Economists love nothing more than curling up in front of a fireplace with a financial analysis of government policy, allowing the numbers to wash over them like a John Updike novel — or in this administration, more like a Stephen King horrorfest. For the rest of us, though, the numbers and calculations can prove daunting. Keith Hennessey puts the CBO’s latest killer analysis of the House health-care reform bill into graphic form, where everyone can be horrified equally.
For a baseline demonstration of the numbers, Hennessey charts the spending and taxes in the House bill, along with the expected revenue of the proposed tax increase — the “surtax” on the rich — over the next ten years:
Despite Barack Obama’s promises, the cost-saving techniques in ObamaCare only offset about a quarter of all the new spending in the plan by 2019. The offsetting tax increase, Rangel’s surtax, will only generate $87 billion a year by that time, slightly more than half of the next spending increase — and note that revenues almost flatline while spending increases at a much higher rate. What does that mean for the second decade? Hennessey has a chart for that, too:
Click on the image if you need a better look at the data. By the time we get to 2029, ObamaCare will run a $205 billion deficit in that year alone, almost as much as the CBO estimate of the program’s entire first decade. It’s a devastating analysis of ObamaCare, one which Hennessey calls a TKO of the proposal. These charts certainly make that case.
Be sure to read all of his analysis. Curl up in front of a fire. In fact, throw John Conyers’ copy on the logs, since he won’t be reading it before he votes.