Costwise…why not?

The NK Army is down to a few divisions, if you can call them that, that are actually considered combat effective, and they have had no combined arms training in well over a decade; the NK air force is down to a smidgen of its air fleet, rusted aircraft sitting on hardstands, a few of their best inside underground bunkers, which are observable even from Google Earth…can’t hide addets and aprons; their Navy? Not much for surface warfare craft, far fewer deep ocean capability, if any, and at-sea training, nil.

The NK armed forces are getting the second largest portion of the NK economy, after the 1%, the KWP elites. And their present rations are subsistence, not high caloric, not the sort of thing that builds strong minds and bodies.

And they have “nukes.” OK. Deliverable? Possibly. To where? South Korea and Japan. But we have pretty good indication where they are and where their missile “facilities” if you can call them that are located. There are choke points all across that country…physical and political, and most of all militarily. Kim Chong-il still hangs on to power…and only he can release any weapons…and if he is not able to follow day to day, hour by hour, events, in his present state…who will give the orders to attack or counter-attack, or order the release of their cache of WMD? Not a whole lot of initiative among the military leadership…to do so is to invite being purged.

The populace? Well, 1% are living high on the hog. The other 99% not so much.

Repression? Abundant. Even among the elites.

Power struggle? In motion. The O Kuk-ryol faction is backing the baby Kim [Kim Chong-un] and there is evidence of the oldest son having a following of his own. Some scant evidence of a few among the leadership having cut out their own territory. In between, a lot of that 1% vying for their piece of the pie once Kim Chong-il has shuffled off his mortal coil….which is predicted before the end of Summer, perhaps early Fall.

In other words…what better time to strike and remove the pestilence?

Wait around a year or two, watch a minor purge or two take place, watch baby Kim as Prince Regent being led by O Kuk-ryol, who has had this vision of a modern 20th century combined arms force for North Korea; O Kuk-ryol who has been abroad, and has seen up close what a trained force can do and what an ossified force such as North Korea’s today cannot do.

But, as a cost-benefit thing, hit them when they are at their weakest and in disarray. Or try to weigh the costs when they have reconstituted themselves, and have a new leader and a Prince Regent to defend…with updated training, arms, and new western tactics…and allies from Tehran to Caracas.

Jingoist? Maybe. But Eagleburger has a valid point. it should be examined closely as such.

Compared to voting “present” instead of making hard decisions.

Myself? Perhaps allowing the nation to starve itself into submission would be a better tack. But, personally, I dislike watching innocents by the hundreds of thousands die to prop up a dying regime…and they lost a few million last decade. Would have lost more had it not been for UN and US and other nation’s food aid given freely…most of it going to that 1% and to the military.

If we had a President who was actually in tune with the real world, instead of clinging to an imagined and desired Utopian dream, we could make this work.

coldwarrior on July 14, 2009 at 4:25 PM