Poll: Obama 47, Huckabee 44

posted at 3:35 pm on August 20, 2009 by Allahpundit

That’s within the margin of error, kids, the first time Huck’s been that close despite consistently leading the GOP field in PPP’s polling on hypothetical match-ups with The One. They’ve posted extensive crosstabs for him, Mitt, Gingrich, and Palin; among the most striking numbers is Huck scoring a 61 percent favorability rating among conservatives versus just 49 percent for Romney. Mitt’s never going to shake the RINO label, is he?

He’s not the big loser in this poll, though.

Huckabee is not the most popular candidate among GOP voters though. While 66% of them have a favorable opinion of him, 72% have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin.

Palin’s overall numbers have seen a pretty steep decline in the last month though. Two July surveys we conducted actually showed her numbers slightly improving from pre-resignation announcement levels, to a 47/45 spread. That’s now dropped to 40/49. Among Democrats she’s gone from 25% with a favorable opinion of her to 15%, and among independents she’s gone from 45% to 37%.

In her head to head contest with Obama, Palin is down 52-38 after her 51-43 deficit a month ago had been the closest we have measured for her to date.

Until this, the trendline in her favorables was upward. I don’t know how to explain PPP finding that she’s nosedived since late July, unless all the media screeching about her “death panels” comment is resonating with the public — which would be strange, given that public support for ObamaCare has been sinking steadily ever since she said it.

A revealing piece of data:

Huckabee rates positively with every educational group; Mitt is narrowly in the negative among college grads but otherwise positive for every group from high school grads on up. Palin’s numbers, by contrast, track steadily downward starting with high-school grads, where she has overwhelming support, up through grad-school grads, where she’s overwhelmingly opposed. I don’t know how to explain that, unless the media image of her as a know-nothing has stuck and this is a snapshot of how different groups react to it. And if it is, I don’t know how she begins to undo it. Exit question: Does mounting conservative disgust with Obama make Huckabee more viable as a nominee? Every time I post on him, the Huck-haters in the comments vow that they’ll stay home, won’t donate to the campaign, etc etc etc, but after three more years of Hopenchange I’m thinking you’ll be at the point where we could nominate Meghan McCain and you’d all be out knocking on doors. Second look at Huck?


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I think Obama will be re-elected. It will be close, but I think he will. We need to focus on trampling Pelosi, Reid, and Crew in Congress. We could do just as much damage to the socialistic agenda with majorities in both houses by having a majority that will block Obama’s agenda.

NathanG on August 20, 2009 at 10:26 PM

I think Obama will be re-elected.

NathanG on August 20, 2009 at 10:26 PM

especially if,

We need a third party with a small platform.

Dissolve the IRS, flat tax, state’s rights.

joshlbetts on August 20, 2009 at 10:18 PM

bestwins on August 20, 2009 at 10:31 PM

(by the way, from what I see, am I right to say this site attracts more libertarians than other types of “conservatives”?)

ChristianRock on August 20, 2009 at 4:37 PM

I think so. Thats why I like it here and stopped going to Free Republic.

Speedwagon82 on August 20, 2009 at 10:32 PM

(by the way, from what I see, am I right to say this site attracts more libertarians than other types of “conservatives”?)

ChristianRock on August 20, 2009 at 4:37 PM
I think so. Thats why I like it here and stopped going to Free Republic.

Speedwagon82 on August 20, 2009 at 10:32 PM

I agree. This site has common-sense libertarians rather than loony wannabes like other sites (Spathi comes to mind). None on here are radical libertarians. They understand we are at war with radical Islam and don’t act like they’re losing it because of it.

NathanG on August 20, 2009 at 10:42 PM

I see BO and Huckleberry are in a statistical dead heat after only seven months of divine guidance. Two ways to look at this:
1. Huck needs to double up on the personal protection.
2. It’s another red herring by the MSM to get us to fall in love with Huck the RINO (IMHO the King of the RINOs).
I say it’s 2, and no thanks.

bayouboy on August 20, 2009 at 11:25 PM

That is false.

You have a paucity of facts which ill informs your poorly thought out opinion.

That’s why I dismiss you.

atheling on August 20, 2009 at 10:14 PM

You and Archimedes consistently call people who disagree with you trolls-your posts say it all, and using ‘paucity’ doesn’t change that fact-if you put forth the same effort into explaining what you thought as opposed to trying to label people who don’t agree with you as trolls-you might have a shred of credibility.

sDs61678 on August 20, 2009 at 11:27 PM

Coltsfan,

What a great name you have..I’m from Indiana. Go Colts!!!

I want to clarily some misinformation you have about Mike Huckabee. When Mike Huckabee was Governor of Arkansas for 10 1/2 years, he NEVER used his religion against the people of Arkansas. He tries to live it for himself. This was his record as Governor in politics, people. This was how he governed, and how he would govern as our next President. I have heard him many times say that he accepts all other religions, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is a Christian and not ashamed of it.

During the primaries of 2008, Mike Huckabee made some statements about religion that were misunderstood. I knew what he meant, but I could also see why some people could take the statements the wrong way. He needed to have explain himself more clearly. Don’t you all know that Mike Huckabee was the only candidate who was consistently asked religious questions at all the debates? He even made comments during some of the last debates about the fact that he was always asked these questions, not about his record in Arkansas. He wanted to talk about his record and clarify all the misleading information from false ads and Club for Growth put out to be sure he didn’t get the nomination. Yes, he put out ads calling himself a Christian leader in Iowa, but that was because of the huge base of Christians in Iowa he was talking to. It wasn’t a lie, but he’s so much more than that. BTW, I saw some information about the final results in Iowa, and Mike Huckabee also got lots of the Republican voters as well as the Christians. After Mitt Romney lost to Mike Huckabee in Iowa, he tried to paint Huckabee as a candidate who could only get the Christian vote. Obviously, from some of your comments, he was pretty successful. But even with all the millions of dollars Mitt Romney spent against Mike Huckabee, the voters saw the truth that Mike Huckabee was the most genuine, sincere and honest politician and they liked him. People voted for Huckabee with 10-13% of the vote in all the states that came after he dropped out of the primary. Nobody remembers that, right? Check out the figures and you will see. Mike Huckabee appeals to many Independents and Blue Dog Democrats as well as the Conservative Republicans. The polls have showed this to be true.

This is the 5th straight PPP poll where Mike Huckabee is the closest Republican to beat Obama in 2012.

Yes, his show on Fox has helped him, because now the Elite Republican establishment that didn’t support him in 2008 will not be able to paint him as a candidate who can ONLY get the Christian vote. People are seeing Mike Huckabee for the person he really is. BTW for the person who said Palin is the only person putting down Obama, try watching “Huckabee” at 8:00 p.m. EST on Sat or Sunday, and you will hear Mike Huckabee putting the healthcare plan down every week.

Also, Mike Huckabee is now in Israel and backing them to be able to build what they want in their own country…not like Obama who has DEMANDED they stop construction so he can placate the Palestians. That took courage, conviction and standing up for the principles he has always had for our good ally, Israel. Huckabee uses the example of another country coming in to the U.S.and telling us where we can build. That would never happen, so why should we tell Israel where they can build in their own country.

In 2012, we will need moe of the African American vote, and Mike Huckabee got 48% of the African American voters when he ran for his 2nd term as Gov. in Arkansas.

Take a 2nd look at Mike Huckabee for 2012. You won’t be sorry. Check out his record on issues at hucksarmy.com/forum/Mike Huckabee on the Issues, and you will read the real story about his record in Arkansas, not just what the Club for Growth was paid to say.

VFT on August 21, 2009 at 12:32 AM

Colts Fan,

Mike Huckabee does NOT hate Mormons. He dislikes Mtt Romney because he cannot make up his mind about anything and says what he needs to only to get the votes. Not trustworthy!!! Mike Huckabee asked a question of a reporter after he grilled him about Mormons for a very long time. What he asked about was a true statement and I have talked to Mormons on othe sites who said it was true, but Huckabee shouldn’t have said it.

Mike Huckabee went on his own show and another talk show and apologized to any Mormons who were offended by his comment. He has no problem with people being Mormons, but he saw first hand how deceitful and devious Mitt Romney was during the 2008 elections and how he tried to “buy” the Presidency. Mike Huckabee was one of a very few candidates who ended his primary campaign in the black. Now we all know he needed to place many more ads, but he was determined not to go in debt.

Colts Fan if you don’t think it’s important for our President to have good morals as President and condemn killing innocent babies (which is against the Commandments), you are crazy. Do you leave your morals at the door to the Oval Office? I don’t think so!!! Why so many Christians (at least that’s what they say they are) voted for Obama knowing he was going to be responsible for thousands of more babies to die and helping to get the legislation to help the homosexuals have the marriage right, is unbelievable. We who profess to be Christians are supposed to live our lives everyday the way God would want us to, not cherry pick the Bible and say it doesn’t mean today’s people. It has worked for us 2,000 years. Do you really believe God would want the Christian voters to forget His commandments when it comes time for voting for a leader? No way! The Bill of Rights for this country was written by mostly Christian people with Christian values. When we took prayer out of schools, out of graduation ceremonies to give God thanks, look what has happened to our children in schools. They cannot be taught about God, but they are taught about Islam and other religions. They are taught in kindergarten and 1st grade in CA that homosexuality is normal. The Dems in this Healthcare bill want parents to have counseling. They know that if they want to have their agenda accepted, they must control what the children are taught. Look at what kids are doing now, but their lack of God in anything, they come into schools and kill people. This didn’t happen when they said a prayer every day. The Dems want to take control of what the students learn and control away from parents. That’s more issues our infamous “Christians” voted for when they voted for Obama.

Do you see why Christian principles are important in our President? Mike Huckabee NEVER forced his religion on the people of Arkansas and wouldn’t do that in the office of President!

VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

I do not consider Palin to be in a death spiral. She captured the press nomination for ‘Death Panel’ and that was a vote of confidence in her power. The phrase stuck with her, and that was a vote from the public they associated her with standing against Death Panels. That is a strong plus, stronger than a poll from PPP

Palin captures the public attention despite the fact she has never controlled her own image outside of Alaska, and she has never run her own national ad campaign

Huck has found a winning formula to improve his image. He was doing a lot of pundit panel commentary on FOX, which diminished his voice.

Lately he has been running very credible Oprah style audience participation programming on FOX. I caught a few segments and he was very good.

He didn’t fight with the audience and came across as warm and intelligent. He does an editorial at the end which is positive, uplifting and quite conservative.

A friend commented he disliked Huck as a politician but believed Huck has found his calling in the talk show format.

A lot of pols flub this format, which is like a Townhall. Huck has the advantage of tunning the show but it does not matter. He comes across great compared to the arrogant pols running Townhalls concurrent to Huck’s performances

entagor on August 21, 2009 at 1:51 AM

After the ususal “first in nation” states; Alaska, North & South Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming and Idaho will vote. All will be easy wins by Palin.

Norwegian on August 20, 2009 at 6:31 PM

Yep. She will win all the states from North Dakota down to Texas and everything west of those.

From there the rest will split and Palin will easily win the primary.

The issue is whether she runs, and if so, can she beat Obama?

Obama is REALLY REALLY struggling. Big government is stangling the country. By Nov. 2012, that 46% will be 52% and Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Ohio will come back to the GOP.

It may end up Colorado decides the next election.

No matter what happens, hispanic vote in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada could well turn the election.

Sapwolf on August 21, 2009 at 2:17 AM

Coltsfan,

What a great name you have..I’m from Indiana. Go Colts!!!
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 12:32 AM

Thank you. :-)

What part of Indiana are you from?

I want to clarily some misinformation you have about Mike Huckabee.
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 12:32 AM

Okay.

I am willing to listen.

When Mike Huckabee was Governor of Arkansas for 10 1/2 years, he NEVER used his religion against the people of Arkansas. He tries to live it for himself. This was his record as Governor in politics, people. This was how he governed, and how he would govern as our next President. I have heard him many times say that he accepts all other religions, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is a Christian and not ashamed of it.
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 12:32 AM

Okay.

I am a Christian. I am not ashamed of it either.

As a matter of fact, I have argued here at HA (or tried to argue) that believing in the core propositions of the historic Christian faith is a rational thing to do.

Unlike Huckabee, I understand the distinction between the God-ordained role of civil magistrate and the role of the spiritual leader.

The earlier posts indicate Huckabee confuses the distinction and blurs the 2 roles often.

Just my .02

I do think he
During the primaries of 2008, Mike Huckabee made some statements about religion that were misunderstood. I knew what he meant, but I could also see why some people could take the statements the wrong way. He needed to have explain himself more clearly. Don’t you all know that Mike Huckabee was the only candidate who was consistently asked religious questions at all the debates? He even made comments during some of the last debates about the fact that he was always asked these questions, not about his record in Arkansas. He wanted to talk about his record and clarify all the misleading information from false ads and Club for Growth put out to be sure he didn’t get the nomination. Yes, he put out ads calling himself a Christian leader in Iowa, but that was because of the huge base of Christians in Iowa he was talking to. It wasn’t a lie, but he’s so much more than that. BTW, I saw some information about the final results in Iowa, and Mike Huckabee also got lots of the Republican voters as well as the Christians. After Mitt Romney lost to Mike Huckabee in Iowa, he tried to paint Huckabee as a candidate who could only get the Christian vote. Obviously, from some of your comments, he was pretty successful. But even with all the millions of dollars Mitt Romney spent against Mike Huckabee, the voters saw the truth that Mike Huckabee was the most genuine, sincere and honest politician and they liked him. People voted for Huckabee with 10-13% of the vote in all the states that came after he dropped out of the primary. Nobody remembers that, right? Check out the figures and you will see. Mike Huckabee appeals to many Independents and Blue Dog Democrats as well as the Conservative Republicans. The polls have showed this to be true.
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 12:32 AM

My position is not that Huckabee isn’t popular with the conservative base. Nor is it that Huckabee is not popular with the Republican voters in general, or Blue Dogs voters or independents. I agree with you that Huck is popular.

My only position is that Huckabee consistently shows a lack of understanding about the “2 Kingdom View” concerning Church and civil government. And I find that very alarming considering Huckabee wants to be the next POTUS.

This is the 5th straight PPP poll where Mike Huckabee is the closest Republican to beat Obama in 2012.

Yes, his show on Fox has helped him, because now the Elite Republican establishment that didn’t support him in 2008 will not be able to paint him as a candidate who can ONLY get the Christian vote. People are seeing Mike Huckabee for the person he really is. BTW for the person who said Palin is the only person putting down Obama, try watching “Huckabee” at 8:00 p.m. EST on Sat or Sunday, and you will hear Mike Huckabee putting the healthcare plan down every week.

Also, Mike Huckabee is now in Israel and backing them to be able to build what they want in their own country…not like Obama who has DEMANDED they stop construction so he can placate the Palestians. That took courage, conviction and standing up for the principles he has always had for our good ally, Israel. Huckabee uses the example of another country coming in to the U.S.and telling us where we can build. That would never happen, so why should we tell Israel where they can build in their own country.

In 2012, we will need moe of the African American vote, and Mike Huckabee got 48% of the African American voters when he ran for his 2nd term as Gov. in Arkansas.

Take a 2nd look at Mike Huckabee for 2012. You won’t be sorry. Check out his record on issues at hucksarmy.com/forum/Mike Huckabee on the Issues, and you will read the real story about his record in Arkansas, not just what the Club for Growth was paid to say.

VFT on August 21, 2009 at 12:32 AM

Again, my position is not that Huck is unpopular with the base or with independents. Nor is my position that Huck is silent on Obama’s health care fiasco.

My only position regarding Huck is that he consistently fails to understand that civil government and the church are in two different realms.

I don’t hate the guy.

I just think he is mistaken.

ColtsFan on August 21, 2009 at 3:15 AM

Colts Fan,

Mike Huckabee does NOT hate Mormons. He dislikes Mtt Romney because he cannot make up his mind about anything and says what he needs to only to get the votes. Not trustworthy!!! Mike Huckabee asked a question of a reporter after he grilled him about Mormons for a very long time. What he asked about was a true statement and I have talked to Mormons on othe sites who said it was true, but Huckabee shouldn’t have said it.

Mike Huckabee went on his own show and another talk show and apologized to any Mormons who were offended by his comment. He has no problem with people being Mormons, but he saw first hand how deceitful and devious Mitt Romney was during the 2008 elections and how he tried to “buy” the Presidency.
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

I know Mormon theology quite well myself.

And I also know that a Christian who knows his Bible and who is campaigning to represent AMERICANS (including Mormons) would not issue a smear against Mormons.

Yes, I know he apologized.

Mike Huckabee was one of a very few candidates who ended his primary campaign in the black. Now we all know he needed to place many more ads, but he was determined not to go in debt.
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

That is fine and dandy, but irrelevant to my earlier point.

Huck confuses the God-ordained role of civil magistrate serving in a civil capacity with the role of a spiritual leader in a church. And I find that alarming.

Colts Fan if you don’t think it’s important for our President to have good morals as President and condemn killing innocent babies (which is against the Commandments), you are crazy. Do you leave your morals at the door to the Oval Office?
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

It is not a good idea to misrepresent my position here.

Straw man fallacies of the kind demonstrated by you above do not add any credibility to your overall argument. It actually weakens it.

I don’t think so!!! Why so many Christians (at least that’s what they say they are) voted for Obama knowing he was going to be responsible for thousands of more babies to die and helping to get the legislation to help the homosexuals have the marriage right, is unbelievable. We who profess to be Christians are supposed to live our lives everyday the way God would want us to, not cherry pick the Bible and say it doesn’t mean today’s people.
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

Look, dude.

I didn’t vote for Obama, okay.

And the reason why so many Christians maybe voted for Obama probably has a lot to do with why so many Christians go into politics and end up doing exactly what Huck is doing:

confusing and conflating the God-ordained role of civil magistrate in a civil society (“Kingdom of Man” — see Romans 13) with the role and function of a spiritual leader (“Kingdom of God’). The roles and functions are different.

It has worked for us 2,000 years. Do you really believe God would want the Christian voters to forget His commandments when it comes time for voting for a leader? No way! The Bill of Rights for this country was written by mostly Christian people with Christian values. When we took prayer out of schools, out of graduation ceremonies to give God thanks, look what has happened to our children in schools. They cannot be taught about God, but they are taught about Islam and other religions. They are taught in kindergarten and 1st grade in CA that homosexuality is normal. The Dems in this Healthcare bill want parents to have counseling. They know that if they want to have their agenda accepted, they must control what the children are taught. Look at what kids are doing now, but their lack of God in anything, they come into schools and kill people. This didn’t happen when they said a prayer every day. The Dems want to take control of what the students learn and control away from parents. That’s more issues our infamous “Christians” voted for when they voted for Obama.

Do you see why Christian principles are important in our President? Mike Huckabee NEVER forced his religion on the people of Arkansas and wouldn’t do that in the office of President!

VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

Your points, again, are logically irrelevant to the issue at hand:

does Huck even have a basic understanding of the “2 Kingdom view?”

Why does he conflate the role of the civil magistrate with the role of a spiritual leader?

ColtsFan on August 21, 2009 at 3:28 AM

Colts Fan if you don’t think it’s important for our President to have good morals as President and condemn killing innocent babies (which is against the Commandments), you are crazy. Do you leave your morals at the door to the Oval Office?
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

It is not a good idea to misrepresent my position here.

Straw man fallacies of the kind demonstrated by you above do not add any credibility to your overall argument. It actually weakens it.

ColtsFan on August 21, 2009 at 3:29 AM

I don’t think so!!! Why so many Christians (at least that’s what they say they are) voted for Obama knowing he was going to be responsible for thousands of more babies to die and helping to get the legislation to help the homosexuals have the marriage right, is unbelievable. We who profess to be Christians are supposed to live our lives everyday the way God would want us to, not cherry pick the Bible and say it doesn’t mean today’s people.
VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

Look, dude.

I didn’t vote for Obama, okay.

And the reason why so many Christians maybe voted for Obama probably has a lot to do with so much crazy theology going around and why so many Christians go into politics and end up doing exactly what Huck is doing:

confusing and conflating the God-ordained role of civil magistrate in a civil society (”Kingdom of Man” — see Romans 13) with the role and function of a spiritual leader (”Kingdom of God’). The roles and functions are different.

ColtsFan on August 21, 2009 at 3:31 AM

Colts Fan,

Mike Huckabee does NOT hate Mormons. He dislikes Mtt Romney because he cannot make up his mind about anything and says what he needs to only to get the votes. Not trustworthy!!!

VFT on August 21, 2009 at 1:11 AM

Huchabee lives in a glass house. He did a 180 on illegals. Not just a 90, but a 180.

MB4 on August 21, 2009 at 4:03 AM

What about Mike Pence for President? He’s smart, experienced, on the right committees, conservative, articulate, and can effectively argue without being framed by the media as scary. I like him.

sDs61678 on August 21, 2009 at 4:11 AM

Sounds like people are getting really desperate out there.

I’m sure Huckabee could come up with an even better government-based nationalized health care plan solution.

Oh, brother.

Dr. ZhivBlago on August 21, 2009 at 5:17 AM

A friend commented he disliked Huck as a politician but believed Huck has found his calling in the talk show format.

Huck’s show is well put together. Nothing like seeing a preacher/ex-governor/ex-Presidential candidate jam on the bass guitar while espousing a pretty conservative message.

There are some political positions about Huck I’m not a big fan of but if he comes out of the fold I’d be more willing to vote for him in ’12 than I would have been in ’08.

Dickie Dunn on August 21, 2009 at 6:54 AM

He’s BSing. He’s a concern troll.

atheling on August 20, 2009 at 8:46 PM

lol

Thanks for trying (and failing) to peg me!

I don’t put political party first…it’s great you do and great you’re passionate about Palin but I strongly believe she will lose in 2012…not because the base isn’t fanatic about her but because she is reviled by the middle, which the GOP needs to win.

I didn’t say the GOP had to run a moderate but they have to win that 20% in the middle to win the election so they need a conservative who can appeal to the middle.

Palin has 50%+ unfavorably according to at least one survey…I don’t see someone that polarizing as the type of candidate that will win a general election against the marketed one.

Dickie Dunn on August 21, 2009 at 7:04 AM

Palin has 50%+ unfavorably according to at least one survey…I don’t see someone that polarizing as the type of candidate that will win a general election against the marketed one.

Dickie Dunn on August 21, 2009 at 7:04 AM

The only two possibilities for top of the ticket on the Dem side would be Obama or Hillary, imo. Either one would win hands down if Palin were the nominee.

sherry on August 21, 2009 at 8:43 AM

If Obama continues the way he’s going now whoever runs against him will win. A lot can happen between now and then. People were disgruntled with republicans these last 2 election cycles-the tables are turned next time? Huckabee may be popular but I’m still not sold. I want someone who will come in and hack all the waste and fraud in our government, lower taxes, free up the markets, tort reform, term limits, etc. Big news here in MN yesterday; unemployment dropped! The government hired 2,800 people! Local news actually tried to portray this as a sign the economy is turning around.

Alfresco on August 21, 2009 at 9:14 AM

What this really tells me is that no one really knows anything about Huckabee other than that he’s a smooth talker on Fox News. The breakdowns among educated vs. over-educated would seem to support this. Assuming college and post-grad voters favor candidates with pedigrees, how is Huckster, with his B.A. from little ol’ Ouachita Baptist University doing better than Mitt with his Har-vahd MBA and law degree? Esp. since I would suspect — tho this is a generalization of course — that the more educated a person is, the less inclined they are to be deeply religious, or to care much about a person’s particular religious affiliation. Palin’s numbers seem to track more predictably; I do think we are still witnessing the effects of the media painting her as a dunce (even though I’d say a degree from the University of Idaho is as good as one from OBU or BYU). That being the case, the over-educated won’t back her because only stupid high school grads and dropouts could possibly find anything to support about such a rube as Sarah Palin. I think the fact that the media reported only on her “death panel” comment instead of the entirety of her argument, which was cogent and well-reasoned, may have been damaging among many people who rely solely on sound bites rather than investigating further (since the SRM certainly won’t bother to do so). I think Facebook remains a powerful weapon in her arsenal, but I think she’s also going to have to add some TV face time to her bag of tricks as well.

Bottom line: Most voters are lazy and uninformed, even among the over-educated, and most people are so conformist that they will go along with whatever appears to be most popular. Until it is considered “cool” to be a Palin supporter, I think she will struggle in the polls.

And when Huckster starts getting the kind of scrutiny that Palin has been getting for the past year, he’ll fail as well. For now he’s only leading by default.

NoLeftTurn on August 21, 2009 at 9:25 AM

And it’s funny how no one bothers to see how Huckabee polls specifically in Arkansas. Last I checked, it was pretty dismal. Who would know better than we do what kind of a president he’d make?

If Huckabee wants to be in national politics, he has a prime opportunity right now by challenging Blanche Lincoln to her Senate seat next year. She is in such hot water right now, and it would help a lot to have someone with some name recognition take her on, even if it is Huckabee. I don’t like him, but I am so pissed at Lincoln I would vote for him anyway just to get her out of there and get another checkmark in the R column. I think Huck would be much more suited to the Senate than the White House anyway. The guy is not a leader — not a conservative leader anyway. You can look at his record to determine that much. Virtually nothing was accomplished here in the ten years he was in Little Rock, other than that our taxes went up and our public schools were thrown into utter chaos. Huckabee showed very little leadership on that in particular and it left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths. OTOH, I think he’d be a pretty decent advocate for Arkansas in Washington, and I doubt he’d be too chicken to face his constituents at a town hall or call us un-American to the national media.

NoLeftTurn on August 21, 2009 at 9:59 AM

Mitt’s never going to shake the RINO label, is he?

It’s not the RINO label he won’t be able to shake–it’s the Mormon label.

hicsuget on August 21, 2009 at 10:41 AM

Folks, to repeat myself from yesterday PPP polling oversampled post-grads to the tune of 18% of the actual poll. 35% of the 909 respondents (318)were post-grads while only 17% of those who voted on Nov. 2008 were post-grads according to the exit polls.

And again Sarah Palin’s F/UF with this group is 32/57.

Let me see if I can simplify my argument. Suppose you enlarge the Senate from its original 100 members to 118, with the extra 18 members all following a certain ideological point of view and voting as a bloc when a bill is presented to them. Obviously with these 18 folks in tow the side with the same ideological bent is going to win more than they lose. The term tipping the balance comes to mind. But not only are they going to win but they are going to enlarge the margin of victory.

In the same light, Sarah Palin’s unfavorables will tend to expand as well when you have a significant overabundance of folks not inclined to her being included in the poll. And in terms of her favorables they will tend to become depressed as well.

40/49 was what PPP reported yesterday for Sarah. I don’t believe those numbers are accurate for one second based on the above evidence.

technopeasant on August 21, 2009 at 11:41 AM

Mitt’s never going to shake the RINO label, is he?

It’s not the RINO label he won’t be able to shake–it’s the Mormon label.

Exactly!

There are people who are more concerned about a politician’s religious beliefs than his political beliefs. The 2008 election was a prime example of this because people were talking about Mitt’s faith versus Huckabee’s faith and whether or not it is the “right” religion for a GOP candidate to be. If we keep on arguing about a candidate’s faith, then the Republican party will be in deep trouble for the foreseeable future.

I think what last year’s Prop. 8 campaign taught us was that most of us share the same values, and that’s what unites us. The theology may differ and there’s always going to be a valuable debate there, but if we focus on our common values, there is hope for this country still.

I say people look past Mitt’s faith and give him a second chance in 2012.

Conservative Samizdat on August 21, 2009 at 12:44 PM

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