Gallup poll of Republicans: Romney 26, Palin 21, Huckabee 19

As you folks know there is a decided gap between Sarah Palin’s favorability numbers among her own party and/or Republicans and Republican Independents and who would vote for her as POTUS as multiple polls have suggested over the past month. Here is my take on why this is so:

1)There is a certain segment of Republicans or conservatives who firmly believe that Sarah will be politically too damaged by the MSM to be a viable candidate in 2012 even though many of them like Sarah or her policies. This is a legitimate viewpoint that I hope does not play out this way but it must be acknowledged as a concern by party members. Sarah must prove to the party over the course of the next 16 months that she can withstand or bear up to the scrutiny of a 24/7 MSM full court press. Consider the next 12 monts as the regular season and the leadup to the 2010 midterms as the playoffs. In professional sports you are measured mostly on how well you perform and execute in the playoffs. The MSM take on Sarah Palin will not matter if Sarah performs well in the 2010 midterms.

2)There are many party members who profess skepticism over Sarah’s leadership abilities or skills, especially with her being able to orchestrate huge gains for the GOP in the House and/or Senate in the 2010 midterms or perhaps take back a house, although they like Sarah personally and fully acknowledge she has potential

3)Then there are those who see Palin as a disaster for the party, who cannot envision Sarah uniting the party after she prevails in the primaries, forgetting that Reagan was as despised just as much as she is and that Reagan not only managed to unite the GOP in 1980 but also used the unity as a springboard to a landslide victory

4)Sarah is not prepared to be POTUS right now. I will concede that Sarah Palin is not ready to be POTUS right now because she has been rightly preoccupied with state matters and has not focused her attention exclusively to national issues. However, I believe this perception will gradually change over the next 2-3 years and the gap will close as Sarah uses her time in the wilderness (without a job)to get her ducks in a row and built up her national resume and credibility by writing op-ed columns, giving speeches, raising a boatload of money for the GOP, and appearing frequently on TV and radio to espouse her conservative viewpoints

5)Right or wrong Sarah is not perceived by many Republicans to be ‘an economic genius’ that Romney is presented to be. The gap reflects these folks recognize Sarah for her likeability or charisma but don’t think she has ‘the right stuff’ and is not the right person in 2012 to get the country back on track after Obama gets through destroying the American economy. Over the next 2 years Sarah has to build up her economic creds (speeches, interviews, academics and economists who back her positions)if she wants to assuage these folks of her economic competence and to convince them she is worthy

6)Some Republicans are concerned that the ‘quitting meme’ will be used by the Democrats to tear down Sarah’s credibility in the general election to create doubt in Sarah’s psychological makeup, her temperament to lead, and imply to older voters she is stereotypcially a flighty, whimsical female who doesn’t know her own mind and suggest that met with the first great challenge to her Presidency would bail out on the American people because she could not mentally stand the stress or pressure of live-and-death decisions

7)Some primary voters are concerned about Levi Johnston and wonder what future revelations about Sarah and the Palin family he may unveil down the road to damage Sarah’s personal and political reputation. The gap reflects the doubt some people have that Sarah can overcome Levi, the Bristol pregnancy and the tabloidization of the Palin family politically speaking

8)Sarah is 45 and if nominated by the GOP as its standardbearer in 2012 will be 48. Some folks who personally like Sarah (John Ziegler, Ann Coulter)simply feel that Sarah should wait till 2016, 2020 or 2024. She has plenty of time to gain the necessary gravitas to be taken as a serious candidate. Simply put they don’t feel she is ready yet

9)In the evangelical community there is something that is not spoken about openly but nevertheless is real, that there is a misogynistic streak among some members. Some evangelicals may openly like Sarah or favor her brand of conservatism but cannot bring themselves to cast a vote for Sarah because she is a WOMAN; enter Mike Huckabee to the rescue

10)And there are members of the GOP who subscribe to the notion that Romney is next in line in 2012 (eg Charles Krauthammer). Sarah will have to wait her turn regardless of her qualifications

technopeasant on July 16, 2009 at 6:41 PM