CNN poll: Obama drops 10 points in 100 days

posted at 12:15 pm on August 6, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

It appears that the second 100 days of the Obama presidency didn’t go as smoothly as the first 100 days.  CNN’s new polling corroborates the remarkable decline in Barack Obama’s job approval numbers, although CNN apparently uses their own scale.  They show Obama with a 56% approval rating, but have to use the least predictive model to get it:

As President Barack Obama approaches 200 days in the White House, a new national poll suggests his approval rating has dropped seven points since the 100-day mark in April. The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Thursday morning also indicates that, while just one in five Americans say that the current economic conditions are good, the number who feel the economy is in very poor shape is dropping.

Fifty-six percent of those questioned in the poll approve of how Obama’s handling his duties as president. Four in 10 disapprove. The 56 percent approval is down five points from June, and represents a drop of seven points from the president’s showing in late April. The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation figures are in line with numbers from most other national polls out the past few weeks.

“Since April, Obama’s rating has stayed steady among white women, but he has dropped 14 points among white men. A majority of white men supported him at the Hundred Day mark, but now most white men disapprove of how he is handling his job,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Obama has also slipped among non-whites, but he still gets support from over 70 percent of that group.”

CNN did not publish the partisan composition of its sample, but perhaps it doesn’t need to do so.  Instead of using a normal predictive model of likely voters (Rasmussen) or even registered voters, CNN opted for “American adults,” the least predictive model — and the one most likely to benefit Democrats.  Not only did they do that, but their disclaimer at the top directly relates to the ethnic demographics that CNN emphasizes in their report:

Interviews with 1,136 adult Americans, including an oversample of African-Americans, conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on July 31-August 3, 2009. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Did they correct for that oversample?  Did they weight the responses?  CNN’s polling data doesn’t explain at all, which leads one to the conclusion that they kept the oversample in the final data.  Given CNN’s conclusions in the polling, it seems likely that a properly-balanced poll would result in lower approval numbers for Obama.

Nor is that the only strange thing about this poll.  One of the questions asked, “How do you personally feel about Barack Obama being president?”, has the following options for response: Thrilled, Happy, Don’t Care, Unhappy, Depressed, No Opinion.  Depressed?  CNN offers two kinds of responses for happy, one for unhappy, and one that asks people to diagnose themselves with a clinical disease.

Even with the friendly sample, 65% of respondents think Obama has tried to take on too much, too fast.  Despite CNN’s spin, the difference of people who think the economy is poor was a single percentage point — 79% now, 80% in April.  Optimism declined by three points, with April’s poll showing that 61% expected a better economy a year later, compared to 58% now.

Friendly samples can’t hide the political problems Obama has caused himself with free-spending policies, statist demands on the economy, and a lack of any real result from his first six months in office.


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Obama has created or saved hundreds of approval points.

LibTired on August 6, 2009 at 12:50 PM

Awesome!

ted c on August 6, 2009 at 12:52 PM

Epic fail

so epic

thunderdome epic

Who run BarterTown?

SDPlissken on August 6, 2009 at 12:52 PM

BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA II, aka BARRY SOETORO:
WORSE PRESIDENT EVER

byteshredder on August 6, 2009 at 12:50 PM

Jimmy Carter is so relieved that he no longer carries that burden.

jana on August 6, 2009 at 12:53 PM

We only torture babies who are still inside their mother.

It’s above our pay grade to judge whether it’s okay, so we err on the side of caution homicide and do it anyway.

jazz_piano on August 6, 2009 at 12:43 PM
God has already made that judgement and all we have to do is reafirm his judgement and live accordingly.

fourdeucer on August 6, 2009 at 12:53 PM

How long until the media proclaims that the dropping in the polls has stabilized?

ICBM on August 6, 2009 at 12:39 PM

Hopefully, not until, say, sometime around next fall.

ChrisB on August 6, 2009 at 12:53 PM

God has already made that judgement and all we have to do is reafirm his judgement and live accordingly.

fourdeucer on August 6, 2009 at 12:53 PM

Evidently the President is serving a different god than you and I.

jazz_piano on August 6, 2009 at 12:54 PM

I’d caution everyone about getting too excited about a meltdown. I’m fully expecting him to be able to use his online army to get poll numbers stable enough to ram something through in September. This is no time to coast.

BadgerHawk on August 6, 2009 at 12:51 PM

The exciting thing is the rapid decline of support for the Obama Regime has been consistent. He’s not leveling out, it’s not slowing, and it’s EVERY SINGLE POLL that he’s down in. None show him up.

wildcat84 on August 6, 2009 at 12:55 PM

If the drop in approval continues Dick Cheney will have a higher approval rating.

farright on August 6, 2009 at 12:55 PM

Obama electronic attacks on stifling dissent is working…..

HotAir is one of the few sites where I can still write something critical of Obama and not get blammed.

izoneguy on August 6, 2009 at 12:56 PM

If the drop in approval continues Dick Cheney will have a higher approval rating.

farright on August 6, 2009 at 12:55 PM

That would definitely cause lib heads to explode.

ICBM on August 6, 2009 at 12:57 PM

I don’t think I can last a whole term.

Daggett on August 6, 2009 at 12:47 PM

We can only wish we lived in a parliamentary democracy. A defeat for Obama’s Coalition Government on something like Health Care would be a vote of No Confidence, since it is a priority. New elections w/c/ould be ordered to take place shortly thereafter.

ChrisB on August 6, 2009 at 12:57 PM

HotAir is one of the few sites where I can still write something critical of Obama and not get blammed.

izoneguy on August 6, 2009 at 12:56 PM

there’s something to be said for restricting new signups.

ted c on August 6, 2009 at 12:57 PM

There is something “fishy” about this poll…better send it on to flag@whitehouse.gov.

right2bright on August 6, 2009 at 12:58 PM

If the drop in approval continues Dick Cheney will have a higher approval rating.

farright on August 6, 2009 at 12:55 PM

Or even Nancy Pelosi.

ChrisB on August 6, 2009 at 12:58 PM

I don’t think I can last a whole term.

Daggett on August 6, 2009 at 12:47 PM

sure you can. Take a knee, drink some water, wipe your face–then get back in the ring. We’re all in this together and we need your gun in this fight.

ted c on August 6, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Evidently the President is serving a different god than you and I.

jazz_piano on August 6, 2009 at 12:54 PM

Understatement of the year.

jana on August 6, 2009 at 12:59 PM

One of the questions asked, “How do you personally feel about Barack Obama being president?”, has the following options for response:

1. Greatest..evah
2. Greatest..evah
3. Greatest..evah
4. Greatest..evah
5. I want to be known as “Thor”

BobMbx on August 6, 2009 at 1:00 PM

One of the questions asked, “How do you personally feel about Barack Obama being president?”, has the following options for response:

1. Greatest..evah
2. Greatest..evah
3. Greatest..evah
4. Greatest..evah
5. I want to be known as “Thor”

BobMbx on August 6, 2009 at 1:00 PM

LOL

jazz_piano on August 6, 2009 at 1:00 PM

CNN offers two kinds of responses for happy, one for unhappy, and one that asks people to diagnose themselves with a clinical disease.

They were probably hoping to get numbers to justify a headline like: Majority of White Americans Report Experiencing Clinical Depression Due to a Black Man in the White House.

Then Janeane Garafalo could say: “I told you so.”

AZCoyote on August 6, 2009 at 1:00 PM

HotAir is one of the few sites where I can still write something critical of Obama and not get blammed.

izoneguy on August 6, 2009 at 12:56 PM

Not true. I’ve forwarded your info to the WH spy network.

Nice knowin’ ya……

/sarc

BobMbx on August 6, 2009 at 1:01 PM

Interviews with 1,136 adult Americans, including an oversample of African-Americans

He has a “rock bottom” and I think with all things considered, the worst he’ll ever be is 40%. Bush’s numbers plummeted because he wasn’t conservative enough… so the Libs that hated him no matter what were joined with the “job disapproval” of much of the Right (including me in one poll).

This is what was never expressed in Bush’s numbers. His low approval ratings were interpreted as “68% of Americans want to move Left” which was hardly the case.

Obama is never going to move far enough right to ever alienate enough liberals to make a difference. Considering everything that has happened so far, he should be hovering around the low 40s now… but he’s buffered by people who have a very specific hate and a very specific agenda.

mankai on August 6, 2009 at 1:02 PM

If the drop in approval continues Dick Cheney will have a higher approval rating.

farright on August 6, 2009 at 12:55 PM
That would definitely cause lib heads to explode.

ICBM on August 6, 2009 at 12:57 PM

CNN and the rest of the pollster would never let that happen…they would skew it big time

cmsinaz on August 6, 2009 at 1:03 PM

Freefall.

BuckeyeSam on August 6, 2009 at 1:03 PM

If the drop in approval continues Dick Cheney will have a higher approval rating.

farright on August 6, 2009 at 12:55 PM
Or even Nancy Pelosi.

ChrisB on August 6, 2009 at 12:58 PM

15% doe’s have a nice ring to it.

heshtesh on August 6, 2009 at 1:04 PM

Don’t forget that at the same six-month mark, 56% of those questioned in the same CNN poll thought Bush’s presidency was a success; 51% think Obama’s presidency is a success.

RandyHaddock on August 6, 2009 at 1:05 PM

I agree and wonder what the coming days will be like. Is he going to live in denial over his popularity and what does that mean for us?

sherry on August 6, 2009 at 12:49 PM

He will probably live in denial.

blatantblue on August 6, 2009 at 1:05 PM

Don’t forget that at the same six-month mark, 56% of those questioned in the same CNN poll thought Bush’s presidency was a success; 51% think Obama’s presidency is a success.

RandyHaddock on August 6, 2009 at 1:05 PM

And each of those polls skewed lib.

LibTired on August 6, 2009 at 1:08 PM

CNN: Obama’s approval ratings down 10 pts.

In an unrelated story, the DNC reports that racism is on the rise, up 10 pts. in the past 100 days. Specific information about the study is unavailable, but the scrupulously honest people in the White House swear the study is legit.

/sarc

jazz_piano on August 6, 2009 at 1:09 PM

I agree and wonder what the coming days will be like. Is he going to live in denial over his popularity and what does that mean for us?

sherry on August 6, 2009 at 12:49 PM

He will be ranting and raving like the delusional Hitler in the bunker.

wildcat84 on August 6, 2009 at 1:10 PM

CNN: Obama’s approval ratings down 10 pts.

In an unrelated story, the DNC reports that racism is on the rise, up 10 pts. in the past 100 days.

jazz_piano on August 6, 2009 at 1:09 PM

And mob rule, Brown Shirtism, and Naziism are up 15.5% just since the Congressional recess.

ChrisB on August 6, 2009 at 1:16 PM

There’s someone at my door, and they’re not carrying a pizza……

ted c on August 6, 2009 at 1:17 PM

One of the questions asked, “How do you personally feel about Barack Obama being president?”, has the following options for response:

1. Greatest..evah
2. Greatest..evah
3. Greatest..evah
4. Greatest..evah
5. I want to be known as “Thor” a RAAAACIST!!!!!

BobMbx on August 6, 2009 at 1:00 PM

Fixed.

wildcat84 on August 6, 2009 at 1:17 PM

Let me know when his approval rating is at Bush levels, ummkay?

Terry Silver on August 6, 2009 at 1:18 PM

Libtards are still in “Approval ratings mean nothing” phase.

Funny how they didn’t feel this way with the last President…

Speedwagon82 on August 6, 2009 at 1:25 PM

Libtards are still in “Approval ratings mean nothing” phase.

Funny how they didn’t feel this way with the last President…

Speedwagon82 on August 6, 2009 at 1:25 PM

lib “logic”:

High approval ratings for BOOOOOSH! mean NOTHING.

Low approval ratings for Zero mean NOTHING.

High approval ratings for Zero mean IWONIWONIWON, bow before The One.

High approval ratings for BOOOOSH! mean NOTHING.

Low

wildcat84 on August 6, 2009 at 1:44 PM

That’s a grim milestone. I’m seeing spirals.

Dusty on August 6, 2009 at 1:45 PM

Poll of people still waiting for their free stuff.

The Joker is no longer cool.

tarpon on August 6, 2009 at 1:47 PM

He will be ranting and raving like the delusional Hitler in the bunker.

wildcat84 on August 6, 2009 at 1:10 PM

Idea, get that video clip of Hitler in the bunker from the movie Downfall and have fun!

Pelayo on August 6, 2009 at 1:49 PM

Drudge line … CNN POLL: After 6 Months, More View Obama Presidency a ‘Failure’ Than Bush…

That’s gonna hurt. Sounds like a quagmire. Does Obama have a plan B?

Dusty on August 6, 2009 at 1:52 PM

CNN poll: Obama drops 10 points in 100 days

How will Anderson Cooper spin this?

***KKKATRINA!!!!!!!!!!!!!GAYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!MARRIAGE!

Upstater85 on August 6, 2009 at 1:55 PM

He has a “rock bottom” and I think with all things considered, the worst he’ll ever be is 40%. Bush’s numbers plummeted because he wasn’t conservative enough… so the Libs that hated him no matter what were joined with the “job disapproval” of much of the Right…

mankai on August 6, 2009 at 1:02 PM

Bing.

Jaibones on August 6, 2009 at 2:02 PM

Opinion Research Corporation

Hmmmm, those words when put into an acronym spell “ORC”. Last I checked Orcs don’t exist…anymore. Therefore this poll is null and void.

FontanaConservative on August 6, 2009 at 2:18 PM

And each of those polls skewed lib.

LibTired on August 6, 2009 at 1:08 PM

I’ve been saying that for months. If a real and accurate poll were conducted, the results would be very bleak for Bozo and his regime.

dogsoldier on August 6, 2009 at 2:25 PM

At a tenth of a point per day that will put him at -1,204 by term’s end…..recklessly presuming there is no incident which precludes him from executing a full term.

Alden Pyle on August 6, 2009 at 2:29 PM

I hope Ochimpy fails.

csdeven on August 6, 2009 at 2:31 PM

Evidently the President is serving a different god than you and I.

jazz_piano on August 6, 2009 at 12:54 PM

Jeremiah Wright. He d@mns America. He’s jealous of those bitter people who cling to the other God.

May the real God bless America, but not necessarily Obama.

Steve Z on August 6, 2009 at 2:41 PM

Time to buy another dog!

Speedwagon82 on August 6, 2009 at 2:46 PM

Hmmmm, those words when put into an acronym spell “ORC”. Last I checked Orcs don’t exist…anymore. Therefore this poll is null and void.

FontanaConservative on August 6, 2009 at 2:18 PM

As somebody posted on another thread, the mellifluous silver-tongued “Saruman” Obama is marshalling his ACORN Orcs against the American people, holed up in their last bastion like the Rohirrim in Helm’s Deep. But Obama’s efforts to force socialized medicine down our throats may have awakened the sleeping giants, like the old slumbering treelike Ents who destroyed Saruman’s empire once their anger was aroused.

Who is our “Gandalf” who can defeat SarObama’s rhetorical wizardry?

Steve Z on August 6, 2009 at 2:55 PM

Given CNN’s conclusions in the polling, it seems likely that a properly-balanced poll would result in lower approval numbers for Obama.

The question really is whether the poll they’re comparing against (which presumably was also their own sampling) was equally lax in correcting for oversamples and such. If the same methodology was used both times, then relative drop would presumably be about the same and the results are valid enough as far as they go.

WashingtonsWake on August 6, 2009 at 3:10 PM

The only thing I want to hear dropping is his blood pressure, down to 0

Jeff from WI on August 6, 2009 at 3:12 PM

Some turds float, some turds sink, and some turds float for a while then sink. Hussein is in process of sinking.

Akzed on August 6, 2009 at 3:24 PM

Like a spring, at some point these numbers are going to be compressed to the maximum and couldn’t possibly get any lower (African-Americans, Libtard base, ostriches, etc.).

At that point the MSM will hype the stabilization of Dear Leaders’ numbers and have their little Libtard round table discussions on how The One’s programs are beginning to “resonate”, and how folks are finally starting to realize that the Lib programs really are what’s best for them…just takes time to realize that a benign autocracy really isn’t all that bad.

Dr. ZhivBlago on August 6, 2009 at 3:30 PM

Interviews with 1,136 adult Americans, including an oversample of African-Americans, conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on July 31-August 3, 2009…

Did they correct for that oversample? Did they weight the responses?

The term “oversample” is a specific term of art in survey methodology which implies weighting of the responses. Oversampling is a very effective technique to improve response rates for sub-sections of the sample. All responses are then weighted to bring the sample composition back to some objective standard for that variable. For most variables (race, in this example), census data is used to determine the objective distribution.

It would be highly unusual for a survey professional to use the term “oversample” and not use proportional weighting for that oversampled variable in the analysis. It would be unethical, in my opinion. It may be hard to believe, but national public opinion polling is conducted by a highly professional, straight-arrow, borderline-nerdy group of people. They all try to devise proprietary techniques to give their companies competitive edges, but I would find it hard to believe that they would violate ethics or fail to follow accepted procedures.

That said, all surveys should be viewed with a critical eye toward methods. Everyone makes mistakes.

blueguitarbob on August 6, 2009 at 3:35 PM

CNN offers two kinds of responses for happy, one for unhappy, and one that asks people to diagnose themselves with a clinical disease.

I hope antidepressants are covered by Obamacare.

HellCat on August 6, 2009 at 6:02 PM

The more relevant poll released today was the Quinnpiac Poll which showed:

1)Obama lost 7 points in his favorables in one month and is now down to 50% favorable, that confirms the Rasmussen DTP showing Obama hovering between 49 and 51% for the last week and the PPP poll released July 20th which showed Obama also at a 50% favorable number

2)Obama is now down to 45% approval with indies which is in line with the Battleground poll, PEW poll and PPP poll.

3)2409 REGISTERED VOTERS were surveyed and the MOE is only + or – 2%.

technopeasant on August 7, 2009 at 2:41 AM

the fall of Satin

bluegrass on August 7, 2009 at 8:01 AM

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