Hope and Change: Republicans up 5 on generic Congressional ballot

posted at 12:15 pm on August 19, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

How have American voters responded to the introduction of massive spending and government oversight in the era of Hope and Change?  They have shown great enthusiasm — for replacing Democratic leadership with Republicans.  According to the latest Rasmussen poll on the generic Congressional ballot, Republicans have jumped out to their biggest lead in years. Allahpundit posted about this yesterday, but it’s worth a second look to see the crosstab demographics:

Republican candidates have now matched their biggest lead over Democrats of the past several years on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. …

These findings come at the same time that voters, for the first time in over two years of polling, say they trust Republicans slightly more than Democrats on the handling of the issue of health care.

Republicans used to maintain majorities even when trailing on these poll questions.  Democrats didn’t take control of Congress until anti-incumbent fervor hit peak levels in 2006, following scandals in the House.  Despite this major reversal, Republicans probably need a similar catalyst, but ObamaCare and cap-and-tax may be enough.

As is always the case, the independent voters tell the story.  The overall polling shows a 43%-38% advantage for Republicans, but that explodes to 45%-18% among independents.  That’s an amazing 27-point gap, which will be most felt in the Blue Dog districts Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel exploited to gain their majority.  Democrats, especially Congressional Democrats, have utterly lost the unaffiliated voters, which portends a very depressing midterm election cycle next year.

The rest of the demographics show other problems for Democrats.  They have lost their advantage among women, who now favor the GOP by a narrow 41%-39%.  The Democrats lose in every age category except 18-29, which they only carry 44%-34%.  They carry voters at income levels below $40K, but lose every other income demo, by majorities in the $60-75K and $100K+ categories.  They’ve lost all categories of religious voters, which means that the What Would Jesus Cover argument isn’t gaining any traction at all.

Democrats couldn’t have done worse if they had been deliberately trying to lose the 2010 midterms.  Their radical agenda has alienated the nation, which is why we see the angry confrontations in the town halls this month.  That’s no fluke, and these polls prove it.


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Is ManlyRash back? :o)

Mommypundit on August 19, 2009 at 12:52 PM
He and a lovely bottle of chardonnay got me through election night.

sherry on August 19, 2009 at 12:54 PM

No, he’s not back (yet). I’m just suggesting we petition for his return. All in favor, say aye!

Rovin on August 19, 2009 at 1:00 PM

@Bishop on August 19, 2009 at 12:55 PM

An imperfect metaphor, admittedly. I was thinking of some accounts which suggest that the Hessian were overrun so quickly due to their intemperate observation of the Christmas season and killer hangovers.

Bleeds Blue on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM

You need to work harder at your military metaphors; the Hessians never celebrated at Trenton, they were overrun and defeated in fairly short order.

Bishop on August 19, 2009 at 12:55 PM

yep: They had been celebrating–but were drunk and hung over as part of celebrating Christmas, but libs never get too concerned with actual facts.

Janos Hunyadi on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM

Rovin on August 19, 2009 at 1:00 PM

He left on his own. A matter of personal honor. A draft might not be able to reverse that.

Limerick on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM

He left on his own. A matter of personal honor. A draft might not be able to reverse that.

Limerick on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM

Maybe a good ale would.

TXUS on August 19, 2009 at 1:03 PM

Bleeds Blue on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM

It’s not an ‘imperfect metaphor, troll. It’s completely wrong and fundamentally dishonest–just like your faux predictions based on a mind-boggling ignorance of the current economic and political situation and likely outcomes

Janos Hunyadi on August 19, 2009 at 1:04 PM

but libs never get too concerned with actual facts.

Janos Hunyadi on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM

the truth hurts even libs,he’s haveing a hard time shakin that right cross to the chin off.

SHARPTOOTH on August 19, 2009 at 1:05 PM

you get the “blatantblue” Award for being totally wrong: No POTUS has fallen this far in approval ratings as Obama

Um really? Obama’s in the mid 50s. About where Reagan was in his first year in office

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132×8512945

And by 6 months into his first term Clinton was barely hovering above 40

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Clinton_approval_rating.png

Like I said. The Bush boys are exceptions, and Bush II had 9/11 which boosted him to high ratings, which he then fell steadily from over the course of 8 years to record lows. I’m not sure what the obsession is with certain posters wanting to call me a troll, but that inter-board drama is incredibly boring.

CrankyIndependent on August 19, 2009 at 1:07 PM

The behaviors demonstrated by the liberal politicians are not surprising. I have to conclude, therefore, that these voters are like dust in the wind, easily swayed by emotional arguments and idealistic drivel. They could easily be pulled back into the liberal camp by the democrat’s creep to moderation just prior to an election.
 
What we need now, is a clear, consistent, and frequent articulation of why the country is better off following a conservative path rather than a socialist/marxist one. We have, after all, very recent examples to use in illustrating the differences. Unfortunately, the current crop of republicans, as a whole, are not really conservative. Many that are conservative, with few exceptions, seem incapable of articulating conservative values in a positive way.
 
I miss Ronald Reagan — a lot!

ClanDerson on August 19, 2009 at 1:08 PM

The issue polling is what is more interesting than merely pointing out that historical trends/cycles occur. And on issue polling, even with most people identifying as “conservatives” there are quite a few troubling signs for actual conservatives.

CrankyIndependent on August 19, 2009 at 1:09 PM

CrankyIndependent on August 19, 2009 at 1:07 PM

jusy about everything you say is negative towards conservatives, your name fits….

SHARPTOOTH on August 19, 2009 at 1:10 PM

Rovin on August 19, 2009 at 1:00 PM
He left on his own. A matter of personal honor. A draft might not be able to reverse that.

Limerick on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM

I remember it well Lim. And respected his choice to leave. Just visited his site and found it delightful. I may just have to link him occasionally.

Rovin on August 19, 2009 at 1:11 PM

Wow, that generation sure went fast.

I thought Democrats sucked before hating Democrats was cool . . .

NoDonkey on August 19, 2009 at 1:11 PM

CrankyIndependent on August 19, 2009 at 1:07 PM

Today, Obama’s approval ratings are the highest they will be until he gets unceremoniously booted out of office in 2013.

There is nothing on the horizon that will help him. His party’s idiotic, anti-business moves mean that the economy will continue to tank and he will be thrown out of office, a failed one-term president, on that basis.

Unless you see any big successes for this unqualified, incompetent jackass. If so, please predict what wiil rescue this fiasco of an “administration”?

NoDonkey on August 19, 2009 at 1:14 PM

Bleeds Blue on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM
It’s not an ‘imperfect metaphor, troll. It’s completely wrong and fundamentally dishonest–just like your faux predictions based on a mind-boggling ignorance of the current economic and political situation and likely outcomes

Janos Hunyadi on August 19, 2009 at 1:04 PM

Oh, you guys are SO mean!

Actually, it was a decent metaphor for celebrating prematurely and forgetting the real battle. But that’s neither here nor there, I should have just said “don’t count your chickens.”

Those were not faux predictions, btw. (Faux? a little fay, non?) They were of course actual predictions, which may or may not come true.

It’s sad to see so many red-blooded patriots so eager for America to fail and so pessimistic about the ideas and energy of American workers and entrepreneurs.

Have a little faith — it’s the greatest country on earth. Except for health care, of course.

Bleeds Blue on August 19, 2009 at 1:14 PM

CrankyIndependent on August 19, 2009 at 1:07 PM

um, yes. You’re doing a ‘bait & switch’ on different polls: Polls of adults are significantly different than polls of registered voters–which produce different results than polls of ‘likely voters” ( those who have voted in 2 of the last 3 elections and say they intend to vote in the next one )

apples and oranges, troll. Nice try

Janos Hunyadi on August 19, 2009 at 1:15 PM

Have a little faith — it’s the greatest country on earth. Except for health care, of course.

Bleeds Blue on August 19, 2009 at 1:14 PM

Moby, is that you? BTW, if you want to try the Clever Gay meme to insult someone, it’s “fey”, not “fay”.

Don’t try to sound sophisticated; it doesn’t suit you

Janos Hunyadi on August 19, 2009 at 1:18 PM

NoDonkey on August 19, 2009 at 1:11 PM

The problem is Nodonk, it may take a generation to wash the scum off of what once was Liberty and Self-reliance without an overzelous proletariat government.

Rovin on August 19, 2009 at 1:20 PM

An imperfect metaphor, admittedly. I was thinking of some accounts which suggest that the Hessian were overrun so quickly due to their intemperate observation of the Christmas season and killer hangovers.

Bleeds Blue on August 19, 2009 at 1:01 PM

Like all your posts this is common myth

bill30097 on August 19, 2009 at 1:21 PM

It’s sad to see so many red-blooded patriots so eager for America to fail

Please – it’s not that we want our country to fail, it’s that we know that the policies pursued by our incompetent, corrupt president WILL fail. Two different things.

Everything he wants to do has been tried and has failed before. It’s not a question of wanting them to fail, it’s proven that they will fail.

What we truly want to fail is the legislative process. If Obama’s truly stupid policies aren’t passed, they won’t fail. That’s the best hope.

NoDonkey on August 19, 2009 at 1:22 PM

No, he’s not back (yet). I’m just suggesting we petition for his return. All in favor, say aye!

Rovin on August 19, 2009 at 1:00 PM

Get the &%$# out of my head! I was just thinking about him yesterday, and wishing he’d come back. Although I think it would take more than a draft to convince him.

Laura in Maryland on August 19, 2009 at 1:24 PM

Banking system recovered,

Done before he was elected, and we had the bank biggest failure of the year last week.

housing market stable,

Foreclosures at 4 year high.

unemployment dropping (FWIW),

Unemployment rate dropped .1% in a month another quarter million lost their jobs due to jimmied numbers of the long-term unemployed.

stock market inching up,

S&P 500 P/E around 150, an all time high since Depression.

Detroit selling cars,

Compare Ford vs Obamamotors and come back to me.

— given the state of the economy a year ago, I’ll take that.

Economy was better a year ago.

Oh, and all without Republican help. If the economy recovers, and it will, the Dems get all the credit. The only hope of the Republican Party is a crushing double dip recession.

Bleeds Blue on August 19, 2009 at 12:54 PM

When the inflation hits and the $2 trillion deficit gets monetized, we’ll talk again about your hero’s genius.

Chuck Schick on August 19, 2009 at 1:47 PM

“2010? Ha! That’s not a problem. ACORN and the unions have our back no matter what these unAmerican/racist/well-dressed/nazi’s think! Do they really think they will kick us out of power? Don’t the plebs KNOW WHO WE ARE! We control the ballot box from now on! To hell with polls!”

Signed,
Your Democrat congress

FireFly on August 19, 2009 at 1:49 PM

Oh and Blue-

How’s Afghanistan going since Barry tried to mimic the surge? Obama is the first president to fire a theater commander during wartime since Truman fired MacArthur.

July was the worst month of casualties of the near 8 year war, far above the average.

So we can add military strategy to the running list of things of which Obama has no clue.

Chuck Schick on August 19, 2009 at 1:50 PM

Yeah, well Obama is close to cutting and running in Afghanistan.

That will play well.

America just loves presidents who blow wars.

Obama will be lucky to make one term. He should resign now, he has nowhere to go but down at this point.

And six months is all he’s ever spent on the job, so he must be spent.

NoDonkey on August 19, 2009 at 1:55 PM

Good news on a great day so far :)

gophergirl on August 19, 2009 at 2:04 PM

Is ManlyRash back? :o)

Mommypundit on August 19, 2009 at 12:52 PM

Wasn’t he the guy who predicted a McCain landslide?

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on August 19, 2009 at 2:04 PM

Signed,
Your Democrat congress
FireFly on August 19, 2009 at 1:49

You are correct on Democrats depending on ACORN and the 2010 elections.

yoda on August 19, 2009 at 2:12 PM

Unless you see any big successes for this unqualified, incompetent jackass. If so, please predict what wiil rescue this fiasco of an “administration”?

NoDonkey on August 19, 2009 at 1:14 PM

I think the GOP is in serious trouble if a healthcare bill passes with a public option and unemployment is down to the mid 7 range by October 2010 and even lower in October 2012. Now I happen to believe that the economy is not going to recover because we’re about to see commercial real estate hit the fan this September Obama will be blamed by Republicans, Bush will be blamed by Democrats the credit default swapping bankers will rob us for a trillion more dollars and there won’t be any protests….again.

But if it does then the same fickle people who got caught up in the Hollywood story that was the 2008 election (and hell despite not supporting the bastard, I was definitely choked up on election night for all the sappiest reasons) will be fickle again and vote for him. And the reason for that is something that someone else said earlier in the thread, generic ballots are one thing, candidates are another. I honestly do not think conservatives like Pat Toomey have much of a chance. No one in PA even knows who the hell Joe Sestak is and that guy is running competitively against Specter and Toomey. I think the right is really misreading the political winds, the GOP has not resurrected its brand.

CrankyIndependent on August 19, 2009 at 2:13 PM

My only worry is the grassroots movement is trending to conservatism and leaving moderates behind. As we know that will not win elections and will only drive independents away in droves. If we can shut up these loud mouth conservatives and take a more respectful tact we could win seats back in 2010. I say we join hands and stop fighting with liberals. I promise they will not shove their agenda down our throats if we curl up in fetal position. Please I need a moderate to hold my hand and guide me from these animals on the right. Please God help me. Someone hold my hand.

/Big Sarc

chief on August 19, 2009 at 2:17 PM

Obama will be blamed by Republicans, Bush will be blamed by Democrats

Bush will be long gone. People are going to ask what this “brilliant” President and his White House whiz kids were doing all this time and why didn’t they stop it?

Instead, they wasted months on this stupid health care “reform” plan that polls show is being rejected by the American people.

This from the president who signed off on a “stimulus” package that was a complete failure and a scam on top of that. The majority of the country want the money returned today, what will those numbers like when it’s even more apparent that the “stimulus” was a failure?

I think the right is really misreading the political winds, the GOP has not resurrected its brand.

Maybe not, but the Democrats have been serving up crap burgers at their restaurant and I don’t think those are going over well either, at least not to anyone who isn’t already a die-hard donkey.

Unless you really think this president and this Congress are winning over independents and Republicans in droves.

A tear-jerker of a story is a one-time thing. The American people elected the first black president, whoopee. Doing it again just because he’s black (because at that point, that’s all he’ll have going for him), isn’t going to happen.

NoDonkey on August 19, 2009 at 2:27 PM

No, he’s not back (yet). I’m just suggesting we petition for his return. All in favor, say aye!

Rovin on August 19, 2009 at 1:00 PM

He’s too busy with his own website plus activities in New Jersey. Check out the video of MR in his Continental Colonel uniform firing a flintlock.

Way cool. Man of the people.

Sapwolf on August 19, 2009 at 2:28 PM

I remember it well Lim. And respected his choice to leave. Just visited his site and found it delightful. I may just have to link him occasionally.

Rovin on August 19, 2009 at 1:11 PM

Just checked out the Manly Rash site and saw a comment from Grue. Does Grue still have an attic here at H.A.? I remember both of them from pre-election (when I was still a non-registered lurker).

DOOF on August 19, 2009 at 2:35 PM

Manly and Grue don’t post here anymore. But some of the people who post on Manly Rash’s site (Christian Conservative) post on both sites.

Jimbo3 on August 19, 2009 at 2:40 PM

It’s sad to see so many red-blooded patriots so eager for America to fail and so pessimistic about the ideas and energy of American workers and entrepreneurs.

Have a little faith — it’s the greatest country on earth. Except for health care, of course.

Bleeds Blue on August 19, 2009 at 1:14 PM

Jesus…what a moron.

Just keep sticking to your leftspeak, that’s all you need to do for the republicans.

Say hi to Hugo for me will ya?

Spiritk9 on August 19, 2009 at 2:48 PM

The Democrats are so odious that everyone has forgotten how bad the Republicans were when in charge.

The Dean on August 19, 2009 at 2:54 PM

San Fran Nan might well cost the Democrats their majority. I know people who will vote against their Democratic Congressman just to get rid of her.

Terrye on August 19, 2009 at 6:18 PM

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