Politico: Obama losing independents

posted at 8:41 pm on July 9, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

We’ve already seen this trend coming from the Rasmussen national polls, and now Politico reports that Rasmussen has substantial corroboration of their reports.  Independent voters have begun rejecting the big-spending programs of Barack Obama, especially as they show little return on the vast fortunes he’s spent thus far.  That means trouble for Obama in swing states that he carried relatively easily just eight months ago:

Obama retains extremely strong support from Democrats, and earlier this year lost much of the Republican support that followed a giddy Inauguration. It is the independents who appear to be currently on the move: Obama dropped 6 percentage points last week from the week before in Gallup’s tracking poll, and Quinnipiac University found a 5-percentage-point drop in approval from independents between early June and early July. Recent state polling shows drops over longer periods.

A Quinnipiac University poll of voters in economically troubled Ohio, released Tuesday, showed Obama’s approval rating slipping 8 points, to below 50 percent, from a poll two months earlier, with a plurality of 48 percent of independent voters disapproving of his job performance. A Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia found Obama’s approval and disapproval numbers effectively tied, with independents disapproving of the president’s job performance, 52 percent to 38 percent.

“That is fairly consistent with all our polling around the country — Obama tends to be really well-liked personally, but he’s starting to lose a majority of the independents,” said Public Policy’s Dean Debnam. Democrats have “had long enough in some voters’ minds that they’re getting blame for nothing happening, and Republicans are scaring them around health care and tax increases.”

Most of this polling took place last week, when the jobless numbers hit.  I wonder how much more they’ll tumble after Joe Biden’s admission that the administration miscalculated on the economy this week, and the media reports on the lack of accountability and effectiveness on Porkulus spending?  The true-blue Democrats won’t abandon Obama, but the independents in the crosstabs I’ve seen on recent polling have begun moving away rapidly.  That trend won’t stop any time soon.

This is also a warning shot to Democrats on the health-care bill and cap-and-trade.  The big-spending policies have turned off all but the liberals in the electorate, especially once the actual costs of these programs became clear.  The independents will be in full revolt by the end of summer if Democrats press forward, giving Republicans a great opportunity to take back the House in 2010.


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Can anyone contact Scott Rasmussen and ask him to classify the people he polls by whether or not they pay income taxes? I am fairly confident that most of the people that pay taxes are opposed to the Dems policies and those that receive more from government then they contribute support Dem policies.
I think it’s an important distinction to document that those supporting big government don’t actually have to pay for it.

DerKrieger on July 9, 2009 at 10:18 PM

Unfortunately for neocons, the election is 3.5 years away. Plenty of time for more Republican scandals and stupidity. Sorry guys.

dcwvu on July 9, 2009 at 10:22 PM

The Democrats will just blame Bush. Earlier today on Fox I saw Stuart Varney with Bob Beckel and Beckel actually started yammering about Halliburton. What an idiot. What a desperate idiot.

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:23 PM

So get to work already!

Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 10:17 PM

I think the Republicans have other ideas.
Or maybe none at all.
Today I received three separate solicitations from the RNC in the mail.
I’ve shredded two of them and in the third, placed a photocopy of a check to Sarahpac.and a small note to remove my name from their mailing list saying just how disgruntled I am.

I haven’t been gruntled in over a year now!

Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 10:25 PM

dcwu:

You are such a joke. Tell you what, maybe there will be a few more Democratic Governors indicted or caught with hookers or whatever.

Do you really think that people get all upset about a Republican Governor having a girlfriend after years of Bill Clinton the Groper in Chief?

And then of course there are thieves, liars and crooks like Murtha, Dodd, Rangel, Conyers, Jefferson just to mention a few.

No, my dear, when it comes to scandal Republicans are amateurs compared to their Democratic counterparts.

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:26 PM

dcwvu on July 9, 2009 at 10:22 PM

Now you’re on this thread.

You never answered any of the comments or questions directed at you earlier on the Health Care Reform thread.

Troll.

massrighty on July 9, 2009 at 10:27 PM

Plenty of time for more RepublicanDemocrat scandals and stupidity. Sorry guystrolls.

dcwvu on July 9, 2009 at 10:22 PM

FIFY

massrighty on July 9, 2009 at 10:29 PM

Lancerman:

I understand how you feel, but Sarah Palin is a Republican. She was on the GOP ticket a few months ago. I don’t think she would want people to abandon the Republicans and hand more power to the likes of Obama. Seems a bit counterproductive to me.

And btw, a lot of Republicans have refused to vote for any of Obama’s agenda. I have actually been surprised at how unified they have been.

There might be a handful of Republicans crossing the aisle here and there, but overwhelmingly they have voted NO on Obama’s plans.

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:29 PM

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:29 PM

Somehow I think that she set up Sarahpac not only to help herself, but also to help out like-minded Republicans.
I’d hate to think some of my cash is going to the likes of Lindsay Grahamnesty or even John Wayne McCain.
Certainly Willard’s gun-grabbin’ a$$ will receive no assistance from her.
You never know, though.
Politics makes for strange bedfellows.
Who’da thunk a year ago that I’d be wishing HRC was the POTUS!

Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 10:36 PM

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:55 PM

Already got a guilty conscience. Might as well have the money, too. Good day, now.

ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 10:38 PM

But he is gaining big time with the dependents!!

bayview on July 9, 2009 at 10:38 PM

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 9:55 PM

Already got a guilty conscience. Might as well have the money, too. Good day, now.

ladyingray on July 9, 2009 at 10:38 PM

I’m what you might call
the Founder of the Feast.

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 10:44 PM

This is what I call “Christmas in July”.

venividivici on July 9, 2009 at 10:47 PM

Lanceman:

John McCain gave Sarah Palin a place on the ticket. He made her his VP, apparently he had that much faith in her. He is the reason millions of Americans know who she is. He is not responsible for some anonymous staffers who are trying to excuse their own job performance. In fact, I have seen some people who do not much like Sarah, claim that picking her shows bad judgment on his part. I don’t agree with that. I like and respect Sarah Palin, but I also respect McCain and I am glad he took a chance on her.

And whatever else you can say about Graham, he has not supported the vast majority of Obama’s plan.

I think Sarah set that up to help herself, but also to help Republicans win. I don’t think she would want to do anything to diminish their chances, after all that only helps Obama.

so why bite off your nose to spite your face?

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:48 PM

Voters Trust GOP More than Democrats on Eight of 10 Key Issues

I respectfully disagree. I’m one of the “Independents” both parties are trying to court. Over most of my lifetime (I’m 50+), I’ve seen a lack of principled stance from either party. In my mind, both seem more hell-bent on perpetuating party and career, than standing up for our Constitution.

Frankly, I’m more inclined to support CONSERVATIVE candidates on 10 of 10 issues, than blindly following either party. If a particular candidate supports the cause of individual liberty, national security, reduced government, taxes, amnesty and entitlements, I’m all in.

And by the way, I was one of the proud Americans at the Tea Party protests. Give me something to cheer about GOP, and I’ll vote for you. (And sorry McCain, but you’re not even on my radar. Wuss.)

realitycheck on July 9, 2009 at 10:52 PM

realitycheck:

I was a Democrat a long time ago and then an Independent, but in recent years I have voted Republican.

This is politics, all of these people are about winning elections. That is the point to running.

As for conservatives, you will find more of them in the GOP than you will in Obama’s party.

And whatever else McCain is, he is not a wuss. You might think he is not conservative enough or whatever, but McCain has proven that he has courage. He was also more of a fiscal conservative than most of the people running. He always has been. There might be other things like McCain Feingold or whatever to fault him on, but over the years he did tend to vote no on a lot of spending measures that other Republicans supported.

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:58 PM

Today I received three separate solicitations from the RNC in the mail.
I’ve shredded two of them and in the third, placed a photocopy of a check to Sarahpac.and a small note to remove my name from their mailing list saying just how disgruntled I am.

I haven’t been gruntled in over a year now!

Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 10:25 PM

If every conservative did what you did, we’d be licking our chops for 2010 instead of hoping it goes well.

Then again if every conservative did what you did earlier the GOP might not be in shambles.

YOU my friend, are a good example!

And my concluding thought for the day:

If Waterloo was a major defeat, it was also a major victory. That battle should have taught us that even a man who conquered much of Europe can be defeated. For every Napoleon, there is a Wellington who goes down in history as an epic winner.

Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 10:59 PM

I’ve always despised Barack Obama.

I must be some kind of trend-setter!

gridlock2 on July 9, 2009 at 10:59 PM

What scares me is what Dick Morris said a few months ago:

That Obama would sacrifice a second term to carry out his real agenda now.

If he thinks he’ll eventually lose part or all of Congress, he might prefer to go home and live like a king on the lecture / community organizing circuit. Some might say that in a second term that might be split w/ Republicans in Congress would be when he would work on all of his supposedly bipartisan goals, but come on, who believes that?

thebadoutlaw on July 9, 2009 at 11:02 PM

Today I received three separate solicitations from the RNC in the mail.
I’ve shredded two of them and in the third, placed a photocopy of a check to Sarahpac.and a small note to remove my name from their mailing list saying just how disgruntled I am.

I haven’t been gruntled in over a year now!

Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 10:25 PM

If every conservative did what you did, we’d be licking our chops for 2010 instead of hoping it goes well.

Then again if every conservative did what you did earlier the GOP might not be in shambles.

YOU my friend, are a good example!

How is that? If every conservative did that, the Democrats would run virtually unopposed.

It is late and time for bed, so I will stop lecturing everyone, but…I can remember back in 2006 there were some conservatives who refused to support the GOP and the only message they sent was Reid and Pelosi. And then in 2008, there were people who sat it out and the message they helped send was Obama. And now a lot of these same people are complaining about all of the above. The idea apparently is that the Republicans would not have been much better. Well whatever, but if all people to is just refuse to support the party running against the Democrats….then the Democrats will win. It is that simple. And I do not understand how people can talk about how awful Obama is and yet not support his opposition. That is not principles, that is just dumb.

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 11:08 PM

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:48 PM

I do thank John McCain for giving us Sarah.
And I thank him for his military service to the country.
That said, it is possible that he chose her for reasons other than she would be the best running mate (for him).
Add to that the fact that he does little if anything to defend her or call out his former staffers.
I just would like that he, Grahamnesty and the rest of the RINOs take early retirement.

Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 11:09 PM

Wait a sec!
Are you the good terry or the bad one?

Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 11:13 PM

Unfortunately for neocons, the election is 3.5 years away. Plenty of time for more Republican scandals and stupidity. Sorry guys.

dcwvu on July 9, 2009 at 10:22 PM

Weak. You’re counting on GOP scandals to save your guy’s bacon? You know how hilarious that sounds?

ddrintn on July 9, 2009 at 11:22 PM

The big-spending policies have turned off all but the liberals in the electorate, especially once the actual costs of these programs became clear.

Which is about, what, 20-something percent? Massive mandate for change we can believe in! LOL

ddrintn on July 9, 2009 at 11:28 PM

I am an Independent he never had me :)

Dr Evil on July 9, 2009 at 11:37 PM

If Waterloo was a major defeat, it was also a major victory. That battle should have taught us that even a man who conquered much of Europe can be defeated. For every Napoleon, there is a Wellington who goes down in history as an epic winner.

Chaz706 on July 9, 2009 at 10:59 PM

Absolutely right, and with that victory your name will be forever linked with a beef dish.

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 11:39 PM

I was a Democrat a long time ago and then an Independent, but in recent years I have voted Republican.
This is politics, all of these people are about winning elections. That is the point to running.
As for conservatives, you will find more of them in the GOP than you will in Obama’s party.

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:58 PM

Terrye, we have some common ground. Early on, I voted mostly Republican, due to an upbringing supporting those values, even though I felt at odds with some issues that Republicans championed. Unlike most of my family, I would occasionaly vote for Democrat candidates who, I believed, were the best hope for the continued prosperity and welfare of my country and community. My gradual shift to candidates who actually represent my Conservative values became complete after the last election. I voted for McCain, and felt dirty after doing so.

I’m no longer willing to compromise. Compromise, in politics, means the downfall of values. The Left fully understands the concept of Incremental Victory. They know that you don’t have to win the whole prize at once. Total victory is achieved by patience and perseverance. Speak softly and carry a small stick, and you’ll win over the masses with big sticks every time. (Or create a “CRISIS”, and you can crush massive individual liberty in a single pen-stroke.)

Regarding your comment that, this is politics, and the whole point is to win elections, I again cannot concede your point.

The primary duty of public service is to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States of America. Anyone with any objective otherwise, shouldn’t even be considered for public office.

After all, don’t all of these self-promoting clowns take that oath?

Or are those just “words”.

realitycheck on July 9, 2009 at 11:56 PM

Unfortunately for neocons, the election is 3.5 years away. Plenty of time for more Republican scandals and stupidity. Sorry guys.

dcwvu on July 9, 2009 at 10:22 PM

By the way, just curious: how many points did Mark Sanford gain for Obama?

ddrintn on July 9, 2009 at 11:59 PM

This is politics, all of these people are about winning elections.

Terrye on July 9, 2009 at 10:58 PM

which is the whole reason many of us are disgusted with the two parties we now have.

To them its all about power and winning, NOT ABOUT PHILOSOPHY, and not about serving US, the people.

When you can no longer tell the difference in government growth of size, or power, between the Dems or the Repubs,

When Repubs WILL cross the line and vote for things like the stimulus, or Cap and Trade… then truly, what is the difference and why vote them into power?

Romeo13 on July 10, 2009 at 12:07 AM

Politico: Obama losing independents

Hemorrhaging is more like it. And I like it.

Geronimo on July 10, 2009 at 12:08 AM

Do we really need a hundred polls to confirm the obvious? Of course Democrats and staying with him for the most part while Independents are taking off the white guilt glasses after a year.

Speedwagon82 on July 10, 2009 at 12:11 AM

gridlock2 on July 9, 2009 at 10:59 PM

I hated him first.

Geochelone on July 10, 2009 at 12:16 AM

Bottom line: electoral change is desperately needed… including (especially) in the GOP. Get involved now (the Tea Party groups are a good vehicle for the moment); look at records, not words and smiles; recruit and support conservative replacements for RINOs, and ACT!

Good Lord! Our forefathers faced musketball and cannonfire to form this country and we’re too lazy to get off our couches to use the electoral process to prevent it being brankrupted out of existence?? Don’t gripe; DO!

michaelo on July 10, 2009 at 12:28 AM

The GOP in the 2000′s spent like a Bel Air girl with her daddy’s credit card. It will not get any better if the GOP win in 2010 or 2012. It will be the status quo. It will be fun, however, jumping on and destroying them with every fumble and faux paus. I kinda miss doing that. Kinda.

dcwvu on July 10, 2009 at 12:33 AM

I didn’t bookmark the pissed of ceiling fan guy earlier this afternoon. Would someone be kind enough to pride the YouTube link?

toliver on July 10, 2009 at 12:35 AM

I meant to type “provide”.

toliver on July 10, 2009 at 12:35 AM

ddrintn on July 9, 2009 at 11:22

About as crazy as Mark Foley’s penchant for young boys that sent us over the top in 2006. The GOP has a crafty way of cannibalizing itself at the last minute.

dcwvu on July 10, 2009 at 12:36 AM

But he is gaining big time with the dependents!!

bayview on July 9, 2009 at 10:38 PM

LOL

They had to figure that there would be something like this down the pike, but I believe they figured it would only be after they had installed Commie Programs X, Y and Z. They probably also felt that the job numbers wouldn’t be quite so negative by now, thus buying them more time.

I can only imagine they’re working on Plan B right about now.

Dr. ZhivBlago on July 10, 2009 at 1:22 AM

I really want to get excited about this, but the GOP is giving me no hope they are a conservative party any more. They so want carbon taxes, comprehensive Illegal immigration and other Dem lite crap. They want to neuter the pro-life, pro-God crowd. They just want a smaller, big liberal government than the Dems do.

I don’t think we can trust them anymore than the Dems. The GOP is more Collins/Snow than it is Demint/Jindal. When they had power for 6 years they did nothing to roll back the size and scope of government and in fact did just the opposite they grew the size of the federal government. If the GOP wont reduce the size of government we need to think about another way to get that done, or the Dems will eventually drag us into socialism.

Even though 40% of this nations citizens would like to see the Federal government reduced in size and scope; we don’t see the GOP advancing that agenda, yet the Libs when they get in power they immediately start to grow the size of the government when they only have 21% support for their wacky ideas.
The GOP even allows them to control the dialog when they are out of power. What is the purpose of the GOP again? Someone help me, please. I’m begging you.

Kjeil on July 10, 2009 at 1:24 AM

Unfortunately for neocons, the election is 3.5 years away. Plenty of time for more Republican scandals and stupidity. Sorry guys.

dcwvu

2010 midterm election says “Hi”. That’s plenty of time for the voting public to figure out that Joe the plumber was right, and see what an absolute freakin’ joke the wealth stealing, America-hating Democrat party is.

xblade on July 10, 2009 at 3:41 AM

If Independents are so smart and smug, being above party politics, why did they hitch themselves to Obama, and not see him for the loser he is?

Jeff from WI on July 10, 2009 at 5:49 AM

About as crazy as Mark Foley’s penchant for young boys that sent us over the top in 2006. The GOP has a crafty way of cannibalizing itself at the last minute.

dcwvu on July 10, 2009 at 12:36 AM

Three words for you…

Barney Frank Bordello

standards, and double standards.

sven10077 on July 10, 2009 at 7:14 AM

Unfortunately for neocons, the election is 3.5 years away. Plenty of time for more Republican scandals and stupidity. Sorry guys.

dcwvu on July 9, 2009 at 10:22 PM
Weak. You’re counting on GOP scandals to save your guy’s bacon? You know how hilarious that sounds?

ddrintn on July 9, 2009 at 11:22 PM

Heh, kind of hard to have positive hope for Obama or the Democrats these days. Even for a lefty troll.

Even so the point is somewhat valid, 1 Republican scandal is worth 10 Democrat scandals due to the media blackout. The way things are going though not even negative hope will be enough for the Dems, Even though it is all they have left.

jarodea on July 10, 2009 at 7:40 AM

I love the “Flim-Flam Man” photo for this column. Good to know that the independents – whoever the hell they are – have woken from their comas to discover this phony traveling salesman is in the barn with their daughter, milking the cows.

Get the shotgun, Ma!

Jaibones on July 10, 2009 at 8:14 AM

The problem w/ Indies is that they are inherently unreliable as voters, but still easily swayed.

That many have awaken from their star-studded stupor is not surprising, but lets not be too hasty in saying that somehow they are evolving into more enlightened citizens.

They will vote on their feelings again.

bluelightbrigade on July 10, 2009 at 8:27 AM

I wonder how much more they’ll tumble after Joe Biden’s admission that the administration miscalculated on the economy this week, and the media reports on the lack of accountability and effectiveness on Porkulus spending?

The vast majority of voters will never hear about either of these.

MarkTheGreat on July 10, 2009 at 8:35 AM

Unfortunately for neocons, the election is 3.5 years away. Plenty of time for more Republican scandals and stupidity. Sorry guys.

dcwvu on July 9, 2009 at 10:22 PM

Murtha, Jefferson?

right2bright on July 10, 2009 at 9:30 AM

Absolutely right, and with that victory your name will be forever linked with a beef dish.

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 11:39 PM

Or a dessert…

right2bright on July 10, 2009 at 9:32 AM

The vast majority of voters will never hear about either of these.

MarkTheGreat on July 10, 2009 at 8:35 AM

Picture the headlines; “Biden displays uncanny understanding of current economic situation” or “VP Discusses Role of New Stimulus in Economic Recovery”.

They just write themselves (gotta love the Anchoress).

Laura in Maryland on July 10, 2009 at 9:35 AM

bluelightbrigade on July 10, 2009 at 8:27 AM

Kind of resent that as I am a registered independent-or, undeclared as it is called in NH. I’ve posted this several times before but….you may not know that in states with open primaries(and there are several though I do not know how many)it is quite common to register as an independent. Most who do, however, are very ‘dependable’ in their voting and polling preferences whether these be left or right and not prone to vacillation. Certainly there must be a better word designation than ‘independent’. Actually NH’s undeclared is a better name(though not by much). Undeclared voters in the above category are included in polls and stats willy nilly and, I suspect, in large enough numbers to skew these polls.

jeanie on July 10, 2009 at 9:57 AM

Obama is so smoooooth as he sticks the knife in America’s back. What % of the American population is Black? I wonder if any significant number of Blacks are having any second thoughts? I would expect the Blacks and left wing wackos will be the last to jump ship.

Some fools like socialism, and don’t like to have to go to work. Self reliance vs reliance on others hard work and achievement. Totally un-American and disgusting.

saiga on July 10, 2009 at 10:16 AM

I am an Independent he never had me :)

Dr Evil on July 9, 2009 at 11:37 PM

Same here. Better question for other “Indpendents” is how they lean, liberal or conservative. If the latter, there’s no way they (we) voted for Obama in the first place despite McCain’s shortcomings … we saw Obama’s socialist, America-is-the-problem schtick light years away.

Independent but fiscally, constitutionally, and national defense (-ivly ?) conservative.

Far more so than most of the Republicans in Washington of late. Let’s hope they’ve learned.

.02 ease up on some of the stringent social issues — particularly religion — and seize those aforementioned. There’s your big tent.

shades_of_gasden on July 10, 2009 at 10:24 AM

Who’da thunk a year ago that I’d be wishing HRC was the POTUS!

Lanceman on July 9, 2009 at 10:36 PM

heh…. I actually voted for Barack Obama in the primary in 2008 (I’m still registered as a Democrat, it’s a relic from when I was much younger and quite stupid ill-informed, and I just never changed my voter registration). I was just trying to shake things up… I really thought Hillary was a shoe-in, and Obama had no chance. It was kind of a reverse “Operation Chaos,” months before Rush Limbaugh had the idea.

Little did I know…..

He still didn’t win my state, so don’t flame me too badly for that.

UltimateBob on July 10, 2009 at 11:39 AM

Independedents will of course see the folly in re-electing Obama in 2012. However, if the Republicans can’t muster up a quality candidate, they’ll vote for the status quo. Honestly, the GOP has no real candidates for the Independents to embrace. Before 2012 comes 2010 and we will get a clear picture of Independents’ opinion about the GOP’s progress since 2008. It is not looking great so far…

mperek on July 10, 2009 at 2:14 PM

Hey dcwvu… hows it going little far leftist, goose-stepping, Obamabot, welfare tit-sucking troll?

Its pretty obvious that you know the Republicans are going to sweep the elections in 2010, take back the House in huge numbers and put Obummertard in his place hahaha…And in 2012 all you liberal welfare trolls better get ready for President Palin muhahahaha…

Dolt

Jackson1227 on July 10, 2009 at 2:15 PM

ddrintn on July 9, 2009 at 11:22
About as crazy as Mark Foley’s penchant for young boys that sent us over the top in 2006. The GOP has a crafty way of cannibalizing itself at the last minute.

dcwvu on July 10, 2009 at 12:36 AM

Big difference. The GOP ran Congress then. Anyway, that sort of thing is old news. You can only use such “magic bullets” so many times without having to, you, know,actually GOVERN WELL.

ddrintn on July 10, 2009 at 4:42 PM

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