Confidence in Obama, economy still dropping

posted at 4:41 pm on July 8, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday, I noted that the Rasmussen poll with a Barack Obama “passion index” of -3 still had yet to fully poll after last week’s unemployment figures were published.  Today’s rolling approval index is the first to have all of its data taken after the announcement that joblessness continues to increase, and the passion index has hit its lowest level yet.  Obama’s approval has come close to statistical parity, too:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 32% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of –5.

The number who strongly disapprove inched up another point to the highest level measured to date and the overall Approval Index is at the lowest level yet for Obama (see trends).

In the wake of last week’s disappointing report on job loss, consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level in two months. The Rasmussen Investor Index shows investor confidence falling to the lowest level in three months. The number of investors who say the economy is getting worse jumped from 43% before the jobs report to 51% today.

Barack Obama still has a 52% approval rating, but his overall disapproval rating has hit 48%.  There are no more undecideds at the moment.  That four-point range is just outside of the three-point margin of error, although to be accurate, that MOE applies to both numbers individually, which would make the overall MOE six points.  That would already put Obama in a dead heat on approval, but even with the more modest application, he’s heading there quickly.

Rasmussen is not the only pollster noticing that consumers have lost confidence in this administration’s ability to deal with the economy.  ABC says that consumer confidence has hit a new low for the past 24 years and looks as though it will continue dropping, corroborating Rasmussen (via Yid with Lid):

Consumer confidence is within striking distance of its worst in weekly polls since late 1985 for the third straight week.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -52 on its scale of +100 to -100, 2 points from the lowest on Jan. 25. The index has spent the last three weeks below -50, territory it’s seen only 14 times in over 1,220 weeks of polls, with eight of those coming this year alone.

Positive ratings of the buying climate dropped this week, down 4 points to 22 percent, matching the largest one-week drop ever. In 23 years of weekly polls it’s fallen this far this fast only eight other times. The other two components of the index – ratings of the economy and personal finances – held near their historic lows.

Continued weakness in the job market isn’t helping confidence. The unemployment rate increased in June to 9.5 percent, the highest in 26 years. In a separate measure, the government reported that 467,000 jobs were lost last month, surpassing analysts’ expectations. In the first half of the year, 3.4 million jobs have been cut from the nation’s payrolls.

ABC has this handy chart in its PDF analysis of consumer confidence levels:

If the Obama administration plans to argue for a bigger stimulus, they will find a highly skeptical audience for the plan.  Their $800 billion master plan has already failed, and unlike Obama, most Americans know better than to throw good money after bad.  As unemployment rises and Obama attempts to expand government, expect to see these linked numbers crater in the weeks ahead.

Update: Gallup has Obama at 56%, down sharply since the beginning of the month. (h/t Desmond L)

Update II: Fred Bauer looks at some state polls and sees Obama losing independents rapidly.


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