Rasmussen: Obama 45, Romney 45; Obama 48, Palin 42
posted at 2:11 pm on July 20, 2009 by Allahpundit
This says more about the downturn in The One’s approval ratings than it does about Mitt or Sarahcuda, but you know the Hot Air policy: You can never have too many 2012 polls.
Just 21% of voters nationwide say Palin should run as an independent if she loses the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. Sixty-three percent (63%) say the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee should not run as an independent. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
If Romney secured the GOP nomination and Palin chose to run as an independent candidate, Obama would win the resulting three-way race with 44% of the vote. Romney is the choice of 33% of the voters under that scenario, with Palin a distant third with 16% support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided…
When Romney is the Republican nominee, he beats Obama among unaffiliated voters 48% to 41%. But when Palin is the GOP candidate, unaffiliated voters prefer Obama by a 47% to 41% margin…
In a three-way race, Palin hurts Romney by drawing 28% Republican support. Romney captures 52% of the GOP vote in that scenario.
Lest anyone doubt how overwhelming Palin’s support is among the HA readership, compare those boldfaced numbers to the results of our own poll last Monday. We love you guys, but in case it wasn’t clear from last year’s primaries, a mirror image of Republican voters you ain’t.
Question: Why didn’t Rasmussen poll Obama vs. Huckabee? Public Policy Polling has its own set of 2012 hypothetical match-ups out today and Huck fares best among the big three, trailing The One by six points — the fourth time in as many PPP polls that he’s been Obama’s toughest challenge. Palin trails by eight and Romney by nine (despite doing relatively well with black voters). The most interesting detail comes from another PPP poll taken last week, though: Contrary to expectations, Palin is viewed favorably by 86 percent of Republican voters in the northeast, fully 10 points higher than she is in the south. I’m not sure what explains that — maybe the Republican base in New England has now shrunk to a Hot-Air-ish molten red core so that, paradoxically, “true conservatives” fare better up there than RINOs (see, e.g., Toomey and Specter in Pennsylvania) — but needless to say, it could mean trouble for Romney. If Palin does run, it’s easy to imagine her leveraging evangelicals to squeak through in Iowa; an upset in New Hampshire immediately after that would make her the prohibitive favorite. Expect Team Mitt to work quietly behind the scenes between now and then to make sure as many GOP primaries as possible are open ones.
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scotash on July 22, 2009 at 1:12 AM
In Palin’s defense, she has more experience running things than Obama had, and policy-wise she makes a lot more sense than him. I agree with you that Romney is the best choice so far though.
thecountofincognito on July 22, 2009 at 2:19 AM
No, he isn’t. (Unless he wins the GOP primary this time…)
I voted for Palin because I knew electing Ogabe would be a disaster.
Only 52% of us voted for Zero.
The other 48% had some sense.
Is that strange? Only if it bothers you that more than half of us are idiots.
Palin has experience: as a city councilperson, a mayor, Chairman of state Oil & Gas Board and as Governor.
We know she makes good decisions–she leaves the AK governorship with a surplus and very popular with the people.
She negotiated a $30-40 BILLION contract for a Canadian pipeline, a record in U.S. states’ history.
Palin’s record as AK Governor is far better than Romney’s as Governor of MA.
Mittens has a good record of running businesses using his dad’s money and his not inconsiderable Mormon contacts.
His gubernatorial record, however, is less than stellar.
ObamaCare is built upon the ruins of MA’s MittCare.
And we know he completely flip-flopped in his positions on abortion and same sex marriage and homosexual “rights.”
No, thank you to Mitt.
(And he comes across as a phony–a major problem after all the phoniness and lying of Ogabe’s.)
Jenfidel on July 22, 2009 at 2:27 AM
Romney is a fraud… Failed Socialist Health Care and Unconstitutional Gun Bans…NUFF SAID!
nelsonknows on July 22, 2009 at 3:59 AM
Romney will probably win the GOP nomination though…and lose to a goat. The GOP NEVER learns that fence sitting only gets you violated by a fence post.
nelsonknows on July 22, 2009 at 4:01 AM
Didn’t Romney setup universal health care as governor? How is that fiscal conservatism?
Libertarian Joseph on July 22, 2009 at 6:30 AM
I don’t know if its the health care alone per se ( never miss a chance to toss some latin around) I think its more that he has shown that far from being anti government, he’s a big fan of government getting involved interfering in
basically everything. Thats my beef with Huck as well, hearts in the right place, but just has way too much faith in government. These guys remind me of Bush, but not GWB, rather Bush the elder, a through and through big government conservative. I think the feeling on the part of most conservatives now is that the system can no longer be fixed from within, its going to take an outsider, which is why I think palin’s new tack is rather brilliant. The key to me is the mid terms…if palin stumps for candidates and those candidates rake in the cake and win, not only will she have proved a major point, she’ll have a whole bunch of congresspeople beholden to her. She already seems to have the largest GOP donors looking her way. I also think the mormon thing is an absolute killer for Mitt, but we’ll see.
I personally thing HMS Barry-O is going to hit the rocks so hard that ANY republican we nominate is going to win big, I really do, so lets try and get someone in there who might act like an actual, you know, conservative.
johngalt on July 22, 2009 at 9:17 AM
Can term be defined accurately?
Romney’s proposal to require state resident to carry his/her health insurance IS FAR FROM socialized medicine. Most people are still covered by private health insurance at work. That have not changed. Romney encouraged private insurance company is come up with different options, and compete for the business of those not insured. It is the totally democrat dominated state legislature which altered the original concept, required many services to be covered, and liberalized standard for people qualifying government assistance for the insurance premium that ran up the cost. The final product bears no remembrance to the original proposal. You can fault Romney for giving in and signed the bill. But it is not socialized medicine. There is not one state run health insurance policy. Who do you think end up paying the bill when people who refused to get health insurance go to get medical care? Romney was saying that everyone has responsibility for himself and to society. What is wrong with that?
Is it socialized driving when all car owners are required to carry auto insurance?
bayview on July 22, 2009 at 12:06 PM
Ok, bayview, but still, where does the government, state or federal, presume to have the authority to tell me, a private citizen that I must have health insurance. That sort of intrusive government power trip, now matter who well meaning, is exactly the sort of thing that needs to be fought tooth and nail, its a chipping away of your basic rights, and to me, the most basic right of all..the right to be responsible for yourself.
johngalt on July 22, 2009 at 12:54 PM
You can not buy health insurance, you just forfeit your standard personal deduction when you pay your state income tax.
Does a private citizen has the right to require other people digging into their pocket to pay for your health care because you claim you have the right not to buy insurance or then you do not pay your medical bill because you do not have insurance and you spent your money for your plasma TV?
bayview on July 22, 2009 at 1:14 PM
The penalty of not carrying health insurance in Massachusetts is not you lose your standard personal deduction when you pay your state income tax. That is the major weakness why the plan is not working. Those people who do not carry insurance are most likely NOT paying tax anyway. Many of them will continue on their merry way. They would not get insurance even if there are government assistance in premium payment. They go to the ER or have major surgery or treatment and then say they have no ability to pay, and the taxpayer still get stuck with their bill.
The same go for the illegal aliens who get paid under the table and they do not file income tax return.
bayview on July 22, 2009 at 1:29 PM
YES.
Short answer.
Long answer: Why would you subsidize a for-profit that fails when it charges too much? First you write a blank check to for-profit industries, then berate me for a lack of “civic duty” when I refuse to keep it afloat by shopping at the company store of HMOs??
Why not float GM by requiring every American lease a Jeep? You don’t want endless bailouts, do you? DO YOU? Well then! Get in line, peon!
Chris_Balsz on July 22, 2009 at 1:41 PM
Let me fill you in with another tidbit just released by PPP polling on its July 20th poll:
Remember in terms of favorablilites among all Republicans Sarah leads all GOP contenders at 76% (Romney is at 54). And yesterday we learned that Sarah was leading among moderate Republicans at 64% (Mitt was at 45%). And today PPP polling revealed that Sarah leads in favorabilities amongst CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS at 81% (Romney is at 58%).
Folks, Sarah is in tremendous political shape for the 2012 primaries and after July 26th her numbers will go through the roof.
Obama and his war room are terrified by Sarah.
technopeasant on July 22, 2009 at 1:43 PM
You can choose to do whatever you want to. Just do not expect somebody else to pay for your choice. Since you do not want to” benefit” the for profit system, you can choose to stay home when you are sick and die at home. Just do not ask us to pay for your medical bill or your funeral expense.
(You know the funeral industry is also for profit, you should stay as you were in your death bed.)
You have the right not to buy health insurance, You do not have the right for a free ride at some other people’s expense.
bayview on July 22, 2009 at 1:54 PM
I
PAY
MY
BILLS
FOR
SERVICES
RENDERED.
I won’t pay YOURS by buying a useless plan from YOUR insurance company–just because.
Or do you only get back what you pay in premiums?
Thinkaboutit.
Chris_Balsz on July 22, 2009 at 2:21 PM
I presume his war room is made up of primarily journalists…
right2bright on July 22, 2009 at 2:26 PM
If you say you are paying out of your pocket for any care you you received, you are paying to subsidize someone. Most likely for those who do not carry insurance and then become a deadbeat for the bill.
The hospital also charge more for individual paying their own bill than what they charge the insurance plans. Because they have a large number of patients enrolled in their plans, they forced the hospital into giving them a lower rate.
bayview on July 22, 2009 at 2:34 PM
I don’t “claim” to have the right to not buy insurance, dude, I do have that right. and i don’t believe in any socialized medicine, so wouldn’t expect anyone to pay for my health care, thats a straw man argument. I don’t think we should be subsidizing anyones health care, except children, and certainly not illegal aliens as we are now. Again, it comes down to basic freedoms, the freedom to choose my own plan or none at all, and my own doctors as well. You want to sacrifice self determination in exchange for some warm and fuzzy feeling of security thats going to be illusory anyway.
johngalt on July 22, 2009 at 2:42 PM
Thanks for digging into the details of the latest PPP.
Since July 3, when Sarah announced her resignation, it has been fun to watch so many EXPERTS get it the analysis totally wrong.
Many said she would fade and her chances were gone blah blah blah.
I knew it was a brilliant and bold move on her part. But you had to be aware of certain facts, the details on the ground in AK, and the law suits, to see it.
Geochelone on July 22, 2009 at 2:45 PM
the problem with obama is not his inexperience, its that he’s a moron, doesn’t understand the economy and is only concerned with paying off his pals and favorite special interests and securing more power for himself and over you.
I need convincing that Romney is not a big government type and would bring real change to washington. so far, I think hhe’s a competent Rudy type executive, but am unconvinced he gets it on cutting the size and scope of government, the importance of US energy independence, immigration, and a host of other issues. My mind isn’t closed, though, so feel free to sell me.
johngalt on July 22, 2009 at 2:52 PM
Sorry, but your argument makes no sense to me. Experience doesn’t matter much for if you also happen to be a RINO (which Romney is).
Norwegian on July 22, 2009 at 2:56 PM
Dude, the man has paid more taxes then all of hotair put together. What makes you think he loves them so much? Also he refused to take salary as Olympic CEO and Gov. He promised the same as POTUS. He doesn’t think taxes, big gov are the solution.
hanzblinx on July 22, 2009 at 3:00 PM
Warren Buffett has paid more taxes than Romney, and he endorsed Obama.
The amount of taxes paid doesn’t indicate whether a candidate is conservative or not.
Norwegian on July 22, 2009 at 3:06 PM
How that translates into a duty to pay money every month to an Insurance Company that goes out and refuses to pay the hospital for 20% to 100% of charges, I don’t know.
If everybody who bought health insurance, got it back in treatment, the insurer goes broke.
So what does it tell you when they don’t go broke?
Why don’t you reform the hotel industry by mandating every American reserve a room? Whether they use it or not?
Why don’t you reform the airlines by mandating every American buy a ticket? Whether they use it or not?
Don’t you want to save jobs?
Makes the same sense–and we don’t need govt to cram it down our throats.
And again–if what is going on in Massachusetts is a sick betrayal of the Romney vision, why is Romney so proud of it?
Chris_Balsz on July 22, 2009 at 3:23 PM
Just like JFK. I’m not impressed.
atheling on July 22, 2009 at 3:26 PM
Geochelone on July 22, 2009 at 2:45 PM
How much do want to bet that these numbers don’t get any play on the MSM including Fox News. Instead it will all about Sarah being a crook and stealing from the legal defense fund (she has not touched a dime so far).
By the way here is more evidence via the American Research Group (ARG) poll that Obama’s favorables are declining:
F UF
OVERALL 52 44
This confirms the Rasmussen daily tracking poll (51%) and the recent PPP poll (50%)
D R I
F 84 9 46
UF 11 88 52
Even some the RINO’s or blueblood Republicans have deserted the Messiah and this poll further confirms Obama losing popularity among independents.
technopeasant on July 22, 2009 at 3:49 PM
Your misunderstanding of how insurance, risk pool sharing or any business work is amazing. Insurance company is probably some evil scheme spawn by the freemasons and the illuminati.
The airline should be run like this. You can come on in and fly free to San Francisco if you like to. You have the right to fly. We will just charge some other more for their tickets. Come to think of it, we will also charge those who is not be flying for your privilege. We should charge those rich bastards who have private jets 40% of their worth. Damn greedy rich guys should be soaked.
The airline can refuse to fly someone who did not buy a ticket. Your laisser-faire approach would work only if doctors and hospital can refuse to provide care to anyone who does not pay his/her bill.
bayview on July 22, 2009 at 4:05 PM
I hear ya. But Palin has many enthusiastic supporters which is evident from the polling data.
Its is fun to watch skeptics have their theories refuted day after day. Even many on this board hate me saying
It drives them nuts. That woman MadCon sits on this board all damn day and tries to nip at peoples ankles like a little poodle.
This is what she said:
Cracks me up.
Geochelone on July 22, 2009 at 4:47 PM
You better watch out. The high school squad is going to come after you for that!
atheling on July 22, 2009 at 5:08 PM
It’s certainly something to avoid if you can afford it.
Wait–do you seriously imagine, that ScamCross and SimCity Hospital have already agreed on the payout on IDC9 codes, and that if I go in with a broken arm and give my Scamcross policy number, a bill presented by SimCity Hospital to Scamcross on my behalf is paid in full within 30 days? BWAHAHAAHAA!!!! Try 180 days. Try some of it, never. MFCCs do not take insurance AT ALL, because they never got paid.
Beats your system, where I pay AirCare Insurance >$100 to have all my travel arrangements taken care of, even if I never fly at all. By Law. And then when I do fly, I’ll still pay a deductible. And the airline has a guarantee of pay…after a review…or three…and an offer to setoff a chunk…
IF they needed 100% of the payment within a month. Which they don’t.
Chris_Balsz on July 22, 2009 at 6:48 PM
hanz, never said he loves taxes…but face it, ANY gop nominee is going to run on tax cutting, that’s a no brainer…and refusing to take as salary when you are a billionaire is not that impressive, its grandstanding… Bloomberg does that in nyc, and if he’s a conservative,
I quit. I think his statements so far on obamas healthcare plan have been extremely troubling. Mccain lost the election in one 3 hour stretch where he mistakenly supported the bailouts, and lost 7 million bush voters.
people want real change this time. I know I’m not going to get a true libertarian in office, but Palin appears to be the closest I’m going to get…his record in Mass (admittedly a very blue state where he had to work with the dems ) is mixed. Again, I’m ready to be sold, so tell me….where does he stand on illegal immigration ? drilling in ANWR ? off shore drilling ? Tort reform ?
johngalt on July 22, 2009 at 10:28 PM
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