A Khamenei-Ahmadinejad split?

This weekend, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad created a fury among his rapidly declining set of supporters by appointing his son’s father-in-law, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, as first vice president, a key position within the Iranian government.  Today, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly rebuked the man he claims was divinely granted a victory in a rigged presidential election by reversing the appointment:

Iran’s supreme leader handed a humiliation to the president, ordering him to dismiss his choice for top deputy after the appointment drew sharp condemnation from their hard-line base, media reported Wednesday.

The move by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to show his need to keep hard-liners’ support even at the cost of angering the president, a close ally — at a time when Khamenei is facing unprecedented opposition after the disputed June 12 election.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s appointment for his top vice president sparked a rare split within the hard-line camp to which he belongs. A chorus of ultra-conservative clerics and politicians denounced his choice, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, while Ahmadinejad had strongly defended the appointment.

However, Ahmadinejad has indicated that he may refuse to follow the “exalted leader,” as Khamenei’s press release calls him, and keep Mashai in place:

It was not immediately clear if Ahmadinejad would cave in to Khamenei’s order.

Ali Akbar Javanfekr, top media adviser to Ahmadinejad, said on Tuesday that the president won’t change his mind over the controversy. But it was unclear if his comments came before or after the supreme leader’s order.

“The president makes his decisions … within the framework of his legal powers and on the basis of investigations carried out. Experience has proved that creating baseless controversies won’t influence the president’s decision,” Javanfekr said in his blog.

Khamenei has it bad enough when his political opponents openly defy his authority.  The Supreme Leader placed the entire legitimacy of his regime on Ahmadinejad; he can hardly afford to back away from the diminutive president at this point.  However, Ahmadinejad needs Khamenei at least as much as Khamenei needs him at the moment.  The Revolutionary Guard and the Basiji irregulars have backed Ahmadinejad because of Khamenei, not in spite of the cleric.  If ever two people needed each other more for their own survival, a better example escapes me for the moment.

What game is Ahmadinejad playing, then?  He obviously wants to stock the government with people of his own clique, and just as obviously Khamenei sees that as a threat.  Khamenei also has to hold onto as many hardliners as possible, because they’re the only ones backing him at the moment.  Mashai has offended this very clique, and Ahmadinejad’s defiance throws all of their efforts on his behalf in their faces.

Put simply, Khamenei may just be realizing that he’s hitched his wagon to an idiot, not a star, which is why many Iranians wanted to see him leave.  It’s almost as if Ahmadinejad is daring the ruling clique to get rid of him after making such a show about validating his election.  It’s a naked power grab, and a laughable one at that.  If Ahmadinejad doesn’t back away from Mashai, the one man who will benefit from this will be Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, whose attempts to circumvent Khamenei may bear fruit if the Assembly of Experts senses that Khamenei has lost his wits, or at least his grip on Ahmadinejad.

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