I am glad I am not in the position of Israel.
Very hard call.

Bushehr is an industrial city, with nearly 1 million residents. As many as 70,000 foreign engineers work in the region, which includes a large gas field. Natanz is Iran’s primary enrichment site, north of Esfahan, which also has nuclear research facilities. Esfahan is a world heritage city with a population of 2 million.

As nuclear reactor fuel is used, it turns into uranium 238, which has a half life of 4.5 billion years. These radioactive isotopes are dangerous to health because they emit alpha particles and because they are chemically toxic. When inhaled, they damage lung tissue. When ingested, they damage kidneys and cause cancer in bones and in liver tissues. According to a recent review of medical research, uranium exposure causes babies to be deformed or born dead.

Never in history has it happened that nuclear power plants and nuclear enrichment facilities have been deliberately bombed. Such facilities, everywhere in the world, operate under severe safety conditions because the release of radioactive materials is deadly, immediately and also long after exposure.
If Israel deliberately bomb a fully fueled nuclear power plant or nuclear fuel enrichment facilities, containment will be breached; radioactive elements will be released into the environment. There will be horrific deaths for families in the surrounding vicinity.
The Union of Concerned Scientists has estimated 3 million deaths would result in 3 weeks from bombing the nuclear enrichment facilities near Esfahan, and the contamination would cover Afghanistan, Pakistan, all the way to India.

Reactors and enrichment facilities are built of extra strong concrete, often with multiple layers of containment domes, often built underground.

Bombing such facilities will require powerful explosives, earth penetrator war heads, maybe nuclear warheads. The explosions will blow the contamination high into the atmosphere. Where will it go is a question that is difficult to predict.

Announcing that they successfully bombed a Syrian nuclear reactor, with no ill effects. Israel has also bombed the Osiraq nuclear reactor in Iraq. See, it’s easy. Nothing bad happens. But those were both construction sites, not loaded reactors full of tons of enriched uranium.

The planet is not large. What goes around, comes around. Smoke from the Gulf War oil fires went around the world and was detected in South America. Radioactive fallout from bombing a nuclear reactor will also go far, especially considering that it has millions of years to make the trip.

Military forces in the Persian Gulf, in Iraq, and infghanistan need to wonder how expendable they are.

The Israelis didn’t precisely because they are resigned to fighting the same war every decade or so.

But this is a recipe for eventual loss. Bernoulli trials, no matter how small the probability of failure, will eventually lead to failure.

What would occupying Damascus and Cairo gain them?

I wasn’t talking about occupation, but destruction.

None of which changes my main point that the odds are so much more against the Syrians that starting a war is simply begging Israel to destroy the Syrian military. After all, what happens when the Syrians mysteriously stop moving this time (or make some other mistake as is bound to occur in any war)?

jarodea on July 6, 2009 at 9:58 AM

jarod, I don’t disagree with this, or your original point. All I was saying was that Israel got very lucky in ‘73. Many in Israel consider it to have been a miracle on the Golan, but miracles make for poor tactical planning.

The problem is that Syria and Syrians do not really worry about Israel doing damage to anything but the Syrian military (which can always be rebuilt – ready for another go in 10 years, or so). There is no fear in Syria that attacking Israel will bring death and devastation to anyone but the military. That is a very dangerous feeling for enemies to have.

Either they thought that Israel had more defenses and was suckering them in (which was untrue) or they were just stupid, no one knows, but they weren’t stopped by Israel.

Didn’t catch that the first time, but we have a winner folks. Arab militaries are in general the most inept military forces in the world.

Also, just to re-emphasize, I don’t mean the IDF stopped the Syrians in a tactical sense (that almost never happens) but in an operational one.

Israel got lucky in ‘73. The Syrians had routed the Israeli defenses on the Golan and could have punched right through with a free run down to the Galilee, pretty much finishing Israel on the ground. For an unknown reason, the Syrians stopped. Either they thought that Israel had more defenses and was suckering them in (which was untrue) or they were just stupid, no one knows, but they weren’t stopped by Israel.

‘73 was a near loss for Israel. They were saved by luck and luck only. And still, Israel didn’t decimate Damascus, because Israel never fights wars, just defenses. This is why Israel has had to refight the same war every 10 years. Eventually, if Israel keeps giving them a chance, Israel will lose.

progressoverpeace on July 6, 2009 at 1:14 AM

“Stopped cold” was perhaps too strong, my point was despite up to 10:1 superiority the Syrians were back at their start lines 3 days later after achieving only small gains. Yes yes, the Syrians stopped for unknown reasons, so they were thrown back after 3 days instead of 4. But they would have unhinged Israel’s defense lines if they hadn’t stopped, and to gain what, opening themselves up to manuever warfare at which the Israelis excel and the Arabs decidedly do not.

The Israelis could have taken Damascus if they wanted. It is often a mistake to equate “didn’t” with “couldn’t” in history. The Israelis didn’t precisely because they are resigned to fighting the same war every decade or so. What would occupying Damascus and Cairo gain them? They would either withdraw changing little or have tens of millions of Arabs to occupy. Not to mention there’s the pesky problem of diplomatic pressures.

None of which changes my main point that the odds are so much more against the Syrians that starting a war is simply begging Israel to destroy the Syrian military. After all, what happens when the Syrians mysteriously stop moving this time (or make some other mistake as is bound to occur in any war)?

an attack not on them but rather on the tyrannical regime.

infidel4life on July 6, 2009 at 5:31 AM

Ummm, I’m going to have to go with a big NO.

Biden says the U.S. “cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do.”

Paging Honduras!

The mixed signals, the lack of cohesion, and the general tenor of weakness exhibited by these clowns is liable to get us all killed.

A military strike would unite Iranians against the world

Disagree. If the massive protests we’ve seen in Iran after this sham of an election are any indication, the people there who desire more freedom just might see an attack for what it is — an attack not on them but rather on the tyrannical regime.

This is why Israel has had to refight the same war every 10 years.

That should have read: “This is why Israel has had war waged on it every 10 years.”

Israel never wins it, just fends it off.

But if the Iranians get really in your face about Israel again and Israel can claim they believed they were about to be attacked… Israel might even be good at faking that kind of thing for all I know. Of course I’m on Israel’s side but I don’t think they are innocent always.

The Syrians aren’t in a position to take advantage of any situation versus the Israelis. In 1973 a better trained and equiped (relatively speaking) attacked an unprepared IDF in the Golan Heights which was outnumbered by over 10:1. The Syrians were stopped cold.

jarodea on July 5, 2009 at 10:43 PM

Israel got lucky in ‘73. The Syrians had routed the Israeli defenses on the Golan and could have punched right through with a free run down to the Galilee, pretty much finishing Israel on the ground. For an unknown reason, the Syrians stopped. Either they thought that Israel had more defenses and was suckering them in (which was untrue) or they were just stupid, no one knows, but they weren’t stopped by Israel.

‘73 was a near loss for Israel. They were saved by luck and luck only. And still, Israel didn’t decimate Damascus, because Israel never fights wars, just defenses. This is why Israel has had to refight the same war every 10 years. Eventually, if Israel keeps giving them a chance, Israel will lose.

Vice President Joe Biden says the U.S. will not stand in Israel’s way if Israel believes military action is needed to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat.
Biden says the U.S. “cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do.”

Every public statement by Vice President Joe Biden should be listed on Sarah Palin’s resumé.

The cost of such a strike to Israel will be enormous; they will take heavy losses, and depending on how heavy they are, they may find themselves less able to defend themselves in Syria, for example, were to take advantage of the opportunity to attack them.

ProfessorMiao on July 5, 2009 at 3:43 PM

The Syrians aren’t in a position to take advantage of any situation versus the Israelis. In 1973 a better trained and equiped (relatively speaking) attacked an unprepared IDF in the Golan Heights which was outnumbered by over 10:1. The Syrians were stopped cold.

Even if the Israeli Air Force loses 50-100 aircraft, the situation would still be much better for the Israelis today. They have far superior equipment (the Syrians are stuck with a lot of aging 70’s era Soviet weapons), have greater numbers, will not be caught off guard, and would still have massive air superiority.

Heck, the Israelis would probably welcome Syrian involvement so they could knock off two for the price of one.

True… My point is that Mutual Assured Destruction comes into play if someone nukes Israel, even with an EMP. If all they have left is the ability to retaliate, very bad for everyone. So, let’s hope for a better endgame than that.
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RalphyBoy on July 5, 2009 at 6:56 PM

Israel has what they call the Samson complex, they are never ever going out without taking everyone else with them.

Vice President Joe Biden says the U.S. will not stand in Israel’s way if Israel believes military action is needed to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat.

Biden says the U.S. “cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do.”

It would be very hard to believe that Adolf Obama approved of Biden saying that.