Politico: Obama losing independents
posted at 8:41 pm on July 9, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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We’ve already seen this trend coming from the Rasmussen national polls, and now Politico reports that Rasmussen has substantial corroboration of their reports. Independent voters have begun rejecting the big-spending programs of Barack Obama, especially as they show little return on the vast fortunes he’s spent thus far. That means trouble for Obama in swing states that he carried relatively easily just eight months ago:
Obama retains extremely strong support from Democrats, and earlier this year lost much of the Republican support that followed a giddy Inauguration. It is the independents who appear to be currently on the move: Obama dropped 6 percentage points last week from the week before in Gallup’s tracking poll, and Quinnipiac University found a 5-percentage-point drop in approval from independents between early June and early July. Recent state polling shows drops over longer periods.
A Quinnipiac University poll of voters in economically troubled Ohio, released Tuesday, showed Obama’s approval rating slipping 8 points, to below 50 percent, from a poll two months earlier, with a plurality of 48 percent of independent voters disapproving of his job performance. A Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia found Obama’s approval and disapproval numbers effectively tied, with independents disapproving of the president’s job performance, 52 percent to 38 percent.
“That is fairly consistent with all our polling around the country — Obama tends to be really well-liked personally, but he’s starting to lose a majority of the independents,” said Public Policy’s Dean Debnam. Democrats have “had long enough in some voters’ minds that they’re getting blame for nothing happening, and Republicans are scaring them around health care and tax increases.”
Most of this polling took place last week, when the jobless numbers hit. I wonder how much more they’ll tumble after Joe Biden’s admission that the administration miscalculated on the economy this week, and the media reports on the lack of accountability and effectiveness on Porkulus spending? The true-blue Democrats won’t abandon Obama, but the independents in the crosstabs I’ve seen on recent polling have begun moving away rapidly. That trend won’t stop any time soon.
This is also a warning shot to Democrats on the health-care bill and cap-and-trade. The big-spending policies have turned off all but the liberals in the electorate, especially once the actual costs of these programs became clear. The independents will be in full revolt by the end of summer if Democrats press forward, giving Republicans a great opportunity to take back the House in 2010.
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Look, a puppy!
noblejones on July 9, 2009 at 8:43 PM
Hopefully the GOP is watching the numbers on the Independents and realizing that it is the Democrat spending policies that is turning them off.
myrenovations on July 9, 2009 at 8:44 PM
Carter 2. Now what we need is Reagan 2 to replace him.
jgapinoy on July 9, 2009 at 8:44 PM
A heavy dose of bad news for Ogabe today.
Just have to say, “I’m lovin it”
fogw on July 9, 2009 at 8:46 PM
They aren’t.
Fletch54 on July 9, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Look at Ed go. With Allahpundit on vacation, Ed’s just a one-man blogging machine!
Take a break, Ed! You’ve been at this for way more than 8 hours — I know, ’cause I’m unemployed and I’ve been watching you all day long since I have nothing better to do. Promote some Green Room stuff and go put your feet up, man. (Not that we don’t appreciate what you’re doing, but I for one am starting to feel a little bad about your 14-hr days for our clicks and amusement.)
aero on July 9, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Hopefully the
GOPAmerica is watching thenumbers on the Independentsreactions of the European nations and realizing that it is the Democrat spending policies that is turning them off.myrenovations on July 9, 2009 at 8:44 PM
ROCnPhilly on July 9, 2009 at 8:52 PM
It has been a good day.
stepping off of rug..
HoustonRight on July 9, 2009 at 8:52 PM
All this time I though independents were liberal democrats in disguise.
Skandia Recluse on July 9, 2009 at 8:53 PM
Batboy losing independents.
Johnson on July 9, 2009 at 8:54 PM
HAH.
HAH
HAH!!
blatantblue on July 9, 2009 at 8:54 PM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues
Voters Trust GOP More than Democrats on Eight of 10 Key Issues
Rasmussen released their monthly poll on the issues today. Looking better for the GOP.
Mark1971 on July 9, 2009 at 8:54 PM
Similar, but more easily spooked.
ROCnPhilly on July 9, 2009 at 8:54 PM
The best new may be that the Senate has enough Red state Democrats to delay any more insanity until the economy improves- which with O’s policies, will be never
jjshaka on July 9, 2009 at 8:54 PM
And the hits just keep on coming…The lights are coming on.
Ed, you are doing a great job flying solo with AP on vacation.
kingsjester on July 9, 2009 at 8:55 PM
I’ll just have to second that motion….
Rovin on July 9, 2009 at 8:55 PM
What country are you living in………..?
Seven Percent Solution on July 9, 2009 at 8:56 PM
His ego will have to face this reality. The question is if and how he is going to try and turn this around. And will the public buy his schtick which will be loaded with b.s.?
sherry on July 9, 2009 at 8:57 PM
Rats are leaving sinking ship….
catlady on July 9, 2009 at 8:59 PM
Bet he has another tour of the hinterland..
catlady on July 9, 2009 at 9:00 PM
God save the GOP from these ideas. They don’t need to court “Independents” with pandering (as they did in the failed McCain campaign which was DOA from the outset). The GOP needs to stake out positions and let the independents come to them.
highhopes on July 9, 2009 at 9:01 PM
Rats are leaving sinking ship….
catlady on July 9, 2009 at 8:59 PM
When will the MSM join them?
txag92 on July 9, 2009 at 9:01 PM
I don’t know. I think that once he stands in a faux Greek amphitheater and talks about “Hope” and “Change,” the useful idiots will become spellbound, once more. Plus, he’ll be on Mount Rushmore in a year or two and not just a stupid banner.
Star20 on July 9, 2009 at 9:02 PM
Heh, heh, heh, now Barry learns the limits to government by celebrity.
Soon we’ll all be able to refer to him as “the deeply unpopular president.”
obladioblada on July 9, 2009 at 9:02 PM
Can’t the man just eat his waffle?
AUINSC on July 9, 2009 at 9:04 PM
He’s yet to act against a free and open internet, so I can’t consider him an actual enemy of mine…but I wouldn’t be surprised if he took that last step into my single issue territory. Either way, were I sure Romney was getting the republican nomination, I would most certainly vote against Obama in 2012.
ernesto on July 9, 2009 at 9:05 PM
It won’t. He’ll eventually meet God and make it clear that God is meeting Obama and not the other way around. I’m satisified in knowing that God has ultimate veto power.
highhopes on July 9, 2009 at 9:06 PM
Mark Steyn filled in for Rush today and he talked about all the Republicans who had been snookered by our shiny new president. Mentioned several of the usual suspects (Buckley, Frum, Brooks, Parker, etc) but I personally won’t be happy until the they admit that they were wrong. I am not holding my breathe.
Cindy Munford on July 9, 2009 at 9:06 PM
Amen to that. As you said, all that “moderation” and love for independents at the expense of conservatives didn’t save the McCain campaign from near irrelevance for much of the election. Didn’t help that he was easily the worst candidate out of the bunch, but the messed-up primary system helped him out. By the time Ohio’s primary rolled around it was pointless for me to show up.
Wellsy on July 9, 2009 at 9:06 PM
I bet Obamb’s ego is such that he doesnt care. He still has his loving slaves in the MSM covering his rear. Remember cap and tax got through the House. I have seen no coherent signs of Republican opposition yet. Can somene divert sme of that stem cell research money to grow some Republican balls?
catlady on July 9, 2009 at 9:07 PM
BTW, the battle for 2012 primaries has already begun. David Frum couldn’t contain himself let out today that he expects Sarah to clean the clock in the primaries (he shares talking points with Kondracke n Murphy though). He’s also issued a call to Mitt Romney to renounce his conservative wooing of 2008 and come out explicitly as a moderate. The who’s who of conservative commentators are bashing Sarah, in NYT no less. They went nuclear over her resignation thinking it’d finish her off once n for all but her support is unchanged. Keane of CPAC has slammed her.
On our side FR is going absolutely crazy about her today. That site’s owner, JIM, has endorsed this far out. I’ve been tracking this thing pretty closely but the commentariat has come to the sudden horrifying conclusion that she’s still a contender and what more they don’t believe she’s just gonna help conservatives out, they believe she’s in for 2012 and she’s gonna win in the primaries.
The initial skirmishes are over. The war has started. It’s on.
promachus on July 9, 2009 at 9:08 PM
Damn this stupid laptop is killing me!
catlady on July 9, 2009 at 9:10 PM
Suck a fat one demokratz
I’m Kenny powers
blatantblue on July 9, 2009 at 9:11 PM
Yo,Obama ICEBERG DEAD AHEAD!!!
Ah..um..sh#t,I..I..mean..shoot,thats two in ah..row..
dammit…..
canopfor on July 9, 2009 at 9:12 PM
Damn this stupid laptop is killing me!
catlady on July 9, 2009 at 9:10 PM
Welcome to the club girl
blatantblue on July 9, 2009 at 9:15 PM
CNN Headline:
“Obama gaining Independent’s compared to his 1988 numbers”
portlandon on July 9, 2009 at 9:15 PM
Plenty has happened. The Democrats have made a bad situation much much worse.
They should be scared.
Rae on July 9, 2009 at 9:15 PM
Stick around. The lower the filthy liar’s numbers go the more he will seek to control the message. The fairness doctrine will re-emerge along with all other ways to hinder free speech from a dictatorship looking to stay in power. And there is no question that Obama is a dictator. Also, you can be assured that Obama is an enemy of America as we know it. He is evil and he must fail.
highhopes on July 9, 2009 at 9:15 PM
This is great news. Cap n Trade and health care reform took a hit today as well (the latter courtesy of house Democrats). The backlash against the Obama agenda has arrived and is irrevocable. Now it’s rapidly going mainstream as reflected by losing Indie support. Axelrod and Co know what we know–if they continue losing the Indies at this pace, there will be no 2nd Obama term. Hopefully, this will throw a nice monkey wrench into the Socialism game plan and burst that HUGE bubblehead he’s got of invincibility.
RepubChica on July 9, 2009 at 9:16 PM
“That is fairly consistent with all our polling around the country — Obama tends to be really well-liked personally,”
HOW?????
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:16 PM
I’m never letting my girlfriend near obarfy
blatantblue on July 9, 2009 at 9:18 PM
lol…good one.
RepubChica on July 9, 2009 at 9:18 PM
blatantblue on July 9, 2009 at 9:18 PM
You shouldn’t….
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:18 PM
So true. But actually I think his super-sized ego may be to our benefit at this stage in the game. His self-serving interests are all he knows so he will continue to push his agenda through at breakneck speed. The faster and more radical moves he makes are a direct correlation to the drop in polls.
sherry on July 9, 2009 at 9:19 PM
blatantblue on July 9, 2009 at 9:18 PM
You shouldn’t….
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:18 PM
He would try to cop a feel
and I’d feel weird having to ask POTUS for 20 bucks for it
blatantblue on July 9, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Actually they ought to be drummed out of office in utter disgrace (that’s what I am hoping for my DEM Representative) but I’m happy with scared at this point. Keeps the bastards thinking as healthcare and cap&trade come up for discussion.
highhopes on July 9, 2009 at 9:21 PM
And,its only day #169 for Team Hopey!!
canopfor on July 9, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Mitt Romney steps in it
William Amos on July 9, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Too bad the wheels didn’t come off sooner. It may take years to undo this.
Rovin on July 9, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Sorry…. this may date me. But, I remember my dad being in the Elks Club and doing Minstrel Shows. That picture of Obama on this heading looks like something I used to see during one of those shows. Those were the good old days, and it wasn’t a problem with the black people. Thank you Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson.
suzyk on July 9, 2009 at 9:23 PM
He would try to cop a feel
and I’d feel weird having to ask POTUS for 20 bucks for it
blatantblue on July 9, 2009 at 9:21 PM
20 bucks? C’mon…his wife has a $6000 clutch…surely your GF is worth more than $20…
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:24 PM
Cough cough cough… Must restrain myself from suggesting anything. :O
doriangrey on July 9, 2009 at 9:26 PM
There is reason to believe you are correct. Obama’s crowd has been so greedy that I think they have over-reached their popularity. If the filthy liar in the White House had picked just one thing (say socialized medicine) he might have been able to score a win with the cards he was dealt. Instead, he went for it all and it appears that it is coming back to hurt him. Great! Obama must fail.
highhopes on July 9, 2009 at 9:27 PM
One reason his numbers may be sinking so rapidly is that people who were afraid to criticize him before for a variety of reasons(charges of racism, all the media adulation, his Presidency being less than 6 months in, etc.) are no longer hesitant to pile on the guy now that others are doing so.
It’s like all the people at the dance who refuse to go out on the dance floor until that first couple does. Now the floodgates are open and unless the economy turns around, his numbers will never recover.
Doughboy on July 9, 2009 at 9:28 PM
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:16 PM
I will never understand that either. He has always had the extreme opposite effect on me.
bazil9 on July 9, 2009 at 9:28 PM
Willard likes to push the arrow all the way through, so it doesn’t get infected. =)
portlandon on July 9, 2009 at 9:28 PM
I think the most-telling day for the media and the talking heads will be the day after the 2010 elections. If the GOP is successful, it will be interesting to see if they can still live in denial and continue to tow the line for a president who just got neutered, especially if there are huge GOP wins around the country.
sherry on July 9, 2009 at 9:29 PM
Independents are usually the ones who vote for who they think is the better guy. They vote for the ’stronger’ candidate.
They voted for Bush in 2k4 because Kerry looked pretty weak.
They voted for Obama over McCain because it was a race between 2 empty suits, and the Blue suit was handing out 20 dollar bills.
They voted for Reagan over Carter because Carter royally screwed up and Reagan looked strong because he had PRINCIPLES and LIVED BY THEM.
[Principles, mind you, that everyone could agree with... Unless you're a commie. This is a fact that the GOP establishment seems to always overlook]
The same could be said for Nixon’s election over LBJ (but we also have McArthy to thank for that).
We could see the same in 2012 but I’m not sure. That hinges on whether we get a Reagan versus some empty suit.
Cause if it goes to a match between 2 empty suits, the one handing out 20 dollar bills wins every time.
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 9:30 PM
bazil9 on July 9, 2009 at 9:28 PM
BB??? Pfft…she is so slumming….
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:30 PM
The Average American’s B.S. level has been strained beyond it’s maximum level. It’s one thing to bpromise rainbows and unicorns, it’s quite another thing to deliver them. People have seen that Stimulus I has not done anything. And now these thieves are talking about another. They’ve seen Obama deliver GM into the hands of the union and wipe out Chrysler. Place all that with cap and tax and Government-run Hell-Care and Americans are beginning to realize what’s happening. Instead of helping Americans toward greater prosperity, Obama’s actions have been driving us closer to becoming a third world nation. It is very evident through the news today that Congress is beginning to distance itself because they know 2010 is just around the corner. And to paraphrase Mel Brooks, “They’ve got to protect their phoney boloney jobs.”
kingsjester on July 9, 2009 at 9:31 PM
Typical idiot Independents. They have no core values so they vote based on which way the wind blows.I almost hate them as much as liberals. At least with a liberal you know you’re dealing with scum up front.
Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:32 PM
That still looks like a HUGE If.
Never underestimate the GOP’s ability to screw things up in elections. A flaw that (sadly) the DNC lacks.
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 9:32 PM
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:30 PM
?
bazil9 on July 9, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Tru dat…
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:33 PM
I don’t care about the 2012 Presidential elections and neither should any other American who cares about this nation.
The focus at this point needs to be the 2010 mid-term elections and getting a check to the filthy liar in the Congress by getting rid of evil corrupt whores like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. Failing regaining the House and Senate, the numbers need to make it harder for these traitors to rubber stamp the edicts from the dictator in the White House.
2012 but only after 2010! The filthy liar may not even allow elections in 2012 if he is allowed to continue along this path of unquestioned socialism.
highhopes on July 9, 2009 at 9:34 PM
bazil9 on July 9, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Never mind…
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:34 PM
lol..it did date you, but me too
Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:34 PM
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/congressman_demands_to_know_who
Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:36 PM
You hit the nail on the head my friend. 2012 is useless even if we elect a conservative president if we failed in 2010 to elect a conservative congress.
Congress controls the budgets and the spending bills. I don’t care if we lose 2012 so long as we have a congress in 2010 that can reign in all the crazy crap that Obama thinks of. I dare say that control of the House and Senate is more crucial than control of the executive branch.
But then I forget who picks the Supreme Court Justices.
That and I realize 2010 is NEXT YEAR.
The time to hit the pavement is NOW folks. Melt the phone lines to your congressmen and senators. Find a good man (or woman) to replace the bum in congress representing you, and work your tail off to see that that bum gets replaced.
And in the rare case of you being represented by a stalwart for the constitution already (and you are the privileged few!), work your tail off to make sure he (or she) stays in office.
Never give up, never say die!
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 9:42 PM
Ed you are doing a great job today. Now might be a good time to change the locks on the doors so Allah can’t come back.
Just kidding.
Geochelone on July 9, 2009 at 9:42 PM
And one more thing:
Not a dime to the GOP and the NRSC. Donate to your man (or woman) directly. Tell the GOP to shape up or pound sand.
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 9:43 PM
You’re right, still a big IF, but the “righteous wind” could help push them along. If the backlash momentum continues, it will help but is certainly not enough to get the overhaul we need.
sherry on July 9, 2009 at 9:44 PM
ooooohhhh lawdy laawdd!
ernesto on July 9, 2009 at 9:47 PM
Standing O (not as in Obama). Well said!
highhopes on July 9, 2009 at 9:50 PM
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/in_the_know_should_the_government
Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:51 PM
Counting on a ‘Backlash Momentum’ has been for too long a crutch of GOP election strategy. We need to run from a position of strength, not so much a position of the enemy’s weakness.
(See Reagan for example, though that could be a case of running on both… viable tactic I think.)
Don’t underestimate the power of Acorn to muck up election results. And don’t underestimate the brazen attempts of the Democrats to rig elections (or as Hugh Hewitt says: If it’s not close they can’t cheat).
And lastly: don’t underestimate the ability of the Mainstream media to polish a turd until it shines.
We need candidates who can take all of these factors into account. They need to be true to the principles of Liberty (Limited Government being the prime prerequisite) and they need to be proud of it!
And even then they’ll need our help! [see my above posts]
Only then can we defeat these guys solidly despite the above obstacles!
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 9:51 PM
LMAO@ACE calling Obama the “Pedodent” for looking at underage ass.
I refuse to thank Independents…they are the reason we’re in this mess. I will thank them in 2010 if they wake up and smell the coffee.
SouthernGent on July 9, 2009 at 9:54 PM
Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:51 PM
heh
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:54 PM
I’m only saying what needed to be said… but thanks anyway.
I can’t stress the fact that 2010 is next year enough.
I also can’t stress the fact not to trust the GOP until they shape up enough either.
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 9:54 PM
You did’t like??..LOL
Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:55 PM
Hannity was showing the picture to his panel a moment ago and KP was trying to deny Barry was looking at that girl’s rear but she just started laughing. Priceless.
kingsjester on July 9, 2009 at 9:56 PM
bazil9 on July 9, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Seriously, don’t sweat it…i misread your post…
I have never understood how Obama could be “liked” by anyone…
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:58 PM
Ok,try this one:
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/obama_drastically_scales_back
Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 10:01 PM
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 9:58 PM
lol, no worries. I was wondering if I had ticked you off for some reason ..or if you were joking with me. I thought we were cool!
bazil9 on July 9, 2009 at 10:02 PM
I agree with you on running from a position of strength. But don’t forget that the country has seen the dark side. And from what the polls indicate, they aren’t that happy with it. The message from the GOP should be to stress the principles that actually work for this country but tossing in a little personalization of the Dems (including Obama) who are responsible for the country at this stage and ridiculing the policies, bills and packages that he has foisted on us wouldn’t be such a bad thing either. If I was sitting in the middle and was disgusted with the out of control spending, I would want to hear a candidate tell me exactly how he/she is going to fix it, not with platitudes but with specifics.
sherry on July 9, 2009 at 10:02 PM
yawn
Greenhelmet on July 9, 2009 at 10:03 PM
we are def cool!!!!!
you should be on FB…
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 10:03 PM
Oh no he din’t….he can’t have my eggs and bakey…
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 10:05 PM
1290 days until The One leaves office!!!
whatzit2u on July 9, 2009 at 10:06 PM
I have watched so many of them I am forgetting which one to respond to. My favorite character is the black lady on the panel and when she says “I love the money fire”. Those actors do a great job.
sherry on July 9, 2009 at 10:06 PM
I wouldn’t get my hopes up for 2010…it doesn’t matter who votes, what matters is who COUNTS the votes…or stuffs the ballot boxes…(ACORN)
right4life on July 9, 2009 at 10:07 PM
Was it Larry King’s son who wished he were black ’cause it’s cool to be black now?
Never underestimate rap ‘music’ and pop culture on drooling idiots.
Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 10:07 PM
Pretty soon ole Ax & Rahm will be like the band on the Titanic! HEE HEE!!! I’m so excited!
JAM on July 9, 2009 at 10:08 PM
Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 10:07 PM
UGH…tru dat….
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 10:09 PM
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 10:03 PM
If I create an account, I will def add ya!
and Hornet for my comic relief.
bazil9 on July 9, 2009 at 10:09 PM
Yeah…Hornet is great…
ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 10:10 PM
It’s getting so bad the compliant press can’t even protect their messiah anymore. I heard today Ohio jobless rate is now just over 10%. Kalifornia is worse. It’s nothing to be gleeful about, and unless people took the time to inform themselves via alternative news sources, they were most likely duped.
The good news? Liberal ideals and policies are going over like a fart in church in this nation.
Hog Wild on July 9, 2009 at 10:11 PM
On this point I agree with you 100 percent. Especially this bit:
Running on principles works both ways. Pointing out how sticking to those principles would work while at the same time, pointing out how going against those principles brings disaster (and in this case, bringing up the previous years as evidence thereof*). Personalization is a moot point: you always personalize when presenting a message, but it’s always a good strategy.
Specifics would also be very important. None of this ‘Jobs saved’ BS. In particular, I liked the Charts put out by the Bush team in 2000 on the tax cut plan he had. That was specific (but the media never pointed to it). If a candidate is to be specific, he (or she) will have to put up solid numbers (with sources, hopefully included as footnotes) somewhere and be quick (and often) at pointing to them.
*Just a random thought: History is an excellent teacher, but it doesn’t always speak your language and oft needs to be translated or brought to memory.
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 10:12 PM
That is scary…
Acorn will also be in charge of the 2010 census…
And they won’t be fighting for the rights of ‘imaginary’ people either.
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 10:14 PM
Don’t Celebrate until Nov 3 2010…
And I wouldn’t celebrate that long either… cause 2012 will only be knocking on our door after that.
So get to work already!
Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 10:17 PM
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