That is not, in fact, clear. It has lost legitimacy with a large, visible block of Iranians, but no one — including our own CIA, alas — is in a position to guage on the extent or the depth of dissatisfaction. It seems risibly apparent that there’s no way that Ahmadinejad took 2/3’s of the vote across the board. It is not at all sure, however, that Moussavi would actually have won election himself, rather than lost by a much smaller margin. It also remains to be seen whether the majority of Iranians see the crackdown as unwarranted.

The idea that “the international isolation created by the radical mullahs in power” played a significant part in shaping the current unrest is more western fantasy than fact. While reformers obviously preferred a change in tone from Ahmadinejad’s belligerence, the opposition’s shift in focus to the regime itself derived largely from the intransigence and violence of its response — making the reform movement doubly dangerous from the regime’s perspective, of course. Do not underestimate the effectiveness of the information blackout and of official propaganda which may seem absurd to outsiders, but which builds on existing conventional wisdom.

I am solidly in the opposition camp, but I think you’ve grown increasingly quick to opine on the basis of a very superficial analysis both here and elsewhere. In this case, you barely touch the complex of forces at play both within Iran, and between Iran, the EU, and other international players from Russian and China to Latin America. The question you pose is not a better question, it is a feel-good, mostly substance-free question. While Obama’s abandonment of support for dissidents and democratic reform is disgraceful and myopic, we will have to deal with Iran, one way or another. If you look at carefully at the unintended consequences of sanctions, you find that not only do many international entities see them as business opportunities, economic isolation tends to consolidate authoritarian power and popular dependence, not the reverse.

where are the ghosts of Winston churchill & margaret thatcher?

kelley in virginia on July 3, 2009 at 9:17 AM

No ghost for Mrs Margaret Thatcher yet. She isn’t really kicking-ass these days (almost 84 years old and just had surgery for a broken arm), but she is still in the world of the living.

patrick neid on July 3, 2009 at 9:35 AM

Here in the U.K we have just heard that two more soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan .

I will pass on your regards to their families.

No, I am not quoting Gibbs on Iran’s protests, rather, I am thinking that Iran’s so called leaders would be idiots to proceed by prosecuting embassy workers. If they piss off the EU, with whom Iran has been buying time with in order finish their nuclear missile program, when it is so close to completion, would be more than foolish, and many of those in power over there must know that.

No… I think they are going to let the embassy workers go without explanation or apology.

It will confirm that he is the weak sister that people suspect.

Cindy Munford on July 3, 2009 at 10:16 AM

I don’t see it as weakness, necessarily. I think Obama is trying to send every signal possible to the world’s rogues, dictators and thugs that he can work with them, and that they should feel comfortable with him.

It will take them a little while to find a new enemy (Great Britain will do for now) to substitute for their usual tactic of blaming it all on the US, but very soon they will get used to the new dynamic, and you will see Obama welcomed into their club.

Predictions: Russia will get US OK to re-take Georgia and Ukraine. Iran will get bomb, and US pressure on Israel. China will get no blowback re. Taiwan issues, Chavez will get to export his leftist rev. to vulnerable c.American and S. American countries–all with the US wink and nod.

Obama is the enemy folks. Expect him to act accordingly.

And if Obama opens talks with the Iran regime while it is holding British hostages, he will be aiding and abetting this crime.

Loxodonta on July 3, 2009 at 9:56 AM

I thing “hostages” is a misnomer. These are “foreign” embassy workers ie. Iranian citizens, not British as far as I know.

Cindy Munford on July 3, 2009 at 9:40 AM

I would love to know what happened to the injured who sought help in the embassies when it was apparent the regime was stalking the hospitals.

I want to know about this as well. I’ve searched the news and haven’t found an answer to this question.

For me all of the current situations are two times as It’s discouraging when there is not a single issue on which you can agree with the president.

Yes. Except worse than discouraging. Very scary.

For me all of the current situations are two times as troubling. Unrest anywhere always has the potential to spill over to the rest of the world but we have a president who seems to be on the wrong side of each argument. It’s discouraging when there is not a single issue on which you can agree with the president.

where are the ghosts of Winston churchill & margaret thatcher?

kelley in virginia on July 3, 2009 at 9:17 AM

Talking to Hillary or Nancy Reagan

They could do what Hans Brix did, only that would involve getting very angry.

They could send a letter telling the mullahs how hurt their feelings are.

misterpeasea on July 3, 2009 at 8:27 AM

America, F*ck yeah!

Monica on July 3, 2009 at 9:21 AM”

Alec Baldwin is NOT the greatest actor ever!

Europe has rarely been forceful in any situation as regards tyranny. It is not a stretch to suggest that many of the world’s festering problems are a direct result of their actions.

They could do what Hans Brix did, only that would involve getting very angry.

They could send a letter telling the mullahs how hurt their feelings are.

misterpeasea on July 3, 2009 at 8:27 AM

America, F*ck yeah!

Am I the only one who would have been far more comfortable with HRC as COC than what we now have, then pinches himself to make sure its all not a bad dream?

turfmann on July 3, 2009 at 9:08 AM

I would swap two Clinton’s for one Obama any day. We survived 8 full years of them. Right now, I don’t think we’ll make it another 6 months.

Indeed. Ironically, it seems to be Hillary that is trying to steer our so-called president to do the right thing. Far too little, far too late. It is as though our so-called president is siding with the Mullahs instead of those yearning to be free.

Am I the only one who would have been far more comfortable with HRC as COC than what we now have, then pinches himself to make sure its all not a bad dream?