ago but no one wants to say anything.

Bishop on August 24, 2009 at 12:15 PM

:O)

Seven Percent Solution on August 24, 2009 at 12:16 PM

rplat on August 24, 2009 at 12:07 PM
—-
Scraping is the wrong approach. You need to clean up the whole fungus. If the fungus is on a solid, non-organic material, fire is a good way to kill it dead. Otherwise, there are various chemicals – chlorine, salt, etc.

Mew

acat on August 24, 2009 at 12:17 PM

Nope, Robert Byrd actually passed away three years ago but no one wants to say anything.

Bishop on August 24, 2009 at 12:15 PM

So will he be running to succeed Jefferson Davis next year?

The South of the Mason Dixon Line poll has him running strongly ahead of the other Klansmen.

NoDonkey on August 24, 2009 at 12:17 PM

acat on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

Durbin won by 20 points in that election. It’ll take someone like Roskam to beat Durbin, and that would have to be in a good GOP year.

I second the notion that Schumer will be the new Senate Majority Leader. He was head of the DSCC and probably has votes locked up from that, plus all of the senators near NY.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on August 24, 2009 at 12:18 PM

Good, now somebody challenge San Fran’s Botox Baroness and let’s see the Speaker and the Leader both get tossed out by their constituents.
Granted San Fran Nan’s a tougher nut to crack, but I WANT TO BELIEVE!

Iblis on August 24, 2009 at 12:19 PM

can we offer dirty harry a free copy of the death-book pamphlet to fill out? maybe his life as a “veggie” is not worth it anymore…..

Ris4victory on August 24, 2009 at 12:08 PM

The Washington Examiner is reporting that the death-book has been pulled from the VA website. I guess we’ll have to rely on the fact that he’s out of power to convince him that life isn’t worth it.

highhopes on August 24, 2009 at 12:20 PM

Obama could care less what it will cost Harry to push through his health care agenda. Obama might well tell Reid “Some have to die (politically) so that others may live (Obama).

True leadership is all about sacrifice of others in Obama’s world.

GarandFan on August 24, 2009 at 12:21 PM

Harry, why don’t you check the fit under that bus right now and avoid the rush later?

GarandFan on August 24, 2009 at 12:22 PM

Granted San Fran Nan’s a tougher nut to crack, but I WANT TO BELIEVE!

Iblis on August 24, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Virtually impossible for a Republican but I’d bet you that her seat and many of the “safe ones” are more vulnerable to challengers this year than in past elections. I’d be perfectly happy to see Pelosi, Murtha, Frank, Waxman, et al. replaced with equally rabid liberals. It wouldn’t change anything other than to have these criminals forced out of power and that would be enough.

highhopes on August 24, 2009 at 12:23 PM

True leadership is all about sacrifice of others in Obama’s world.

GarandFan on August 24, 2009 at 12:21 PM

Being a narcissist means never having to worry about empathy for others. Reid should be happy to fall on the grenade for the filthy liar in the White House.

highhopes on August 24, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Nah, Nah, Nah, Nah – Nah, Nah, Nah, Nah – Hey,Heeeey, Goodbye!

http://www.teapartynation.com

tnmama on August 24, 2009 at 12:25 PM

Who would take his Senate Leadership position? Old Style Democrat or another Progressive?

Dr Evil on August 24, 2009 at 12:26 PM

Well, when the casinos are down 30-40% – looks like they are picking a new horse for the race.

While a bit OT – good indicator of how companies are reacting to this horrid economy and inept administration and ruling party.

Odie1941 on August 24, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Who would take his Senate Leadership position? Old Style Democrat or another Progressive?

Dr Evil on August 24, 2009 at 12:26 PM

If they had any sense, they would put a moderate in there (Bill Nelson of Florida maybe). But we are talking about the Dems. Probably another Progessive.

NathanG on August 24, 2009 at 12:27 PM

I’d be perfectly happy to see Pelosi, Murtha, Frank, Waxman, et al. replaced with equally rabid liberals. It wouldn’t change anything other than to have these criminals forced out of power and that would be enough.

My thoughts exactly, as said in the Conyers thread.

Getting these particular idiots replaced by newer idiots on the left means that these particular people will be out of power and their replacements will have to start building seniority before screwing things up as part of the leadership.

teke184 on August 24, 2009 at 12:27 PM

Dick Durbin (D-IL) would almost certainly take the helm from Reid …

EM

I think it will be Schumer.

artist on August 24, 2009 at 11:43 AM

I just want to remind everyone who thinks Durbin is a shoe-in… Dick “Eddie Haskal” Durbin barely won re-election over woefully underfunded Jim Durkin a cycle or two ago. Durbin is *not* popular outside Chicago, and has made enough foolish statements that the campaign ads (for a candidate with decent funding) just about write themselves.

I’m from Illinois, I’m a realist, and I can tell you, Durbin is vulnerable – although likely the candidate will be somewhat “squishy” by Southern standards.

acat on August 24, 2009 at 11:56 AM

As much as I admire your attitude, I disagree with your projections. Durbin beat Durkin 60 – 38% and beat conservative Steve Sauerberg 66 – 34% in 2008. He has millions of dollars and a liberal consituency aided by a criminal blue-collar/union monopoly on all construction and City of Chicago services.

He’s an ugly, fat, pink little white liberal who has flourished out of the spotlight of politics, doing his scummy work in backrooms. He is also not a Chicago politician, despite the profile — he’s a central Illinois product who garners support outside of Chicago, somehow.

And I have no doubt that he would end up Senate Dem leader. We should hope to make him the minority leader. He’s very shrewd. But there is exactly zero chance that he will be defeated in the Illinois I live in.

Jaibones on August 24, 2009 at 12:32 PM

I meant to link the 2008 Durbin – Sauerberg mismatch, also.

Jaibones on August 24, 2009 at 12:34 PM

What about the ACORN vote? Does this take into account the ACORN VOTE?

bloggless on August 24, 2009 at 12:40 PM

The more you tighten your grip, Obama, the more senate seats will slip through your fingers.

29Victor on August 24, 2009 at 12:41 PM

Oh be still my heart!

fbcmusicman on August 24, 2009 at 12:42 PM

Iblis on August 24, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Pelosi has a very well-funded PAC that has donated to quite a few other politicians. She stays in power because she bought up a lot of favors.

At one point, she had two PACs that were maxing out donations to the same candidates. The FEC caught on and fined her second PAC for the double contributions. The PAC was disbanded before the fine was ever collected.

You can defeat wealth and you can defeat sneaky….but, when those two things are combined, they’re hard to defeat. You mostly have to wait for someone to screw up royally before you can take a person like Pelosi down.

JadeNYU on August 24, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Harry Reid in deep trouble doo-doo

When you get things all wee-wee’d up, you are sure to end up in deep doo doo.

UltimateBob on August 24, 2009 at 12:47 PM

Let him be punished with living out the rest of his days with the millions in ill gotten gains of his office and, a huge pension and benefits for ripping off the US taxpayer and paid for by the same. Seems fair.

Hening on August 24, 2009 at 12:47 PM

He is also not a Chicago politician, despite the profile — he’s a central Illinois product who garners support outside of Chicago, somehow.

And I have no doubt that he would end up Senate Dem leader. We should hope to make him the minority leader. He’s very shrewd. But there is exactly zero chance that he will be defeated in the Illinois I live in.

Jaibones on August 24, 2009 at 12:32 PM

The rat bastard traitor may be from Springfield but isn’t it fair to say the only reason he’s in the Senate is because he got the support of the same group of Chicago thugs that elevated the filthy liar to the White House?

highhopes on August 24, 2009 at 12:50 PM

Remember Murtha – Calls his constituents redneck racist bums and gets re elected. Keep hammering.

Kuffar on August 24, 2009 at 11:48 AM

For way too many people, the only thing they care about is how much govt money can I get my hands on.
Even people who would call themselves conservative in almost any other setting.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 12:51 PM

You mostly have to wait for someone to screw up royally before you can take a person like Pelosi down.

JadeNYU on August 24, 2009 at 12:43 PM

And invariably they always do.

highhopes on August 24, 2009 at 12:51 PM

I bet Harry Reid is getting wee-weed up!

ladyingray on August 24, 2009 at 12:52 PM

Beat me to it. Plus Vegas unemployment is pushing 20 percent.

John the Libertarian on August 24, 2009 at 11:52 AM

I saw an article last Thursday or Friday that had 13.6%. Could that be the difference between U3 and U6?

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 12:53 PM

*sniff sniff

I smell bus loads of ACORNs going out to Las Vegas for some good ole community gambling…

Upstater85 on August 24, 2009 at 12:54 PM

It certainly would be lovely to see Senator Palpatine kicked to the curb.

Blacklake on August 24, 2009 at 12:54 PM

My wife has a bunch of friends and relatives who still live in Vegas. Most of them would move if they could, but they can’t sell their houses.

MarkTheGreat on August 24, 2009 at 12:54 PM

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