Does Rafsanjani have the votes to oust Khamenei?

The theocratic regime in Iran may have decided that they can only hold power through significant change in their structure.  According to the British outlet International Business Times and al-Arabiya in Saudi Arabia, Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has convinced enough members of the Assembly of Experts that Ali Khamenei cannot continue as Supreme Leader to oust him.  His ideas for reform may not have much support past that point, however:

As the Iranian government continues to crackdown on protestors against the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, behind the scenes there is reported to be movement which, although hidden, could bring an end the reign of the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei and Mr Ahmadinejad.

Behind the scenes Khamenei’s arch rival, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is believed to be working to remove the Supreme Leader and is even reported to be considering abolishing the post of Supreme Leader altogether in what would be the biggest constitutional change since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Rafsanjani is the head of Iran’s Expediency Council and crucially the Assembly of Experts which is responsible for overseeing and if necessary removing the Supreme leader. He is also a prominent backer of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the defeated presidential candidate who has become the focal point for protestors.

The straw that broke the camel’s back was apparently Khamenei’s speech on Friday, which was not well received by the Assembly of Experts.  They saw it as needlessly divisive, which is an understatement, considering the massive unrest in the five days since.  They are also reportedly unhappy with Khamenei’s close ties to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as the Supreme Leader is supposed to remain above the trivialities of partisan politics.

But what would come next?  Rafsanjani wants an end to the Supreme Leader position altogether, but reportedly doesn’t have many takers for that idea.  Rafsanjani wants a collaborative council instead of one man at the top, which would be like the Guardian Council they have now, presumably.  It would be tougher for one man to throw elections and to lead Iran into isolation from the world, but also more difficult to efficiently wield power against an opposition movement such as the one on the streets now.

Threatswatch notes that this information first came through al-Arabiya, and wonders how accurate it might be:

As a commenter noted on our earlier post on this, Regime Change Iran: Movement Seeks to Eliminate ‘Supreme Leader’ Position, al-Arabia is a Saudi Arabian news outlet and no friend to the Iranian regime. But rather than use that as a manner of dismissing, I think it actually buttresses the credibility of the source on this matter. Because Rafsanjani can now be seen as also. clearly, no friend of the Iranian regime. or, more specifically, neither friend nor defender of ‘Supreme’ Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

We can certainly hope it is accurate, but even if it is, would the people of Iran accept only the replacement of the Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad?  Or have events moved past that to more basic questions about the legitimacy of the entire theocracy?  Either way, the Revolutionary Guard and Basij might remain loyal to Khamenei rather than the Assembly of Experts — or take power themselves in a coup that would render Rafsanjani and Khamenei irrelevant.

Blowback