Prediction:

2009, summer. Health care FAILS miserably in the house, 235ish-200ish. ZERO republicans vote in favor, most all blue dogs (and some ‘first term’ dems in fear of reelection) vote against. Obama weakened, popularity average low 50s, accurate polls have in in the 45-49 range.

2009, fall. Cap & Trade fails in Senate. defeated by a wide margin, nearly 70-30. Obama dips to average of high 40s approval after more liberal ramming attempts

2010, winter-spring. Unemployment rises, recession continues Unemployment hits 12-13% nationally, with over 25% in hard hit states like Michigan. Obama personally attacks April 15 tea party protestors, calling them “unpatriotic”. Approval rating in low 40s.

2010, summer-fall. Recession starts to ease, but unemployment still high. Supposed ’stimulating’ jobs are really short-term things like sodding the national mall, that have an end date, and unemployment nationally still in the 13% range.

2010, november. Republicans clean up in Congressional elections, but still in minority. GOP does well but had a big hill to climb after losing 65 reps in 2 election cycles. Close the gap in the house to something like 225-210, close senate gap to 54-46. Obama low 40% approval.

2011. Bad economy, anger at DC. Stimlus supposed to take effect the most in this year, but, “amazingly”, deficit spending doesn’t save the economy. Employers saddled with higher corporate income taxes won’t hire as many employees. Whoda thunk it. Conservative coalition of blue dogs + reps keeps any obama legislation from passing. Anger at dems in charge + Obama. Approval dips into 30s in Rasmussen for first time.

2012. Judgement Year. With double-digit unemployment continuing, a “do nothing” democratic congress (a label given by the president to his own party), and wasteful government spending by the trillions, approval of Obama fluxes between high 30s and 45%. Trying the Dick-Morris-esque strategy for Clinton of “moving to the center”, Obama calls for “real budget reform”. His calls are laughed off by teaparty protestors, who have a march on washington that brings 500,000 on tax day (a sunday, as most protestors have work weeks to worry about).
When unemployment hits 15% in january,

Hillary “reluctantly” throws her name in the race, and wins a few primaries in February before again losing to Obama in the end. This dem primary contest reenergizes dem voters, but strangely, the black support for Obama has fallen below an unthinkable 80%. The slogan “2008 was for history, 2012 is for my job” is muttered among American blacks (who, as is sadly typical in recessions, are hurt by unemployment much worse than whites, so a 15% national unemployment rate would equal about 19-21% unemployment for black Americans).

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney buys Iowa and campaigns with a flashy promise of ‘financial frguality & fiscal forbearance’. it doesn’t ignite the base, but it sells for a bit. The real story is the resurrection of sarah palin from punch line to powerhouse. after a tough primary that saw Palin beat the divided RINOs of romney & michael bloomberg, Palin names new Florida Senator Marco Rubio to the ticket as VP.

In the October debates, Palin delivers a knockout blow when, after Obama looks at her and said “you quit on Alaska”, Palin winks and says “maybe so Mr. President, but you quit fixing our economy 4 years ago”. The normally quiet debate crowd at the University of Virginia erupts into cheers. For obama, it’s all about damage control in his upcoming loss.

Obama dumps Biden as VP (citing “health reasons”) on October 15 to shake things up, and names Hillary as his new VP. but hillary, ready to stick the knife in the back of Obama again, declines to show up at the introduction presser with Obama, and holds her own press conference 30 minutes later saying that “I know this is awkward, but I never told Mr Obama I’d do this…. I’m not Obama’s mate”. Screwed and perplexed, Obama abortively names Kathleen Sebelius as his “real” VP nominee, and resumes campaigning — with Biden as current VP, Sebelius as a “possible future” VP, and Hillary cackling anonymously sending Palin donations from fake internet names “Good Will” and “Tony Romo”.

Election day comes and Obama, approval now mired in the 30% range after “Vice-gate”, loses in a 1920s/1930s style electoral blowout — 532 EVs for Palin-Rubio, 6EVs for Obama-Sebelius (DC & Vermont). Final popular tally: Palin-Rubio 62%, Obama-Sebelius, 38%. Just bigger than LBJ-Goldwater, or Coolidge, or FDR, it’s the biggest knockout punch in American politics. The coattail effect is massive, finally returning the house and senate to the GOP. A huge flip comes up, and when the dust settles, the GOP inexplicably has 300+ reps (many in places like Mass or MD will lose in 2014, but hey, it’s a start). The domination isn’t as big as FDR in the new deal (333 “D” reps), it’s more in line with the GOP in the anti-League of Nations era (300 “R” reps in 1920). The Senate flips to “R”, as the weak dems elected in 2006 fall to reelection: tester, mckaskill, whitehouse, casey, klobuchar, etc… GOP gets 59 senators total, most in 100 years.

Palin-Rubio have two years to cut down the federal govt. Palin proves to be something a libertarian when it comes to DC; she cuts taxes, merges several cabinet departments, privatizes a lot, and gets a balanced budget through congress…………. Obama, at home in Chicago, writes another book called “Nightmares from my furious used-to-be-a-First Lady”, followed by his memoirs “George W. Bush, or how I learned to stop worrying and love 19% unemployment”

The end?

battleoflepanto1571 on July 19, 2009 at 3:22 AM