Rasmussen: Toomey leading Specter by double digits after townhalls; Obama approval at 47%
posted at 10:52 am on August 13, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
Those who thought fiscal conservative Pat Toomey couldn’t win in Pennsylvania may have to recalculate after the eruption of anger towards Congress and their rush to take over one industry after another. Rasmussen reports that Toomey now leads Arlen Specter, the Democratic incumbent, by double digits in a survey of likely Keystone State voters:
Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s voters.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.
These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.
In fact, it looks like a pretty clear wipeout for Specter. In the crosstabs, Toomey beats Specter among both men and women (51-33 and 44-39, respectively), every age demographic, and among independents by 20 points (48-28). Specter looks like a complete bust.
But what about Joe Sestak, Specter’s Democratic challenger in the primaries? Surely the sitting Congressman can do better against Toomey. Actually he does, but not by much. Toomey beats Sestak in this poll 43-35, and among both men and women (48-34, 38-35). Toomey wins or edges Sestak in almost every age category save a 37-36 split among thirtysomethings. Toomey also scores a 16-point lead among independents, 44-28.
It looks like Specter switched parties and gave up his seniority for absolutely nothing. In this season, he would have been better off remaining a Republican in the midterm elections.
I will interview Pat Toomey tomorrow from the Right Online conference, and you can still sign up to come to Pittsburgh to hear him speak.
Update: Rasmussen’s new tracking poll, with data now coming in from after Obama’s first town-hall forum, shows his approval ratings falling to 47%:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 29% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8 …
Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. That’s the lowest level of total approval yet recorded. The President’s ratings first fell below 50% just a few weeks ago on July 25. Fifty-two percent (52%) now disapprove.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans disapprove along with 65% of those not affiliated with either party. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Democrats offer their approval.
As I predicted yesterday, Obama’s reappearance on the health-care reform issue has increased the gap in the passion index to -8. His job approval numbers will continue to fall as long as this bill remains on the table.
Blowback
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I agree, they will pass, and that’s an excellent slogan.
I also think voter anger will undo the Democrat gains and Obama will lose in 2012.
Having said that….I don’t think the Republicans will reverse any of the damage that is going on now because first they will not have a strong enough majority and democrats are going to be SUPER PO’ed. Second, Republicans are too weak and too many RINOS in power.
This is when it will get interesting.
The left and the media already hate middle America and that tired old “freedom” and capitalism stuff, but they will be out to DESTROY the opposition which is basically us. The veil will come off for the left and it will be war (without the guns at first)on America. They will stir the racism pot and try to pit brother against brother and the fabric of our nation will become unglued.
Maybe this is too much doom and gloom but just look at how the dividing line in this country just gets more defined year after year since 2000. Even foreign media reports on this phenomenon on a regular basis.
as a means of comparison, I say it will make the 60′s look calm but this time half the country will be “in the streets” matching the left tit for tat. What happens then when by then the economy will be pretty close to an actual depression?
Goodeye_Closed on August 13, 2009 at 11:33 AM
Specter finished himself off with that “I don’t have to be here” comment. Now he’ll learn about the loyalty that Bambi DOESN’T have towards those who aren’t useful to him anymore. Emmanuel will have a little talk with the old back-stabber, explain to him that the DNC is going in a different direction and he’s on his own. Look for Specter’s announcement that he’s not running for reelection because of health reasons and to spend more time with his family in about, oh, say, 1 to 2 months.
PackerBronco on August 13, 2009 at 11:33 AM
Are you ready to party when we all invade DC?
TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 11:34 AM
Every day that passes, 2009 feels more and more like 1993. If the GOP wins the governor races in VA and NJ in November, it will be even more Deja Vu.
2010 will interesting, 1994 all over again imho.
Norwegian on August 13, 2009 at 11:36 AM
Sad, but no doubt true. Luckily I live in a blood red/rural county. Shouldn’t be any trouble here.
TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 11:36 AM
Yes, but wasn’t murtha’s opponent a write in?
lorien1973 on August 13, 2009 at 11:36 AM
Are you saying we’re going to Washington DC to take back the White House? YEEEEEAAAAARRRRGGGGHHHH!!!
Doughboy on August 13, 2009 at 11:37 AM
Put your anger on simmer. Don’t let it boil away too soon. By election day it will be a delectable broth.
SKYFOX on August 13, 2009 at 11:38 AM
He was an war veteran with a spotless record. I don’t understand what the PA voters were thinking. By the way, were you born in ’73?
TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 11:38 AM
I look forward to the day when an elderly Specter is sitting alone in his house……..
……… by a phone that never rings, with a concerned look on his face as he paces through his empty house, looking out the windows for visitors that never arrive.
Seven Percent Solution on August 13, 2009 at 11:38 AM
Awesome.
TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Epic faliures. That’s what change has brought us.
scalleywag on August 13, 2009 at 11:39 AM
Are you ready to party when we all
invadeliberate DC?TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 11:34 AM
FIF all of us :-)
coldwarrior on August 13, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Sorry, but I think that’s priceless, not to mention hilarious. Loser. Fantastic news all around, I’d say. And I still believe this health care package/reform/boondoggle is toast and it’s a lose/lose for this entire administration. If it passes, they lose. If it doesn’t, they lose. hahahahahahah nanny goat!
scalleywag on August 13, 2009 at 11:42 AM
I don’t mean to be a downer here, but if the election isn’t until next year, doesn’t it seem to be a little early to declare a wipeout?
teffertoes on August 13, 2009 at 11:42 AM
I heard that Acorn has a booth at Grange Fair in Wrightstown this week. You might want to visit and have some fun!
misslizzi on August 13, 2009 at 11:43 AM
sounds like my place!
scalleywag on August 13, 2009 at 11:43 AM
I’m away on vacation, at the beach, with no internet or phone access, and just came into town for the first time in a week, but I couldn’t help myself.
Whom could Ed possibly be referring to?
Jaibones on August 13, 2009 at 11:43 AM
If that’s the case, I really hope we don’t get a bunch of RINO’s in there. We won’t be any better off if that happens.
teffertoes on August 13, 2009 at 11:44 AM
+10000
TN Mom on August 13, 2009 at 11:45 AM
Waterloo!!!!
Johnson on August 13, 2009 at 11:45 AM
Sure, they could turn this around. If they reverse almost everything they’ve done so far and can the cap&trade and health reform nonsense. And stop lying about the protesters. And insulting Americans. And asking people to snitch on each other…shall I go on?
scalleywag on August 13, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Is for an election that will happen November 2010? Or is it a special election. I’m a little confused.
Oil Can on August 13, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Proud to say I was NOT one of them. I knew Obama would tick off the purple electorate of that state with his far left policies and give Toomey a boost…I just didn’t think it would happen this soon.
Also:
Rubio over Crist
McCain over Simcox
Daemonocracy on August 13, 2009 at 11:46 AM
It is. If(and this is a VERY BIG IF) the economy recovers, things improve in Afghanistan, the deficit is reduced significantly, and no middle class taxes are raised, then Obama and the Dems will have a solid record to run on in 2010.
The odds of all that happening within the next 14 months are slim however.
Doughboy on August 13, 2009 at 11:47 AM
I suppose this is a tradeoff, though the 22% of Dems disapproving probably consist of the farthest left faction of the country.
But who are the 23% of Repubs who don’t disapprove? Brooks, Frum, Buckley, Powell, and Parker? I just don’t get this.
BuckeyeSam on August 13, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Are you ready to party when we all invade liberate DC?
This is going to be an event to remember! I am feeling good today.
TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 11:53 AM
Didn’t Hotair bloggers push Tom Ridge? You know a moderate. A hand holder.
chief on August 13, 2009 at 11:53 AM
I honestly can’t see even one of those things happening.
Vashta.Nerada on August 13, 2009 at 11:55 AM
Well, this may be one down and many to go, but who’s going to defeat Reid in Nevada? The R’s there better find someone fast. They can’t depend on just making this a contest about Reid. He’s got the money behind him.
Kissmygrits on August 13, 2009 at 11:56 AM
Looks like Blanche Lincold (D-AR) is in deep doo-doo, too!
Link
Even democrat polling firm PublicPolicyPolling is sounding the alarm for Blanche:
SouthernGent on August 13, 2009 at 11:57 AM
What I mean, is that I thought he didn’t get enough names in time, so people who voted for him had to write him name on the ballot, instead of checking a box.
Yeah. 73.
lorien1973 on August 13, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Never have I taken such pleasure in watching another person fail. I pop a bottle of champagne with each falling poll number. At this rate, I’m gonna be out of Cristal by Thanksgiving.
barrythrowslikeagirl on August 13, 2009 at 11:59 AM
I’m not so sure about that. After he signed on to the Stimulus bill, I think he’d have been vulnerable at the mid-terms. That being said, he made it clear that his switch was only because he wanted to stay in the Senate. That is reason enough to vote anyone out of office.
highhopes on August 13, 2009 at 12:01 PM
But…but…but Allahpundit said we can only win if we move to the center and we run more RINOs……
Don’t these people in Pennsylvania read David Frum?
DanSC on August 13, 2009 at 12:02 PM
You are my age. Sometimes these names can be deceptive. The male/female issue can throw you.
TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 12:02 PM
OMG, I am taking my daughter to that fair tomorrow. You bet I will give them an earful if I see them. WTF is ACORN doing in Bucks County??!?
rockmom on August 13, 2009 at 12:03 PM
While I’m really pleased that polls are trending our way, I’m worried about keeping up momentum into 2010. In political terms its a long way away and we know the MSM will do everything they can to flush this down the memory hole. I won’t be surprised at this time next year the MSM is declaring “the best economy in the history of the universe”.
Right now I think the Dems will Rham through anything, declare victory and tweak things over time.
I’m concerned that the RNC’s leadership is not adroit enough to capitalize on this movement and anger in Washington. This is a moment screaming for a “Contract with America” type resolution. We can turn 2010 into a national referendum on Obama and the Dems Congress.
By the way, how come we don’t know who’s running against Pelosi and Frank? There’s alot of Americans who’d love to see those sleezebags go down, and would throw serious money at their opponents.
Iblis on August 13, 2009 at 12:06 PM
Blanche needs to switch parties. I can’t see her doing it just yet, she’s been a Democrat all her life, but I think she will lose next year otherwise.
rockmom on August 13, 2009 at 12:06 PM
Racist /s
HoustonRight on August 13, 2009 at 12:08 PM
Give it a little time. The Republican brand is still pretty badly damaged. We need to let this grassroots anger and frustration well up AGAINST the Democrats now without giving them anything to hit back at.
I think we really need a conservative version of moveon.org right now to raise money and start advertising without putting the “Republican” stamp on it. This is how the Democrats recovered and eventually won in 2006 and 2008. They didn’t have a big “Contract With America” type thing either they just let the anger at Bush and the GOP Congress build and got some new organizations started to do the fundraising and the advertising. By 2006 it was just “vote ‘em all out” and they didn’t even have to say “vote Democratic.”
rockmom on August 13, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Bill Russell was also basically unknown to the people in that district. This time around (and he is running again) he won’t be an unknown.
either orr on August 13, 2009 at 12:12 PM
LOL. My point is that Bucks is mostly suburban and rural. Not the usual recruiting or advocacy ground for ACORN. This fair is really a livestock show attended mostly by farm families and suburban animal lovers like us. I don’t understand why ACORN would bother showing up at such a place. They do have a very strong organization in Philly.
rockmom on August 13, 2009 at 12:14 PM
Sestak was on Greta last night. He’s for Obamacare.
ROCnPhilly on August 13, 2009 at 12:18 PM
Does sound strange. Either I’ve been blind to it or I haven’t seen activity down here.
HoustonRight on August 13, 2009 at 12:20 PM
Check out 912 org or any of the tea party organizations. They’re very careful to not to align with any party and will call out those not practicing conservative values.
HoustonRight on August 13, 2009 at 12:24 PM
I watched that townhall with Spector; amazing. The citizens had such articulate and informed questions, and the more he talked, the more anyone could see how truly clueless and unintelligent he is. Amazing.
texanpride on August 13, 2009 at 12:25 PM
Dude, Sestak is a far-left douche of the highest order.
Jaibones on August 13, 2009 at 12:27 PM
I think he is just too old. I don’t think he is unintelligent, he just needs to retire. To see people like him, Byrd, and Kennedy hold on to seats just because they can is wrong. If they are no longer serving the people and will not be able to in the future, they need to step down and let the people of their state has adequate representation.
TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 12:31 PM
has=have
TXMomof3 on August 13, 2009 at 12:31 PM
Sestak is a phony leftist. He was bankrolled by a bunch of Clinton people but turned hard left to get the Kos Kidz and other nutroots types on his side. I don’t think he really stands for anything other than his belief in his own brilliance. If Obama really starts tanking in the polls around here he will suddenly turn into a conservative Blue Dog, hide and watch.
rockmom on August 13, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Badda bing, badda boom!
Hening on August 13, 2009 at 12:36 PM
I saw a great line the other day; it might have been in Camile Paglia’s piece. It said that these politicians “have started representing Washington to the folks back home – not the other way around as they are supposed to.” That describes Arlen Specter to a T. Once Washington became controlled by the Democrats again, he became a Democrat – so he could represent Washington to the people of Pennsylvania. That’s what happens when you spend too much time in Washington.
rockmom on August 13, 2009 at 12:36 PM
Whatever Arlen had left in his hip pocket for election, he gave away the other day at the town meeting…he is toast.
Right now, the dems are looking pretty sorry.
right2bright on August 13, 2009 at 12:49 PM
Can Spector really win the Dem nomination in PA? He’s lost all of his senority clout and can’t possibly connect with many of the Philly voters. If he faces a primary challenge, could he be successful if he didn’t move left?
EconomicNeocon on August 13, 2009 at 12:50 PM
Yeah. That’s what I saw. He took his 2 minutes on-air to proffer “I’m one of you” campaign soundbites.
ROCnPhilly on August 13, 2009 at 1:00 PM
No, he wasn’t. I worked on his campaign.
What happened was Murtha got $1.3 million in out-of-state campaign contributions from lobbyists, defense contractors at the last moment.
$1.3 million goes a loooooong way when you also have ACORN “volunteers” to get Murtha’s parasite voters off their couches and into the precincts.
guntotinglibertarian on August 13, 2009 at 1:02 PM
And in a darkened, smoke filled room in the bowels of the DNC, careful plans are being made to smear anyone that is bright, intelligent and with views contrary to their strategy for the destruction of the American Dream. One of them is talking in a low, raspy voice, “We did it to Palin and Coleman, we can do it to anyone else who stands in our way. Our media allies and moles are in place; we have more than adequate funding, our community organizers and unions are ready to suppress those that have the audacity to oppose us…….”.
DL13 on August 13, 2009 at 1:03 PM
Let’s pray Spector wins the nomination. Otherwise, as good as Toomey is, that preening fake Sestak can win the general election. PA is deep blue now.
guntotinglibertarian on August 13, 2009 at 1:03 PM
Sestak won because the long-time GOP Congressman in his traditionally GOP district turned out to have a couple of kids who were doing very, very nicely as Washington lobbyists.
No one even knew who the hell Sestak was. But a three-legged poodle could have taken the seat when the stench from the GOP congressman came wafting into the polls.
guntotinglibertarian on August 13, 2009 at 1:07 PM
Best. Summary. Ever.
logis on August 13, 2009 at 1:09 PM
Since you asked. Women, from an evolutionary stand point are the quintessential collectivists. In early human history, it was the women that stayed around the home fires raising kids, tending livestock and crops while the men went hunting and engaged in warfare.
Like someone else said, giving women the vote was a serious mistake. And I am not ducking. I will go a bit further, anyone that bases their decisions on emotion, has no business voting.
mrpeabody on August 13, 2009 at 1:09 PM
You know, we all owe Arlen a great historical debt.
He was the young lawyer on the Warren Commission who came up with the famous “single bullet theory”.
Although…although…the Zapruder film is one of my favorite movies of all time and every time I watch the money shot, I feel like calling Snarlin’ Arlen and saying,
“But Arlen, the top of his head blew off onto the trunk of the car…”
guntotinglibertarian on August 13, 2009 at 1:09 PM
The Socialist ship Obama has been torpedo- Dive Dive Dive!.
going down with them are all the libtards who think they can control Americans health,wealth,and everything in between.
My donatations are going to Pat Toomey so that he can boot out Sphincter Spector back to the swamps.
hawkman on August 13, 2009 at 1:09 PM
Now that they are in power finally, the Left is at the mercy of opinion polls just like we were. They aren’t used to it.
Speedwagon82 on August 13, 2009 at 1:11 PM
Beating the Obamacare drum.
These folks will have a booth there, too, in case you need a dose of sanity.
misslizzi on August 13, 2009 at 1:12 PM
That’s where our money is going, too. And to Michele Bachmann.
And we live in California.
guntotinglibertarian on August 13, 2009 at 1:12 PM
Who cares? Specter is the very definition of a DINO. We don’t want him either. This is a red vs. red battle — the best kind!
dcwvu on August 13, 2009 at 1:16 PM
Is that a play on the old Soviet production efficiencies?
Ann NY on August 13, 2009 at 1:20 PM
Gawd, where does one start?
How about college? It’s where many a girl learns false notions of freedom from supposed oppression in order to become a woman.
Education is so freeing, like one of these!
misslizzi on August 13, 2009 at 1:26 PM
I hope Specter loses first to Sestak, in the primary, then Sestak loses, to Toomey in the election. This way Sestak loses his Rep. seat and it goes rightfully back to a republican. Curt Weldon should’ve never lost in the first place. Specter gone forever would be enough though.
phillyrepub on August 13, 2009 at 1:27 PM
Free from Specter. Free at last.
petefrt on August 13, 2009 at 1:32 PM
Comparing ObamaCare to the Post Office .. big mistake for Obama and the Democrats.
Arlen should have just announced his retirement.
J_Crater on August 13, 2009 at 1:34 PM
Hydrostatic shock is such a wonderful thing.
Holger on August 13, 2009 at 1:42 PM
Doesn’t help Murtha’s district is a classic definition of gerrymandering.
clement on August 13, 2009 at 2:08 PM
“NOW WHAIT A MINUTE! WHAIT A MINUTE! WHAIT A MINUTE! WHAIT A MINUTE! WHAIT A MINUTE!”
Jim Treacher on August 13, 2009 at 2:09 PM
The good news for Specter: He won’t have to attend town halls anymore in a little over a year.
Sign of the Dollar on August 13, 2009 at 2:18 PM
As a PA resident, I couldn’t be happier. It’s an extremely good sign, but we still have many months to go. Toomey needs to keep raising money like wildfire and Santorum needs to help him here. That would go a long way with conservatives who were miffed about Santorum’s 2004 endorsement of Specter.
Utica681 on August 13, 2009 at 2:43 PM
I’m totally on board with that. But given the way His Oneness gamed the finance system, and Dem Congresscritters will follow suit, it’d be nice to get our guys a big war-chest. And by our guys I mean conservatives not Republicans.
Looking ahead to 2012, I don’t want to be outspent 4-1 (7-1 in some states) and against a hostile media again.
Iblis on August 13, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Speaking of the keystone state….
What is the deal with Murtha calling half the state ignorant red necks and then they end up voting for him?
Do they pull the lever for Murtha and declare themselves part of Murtha’s redneck brigade?
I guess Murtha just pulled off an elaborately egocentric demonstration of how he can insult his constituents and they STILL vote for him!
In all seriousness, I was truly disappointed by that one and it still miffs me that such a working class state with a rich streak of self reliance and sacrifice could turn so blue leaning towards socialism. Granted I don’t know much about the electoral dynamics and voting districts.
Goodeye_Closed on August 13, 2009 at 2:55 PM
Did you ever stop and thing, maybe he was RIGHT?
I mean, they all must have thought so.
logis on August 13, 2009 at 3:14 PM
The stars are lining up against the left.
But what I like is how the rest of America is seeing them for how they really are.
madmonkphotog on August 13, 2009 at 3:51 PM
How much cash would be required to get someone to take our clunker off of our hands? I am sure we could raise a down payment of $1 M immediately through donations limited to $10, no bundlers allowed. A much bigger payment could be available in a week. I am thinking in terms of people like the Castro brothers who are always looking for cash even after the advent of uncle Chavez. Some people are always collecting trash; the Castros might even take him without a carting charge.
burt on August 13, 2009 at 4:03 PM
I’m with those who say that if the economy improves, or the administration can claim any kind of positive outcome, too many people will forget.
rockmom suggested an organization like moveon.org for our side. Consider how the Dems courted moveon.org: it would be nice for the GOP to court us for a change, instead of assuming we will vote for them and ignoring us.
We have to be in this for the long haul, we have to find a way to convince the GOP that they need us. Unless we create some kind of power, they will blow us off as soon as we quit screaming. We don’t have time to make a 3rd party viable. The last election was a step in that direction, but we have to organize, whether we like it or not. I don’t like it, but there is too much at stake.
I wish I could go to Washington with you, but I’m caring for my elderly mother, can’t do it. Make it count!
jodetoad on August 13, 2009 at 5:07 PM
I would love to see Arlen Suspector get his ass handed to him by Toomie. That would be a blessing to everyone to help Arlen retire. He is just another empty suit.
shawno on August 13, 2009 at 10:24 PM
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
I have a couple old wounds I want healed– one is to turn Specter into a SpecTATOR, and to get the equally-ancient Lautenberg out of there. His New Jersey mis-election was a disgrace to the state and the nation.
leftnomore on August 14, 2009 at 1:07 AM
In a free country, understanding why Communism sucks is about as basic as reading and writing. Occasionally somebody will pick up a skill like that after reaching adulthood, but that’s rare. It doesn’t happen to millions of people overnight.
But I think these town halls are starting to get through to even federally-educated people. Somebody summed it up perfectly: Congressmen are supposed to represent their constituents’ interests to Washington, not the other way around.
It’s like that South Park episode where people tried to eat by shoving food up their butts. You don’t have to know all the details to figure out that’s not how the system is supposed to work.
logis on August 14, 2009 at 1:47 AM
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