Tomorrow: Tiananmen in Tehran? Report: Khamenei issues ultimatum to Mousavi; Update: Mousavi says no?

posted at 5:27 pm on June 18, 2009 by Allahpundit

First came the Debkafile rumor, then Michael Ledeen started hearing things, now Tehran Bureau has this ominous update. Sounds like Khamenei’s getting ready to call out the Guard.

From source: “I have now received e-mails from totally trustworthy sources within Iran that many Sepaah commanders [Sepaah is IRGC] have been arrested, because they are opposed to what is going on and in particular to the plan for tomorrow.

“This had been talked about for the past few days, but my source confirmed it.” end quote

Clarification for plans for tomorrow: “Apparently, the plan is to create chaos and bloody confrontation between Basij and Karroubi and Mousavi demonstrators, in order to justify hard crack down and have Khamenei announce the end of “soft” confrontation in the Friday prayers.”

Related rumor here. There’s corroborating evidence (albeit anecdotal) that some Guard members might refuse to participate in a crackdown, too, thereby necessitating the sort of purge described by TB. From the LA Times, via Michael Totten:

Perhaps more perilous for authorities is the possibility that some soldiers, security officials and Revolutionary Guardsmen might refuse orders to fire on protesters, creating a dangerous rift within the security apparatuses.

“I would never do it,” said Hossein, a 23-year-old member of the security forces who said he and many of his friends at the military base where he serves support the marchers. “Maybe someone would, but I would never fire on any of these people myself.”

Khamenei’s conducting the prayers tomorrow at Tehran University, where five students were reportedly killed in a Basij brownshirt assault on the dorms. Is that meant as a gesture of provocation or reconciliation? Maybe both: Presumably he’ll start off by paying lip service to what a tragedy it is that kids have died, then none-too-subtly warn that more people will inevitably die in the “confusion” if they don’t get off the streets post haste. Three things I can’t figure out, though. (1) If Khamenei’s preparing for a bloodletting, why would he want his face out in public at Friday prayers before it begins? All that does is drive home the fact that he’s complicit in it. (2) The Guardian Council’s still supposed to meet with all four presidential candidates on Saturday to talk about the vote. Is a crackdown tomorrow meant to keep that from happening or is the crackdown actually set for Saturday, after the meeting, which is bound to prove unsatisfactory to Mousavi? (3) If it’s true, and it probably is, that Rafsanjani is rounding up support from top mullahs in Qom for him and Mousavi, why haven’t we heard anything from them yet? Surely they’d want to come out in favor of the protesters before a crackdown begins, to throw the full weight of their authority against the Guard in hopes that they’ll back down in fear of damnation. As it is, if the last thing Iranians see before a Tehran Tiananmen is launched is Khamenei intoning about religion at Friday prayers, they’re apt to target the whole clerical system for reprisals. Good news for the west, not so good if you’re a mullah. Might want to speak up while you can.

Two vids from today’s monster rally as you ponder, one from CNN calling this possibly the largest protest in the history of the Islamic Republic and the other raw video of Mousavi’s appearance among the ecstatic crowd.


Update: Yep, sounds like tomorrow’s the moment of truth.

The moderate Iranian leader who says that he was robbed of victory in last week’s presidential election faces a fateful choice today: support the regime or be cast out.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has told Mir Hossein Mousavi to stand beside him as he uses Friday prayers at Tehran University to call for national unity. An army of Basiji — Islamic volunteer militiamen — is also expected to be bussed in to support the Supreme Leader.

The demand was made at a meeting this week with representatives of all three candidates who claim that the poll was rigged, and it puts Mr Mousavi on the spot…

It was unclear last night what he would do or even whether the protests would die away if he backed down.

Update: The Standard notes that Mousavi’s Twitter feed has a message out urging supporters not to go to prayers tomorrow, which presumably means he won’t be there either. In the unlikely event that they take his advice, that’ll reduce the odds of confrontation. But if he boycotts the event too, it’s a direct slap at Khamenei’s authority. Which means this isn’t Mousavi versus Ahmadinejad anymore, it’s Mousavi versus the whole regime.


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I hate to say it, but that’s irrelevant. The important thing is that the Iranians establish a strong democracy; the tolerance will rise from there.

commenter on June 18, 2009 at 6:36 PM

I don’t see how this is irrelevant. IF a democracy was established, what’s to say it wouldn’t mirror Hamas’?

Upstater85 on June 18, 2009 at 6:43 PM

The protesters are still chanting allah hu akbar.. It looks like an appeal using supreme leader influence to me, with the backup plan being violent quelling if that is not heeded.

I would not overestimate the ‘being tied to the violence aspect’, keeping in mind this is not a western democracy, but a tyrannical theocracy.

I pray that made some sense, I am somewhat inebriated from a party.

saus on June 18, 2009 at 6:44 PM

diogenes on June 18, 2009 at 6:30 PM

Hmmm. There is a standoff isn’t there…who blinks first?

I don’t know if the regime would tempt fate by martyring Mousavi but then I’m sure Mousavi does not know if the regime is willing to kill him either…and he has to worry about his family too.

This is probably one of the reasons why he has not called for a general strike. However, that may give the regime an excuse to label him a traitor and then I have no doubt they would crush him and anyone standing with him and let the chips fall where they may. Somehow I don’t see the Pasdaran as the type of organization that is going to go down without causing some serious mayhem and bloodshed, PR does not seem to be high on their mission statement.

elduende on June 18, 2009 at 6:45 PM

I forgot all of Africa and in particular the Horn of Africa area. Damn pirates!

freeus on June 18, 2009 at 6:45 PM

UN = International House of Pancakes

Geochelone on June 18, 2009 at 6:46 PM

Democracy? Oh yah, they can join the droves of other Islamic countries with democracy.

Mojave Mark on June 18, 2009 at 6:46 PM

If Khamenei’s preparing for a bloodletting, why would he want his face out in public at Friday prayers before it begins? All that does is drive home the fact that he’s complicit in it.

Isn’t he suppose to be all powerful in Iran? Kind of like Barackito Obamalini aspires to be over here? So how could he not be deemed complicit, in fact far beyond complicit?

MB4 on June 18, 2009 at 6:46 PM

I don’t see how this is irrelevant. IF a democracy was established, what’s to say it wouldn’t mirror Hamas’?

Upstater85 on June 18, 2009 at 6:43 PM

Exactly.

Disturb the Universe on June 18, 2009 at 6:47 PM

Democracy? Oh yah, they can join the droves of other Islamic countries with democracy.

Mojave Mark on June 18, 2009 at 6:46 PM

They plan on joining Pakistan and Gaza in the great union of Islamic Democracies…

Upstater85 on June 18, 2009 at 6:48 PM

Allahpundit: Three things I can’t figure out, though. (1) If Khamenei’s preparing for a bloodletting, why would he want his face out in public at Friday prayers before it begins? All that does is drive home the fact that he’s complicit in it.

Khamenei has called the fraudulent elections “divine.” So, he needs a “blessing” for the “divine” slaughter of thousands of unarmed Iranian men, women and children.

(2) … Is a crackdown tomorrow … or is the crackdown actually set for Saturday…?

A successful crackdown will have to be so massive and bloody that it will silence all opposition. The mullahs can’t pull off such a crackdown until they are certain they have sufficient number of loyal forces to succeed. Or, they can continue making partial efforts that further arouse the anger of the population.

(3) If it’s true, and it probably is, that Rafsanjani is rounding up support from top mullahs in Qom for him and Mousavi, why haven’t we heard anything from them yet?

A very good question that cannot be answered at the moment.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 6:49 PM

That’s been my take all along from the first linguini-spined utterance from Obama. He’s taking notes.

onlineanalyst on June 18, 2009 at 6:24 PM

He’s in for a surprise if he thinks Americans will be cowed by a bunch of Acorn based paramilitary goobers. We’re taking notes too plus having a few other advantages. He really shouldn’t go there.
And, I agree with illinidiva, in that Mousavi is doing an incredibly brave thing if he stands up to them, knowing what is on the line.

a capella on June 18, 2009 at 6:50 PM

As it is, if the last thing Iranians see before a Tehran Tiananmen is launched is Khamenei intoning about religion at Friday prayers, they’re apt to target the whole clerical system for reprisals. Good news for the west, not so good if you’re a mullah. Might want to speak up while you can.

Hence it happened that all the armed prophets conquered, all the unarmed perished.
- Niccolo Machiavelli

MB4 on June 18, 2009 at 6:51 PM

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has told Mir Hossein Mousavi to stand beside him as he uses Friday prayers at Tehran University to call for national unity total submission of the people to the tyrants

MB4 on June 18, 2009 at 6:54 PM

Update: Yep, sounds like tomorrow’s the moment of truth

.

When is ours?

RightWinged on June 18, 2009 at 6:56 PM

I would like to point out that the IRGC have been training Palestinians, training Lebanese hezbollah, training fighters in Afghanistan, and trained shia insurgents in Iraq whom are credited with mass suicide bombing of Iraqi muslim civilians.. This is a paramilitary that specializes in terrorism and recruits thousands for suicide bombings within Iran..

The notion that these forces have any qualms cracking down and murdering anyone including fellow Muslims is a false positive imho..

saus on June 18, 2009 at 6:57 PM

total submission of the people to the tyrants

MB4 on June 18, 2009 at 6:54 PM

Exactly.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 6:57 PM

Update: Yep, sounds like tomorrow’s the moment of truth

When is ours?

RightWinged on June 18, 2009 at 6:56 PM

It was November 4, 2008. America flunked.

Joe Bloggs on June 18, 2009 at 6:59 PM

total submission of the people to the tyrants

MB4 on June 18, 2009 at 6:54 PM

Silly wabbit. That’s what Islam is.

JiangxiDad on June 18, 2009 at 7:00 PM

It was November 4, 2008. America flunked.

Joe Bloggs on June 18, 2009 at 6:59 PM

I have to say, I think you’re right. I’m barely holding on to the tiniest shred of hope at this point.

RightWinged on June 18, 2009 at 7:02 PM

The New Zealand press is updating reporting for Friday, 18 June, out in Tehran.

It is tomorrow in Iran…in more ways than one.

Frankly, from what I’ve been looking at for the past few days, this has gone beyond simply a protest in favor of Mousavi, and anti-Amadinejad. The security “forces” [thugs] are shooting at just about anyone, or trying to beat them to death.

Unless the mullahs come down hard, terribly hard, this “protest” has legs…and Iranians are still heading out to the streets.

30 years since this sort of thing happened out there…its about time.

coldwarrior on June 18, 2009 at 7:08 PM

As it is, if the last thing Iranians see before a Tehran Tiananmen is launched is Khamenei intoning about religion at Friday prayers, they’re apt to target the whole clerical system for reprisals. Good news for the west, not so good if you’re a mullah. Might want to speak up while you can.

We know the gutter and we know the stink of the street
For too many years we have pressed through this festering heat
All you Mullahs who towered above us
You who gave us the smack of your rod
Now we will give you the gutter
We will give you the judgment of God!

Vengeance victorious
These will be glorious days
Women of Tehran, come gather your bloody bouquets!
The Mullahs will gaze on our goddess of justice
With her shimmering, glimmering blade
As she kisses these tyrants she will sing them a last serenade

The world may be ugly, but each must do what he must
Tyrant mullahs, in a year you will be dust
Now come let our Lady of Justice possess you
In her breathtaking, hair-raising bed
She will tingle your spine
As she captures your heart and your head

PercyB on June 18, 2009 at 7:08 PM

I have to say, I think you’re right. I’m barely holding on to the tiniest shred of hope at this point.

RightWinged on June 18, 2009 at 7:02 PM

Hold on. 2010.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 7:16 PM

Silly wabbit. That’s what Islam is.

JiangxiDad on June 18, 2009 at 7:00 PM

Silly man. That’s why I and my legion are here.

CrusaderRabbit on June 18, 2009 at 7:16 PM

JiangxiDad on June 18, 2009 at 7:00 PM

And what would Obama do if the mullahs were wabbis?

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 7:19 PM

First, they’ll fire warning shots in the air.
Next, they’ll fire warning shots over their heads.
Then, they’ll fire semi-auto into the crowd.
After that, they’ll switch to full-auto.
Then, tanks.

Hope I’m wrong.

Christien on June 18, 2009 at 7:20 PM

I don’t see how this is irrelevant. IF a democracy was established, what’s to say it wouldn’t mirror Hamas’?

It very well might. But doesn’t the current regime, really? I think we need to be thinking of establishment of democracy as a first step, not an immediate solution.

I’d like to be wrong – we’ll see, eh?

commenter on June 18, 2009 at 7:33 PM

Let’s see…you got Obama not having a clue what to say about Iran; you’ve got rumors (from FOX) of Biden and Hillary ‘pulling his ear’ to get him to say something substanitive; you’ve got N Korea openly taunting Obama with a rocket launch on the 4th of July; And you’ve got the massive protests by people in this country on that same day.

Oh, this is gonna be great for hopenchange.

It’s looks like it’s all (regime change) or death for these protestors now.
I hope Barry has a 50 yard line seat for all this, he’s so cool he should see what helps bring him down in the polls next month.

Then the real whining starts.

B Man on June 18, 2009 at 7:35 PM

Update: The Standard notes that Mousavi’s Twitter feed has a message out urging supporters not to go to prayers tomorrow, which presumably means he won’t be there either.

So, it seems that Mousavi thinks the uprising will overthrow Khamenei.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 7:48 PM

Iran’s Krystallnacht.

Limerick on June 18, 2009 at 7:48 PM

So, it seems that Mousavi thinks the uprising will overthrow Khamenei.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009

He’s risking it all now. No going back if he turns down Fri. prayers.

Dude.

B Man on June 18, 2009 at 7:52 PM

Hold on. 2010.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 7:16 PM

What happens in 2010? Suddenly we magically aren’t $80 trillion (and growing) in debt? Suddenly the free market system “poofs” back in to existence? Please.

RightWinged on June 18, 2009 at 8:01 PM

As I siad elsewhere on HA this whole thing is about purging Iran of those who would not go along with the next steps. They must be drawn out, identified, and eliminated.

Khamenei doesn’t gove a rat’s patooty who sees him doing what. He’s the Supreme Leader – nothing happens he does not approve of. So what if he’s seen leading prayers? Those that may die are myrtars in his eyes. For any that hold a different point of view on that – well, they are his enemies.

Change will happen only if the IRG goes against the Hamas Palistinian forces and against Khamenei’s personal guards – and succeeds. Not likely.

So after this putative bloodbath, we will see Iran testing it’s first nuclear weapon. And after that …

Dec 23 2012 might come early.

Friendly21 on June 18, 2009 at 8:07 PM

I do hope the uprising does overthrow the Ayatollah and his minions. That will be a gigantic step for the Middle East.
I really think the turn of events in Iraq, with the democracy in that country, is inspiring the young Iranians as well as getting tired of the thugs in that government and the violence against women.
God bless them and George W. Bush!

jencab on June 18, 2009 at 8:11 PM

What happens in 2010? Suddenly we magically aren’t $80 trillion (and growing) in debt? Suddenly the free market system “poofs” back in to existence? Please.

RightWinged on June 18, 2009 at 8:01 PM

If we retake the Senate in 2010, we can block Obama from doing any new damage domestically. To undo the damage done, we need to win it all in 2012. Despair won’t help us win either. So, please work on having some hope.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 8:16 PM

Update: The Standard notes that Mousavi’s Twitter feed has a message out urging supporters not to go to prayers tomorrow, which presumably means he won’t be there either. In the unlikely event that they take his advice, that’ll reduce the odds of confrontation. But if he boycotts the event too, it’s a direct slap at Khamenei’s authority. Which means this isn’t Mousavi versus Ahmadinejad anymore, it’s Mousavi versus the whole regime.

There may be an attack on Mousavi’s twitter and facebook accounts to send disinformation to his supporters?

MB4 on June 18, 2009 at 8:42 PM

I saw on a twitter page thats legit that it’s been confirmed Mousavi will not be at Fri prayers.

It’s ON.

B Man on June 18, 2009 at 8:54 PM

This has probably been mentioned but I notice that these folks could easily be punished and yet they don’t hide their faces. Hamas, the “elected” party of the Palestinian people, always hide their faces. If these killers are so righteous, who do they hide from.

Cindy Munford on June 18, 2009 at 9:00 PM

6:32 pm: What’s going on here?

Earlier in the day, we saw a message posted on Mousavi’s facebook page saying “Mousavi & Karoubi ask supporters NOT to attend Friday prayers (which is being delivered by supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei).” We thought this was strange, since they were saying exactly the opposite just a little while ago. Now, Nico and the NYT both have commented about the same message going up on Twitter.

Just as we were trying to figure out what was going on on Mousavi’s facebook page, the message was removed. This appears to be an organized attack on Mousavi and Karroubi’s facebook and twitter accounts to send misleading messages to supporters. We got the impression that they were trying to take these messages down as fast as possible, so we are pretty convinced they’re not legitimate.
- Naicblog

MB4 on June 18, 2009 at 9:02 PM

MB4 on June 18, 2009 at 9:02 PM

I have no link because news is coming from everywhere but I heard that agents of the Iranian government are signing up on Twitter now. I know nothing about it, can they get much biographical or geographical information against the demonstrators by doing that?

Cindy Munford on June 18, 2009 at 9:06 PM

Im wondering what the troops in Iran, Afghanistan, and Air Craft Carrier Battle Groups in the Gulf are thinking right now……………….?

Seven Percent Solution on June 18, 2009 at 9:08 PM

Perhaps the IRGC and SAVAMA [Iranian Intelligence] are tweaking with Mousavi’s twitter so they can host a flash mob…?

coldwarrior on June 18, 2009 at 9:11 PM

http://twitter.com/persiankiwi

B Man on June 18, 2009 at 9:12 PM

Seven Percent Solution on June 18, 2009 at 9:08 PM

Maybe Hawkdriver will comment later and you can ask him.

Cindy Munford on June 18, 2009 at 9:19 PM

It seems that the Twitter feed was hacked at least some of the very reliable twitter people in Iran are saying so… I don’t think that Mousavi is going to back down. I believe that losing face is even more humiliating for people in that part of the world than being killed. Either Iran is going to end up looking more like Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, an incredibly repressive society, or the opposition is going to win. I think that the most likely outcome is still Rafsanjani using his position with the clerics to kick Khameni out of power and calling for a new election, which will likely be a huge Mousavi landslide. I have to hand it to Dinner Coat and Khameni for bungling this one incredibly badly. I’m sure that Dinner Coat wanted to cling to power, but I’m still not sure why Khameni endorsed it. They took a bland insider who most Iranians were using as a “None of the Above” choice and basically transformed him into Lech Walesa

Illinidiva on June 18, 2009 at 9:22 PM

If we retake the Senate in 2010, we can block Obama from doing any new damage domestically. To undo the damage done, we need to win it all in 2012. Despair won’t help us win either. So, please work on having some hope.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 8:16 PM

Look, Loxodonta, I don’t want to appear as if I’m mocking you… because I greatly respect you, seriously… but I just can’t justify that optimism. I feel like it’s a “too late” situation, at this point. As I said earlier, I hang on to a slight shred of hope… but that shred doesn’t really rely on elections, sadly.

RightWinged on June 18, 2009 at 11:16 PM

WOW

Mousavi just changed the whole game from minor evolution to major upheaval/change possible outright revolution.

Either way we should be supporting these guys morally (hidden financially), and politically getting the other nations to refuse to recognize the current leadership. If the Mullahs get dirty i.e. bloody crushing we should threaten military support and possibly even military intervention.

If these forces fail war is unavoidable in the long run.

Also to all those who think we shouldn’t care but still love our nation and support our interest. DON’T FORGET Iran up until the Islamic Revolution was one of our primary allies even an early ally of Israel like Turkey. The Iranians are good people who are run by zealots.

We should support and pray for their freedom and success. Their freedom will domino into helping Iraq i.e. Mehdi Army, Lebanon i.e. Hezbollah, Israel i.e. Hamas, Somalia i.e. Islamist, Nigeria i.e. delta rebels, Afghanistan i.e. money support to AQ/Taliban. It will also cause a glacial shift in the balance of power in the Stans i.e. breaking the current choke point for European oil/gas from the Stans through Georgia, by opening a southern route and making the Russian attempt to cut/threaten the line un-realistic.

This is one of those VERY LARGE payoff acceptable risk times. The current regime will see US as the Great Satan either way whether.

C-Low on June 19, 2009 at 12:47 AM

Dear Allahpundit: Thank you again for all you have been doing on the Iran crisis. I believe you provide better highlights and summaries, and ask harder questions than any of the major news outlets on the internet.

Loxodonta on June 18, 2009 at 5:55 PM
Allahpundit has always dug Persian chicks.

Blake on June 18, 2009 at 6:02 PM

Hey Blake, haven’t you noticed that he has a new movie-star girlfriend? Even amidst Irandrama. Quite impressive.

I_C on June 19, 2009 at 7:18 AM

C-Low on June 19, 2009 at 12:47 AM

All the reason for Obama not to support it.

the_nile on June 19, 2009 at 7:34 AM

Why won’t Iran go the way of HAMAS or Hezbollah?

Because they are being brought in to fight the Iranian people. Reports of non-Iranian Arabs taking part to assist the Baseej will leave a very, very bad taste in the mouths of those standing up to be counted. They are getting first hand experience of what going that route means: they are already at its end-point and will suffer horribly if they don’t reject them. Do remember that Hezbollah is a foreign legion of Iran, funded by Iran, led by Iranian trained leaders, and willing to fight and die for the regime. Hezbollah has grown out of control since its establishment, taking part in the narcotics trade and other black market venues, it is very possible that a turnover in the regime in Iran will cripple Hezbollah in Lebanon, but leave its other units able to get by on local resources. That was Mugniyah’s method of operation for decades before he was finally taken out. The regime now has safe havens to go to if Iran falls from the inside.

Secondly, Iran is one of the great, old civilizations in the ME and that matters to them: just as it matters in Iraq, Syria and Egypt. It is a deeply civil people who have demonstrated far more control of themselves than your typical Leftists at any WTO meeting. As Paine said it was civility which held the colonies together when things went bad, and Iran demonstrates that point, yet again. A deeply civil people will put up with abusive government until their government gets as bad or worse than having no government. Remember your basics on the self-evident truths: they apply to Iranians, too, as they are humans no matter how inhuman their leaders are.

Third is the unasked Ayatollah: Ali al-Sistani in Iraq. For decades he was the center of resistance to Saddam, and yet he walked in not to create a Mullahocracy, much to the disappointment of the Council in Iran, but to support a multi-party, multi-ethnic, multi-religion State. al Sadr lost when he lost the support of Sistani back in 2005-06, and Sistani tried to correct al Sadr and warned him not to do what he did *then*. Sistani has not commented on Iran, that I’ve seen though I still have to check, and his silence is demonstration that he means what he says… it is possible to get a representative democracy going in a majority Islamic State and *still* have other religions and ethnicities present and have a say in how to run things. That is one ancient civilization speaking to another on common ground. When Sistani walked from Iran, he turned his back on the regime and they dared not kill him for that. Sistani speaks by being alive and carrying through his outlook and beliefs, he has no need to talk about it as he has done the deeds he said he would do.

Last and not least there are reports of splintering in the IRGC and splinter groups calling on the Army to help. The Army said it would not intervene, save if external States threatened Iran. Ahmedinajad is in Russia… and gets support from Putin… Russia went through two Revolutions in 1917 and know that a conscript Army will back the people. Returning troops from the front did just that. So Putin backs the dinnerjacket. Foreign support… and if a Russian ‘advisor’ or two shows up, or Russia does some minor token of ‘help’… well I can add that up. Russia looks to repay the dinnerjacket for reneging on the contracts Russia had with Iran and not paying Russia for the work it did. Putin no more trusts the regime in Iran than the West does, but for different reasons. Wouldn’t that be a nice gift to the regime? A revolution because you didn’t stick to your contracts…

The only worrying thought on the last are reports the PKK has been attacked in Iran, not out of the ordinary for ordinary times… but these are not ordinary times in Iran. Provocation, perhaps, by the Baseej and others? Possibly. If the banner of Revolution is raised, then things will get very, very interesting in the ethnic enclaves as the Army will not leave a people in Revolution to go after the non-Persian minorities, since they are to defend their OWN people.

We live in interesting times.

ajacksonian on June 19, 2009 at 7:40 AM

Doesn’t Iraq got a reason to meddle into this, they gain on Iran “collapsing” into Democracy.

the_nile on June 19, 2009 at 7:47 AM

the_nile on June 19, 2009 at 7:47 AM

Yes, they do. It takes pressure off their people, their forces, puts a pluralistic action in place to spread to the East, deprives Syria, Hezbollah and others a funding source, opens up the records of who has been doing what for Iran for decades… they gain much by letting this run its course without interference, even if it is just the regime turning on its own people that will then be just what al Qaeda did to the Sunni Arabs in Iraq and that only goes to one place: getting rid of the oppressors. Which means little money and time for external ventures… all as the Iranian petroleum system goes down slowly to neglect. Then their economy truly shatters and there will be no great power Iran on their border.

Iraq gains much with al Sistani and being silent.

America should stand up for the rights of people to be heard in their government just as JFK and Reagan did during tough times. You don’t have to be anti-regime to support a people, but the multi-cultis don’t understand that.

ajacksonian on June 19, 2009 at 7:55 AM

Doesn’t Iraq got a reason to meddle into this, they gain on Iran “collapsing” into Democracy.

the_nile on June 19, 2009 at 7:47 AM

Ummm, you mean… Payback is a Motherf$%k’er….. ??

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 8:04 AM

America should stand up for the rights of people to be heard in their government just as JFK and Reagan did during tough times. You don’t have to be anti-regime to support a people, but the multi-cultis don’t understand that.

ajacksonian on June 19, 2009 at 7:55 AM

In Iran’s case American should send in just enough guns and explosives to make the situation worse but not enough to help the revolution succeed. The more Iranians kill each other the better it is for the whole world.

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 8:07 AM

In the unlikely event that they take his advice,

On the contrary, going out on the streets today would be showing support for the government. Mousavi supporters will stay home.

Phoenician on June 19, 2009 at 8:07 AM

You know, if Obambi had brains and guts, it wouldn’t be difficult to leak intelligence reports confirming that outsiders are being brought in by the mullahs to oppress and kill Iranians. That would help undermine the system.

Blah! So much opportunity and it’s being wasted!!!

aikidoka on June 19, 2009 at 8:13 AM

I wonder if we know where Khamenei “prays” during his Friday political speech? How fun would it be to drop a very large, nasty bomb there at 12:15pm?

Jaibones on June 19, 2009 at 8:26 AM

Hey Blake, haven’t you noticed that he has a new movie-star girlfriend? Even amidst Irandrama. Quite impressive.

I_C on June 19, 2009 at 7:18 AM

That would be funnier if there was a link or some point of reference.

Jaibones on June 19, 2009 at 8:27 AM

Jaibones on June 19, 2009 at 8:26 AM

Oh… That could be interesting. The Iranian government would blame the protesters, and the protesters would blame the government and in the end, both sides would murder tens of thousands of each other in typical Muslim blood feud revenge. I believe I like that Mr Jaibones… ;)

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 8:30 AM

But if he boycotts the event too, it’s a direct slap at Khamenei’s authority. Which means this isn’t Mousavi versus Ahmadinejad anymore, it’s Mousavi versus the whole regime.

In my utter ignorance of Iranian politics – other than the obvious – this new twist seems to make Mousavi the accidental beneficiary of a sort of spontaneous revolution. Isn’t the guy basically a blander flavor of Ahmedinnerjacket, Mullah-approved and all that?

Now he’s a revolutionary?

Jaibones on June 19, 2009 at 8:32 AM

Of course, if he truly is “the Iranian Obama”, then he can be whatever whoever they think he is.

Jaibones on June 19, 2009 at 8:32 AM

In my utter ignorance of Iranian politics – other than the obvious – this new twist seems to make Mousavi the accidental beneficiary of a sort of spontaneous revolution. Isn’t the guy basically a blander flavor of Ahmedinnerjacket, Mullah-approved and all that?

Now he’s a revolutionary?

Jaibones on June 19, 2009 at 8:32 AM

If by blander what you mean is he is a man with a proven track record of killing anyone who disagrees with him and whose action are far more ruthless and brutal than Ahmedinnerjacket $hit talking rhetoric ever dreamed of being, then yes he is.

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 8:37 AM

This isn’t about replacing dinner-jacket with Moussavi and calling it a day anymore.

The protests have moved WAY beyond that.
You think they would settle for Supreme Leader and all the regime in place except Moussavi being pres instead of dinner-jacket?
Hell no.

They want it all torn down now. I mean dear leader essentially said F you! to the protestors this morning.
Looks a lot like all or nothing.

B Man on June 19, 2009 at 8:44 AM

This isn’t about replacing dinner-jacket with Moussavi and calling it a day anymore.

The protests have moved WAY beyond that.
You think they would settle for Supreme Leader and all the regime in place except Moussavi being pres instead of dinner-jacket?
Hell no.

They want it all torn down now. I mean dear leader essentially said F you! to the protestors this morning.
Looks a lot like all or nothing.

B Man on June 19, 2009 at 8:44 AM

Dont bet on it.

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 8:52 AM

Dont bet on it.

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 8:52 AM

Too late.

B Man on June 19, 2009 at 8:59 AM

Too late.

B Man on June 19, 2009 at 8:59 AM

Sorry to have to tell you this, but that is a decision you are going to regret, hopefully you don’t live in Iran and will live to regret it.

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 9:02 AM

Sorry to have to tell you this, but that is a decision you are going to regret, hopefully you don’t live in Iran and will live to regret it.

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 9:02 AM

You think the protestors will be fine with the regime in place after this is all done?

I agree the chances of them succeeding are slim to none, but it’s gone beyond just wanting to replace one sonuvabitch with another.

B Man on June 19, 2009 at 9:07 AM

Sorry to have to tell you this, but that is a decision you are going to regret, hopefully you don’t live in Iran and will live to regret it.

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 9:02 AM

You think that the protestors will be ok with the old regime in place after this is all done?

I agree that the chances of them succeeding are slim to none, but it’s gone beyond replacing one absolute jerk with less then an absolute jerk.

B Man on June 19, 2009 at 9:10 AM

Even if the election is, by some distant chance, called a fraud and Mousavi eventually gets in, I wonder how much difference, if any, it will make in the long term.

jeanie on June 19, 2009 at 9:38 AM

Down with the Mullahs!

jp on June 19, 2009 at 9:43 AM

It looks like Iran might be disintegrating into a civil war over this.

O supreme leader just stoked the raging fires even more today. That’s all he did.

B Man on June 19, 2009 at 9:44 AM

too Bad McCain isn’t in there.

jp on June 19, 2009 at 9:44 AM

Ummm, you mean… Payback is a Motherf$%k’er….. ??

doriangrey on June 19, 2009 at 8:04 AM

they have it coming to them, we should be returning the favor.

Imagine how much different the US political debate, how many less US soldiers lost…had Iran not played a role in Iraq

jp on June 19, 2009 at 9:46 AM

Some days ago, Musavi was advocating a day of mourning for those assassinated by the Khameini thugs.

Gateway Pundit has information from Iranians that the Khameini has called in the Palestinian terrorists to attack protestors.

this isn’t Mousavi versus Ahmadinejad anymore, it’s Mousavi versus the whole regime.

Hasn’t it been so all along?

Khameini has bound himself to Ahmadinejad. Together they planned to gain further authoritarian power via militia.

Khameini has a competitor on the sidelines who has also aspired for years to become the Supreme Leader.

Mousavi would likely be coordinating with that competitor.

I would be surprised if these politicians did not previously have their own contingency plans, waiting to be put in place, knowing what would likely occur, as is transpiring.

maverick muse on June 19, 2009 at 9:58 AM

jp on June 19, 2009 at 9:46 AM

Good point. However, if it had not been Iran, it might have been some other Islamic country, as they do seem to have as their underlying mission the formation and perpetuation of Islamic states and Islamic law–in one form or another. Along with this is the increasingly apparent goal of keeping power in this or that Islamic group’s hands.I think if you put all these factors into one basket, you have a recipe for continued problems all over the Middle East and Pakistan for a long, long time to come.

jeanie on June 19, 2009 at 10:05 AM

There will not be any hope for Iran Persia until the last mullah lies strangled with the entrails of the last ayatollah. (To paraphrase Diderot.)

Let the people throw off their theocratic crazies now!

profitsbeard on June 19, 2009 at 10:09 AM

Khamenei’s calling the election “divine” was a huge and stupid mistake. The people know the tally was corrupt and therefore he shows himself corrupt.

Based on account I read from people there, these are not stupid people. They are stubborn even in the face of beatings, torture and death. They refuse to give up. Determination at that level, when moving as a mob, is a scary thing.

If the thugocracy attacks the mob, they will be signaling their own swan song, the beginning of the end of their control.

Also, if a democracy forms there, it may resemble the one in Iraq.

dogsoldier on June 19, 2009 at 11:24 AM

You know, if I were Imadinnerjacket I’d be afraid, very afraid. He has been a less than useful tool for the Mullahs for the term of his Presidency. And, once a tool becomes useless it’s time to throw it out. Above all else, Khameini and his supporters want to continue to rule the country as they enrich themselves and their families. Now, just suppose he arranges for an assassination of Imadinnerjacket? He can then blame it on the entire freedom movement under Moussavi and order his IRGC and Basij to kill without discrimination and crush the “rebellion” completely, all the while saying he’s only trying to “restore order” caused by the godless ones protesting the election, which he already proclaimed as “fair” due to the size of Imadinnerjacket’s supposed plurality.

No, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Imadinnerjacket becomes Imacorpse real soon.

Webrider on June 19, 2009 at 11:34 AM

To the person who says its a good idea to let Iranians kill Iranians, lets be blunt about it, though the regime of Iran is Islamic the people really are not, remember that. Some of use see the Iranians rejecting Islamic rule as the begining of the end for Islam. I see people like me demonstrating, not Islamics, those people demonstrating, I care for them in my heart just as much as I care for Israeli’s killed on buses and having their heads smashed by rocks and the killer feted, they are the victims of the same malice and hate and you should think some more on that.

We have had some more good news, the early Quran that was found in Yeman and is being studied in Germany is now being exposed, which is different to the Quran which is called the unchanging word of god, that will really strike a blow to their faith if properly handled…

We have two major blows to Islam coming up, the loss of the Islamic Republic and the proof tha the Quran is not the divine word of god for all but the most blinked, the world is about to change and it has nothing to do with Obama, I have become a little bit optimistic for a change, the hardest part however is to deal with the Islamic nutters living in the West, that is a real challange…

TrueBrit on June 19, 2009 at 11:36 AM

o one knows where this is going but our government should be ready for opportunity. I fear we are dithering in the style of that arech bumbler, Jimmie Carter…

JIMV on June 19, 2009 at 11:39 AM

Silence Isn’t Golden

Since a wave of protests broke out in Iran last weekend following its presidential election, the American media has promoted the Obama administration’s view that it could do more to help demonstrators by staying on the sidelines than actively offering rhetorical support.

The theory is that if President Obama publicly encourages those taking to the streets in Iran, it will only backfire by allowing the Islamic regime to paint protesters as tools of America. As Obama himself put it, “sometimes the United States can be a handy political football…”

But Amir Fakhravar says this approach is dead wrong. And he speaks with authority. Jailed and tortured in Iran for advocating democracy and speaking out against the Iranian government, Fakhravar in 2006 fled for the U.S., where he currently lives in exile while maintaining close ties to the reform movement in Iran.

Contrary to most reports in the American press, he said the demonstrators he is in contact with in Iran are desperate for Obama to make a forceful statement reassuring them that he stands with those who are striving for freedom.

“Right now, the people in Iran are disappointed,” he said in a telephone interview with TAS.

The Obama administration’s decision to engage the Islamic regime, Fakhravar said, has been worrisome to his friends in Iran. After Obama released a message in March for Nowruz, the Persian New Year, in which he addressed the “leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” a friend called him from Iran, crying that the American president would want to talk to the dictatorship.

“’What does that mean?’” he remembers his friend saying. “’We’re going to be alone. They’re going to kill us.’”

He said he’s hearing similar things from Iranians he has been speaking with throughout the week, who are stunned by Obama’s muted response in the wake of the election.

“What’s wrong?” Iranians ask him. “What’s going on with the U.S. government? Why aren’t they going to help us?”

What’s especially troubling, he said, is that Obama’s reaction has added fuel to a rumor traveling around Iran that Obama is in secret talks with the Iranian government. “They think he is trying to help the Mullahs stay in power,” he said.

To combat this view, Fakhravar suggested Obama speak up.

“Right now, (Obama) could say, ‘America stands for freedom and democracy, and as a United States president, I want to stand behind all of the freedom fighters in the world that are fighting peacefully to have democracy and freedom,’” Fakhravar said. “That’s the American Dream. I don’t know why he didn’t say that. He said, ‘this is none of our business.’

Fakhravar dismissed the view that such a statement would be exploited by the Iranian regime to discredit the protesters. He noted that even with Obama’s tepid reaction, the official Iranian news sources are reporting that America is behind the protests.

“Whether Obama says anything or not, Iran is still going to play that game,” he said.

Barackito Obamalini, tyrant at home and friend of tyrants abroad.

MB4 on June 19, 2009 at 12:14 PM

No mention of Iran on the State Department frontpage, http://www.state.gov/, but there are headlines for “June Is Gay and Lesbian Pride Month” and a “Mascot Challenge” for their kids education program.

Way to set the priorities, Hillary.

Terry_Dyne on June 19, 2009 at 1:00 PM

The libtards never learned the truth about what happened in 1953 thanks to public “education” & this is why they are so wrong about this “meddling” nonsense.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/12039

fenja on June 19, 2009 at 1:20 PM

If the POTUS won’t show is support for the Iranian citizens then why don’t we show our support. We won’t have to put our lives in danger but we can put our own pressure on Obama. All we have to do is wear green. I don’t know how to get it started but would be glad to show my stand for freedom from tyranny.

lwssdd on June 19, 2009 at 2:14 PM

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