Confidence in Obama, economy still dropping

posted at 4:41 pm on July 8, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday, I noted that the Rasmussen poll with a Barack Obama “passion index” of -3 still had yet to fully poll after last week’s unemployment figures were published.  Today’s rolling approval index is the first to have all of its data taken after the announcement that joblessness continues to increase, and the passion index has hit its lowest level yet.  Obama’s approval has come close to statistical parity, too:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 32% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of –5.

The number who strongly disapprove inched up another point to the highest level measured to date and the overall Approval Index is at the lowest level yet for Obama (see trends).

In the wake of last week’s disappointing report on job loss, consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level in two months. The Rasmussen Investor Index shows investor confidence falling to the lowest level in three months. The number of investors who say the economy is getting worse jumped from 43% before the jobs report to 51% today.

Barack Obama still has a 52% approval rating, but his overall disapproval rating has hit 48%.  There are no more undecideds at the moment.  That four-point range is just outside of the three-point margin of error, although to be accurate, that MOE applies to both numbers individually, which would make the overall MOE six points.  That would already put Obama in a dead heat on approval, but even with the more modest application, he’s heading there quickly.

Rasmussen is not the only pollster noticing that consumers have lost confidence in this administration’s ability to deal with the economy.  ABC says that consumer confidence has hit a new low for the past 24 years and looks as though it will continue dropping, corroborating Rasmussen (via Yid with Lid):

Consumer confidence is within striking distance of its worst in weekly polls since late 1985 for the third straight week.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -52 on its scale of +100 to -100, 2 points from the lowest on Jan. 25. The index has spent the last three weeks below -50, territory it’s seen only 14 times in over 1,220 weeks of polls, with eight of those coming this year alone.

Positive ratings of the buying climate dropped this week, down 4 points to 22 percent, matching the largest one-week drop ever. In 23 years of weekly polls it’s fallen this far this fast only eight other times. The other two components of the index – ratings of the economy and personal finances – held near their historic lows.

Continued weakness in the job market isn’t helping confidence. The unemployment rate increased in June to 9.5 percent, the highest in 26 years. In a separate measure, the government reported that 467,000 jobs were lost last month, surpassing analysts’ expectations. In the first half of the year, 3.4 million jobs have been cut from the nation’s payrolls.

ABC has this handy chart in its PDF analysis of consumer confidence levels:

If the Obama administration plans to argue for a bigger stimulus, they will find a highly skeptical audience for the plan.  Their $800 billion master plan has already failed, and unlike Obama, most Americans know better than to throw good money after bad.  As unemployment rises and Obama attempts to expand government, expect to see these linked numbers crater in the weeks ahead.

Update: Gallup has Obama at 56%, down sharply since the beginning of the month. (h/t Desmond L)

Update II: Fred Bauer looks at some state polls and sees Obama losing independents rapidly.


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The issue is not sexual, it’s racial.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 12:34 PM

I’ll tell you why I disagree. First of all, older people and women vote in higher numbers than minorities and young people. More blacks voted in the last election obviously than they usually do. But usually Black turnout is lower than White turnout. (in general over the last 40 years.) Women’s turnout is usually pretty good. And black women vote more than black men.

Secondly, you keep citing Presidential elections. We have already stated by some of them go Republican. Each election for various reasons. Usually as a reaction to liberalism. Carter us Reagan, Clinton gave us Newt, 9/11 briefly made women like conservative. And you can’t use Obama’s statistics. It was an historic election because of race. One election. Not a trend.

But you are forgetting all the countless House and Senate elections and State and local elections. These trend liberal.

The fact that Republicans could still win the White House, with some female support, proves my, Jeff and atheling theory. Presidential elections get more coverage and interest by women. They are bigger. So when women take more of an interest and inform themselves more, they can and do vote more conservative. But Congressional, State and local elections bore most of them and they barely know the candidate’s name.

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:52 PM

Got to go.

God bless you all.

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:52 PM

You too, Elisa. Enjoyed your posts!

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 12:53 PM

Kinda proves my point, doesn’t it?

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Not really, proves mine about men voting with their emotions too.

Fortunata on July 9, 2009 at 12:53 PM

A gender gap in voting-the difference in the proportion of women and the proportion of men voting for any given candidate-has been evident in every presidential election since 1980, ranging in exit polls from a low of 4 percentage points in 1992 to a high of 11 percentage points in 1996. Similar to the pattern found in previous presidential elections, polls conducted thus far in 2004 have shown women more likely than men to favor the Democratic candidate.

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 12:55 PM

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:52 PM

Good point

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 12:56 PM

No, Fortunata, historically speaking (and we’re talking centuries), it’s common knowledge that sex is the intersection between man and nature – and that its powerful force does drive men to do irrational things – but making poor career decisions is not equal to voting for a candidate.

You’re comparing apples to oranges.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 12:57 PM

LOL..They should PAY me for keeping these threads going.

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Reagan won 52 percent to Jimmy Carter’s 39 percent (John Anderson pulled 8 percent) in 1980

Ahhh, John Anderson. I was in college and voting in my first Presidential election. And I had his bumper sticker on my car.

Last time I listened to the liberal media who scared my about Reagan.

Another proof of why the voting age should be 21. “With age comes wisom.”

Was it Churchill who said, “if you’re not liberal when you are young, you have no heart and if you’re not conservative when you are old, you have no head.”

Bye guys. I’ll come back later

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:59 PM

I’d like to see the percentages of M vs F on Hot Air.
Topical and leans right, good way to see who is really who.

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 1:00 PM

Was it Churchill who said, “if you’re not liberal when you are young, you have no heart and if you’re not conservative when you are old, you have no head.”

Bye guys. I’ll come back later

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:59 PM

Proud to be a heartless bastard.

Later.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 1:02 PM

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:59 PM

I too voted Democrat/liberal until I hit my 30′s. Grew up.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 1:03 PM

Looking at some of the states polling data – it shows that a higher percentage of unemployed approve and higher employed disapprove.

kthomas8268 on July 9, 2009 at 1:05 PM

Nations unemployment nearing double digit!
Talk of major taxes across the board with Crap and Tax and Obamacare
Kind of expected!

BigMike252 on July 9, 2009 at 1:15 PM

MINUS 5

MINUS 6

MINUS 8

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO!!!

DO THE DROPPING POLL RUMBAH!!!!

The sooner this corksoaker piece of apologist gets his useless unaccomplished a$$ out of office the better!!!!

BillaryMcBush on July 9, 2009 at 1:19 PM

…but making poor career decisions is not equal to voting for a candidate.
atheling on July 9, 2009 at 12:57 PM

No, both are bad decisions made on the strength of emotions, underlined perhaps by hormonal differences. My real point is that suggesting that all women shouldn’t be allowed to vote because most vote liberal is…wrong, and reminiscent of the worst kind of dictatorships.
People’s political opinions can and do change. Win the argument, don’t ban things. Then I decided you were all tweaking (yanking my chain) anyway, so gave up.

Fortunata on July 9, 2009 at 1:20 PM

The question facing Rahm and Dave is how they’re going to stay in power regardless of polling numbers…or votes for that matter.

You know they’re working on it. Wish there were some Woodward/Bernstein types out there nowadays…but actually willing to investigate Liberals and something bigger than burglary.

Would love some inside info and phone records between these guys and ACORN.

Dr. ZhivBlago on July 9, 2009 at 1:21 PM

My real point is that suggesting that all women shouldn’t be allowed to vote because most vote liberal is…wrong, and reminiscent of the worst kind of dictatorships.

Fortunata on July 9, 2009 at 1:20 PM

You misrepresent me and the others here. No one is saying that.

We’re saying that there’s a disturbing trend in the way women vote.

And likening us to a dictatorship is hyperbole. I guess the Founding Fathers were “dictators” too.

Thanks for proving Hippocrates correct. Hysteria, indeed.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 1:24 PM

BTW, the sex drive is not an “emotion”.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 1:24 PM

You misrepresent me and the others here. No one is saying that.

We’re saying that there’s a disturbing trend in the way women vote.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 1:24 PM

But I have said for at least the last 20 years, that I would gladly give up my right to vote, if it would go back to when women weren’t allowed to vote.

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:21 AM

Go on…

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 1:35 PM

Oh, and…

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:21 AM

Brava, well said.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 12:49 AM

Continue…

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 1:36 PM

I applaud Elise’s analysis. She later said she stated what you quote out of frustration. I am frustrated too.

Thanks for proving that you’re dishonest.

Oh, and your political analyses ain’t worth squat.

Her resignation will only make her fade.
MadisonConservative on July 5, 2009 at 10:35 PM

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 2:03 PM

I applaud Elise’s analysis. She later said she stated what you quote out of frustration. I am frustrated too.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 2:03 PM

Liar. Here is what you just said:

You misrepresent me and the others here. No one is saying that.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 1:24 PM

Yes, Elisa is saying exactly that.

But I have said for at least the last 20 years, that I would gladly give up my right to vote, if it would go back to when women weren’t allowed to vote.

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:21 AM

That is what she said at 12:21. You then responded to her 12:21 post (including the exact time in your own post) by saying this:

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:21 AM

Brava, well said.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 12:49 AM

You’re a liar and a manipulator.

Oh, and since you approve of the idea of eliminating the vote from women, and you purport to be a Sarah Palin supporter, exactly what do you think Sarah Palin would think about Elisa’s idea?

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 2:34 PM

She said this later:

You are right. We need to inform them. Not take away their votes. But I was frustrated.

Elisa on July 9, 2009 at 12:26 PM

You’re the liar.

Her resignation will only make her fade.
MadisonConservative on July 5, 2009 at 10:35 PM

And an idiot.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 2:39 PM

She said this later:

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 2:39 PM

Irrelevant. You agreed with that sentiment before she recanted it. If you don’t have the guts to stick by what you say, that’s your problem.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 2:45 PM

Nope, I took what she said with a grain of salt. I too am frustrated with women’s irrationality when it comes to voting, and the same thought crossed my mind. But just because it occurs to me doesn’t mean that I would do anything about it.

I guess that never happened to you, has it?

And, to prove you wrong, you claim that the voting problem is racial. Well, I’m of a racial “minority” here, and I vote conservative.

Put that in your crack pipe and smoke it.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 2:57 PM

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 2:57 PM

I live in Madison, and I’m a conservative. Does that mean this city is conservative?

Put away the crack pipe, sweetie. You’re telling me in a fit of irrationality, you agreed with an irrational suggestion? I guess, by your own standard, you’d be barred from voting as well.

Oh, and exactly what did you prove me wrong on? I don’t care what you or one person does? The majority of white women historically have voted Republican, and the majority of nonwhite women have voted overwhelmingly Democrat. I provided proof of this, and you ignored it. Come back with actual citations showing otherwise, or bang your head against the wall for a few hours.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 3:03 PM

You proved nothing.

Frankly, your opinion means nothing to me.

Get back to me when you’ve grown up a little.

atheling on July 9, 2009 at 3:17 PM

http://members.cox.net/fweil/VoteGender.gif

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 4:27 PM

Meanwhile, poor John Smith regular American is facing this:

John Smith started the day early having set his alarm clock
(MADE IN JAPAN ) for 6 am.

While his coffeepot (MADE IN CHINA ) was perking, he shaved with his electric razor (MADE IN HONG KONG )

He put on a dress shirt (MADE IN SRI LANKA ), designer jeans(MADE IN SINGAPORE ) and tennis shoes (MADE IN KOREA)

After cooking his breakfast in his new electric skillet (MADE IN INDIA ) he sat down with his calculator (MADE IN MEXICO ) to see how much he could spend today.

After setting his watch (MADE IN TAIWAN ) to the radio (MADE IN INDIA ) he got in his car (MADE IN GERMANY ) filled it with GAS (from Saudi Arabia ) and continued his search for a good paying AMERICAN JOB.

At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day checking his Computer (made in MALAYSIA ), John decided to relax for a while.

He put on his sandals (MADE IN BRAZIL ), poured himself a glass of wine (MADE IN FRANCE ) and turned on his TV (MADE IN INDONESIA ), and then wondered why he can’t find a good paying job in AMERICA

AND NOW HE’S HOPING HE CAN GET HELP FROM A PRESIDENT

MADE IN KENYA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

karenhasfreedom on July 9, 2009 at 4:30 PM

http://members.cox.net/fweil/VoteGender.gif

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 4:27 PM

So in response to actual voter demographics showing that race has a far more deleterious effects on Republicans winning than gender, showing that women who are white vote Republican in nearly every election…you show me a CBS poll from 1996 with no racial breakdown, with no explanation of how that supports your point.

If you forgot to include how that supports your point, or clicked by accident before typing, I’m anxious to read it.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 4:46 PM

hotair political analysis:
President Obama at 56% = disaster
palin at 46% = the next reagan

Keep up the good work!

benny shakar on July 9, 2009 at 4:51 PM

http://members.cox.net/fweil/VoteGender.gif

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 4:27 PM

So in response to actual voter demographics showing that race has a far more deleterious effects on Republicans winning than gender, showing that women who are white vote Republican in nearly every election…you show me a CBS poll from 1996 with no racial breakdown, with no explanation of how that supports your point.

If you forgot to include how that supports your point, or clicked by accident before typing, I’m anxious to read it.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 4:46 PM

LOL…give it a rest…you’ve been going on for hours..do you ever stop to even go to the bathroom?

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 4:52 PM

Jeff from WI on July 9, 2009 at 4:52 PM

Is that abdication? Still waiting for you to back up your opinion with something concrete. A poll from 13 years ago with no breakdown doesn’t come close.

I expect better from people touting that they share my statehood.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 5:09 PM

Once it is no longer a fact that anyone can deny, that electing this man was a complete mistake, I predict the moonbats will say, “It’s all because of those Republicans and conservative, not supporting him, and that fat Rush Limbaugh, wanting him to fail, that this happened!”
ToddonCapeCod on July 8, 2009

“Republicans and conservative, not supporting him”

“that fat Rush Limbaugh, wanting him to fail”

Is there any more astute statement that could show just how pathetic the leadership of Obama is?

Rush Limbaugh does not have 60 “Rubber bobblehead stamps” in the Senate, Obama does.

The Republicans and Conservative do not have enough votes to block ANYTHING Obama/Dems want to do; yet still making excuses for their failure?

DSchoen on July 9, 2009 at 6:10 PM

I live in Madison, and I’m a conservative.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 3:03 PM

Thanks for the clarification MadisonConservative. I thought you lived in Conservative and were a Madison.

Geochelone on July 9, 2009 at 9:31 PM

Geochelone on July 9, 2009 at 9:31 PM

No problem. Thanks also for clarifying that you’re not a Geochelone, but a pesky troll.

MadisonConservative on July 9, 2009 at 10:11 PM

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