Gallup poll of Republicans: Romney 26, Palin 21, Huckabee 19
posted at 4:30 pm on July 16, 2009 by Allahpundit
Within the margin of error, as these early polls of Republican frontrunners always are. Interestingly, while Sarahcuda’s favorable rating among Republicans remains dramatically higher than either Mitt’s or Huck’s (partly due to the fact that she’s much better known), she can’t put any daylight between herself and them as a choice for the nomination. And then there’s this:
On the plus side, she hasn’t really lost — or gained — any ground with Americans since last fall. On the minus side, you can imagine the Huckabee attack ad already: She’s unelectable.
Question: If both Romney and Palin announce that they’re running, does Huck drop out and play kingmaker instead? He’d have an outside shot to win a head-to-head race with Romney on the strength of the “anyone but Mitt” vote from evangelicals and “true conservatives.” He’d have an outside shot to win a head-to-head race with Palin on the strength of the “anyone but Sarah” vote from centrists. But what shot does he have to win a three-way race when the “anyone but Mitts” will probably break for Palin and the “anyone but Sarahs” will probably break for Romney? The smart move, I’d think, would be to stay out and sell his endorsement to one of the other two candidates, possibly in exchange for the VP slot. He can do more for Mitt than he can for Palin by giving him the Christian seal of approval, but maybe that prospect is reason enough for the ‘Cuda to recruit him and keep him on her side. Could he suppress his disdain for Romney even in return for a spot on the ticket, though? And could Mitt tolerate the idea of working with him for four years in return for winning the nomination? Magic eightball says: Unlikely.
Blowback
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Woooot! Romney 2012.
Glenn Jericho on July 16, 2009 at 4:31 PM
This would disappoint me if I was a Republican, but seeing that I’m a Conservative…meh!
jimmy2shoes on July 16, 2009 at 4:32 PM
3 1/2 years away. These numbers should hold. /s
portlandon on July 16, 2009 at 4:32 PM
He won the Iowa straw poll as well.
Look how well that worked out for Mittens and his magic underwear.
omnipotent on July 16, 2009 at 4:32 PM
where has mitt been on the healthcare debate?
joey24007 on July 16, 2009 at 4:32 PM
Sessions does Crack!!!!
birdhurd on July 16, 2009 at 4:32 PM
Maybe the MSM will go after him now? …Not!
Firebird on July 16, 2009 at 4:33 PM
There’s gotta be someone else
blatantblue on July 16, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Dude. Allah. It’s three freakin’ years away. It’s irrelevent. Wasn’t Rudy supposed to walk away with the nom. at this point in 2005?
Pasalubong on July 16, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Nobody but Palin should run. How is Mitt going to win with his bundling health care plan in court in Massachusetts he set up? NO way.
Sheoncebelieved on July 16, 2009 at 4:34 PM
If obama looks like he’ll be re-elected, Huck is the nominee. If not, Palin or Mitt are. It’s simple.
lorien1973 on July 16, 2009 at 4:34 PM
I wish Sessions would run for President.
Mitt should worry. Sarah is just getting started and already she’s in second. Give her time to shut everyone up and this could be Palin, Mitt and Huck instead.
Thunderstorm129 on July 16, 2009 at 4:34 PM
Remarkable, given the months-long slime treatment Palin’s gotten.
ddrintn on July 16, 2009 at 4:34 PM
What Huckabee should do is run against Blanche Lincoln in 2010 for US Senate. He would give the GOP a great shot at picking up a seat. It doesn’t look like anyone capable of winning is coming forward to run. It’s frustrating that the GOP can’t find a viable candidate in a state that McCain easily won.
Mark1971 on July 16, 2009 at 4:35 PM
You think it won’t come down to at least two of these three? Tell me who else you have in mind.
Allahpundit on July 16, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Rush’s comments on the favorable aspect was good.
Spirit of 1776 on July 16, 2009 at 4:36 PM
He Can’t. He is hiding out.
portlandon on July 16, 2009 at 4:37 PM
Meghan McCain! Haha.
jimmy2shoes on July 16, 2009 at 4:37 PM
Going into 2007, I either hadn’t heard or only briefly heard about any of these people. Some strangers are going to come along over the next couple of years and make us look stupid all over again.
How are George Allen’s numbers still looking? (!)
askheaves on July 16, 2009 at 4:38 PM
Remember, AP: Cut left to right, not right to left.
Jim Treacher on July 16, 2009 at 4:38 PM
Dude, chill with the Mormon bashing.
Abby Adams on July 16, 2009 at 4:38 PM
I agree.
ladyingray on July 16, 2009 at 4:38 PM
Mitt or Palin as the GOP nominee in 2012? I can live with that. Like any of us would vote for Obama in that scenario? Please.
I still maintain that Palin is a shoo-in for the nomination if she wants it. Especially if she can help the GOP take back the House next year.
Doughboy on July 16, 2009 at 4:39 PM
I don’t buy the premise that “she’s so much better known.” Romney finished 2nd in the battle for 2008 and Huckabee stayed to the end (for no apparent reason). Believe me Republicans know full well who all of these players are.
bestwins on July 16, 2009 at 4:39 PM
Cool. I remember just how accurate the polls from 2+ years out was for the GOP last time. GOP nominee Giuliani did get drubbed by Barry though.
Hey, wait a second…
Physics Geek on July 16, 2009 at 4:40 PM
He’s unelectable. And when he drops out, his voters will go to Palin.
Blake on July 16, 2009 at 4:40 PM
I thought Rudy lost to Hillary.
lorien1973 on July 16, 2009 at 4:41 PM
“Kingmaker”? More like kiss of death.
This begs the question and maybe you have the archives to answer it: In 2004/2005, did you have Huck in your top three for the 2008 GOP primary (which is where he finished). I hadn’t started reading HA at that time so I don’t know.
LastRick on July 16, 2009 at 4:41 PM
I hate these games already. I hate how Republicans end up trying to skewer people in their own party. I hate how Republicans can’t put aside their bickering for the good of the nation and just try to get someone that’s actually good for the US elected. These politics are killing our country.
Tuari on July 16, 2009 at 4:41 PM
That’s assuming we have a nation left, after more than three more years of the Golden Turd.
TexasJew on July 16, 2009 at 4:41 PM
Where is America’s mayor?
tommylotto on July 16, 2009 at 4:42 PM
I agree. I still think it will be a House member (like Paul Ryan or Mike Pence) or a Senator (like Thune or Kyl). Not any of the three candidates constantly mentioned.
NathanG on July 16, 2009 at 4:42 PM
OT (via Drudge): ATMs Defend Themselves With Pepper Spray…
Can we do this with voting machines\booths?
WashJeff on July 16, 2009 at 4:42 PM
In reference to my comment at 4:41, that’s my guess as well: our idea of the GOP ticket was way off.
LastRick on July 16, 2009 at 4:42 PM
These politics are killing our country.
Tuari on July 16, 2009 at 4:41 PM
Stupid Republican politics are not the main thing that’s destroying our country, at the present time.
TexasJew on July 16, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Can we have at least 300 comments explaining how Palin is inevitable and also super awesome? Thanks.
brak on July 16, 2009 at 4:43 PM
If Romney were our nominee to begin with, we might’ve not ended up in this socialism nightmare.
The Ugly American on July 16, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Why would Huckabee with better polling numbers than either wish to defer? It doesn’t make any sense at all.
CMonster on July 16, 2009 at 4:44 PM
Since we Christians are gullible and easily led, we’ll obediently follow whichever way the wind blows The Prophet Mike (Pizza Be Upon Him).
/sarc
OhioCoastie on July 16, 2009 at 4:44 PM
I’m not saying John Doe’s gonna spring out, I’m saying polls like this are meaningless 3 years out. It’s like trying to predict who’s going to win the Superbowl in 2011. Plus, everyone knows that in politics things can turn on dime– why care about Huck-maybe-playing kingmaker scenarios now?
Pasalubong on July 16, 2009 at 4:44 PM
Newt
joe_doufu on July 16, 2009 at 4:44 PM
Boy after the relentless MSM and insider elite attacks that 21 number sticks out like a huge red thumb.
Bulldogger on July 16, 2009 at 4:44 PM
I personally think Palin is inevitable and also super awesome.
Pavel on July 16, 2009 at 4:45 PM
And the halls of Choate rang with a mighty “Romney — Huzzah!”
Terry_Dyne on July 16, 2009 at 4:45 PM
Tuari on July 16, 2009 at 4:41 PM
Don’t worry. It’s natural
Hillary and obama savaged each other in Thunderdome for months
and which party won
blatantblue on July 16, 2009 at 4:45 PM
There’s gotta be someone else
blatantblue on July 16, 2009 at 4:33 PM
I also agree. It’s way too early but of the three, I’d pick none of the above.
txag92 on July 16, 2009 at 4:46 PM
Also, if someone said Palin were inevitable and also super awesome, I would like totally agree with that.
Pavel on July 16, 2009 at 4:46 PM
I don’t think the question is whether she wants it or not, … I don’t think she does, but if she feels she can beat Obama over someone else, she’ll accept it.
darwin on July 16, 2009 at 4:47 PM
blatantblue on July 16, 2009 at 4:45 PM
Hope everything is ok. :)
txag92 on July 16, 2009 at 4:47 PM
Palin and Mitt are far from my first choice…
But if it does become a three-way race with Huck, Mitt, and Palin, I’d support Palin.
Which might surprise some.
JetBoy on July 16, 2009 at 4:47 PM
Where was Romney manufactured?
Punchenko on July 16, 2009 at 4:47 PM
If Palin manage to draw conservatives to win 2010, there will be no debate.
the_nile on July 16, 2009 at 4:48 PM
Mitt Romney doesn’t make any sense at all
CMonster on July 16, 2009 at 4:48 PM
Well, it has to be someone with an idea of how to campaign. I got it! John McCain.
Abby Adams on July 16, 2009 at 4:48 PM
What we don’t know is who the other 5 candidates will be. 18 months ago few had even heard of Sarah Palin; mid-2008 The Fred was leading the polls and McCain was trailing in single digits.
I don’t see Palin as viable in 2012. Mitt ver 3.1 and Huckster will almost certainly run… but we won’t have a clue who else will be competing until mid to late 2011.
Hollowpoint on July 16, 2009 at 4:48 PM
There is.
John Boehner.
JetBoy on July 16, 2009 at 4:48 PM
I don’t know… a successful businessman looks pretty frakin’ good right now. Hopefully Huckster will stay out of the race and just put his wieght behind a nominee. As for the Sarahcuda; as long as she is in the scene firing up the voters, candidate or no, the dude abides.
liquidflorian on July 16, 2009 at 4:49 PM
What? *checking internet connection*
darwin on July 16, 2009 at 4:49 PM
Wooo PALIN IS RUNNING
Jetboy, Vote for Palin in 2012!
TimeTraveler on July 16, 2009 at 4:49 PM
Is Sarah palin our Hillary Clinton? Everyone knows her already so most people have already made up their minds about her. Her primary obstical is her high unfavorability numbers meanwhile she is loved by a large segment of the base. And oh yeah, they both pee sitting down.
Zetterson on July 16, 2009 at 4:50 PM
“So let’s chat,” -Hellary.
So much for inevitability.
Akzed on July 16, 2009 at 4:50 PM
No one but Palin for 2012.
jencab on July 16, 2009 at 4:50 PM
Thank you. Polls– even if you like what they say– this far out mean zip.
Pasalubong on July 16, 2009 at 4:50 PM
I’d vote for any of the three vs. Obama. Bet your life on that.
I’m not willing to say “no way” to any GOP candidate. The problem in 2008 was there were too many GOP candidates running and there was no clear front-runner. The GOP let the other side choose our candidate. I pray to God some lessons were learned!
Oink on July 16, 2009 at 4:50 PM
But it didn’t help. They put up McCain! They need to get a clue, and so far I don’t see that happening.
I don’t know if it’s natural, but it sure doesn’t seem right. Our country is burning and we have the firemen trying to figure out who gets to slide down the pole first.
Tuari on July 16, 2009 at 4:50 PM
competence vs celebrity. Not a hard choice.
hanzblinx on July 16, 2009 at 4:51 PM
So 3-1/2 years out, you thought Obama was a finalist? Wow. Good to know that when everyone thought it would come down to Clinton, Edwards and Richardson, you had someone else in mind — since you apparently think one must name names in order to assert that another candidate might end up on the ticket.
Ronnie on July 16, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Ron Paul!!!
/oh
Abby Adams on July 16, 2009 at 4:51 PM
You know what I’m thinkin’
RON PAUL!!!!
Nelsen on July 16, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Mitt has been on TV for weeks, except the past two or three weeks when it came to health care. Hmmmmmm.
Palin 2012!!!!!!
jencab on July 16, 2009 at 4:51 PM
I don’t see why Palin is less viable than anyone else.
ddrintn on July 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Jesus is going to quit and run for president in 2012…
TimeTraveler on July 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM
I have nothing against him or Romney … but can they draw the crowds and raise money like Palin, and are they sufficiently separated from DC politics to still understand who the average American is?
That’s her appeal. She’s not a born and bred DC gasbag.
darwin on July 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Hollowpoint on July 16, 2009 at 4:48 PM
I agree with Hollowpoint. It’s way too early. Plus, if I was going to run, I wouldn’t announce it until 2011. I wouldn’t want the Palin treatment any earlier than need be.
txag92 on July 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Why don’t politicians leak sex tapes to the public to increase populatiry…it works for the celebrities.
CMonster on July 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Haha. pwnd
Abby Adams on July 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Crap, some one beat me to the Ron Paul line by seconds.
Nelsen on July 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Ron Paul can raise more money then both combined in an hour
Nelsen on July 16, 2009 at 4:53 PM
2012!!!!
Nelsen on July 16, 2009 at 4:53 PM
But you did hear of John McCain and he won the nomination. That’s the point; yes, new people will enter the fray, but the way our party nominates candidates, a new person doesn’t stand a chance of winning the nomination on the first try. The GOP nominates a known quantity; someone who has run before on the national level. In 2012, it will be one of these 3.
We are not the Democrats, who are more prone to taking chances with an unknown.
yogi41 on July 16, 2009 at 4:53 PM
Competence? Well, if I start up a business or have one that’s hurting, he’ll be the guy I’ll call. If I’m looking for someone to run a state, it wouldn’t be Mitt I’d call.
ddrintn on July 16, 2009 at 4:53 PM
I don’t know if it’s natural, but it sure doesn’t seem right. Our country is burning and we have the firemen trying to figure out who gets to slide down the pole first.
Tuari on July 16, 2009 at 4:50 PM
I feel that it’s normal after a large loss
the party is trying to orientate itself
blatantblue on July 16, 2009 at 4:54 PM
Of course you don’t.
Hollowpoint on July 16, 2009 at 4:54 PM
First – It’s Gallup. What does Rasmussen say?
Second – Global warming prognostications are more reliable than this poll at this point.
Third – Republican Governors with balanced budgets, low unemployment, and low taxes will look real purdy in 2012.
Fourth – Newt jumped the JAWS shark when he made a global warming commercial with Natzi Peelotzi.
Fifth – After Obama is through with destroying the economy, Larry Craig could win the WH. From the men’s room.
Carolina Kat on July 16, 2009 at 4:54 PM
I don’t see why Palin is less viable than anyone else.
ddrintn on July 16, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Because she is divisive, even within the Republican party.
txag92 on July 16, 2009 at 4:54 PM
^Well said
Nelsen on July 16, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Why is Palin even close, 10 months of media hell with the Rino’s and Libs tearing her apart.
She will get a second glance when all the moderates become dis-enchanted with the ONE.
Amadeus on July 16, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Ron Paul is the political version of Ricky Bobby…
CMonster on July 16, 2009 at 4:55 PM
There’s gotta be someone else
Blatanblue, I’m with you.
MaiDee on July 16, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Care to enlighten?
ddrintn on July 16, 2009 at 4:55 PM
I was not refering to txag92′s post.
I like Palin
Nelsen on July 16, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Be careful, McCain pegged Obama as just a celebrity and look at what happen…
TimeTraveler on July 16, 2009 at 4:55 PM
RON PAUL!!!
Nelsen on July 16, 2009 at 4:56 PM
He did say on Greta recently that Palin “might be the one he gets behind,” but he could have said similar things about Romney. Not sure.
Also not sure he actually has enough influence to be a “kingmaker,” but I acknowledge I’m biased against him.
cs89 on July 16, 2009 at 4:56 PM
I don’t think anyone knew who Obama was this far out last time either, did they?
I’m desperately hoping there will be others in the mix before it’s all over.
Asher on July 16, 2009 at 4:56 PM
I didn’t realize that the neo-Nazi demographic were such generous contributors.
Hollowpoint on July 16, 2009 at 4:56 PM
So are most Repub candidates until they get the nomination. Next.
ddrintn on July 16, 2009 at 4:56 PM
Not in the least. You confuse having the actual balls to stand up against Obama and the media as divisive.
Can you name anything she’s done or said that you view as divisive?
darwin on July 16, 2009 at 4:57 PM
It’s not that it won’t, per se, its just that a lot of people don’t care about it this early. I’m more interested in 2010 right now, in terms of elections, and day-by-day in terms of keeping America America
bluelightbrigade on July 16, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Come on now…you know the drill.
Just by living in the DC area (U of Md and Alexandria, Va) for 6 years, you get a sense of “the game”.
What Palin did in Alaska was extraordinary. She deserved kudos for that. But to simply root for an outsider…someone who “knows us”…and will march into DC and straighten it out…
Not a chance. It’s unfortunate, but “the game” in DC has rules. Changing them…not gonna happen.
JetBoy on July 16, 2009 at 4:57 PM
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