CBS: Obama dropped six points in a month

posted at 10:55 am on July 14, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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How bad has Barack Obama’s decline at the polls become?  Even CBS has finally realized it.  Both approval and disapproval numbers have moved sharply over the last month, and in the wrong direction, as voters have discovered that Obama hasn’t a clue about the economy and creating jobs.  You’ll be surprised to discover where CBS thinks he’s losing support, too:

President Obama’s approval rating has fallen six points in the past month, a new CBS News poll finds, amid growing skepticism about his handling of the economy and questions about the impact of the stimulus package.

The president’s current approval rating, which is 57 percent, is still relatively high. But it has fallen 11 points from its peak of 68 percent in April, and has also dropped since last month’s mark of 63 percent. His disapproval rating, meanwhile, has risen from 23 percent in April to 32 percent today.

The decline in support is coming not from Republicans – whose support for the president has actually risen – but from Democrats and independents. While 82 percent of Democrats still approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing, this number is down ten points from last month.

The president’s support among independents has fallen eight points to 50 percent. Only 30 percent of Republicans back Mr. Obama, though that’s up from 23 percent in June.

Among Democrats?  That’s certainly interesting, and one can see how that would affect a CBS poll.  After all, they rigged this poll again to oversample Democrats:

• Republicans: Unweighted – 256, Weighted – 220
• Democrats: Unweighted – 314, Weighted – 332
• Independents: Unweighted – 374, Weighted – 392

They used a weighting formula to artificially create a 12-point difference between Republicans and Democrats, and then report that Barack Obama has a 57% approval rating in the general population.  What a shock!  Even with that, they still note that his support dropped six points from June and eleven points from April.

On the economy, Obama still has a plurality in the CBS weighted poll, but it’s almost a statistical tie at 48%-44%.  Democrats approve, but only 66%-28%, and independents are in a statistical tie at 46%-43%,  Only 21% of respondents think the economy is improving, with 33% saying that it’s getting worse, and 45% saying it’s staying the same.  Neither of those last two numbers help Obama, almost six months into his term as President.

A majority (52%) believe Obama is trying to do too much, up from 38% in April, a trend that has uncomfortable portents as Obama pushes Congress to work on nationalizing health care and rationing energy production.  In fact, Obama is now down to a 49% approval rating in this CBS poll on health care, traditionally a strength for Democrats.  In this weighted poll, Americans are statistically split on whether to reform health care in the midst of a big economic downturn.  Interestingly, they don’t ask that question about cap-and-trade.

Rasmussen, of course, has shown this slippage much more accurately.  In their passion index, Obama has slipped to a -8, and the level of strong support has dropped to 28%, his lowest number yet.

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