Did Kim blink?

After having the US Navy on its tail for two weeks, the North Korean merchant ship Kang Nam has begun circling back to the Korean Peninsula rather than keep going towards Burma, its presumed destination.  The reversal could put off a potentially incendiary confrontation, as the US may have decided to board the ship to look for illegal weapons had it pulled into port.  Did Kim blink?

A North Korean ship monitored for more than a week by the U.S. Navy has changed course and is heading back the way it came, U.S. officials said, as Pyongyang warned Wednesday it will take military action if anyone attempts to search its vessels.

The Kang Nam 1 — originally believed to be bound for Myanmar with suspicious cargo on board, possibly illicit weapons — turned around and headed back north on Sunday, two U.S. officials said on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence.

The U.S. officials, speaking in Washington on Tuesday, said they do not know where the ship is going. But it was some 250 miles (400 kilometers) south of Hong Kong on Tuesday and heading north, one official said.

The North Korean ship is the first vessel monitored under U.N. sanctions aimed at punishing the regime for conducting an underground nuclear test in May.

Kim had threatened to rain nuclear retaliation for any unfriendly act by the US or anyone else, and had specifically and explicitly warned that a seizure of the ship would be considered an act of war.  The US kept up its pressure, keeping its vessels within interception distance of the Kang Nam, just in case we decided to intervene.  At least for now, it looks as though that was enough to call Kim’s bluff and send the ship back home.

If so, then Obama deserves credit for winning this round.  Had Kim forced his hand, would Obama have stopped the Kang Nam?  Kim apparently thought so, or perhaps his military did, and maybe the military doesn’t want a war with the US at the moment.  That kind of pressure could force a crack between the dictator and the military, which could end the Kim dynasty after Kim dies — or perhaps even sooner.

We’ll have to see what comes next, but at least for the moment, it looks like Kim blinked, and that Obama played it right.

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