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Did Iran concoct election results before the election?

posted at 1:35 pm on June 15, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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The Guardian reports that several different sets of election figures now float around Iran, showing wildly different outcomes of the recently botched election.  One set, though appears to predate the election itself.  Did the Iranians model a landslide Ahmadinejad win and then send the figures to the polling stations?

Amid a swirl of rumour, two alternative sets of statistics purporting to represent the reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi as the “true” winner of Iran’s disputed presidential election have been circulating in Tehran.

Their authenticity is impossible to gauge. One set, attributed to an “informed source” in the interior ministry and appearing on Iranian opposition websites, shows Mousavi winning 21.3m votes, or 57.2% of the total – enough to give him outright victory without a second-round run-off. …

The figures have been accompanied by claims from unnamed interior ministry sources that fake statistics were fed into a software program and then distributed to vote counts among polling stations to produce a plausible outcome. The same sources have also claimed that the interior ministry’s statements announcing the results were prepared before Friday night’s count.

James Joyner wonders whether an actual Mousavi blowout didn’t prompt the immediate crackdown on protests:

Only time will tell if these claims are genuine, but a blowout this size would certainly explain why the Iranian government wasted no time in violently cracking down on peaceful protests. And it’s worth mentioning that the poll that my colleague Dave Schuler linked to earlier today showed Ahmadinejad with only 34% support with a 3.5% margin of error three weeks ago, so 28% for Ahmadinejad is not outside the realm of possibility.

In Iran’s case, the quick oppression would have come regardless of how big Mousavi won, but the Iranians may have had a pretty good idea of the scale of the protests ahead of time.  I doubt that we’ll ever get a straight story on the actual results; if the mullahs are even barely sentient, they would have tubed the evidence of fraud after committing it.  The only numbers that they will produce will be the official numbers from the election, whether they were pre-programmed or not, unless they get to the last extremity and frame Ahmadinejad for the fraud.

This is the danger for despots when they conduct elections as covers for their tyranny and/or oppression.  Ukraine’s ruling class had a firm grip on power until they botched the effort to rig an election, and they touched off a grassroots revolution that put them out of power.  Elections offer some hope of self-determination, and when they get exposed as frauds, the disillusionment leads to a rage that would have taken years to build, if ever.  Hopefully, the Iranian mullahs will learn this lesson the hard way.


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Comment pages: 1 2

“oopsie” made me lol.

Dash on June 15, 2009 at 1:36 PM

When did Carter certify the results?

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

Sounds like Iran has learned from Chicago.

Mr. Bingley on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

That could be.

However, take a look at this.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

There are a few pictures of the crowds supporting the election.

I must say, they were impressive, too.

It COULD be that this is simply a highly divided country.

AnninCA on June 15, 2009 at 1:38 PM

#1 – thanks to you both (esp. allah pundit) for keeping everyone on hotair informed with GREAT analysis

#2 – it’s amazing, with hezbollah, hamas, the lebanon marine suicide attacks, barracks attacks, and hostage situation, and what, 30% of americans killed in iraq from iranian bullets, that the left in this country considers iran a “VICTIM”. iran has been and IS “THE” enemy of america for the last 30 years

#3 – sadly, i see ahmini-fool reasserting power a la tianamien square. mullahs stay in power, repression ensues. barry does nothing, another “holiday from history” that ends with a vaporized US city. at least we “TALKED” to him!!!!!

battleoflepanto1571 on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

“faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM”

er, would you prefer an iran run by mullahs or an iran run by someone else? that’s why it matters …

Buckaroo on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

I certainly voted, “Not our business.”

However, I’m in the minority. Wanna cuppa coffee?

AnninCA on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

not to be conspiratorial minded…but, this whole thing has reaked to me from the beginning. Some sort of diversion or good cop/bad cop routine is being played out to bait us into something.

jp on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

how many “dead” votes did ahmado-da-day get?

marktarheel on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

This mystery will be solved soon.

Obama has pardoned Orenthal James Simpson, PI.

Mr. Simpson will lead an investigation to “Find the real votes”.

Mr. Simpson will then be released to Bermuda, where he will enjoy swimming, snorkelling, fishing and golfing. He also hopes to open his own cutlery shop someday.

(Ya, the other thread is dead)

reaganaut on June 15, 2009 at 1:40 PM

They are, if nothing else, consistent: photoshop pictures of missile tests; photoshop pictures of new aircraft for their air force; now made up election returns. Those boys in the propaganda wing really are earning their pay.

Bubba Redneck on June 15, 2009 at 1:40 PM

the US and Iraq should return the favor and fund a revolutionary group to overthrow the regime in Iran

jp on June 15, 2009 at 1:40 PM

FIRST we count the votes; THEN we hold the election said the Red Queen.

Sefton on June 15, 2009 at 1:41 PM

“My kind of town…
…Chicago is…”

-Dinerjacket (strolling down a hallway, quietly singing)

red winger on June 15, 2009 at 1:41 PM

Jimma Carter verified the election results and blames the Joooos for any confusion.

warden on June 15, 2009 at 1:41 PM

I hope that Obama does the right thing to keep this from becoming Tiananmen Square all over again. What an opportunity to let the Iranian people take care of regime change for the rest of the world.

Mallard T. Drake on June 15, 2009 at 1:42 PM

Did the Iranians model a landslide Ahmadinejad win and then send the figures to the polling stations?

After being informed of this possibility, Dear Leader was heard to exclaim: “You can do that?! Now I gotta call my buddy Ahmadinejad.”

rbj on June 15, 2009 at 1:42 PM

Heh. Within 5 posts, a resident troll parrots MSM (CNN/Washington Post) counterpoint about Dinnerjacket’s support rallies, in the mere thousands … which pale in comparison to the estimated 1 million individuals in Tehran protesting the results …

Like global warming, terrorism, etc. trolls and the MSM attempt to bend the facts to support their altered view of reality …

IrishSamurai on June 15, 2009 at 1:42 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

Civil war with WMD’s arround the worlds narrowest / most used shipping lane for oil.

No issue for us there right?

sonofdy on June 15, 2009 at 1:43 PM

I certainly voted, “Not our business.”

However, I’m in the minority. Wanna cuppa coffee?

AnninCA on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

I’m fine with this mindset IF it’s evenly applied. How is the Palestinian problem ours?

Upstater85 on June 15, 2009 at 1:43 PM

Ed,

your next story. the pics are priceless.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1192872/Guantanamo-4-hit-shops-day-freedom.html

booter on June 15, 2009 at 1:43 PM

how many “dead” votes did ahmado-da-day get?

I didn’t realize that ACORN had a Tehran office!

clarobert on June 15, 2009 at 1:44 PM

Is oopsie persian for ACORN strikes again?

eaglewingz08 on June 15, 2009 at 1:44 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

there’s a slim hope that mousavi would back down from nukes and stop funding hezbollah/hamas in return for aid, normalization of trade with usa, etc. maybe even recognize israel. who knows.

with A-jad a few things ARE certain:
-Iran will have nuclear weapons by 2012 at the LATEST
-Iran will concede nothing to the USA
-Obama will do nothing but praise the “debate” in Iran
-Israel & Iran will have a military confrontation

a nuclear Iran would mean:
-a shia muslim country with the bomb, which just happens to support assad in syria, and fund hezbollah in s lebanon & hamas in gaza. look at a map… suddenly nuclear Iran has a crescent of influence from the sinai to the indus.
-the other sunni muslim countries would crap themselves in response. you would see several countries attempt to ‘nuke’ as well…. saudis would fund a project, egypt might give it a shot, turkey would be nervous.
-iraq and afghanistan, which used to serve as an ‘encircling’ buffer around our biggest enemy IRAN, would now be encircled themselves with a nuclear iran. talk about instability with mexico and the border? just imagine if mexico had nukes, and were muslim, and were crazy, and had attacked us within living memory, and imagine if we were almost totally fragmented, a ala 1860.

yeah, it matters a lot. the “nukes” thing basically determines if my generation’s kids will be fighting a world war in the middle east or not.

battleoflepanto1571 on June 15, 2009 at 1:45 PM

Lib foreign policy, activate.

mjbrooks3 on June 15, 2009 at 1:45 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

Who really won is actually irrelevant to us, but the fact that the Iranians are finally up in arms over their fake democracy has opportunities and dangers. We could see some serious improvement if the go so far as to toss their mullahs.

Count to 10 on June 15, 2009 at 1:45 PM

That could be.

However, take a look at this.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

There are a few pictures of the crowds supporting the election.

I must say, they were impressive, too.

It COULD be that this is simply a highly divided country.

AnninCA on June 15, 2009 at 1:38 PM

You retarded anus! Totalitarian gov’ts decide poll results, crowd sizes, election outcomes.

You are the stupidest, most mindless person ever to comment here at HA. Even worse, your personify the BANALITY OF EVIL.

You are a dangerous cretin, and you put your fellow citizens in danger with your mindless inanities and insanity.

For the love of God, go away!

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 1:45 PM

I know our Dear Leader said from Cairo that we’re not allowed to even THINK about suggesting other countries permit FREEDOM…but damn, can’t we make an exception just this once??

Justrand on June 15, 2009 at 1:47 PM

Did the Iranians model a landslide Ahmadinejad win and then send the figures to the polling stations?

Report from witness in Iran that out of a batch of 70 ballot boxes, 40 had seals broken and all ballots within were for Ahmadinejad. The 30 that had unbroken seals were mostly for Mousavi. The Ahmadinejad regime still making war on the Iranian people.

Where is Great Leader Obama? Still out in the White House garden puffing on his Camels?

MB4 on June 15, 2009 at 1:47 PM

Hopefully both sides will suicide bomb each other into complete annihilation

CMonster on June 15, 2009 at 1:48 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

Because I would love nothing more than to see my children and your’s not to have to live through another Pearl Harbor, 9/11 or something worse. And since I don’t see us building a bio-dome over the U.S. anytime soon what crazies do in the rest of the world does actually matter.
I know it’s easier not to care, but it does matter.

BakerAllie on June 15, 2009 at 1:50 PM

I certainly voted, “Not our business.”

However, I’m in the minority. Wanna cuppa coffee?

AnninCA on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

Maybe because Iran is developing nukes and can use them on Israel and ship to terrorists who can use it on ….. you?

I am dreaming though. We won’t be so lucky.

promachus on June 15, 2009 at 1:50 PM

Obama has already given the green light to Iran for their nukes.

Don’t the mullahs control both candidates?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:50 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

I certainly voted, “Not our business.”

However, I’m in the minority. Wanna cuppa coffee?

AnninCA on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

The same reason it mattered in 1933: eventually, certain events affect everyone in the world. Americans touted around with signs that read “Leave Europe to Solve its Own Problems” and “What Did Hitler Do To Us?”

When are the responsible world powers going to learn from history?

LeperKhan on June 15, 2009 at 1:51 PM

Upstater85 on June 15, 2009 at 1:43 PM

Looking forward to reading the answer to your question…

ladyingray on June 15, 2009 at 1:51 PM

Leave it to the Washington Post to imply that maybe the election results are legitimate. I’m sure these two writers said the same thing about Bush’s win in 2000. Look for the New York Times and others members of the MSM to make comparisons between Florida 2000 and this fraudulent election, only the MSM will probably give more deference to Iran’s election than it did to Bush’s win.

RedSoxNation on June 15, 2009 at 1:52 PM

Looking forward to reading the answer to your question…

ladyingray on June 15, 2009 at 1:51 PM

Don’t really anticipate an answer…

Upstater85 on June 15, 2009 at 1:52 PM

Why not? The New York Times did.

Jim Treacher on June 15, 2009 at 1:52 PM

Don’t the mullahs control both candidates?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:50 PM

Apparently not.

MB4 on June 15, 2009 at 1:53 PM

battleoflepanto1571 on June 15, 2009 at 1:45 PM

+100

canditaylor68 on June 15, 2009 at 1:53 PM

So, the liberal talking point of the day is that the people of Iran are pretty much happy with the election results except for a few thousand trouble makers.

Thusly, we should not be concerned with what is taking place.

myrenovations on June 15, 2009 at 1:53 PM

I hope that Obama does the right thing to keep this from becoming Tiananmen Square all over again. What an opportunity to let the Iranian people take care of regime change for the rest of the world.

Mallard T. Drake on June 15, 2009 at 1:42 PM

It isn’t going to happen. Repressive regimes will let this stuff go on for a while as a sort of safety valve but if it really looks like regime change, they will crack down just as the Chinese did in Tienanmen Square. Of course, East Germany didn’t actually mean to open the border when it did and once the momentum got started there was no way for the officials to reign back in people who had tasted freedom.

highhopes on June 15, 2009 at 1:54 PM

CMonster on June 15, 2009 at 1:48 PM

hell yes!!!!!!.

SHARPTOOTH on June 15, 2009 at 1:55 PM

Since the entire Iranian “election” process is a total fraud, what does one sub-fraud matter?

It would be like complaining about the poor turkey flavor of a tofu turkey.

It’s all a fake. A lie. A joke. A deception.

Sub-fakery is already covered by the first judgment of COMPLETE FRAUD.

profitsbeard on June 15, 2009 at 1:56 PM

If they didn’t carry the cemetary vote by a wide margin, these guys need to go back to school in Cook County, Illinois… The Democrat Machine has it down to a science out there…

Khun Joe on June 15, 2009 at 1:57 PM

BHO speaks… about healthcare.

mjbrooks3 on June 15, 2009 at 1:57 PM

You should see the comments on Salon.

budorob on June 15, 2009 at 1:57 PM

They ain’t waiting for a ride at Six Flags….

Holy moly, Annie Olie I sure wouldn’t want to be a street cleaner in Tehran.

Limerick on June 15, 2009 at 1:59 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

It matters to me not only because I don’t want Ahmadinejad to have control over nukes, but also because one of my best friends is Iranian and has family back in Iran. Since the government has cut off all communications between Iranians and the outside world, she has no way of knowing yet whether her family is okay.

Yossarian on June 15, 2009 at 1:59 PM

This is the danger for despots when they conduct elections as covers for their tyranny and/or oppression. Ukraine’s ruling class had a firm grip on power until they botched the effort to rig an election, and they touched off a grassroots revolution that put them out of power.

Insert ACORN joke here….

ujorge on June 15, 2009 at 2:00 PM

Yossarian on June 15, 2009 at 1:59 PM

I knew a lady at the church I grew up at that was an English Professor at the University of Tehran. He husband was an Engineer. They were friends of the Shah. He went back to check on his family and was never heard from again. She and her two teenagers were left to fend for themselves.

kingsjester on June 15, 2009 at 2:02 PM

Since the entire Iranian “election” process is a total fraud, what does one sub-fraud matter?

-because a lot of regular non-news following people don’t know the true deal about Iran or Ahamad. They’ll believe what Barry and the SRM tell them. Here’s unfiltered, uncensored news about Iran that exposes the regime there as despicable. Yet this is the regime Barry wants to do business with.

-it exposes the corruption in the clerical regime to people in Iran. This is a reaction against both the political and religious institutions in Iran, and thus imo has greater significance than similar political-only events elsewhere. This could potentially be as much a repudiation of radical Islam as it is a repudiation of any particular politician or party.

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:02 PM

I certainly voted, “Not our business.”

However, I’m in the minority. Wanna cuppa coffee?

AnninCA on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

I’m fine with this mindset IF it’s evenly applied. How is the Palestinian problem ours?

Upstater85 on June 15, 2009 at 1:43 PM

gotta go, Ann, but I will check back for an answer.

Upstater85 on June 15, 2009 at 2:03 PM

BHO speaks… about healthcare.

mjbrooks3 on June 15, 2009 at 1:57 PM

TOTUS upgrade not ready

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:05 PM

thank you Jesus, that my brother is out of the Army & therefore no longer stationed in Iraq or ME. yes, i know that is selfish.

kelley in virginia on June 15, 2009 at 2:05 PM

I totally agree this doesn’t matter to us at all.

I mean, who cares if Iran wants to acquire nuclear weapons and is willing to rig an election to do so, even if it’s people don’t want to go down a path like that.

Who cares what we, or the serfs in Iran, think.

Really.

lorien1973 on June 15, 2009 at 2:06 PM

Come on, Carter certified the election a couple of weeks ago.

Vashta.Nerada on June 15, 2009 at 2:06 PM

kelley in virginia on June 15, 2009 at 2:05 PM

How about think of those who are still in serving.

A H.A. commenter is actually out there right now.

Nice to be selfish.. but maybe put yourself behind the men and women who ARE there NOW!

upinak on June 15, 2009 at 2:06 PM

I certainly voted, “Not our business.”

However, I’m in the minority. Wanna cuppa coffee?

AnninCA on June 15, 2009 at 1:39 PM

I’m fine with this mindset IF it’s evenly applied. How is the Palestinian problem ours?

The Palestinians want Israel, the Middle East’s oldest democracy and our ally, wiped off the map. That is why.

Bubba Redneck on June 15, 2009 at 2:06 PM

Good grief. Ed. This is a Revolutionary Guard coup de main disguised as a “stolen” election. The Pasdaran has been gaining strength for the past 10 years and now they’ve struck. The mullahs are being cast into a figurehead role and the levers of power are being consolidated by the IRGC, the Minint, and the other intelligence agencies like the VAVAK. On Saturday they began arresting mullahs like Imam Hasan Kohmeni (grandson of the original Iyatollah)now why would the mullahs arrest other mullahs?

Snap out of it this is like missing the forest because of all the trees in the way.

Obama is out of his depth here, like the media, and the so called experts.

elduende on June 15, 2009 at 2:06 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

Lets see…

Consistant chants of Death to America… so many that it is now a running joke.

Iranian IEDs in Iraq.

Iranian Weapons in Iraq.

Iran funding Hamas.

Iran CREATING, funding, and arming, Hezbollah.

Iranian arms found in Afganistan.

Iran threatening to shut down the Gulf, which 20-30% of the worlds oil ships through.

I got more… should I bother to continue?

Romeo13 on June 15, 2009 at 2:08 PM

Maybe Colombia will invite him to speak again. This time, to give ACORN lessons on how to -really- fix an election.

lorien1973 on June 15, 2009 at 2:09 PM

elduende on June 15, 2009 at 2:06 PM

Maybe you can pass that comment on to some of those reporting from Iran on twitter and see how it flies.

Also, what are the consequences if you’re correct? Does Ahmad get control? Does he get to begin his messianic vision and mission? Can you flesh it out?

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:09 PM

thank you Jesus, that my brother is out of the Army & therefore no longer stationed in Iraq or ME. yes, i know that is selfish.

kelley in virginia on June 15, 2009 at 2:05 PM

That is not being selfish…..that is being grateful!
Being selfish would be to now stop praying for his buddies, and all our men and women, still over there…and you are not selfish.

Bubba Redneck on June 15, 2009 at 2:09 PM

romeo13, tell me how any of those change based on who wins the election? I say none of them. So, what is all this really about?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:10 PM

Good grief. Ed. This is a Revolutionary Guard coup de main disguised as a “stolen” election. The Pasdaran has been gaining strength for the past 10 years and now they’ve struck. The mullahs are being cast into a figurehead role and the levers of power are being consolidated by the IRGC, the Minint, and the other intelligence agencies like the VAVAK. On Saturday they began arresting mullahs like Imam Hasan Kohmeni (grandson of the original Iyatollah)now why would the mullahs arrest other mullahs?

Snap out of it this is like missing the forest because of all the trees in the way.

Obama is out of his depth here, like the media, and the so called experts.

elduende on June 15, 2009 at 2:06 PM

Perhaps he had on a white turbin on Black-Turbin Friday.

Bubba Redneck on June 15, 2009 at 2:12 PM

I am trying to get my head around why any of this really matters to us?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 1:37 PM

For the same reason the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand mattered to us. It didn’t at first, until it led to a regional war that led to a world war that we had to fight.

I’m not saying this Iranian uprising is going to lead to a world war. But it could. And that’s why it bears watching, and early U.S. involvement if necessary.

aero on June 15, 2009 at 2:13 PM

Civil war with WMD’s arround the worlds narrowest / most used shipping lane for oil.

No issue for us there right?

sonofdy on June 15, 2009 at 1:43 PM

Excellent but sobering point there.

LSUMama on June 15, 2009 at 2:15 PM

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:09 PM

There are a number of dynamics, all mixing up.

Yes, the Mullahs are infighting. Rafsenjani (sp?) and the current Grand Poohbah are having a power struggle.

But, then theres the straight political part…

And then theres the economic problems (Iran is essentialy bankrupt as long as oil prices stay fairly low).

Add in the competing Para Military groups… some of whom are fairly secular, but many of whom are “Religious Police”…

Then add in the Hez and Hamas folks in Iran for training and such…

Basicly… I think its Chaos, with many many competing power blocks… think French Revolution if you had still had the Catholic vs. Hugonaut armed factions in place.

Romeo13 on June 15, 2009 at 2:15 PM

thank you Jesus, that my brother is out of the Army & therefore no longer stationed in Iraq or ME. yes, i know that is selfish.

kelley in virginia on June 15, 2009 at 2:05 PM

I’d be more apt to call it human nature than selfishness.

Selfish is people who agree with John Kerry or Dick Durbin and think that only the stupid and unemployable go into military service. That not serving is more commendable in society. That being a never-served liberal elite makes one far better than the countless troops who have gone in harm’s way since combat ooperations have started.

highhopes on June 15, 2009 at 2:16 PM

I say none of them.

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:10 PM

Why are you so sure that Ahmadinejad’s successor will lead to the same international policies?

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:16 PM

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:09 PM

Hey JD: They know about it. This is not some theory I’m concocting out of thin air. The evidence is piling up that its not just a “stolen” election and the its been out there since Friday. Some sober analysts in academia and intelligence that are not busy trying to cover for Obama’s policy have been seeing the signs all weekend and have recognized it what it was.

On the day of the election before the polls even opened the general in charge of the IRGC read the Moussavi supporters the riot act. That was when I knew the fix was in.

elduende on June 15, 2009 at 2:16 PM

Where is TOTUS on this………..

Bubba Redneck on June 15, 2009 at 2:16 PM

romeo13, tell me how any of those change based on who wins the election? I say none of them. So, what is all this really about?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:10 PM

As I wrote earlier, it has never mattered who got the most votes here.
All that matters is that the Iranians have realized that they have been cheated. Where it goes from there is wide open, and could cascade into much more change than just dinner jacket getting the boot.

Count to 10 on June 15, 2009 at 2:18 PM

Romeo13 on June 15, 2009 at 2:15 PM

I do see those elements, but elduende’s coup de main scenario intrigues me, and makes some sense. Nobody else is suggesting quite what he is, but I’m not entirely sure I understand what the consequences may be of what he sees as having happened. If I understand correctly, he is saying the mullahs have been unseated.

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:18 PM

Or was Mousavi also in on it and these “protests” are just a way to smoke out the dissidents (and outside interlopers) to more easily round them up and dispose of these problems?

albill on June 15, 2009 at 2:18 PM

I’m not saying this Iranian uprising is going to lead to a world war. But it could. And that’s why it bears watching, and early U.S. involvement if necessary.

aero on June 15, 2009 at 2:13 PM

given the brain power of our cuurent admin, maybe it’s best if we just wait and see…

SHARPTOOTH on June 15, 2009 at 2:18 PM

romeo13, tell me how any of those change based on who wins the election? I say none of them. So, what is all this really about?

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:10 PM

We KNOW what the current regime will do…

We do NOT know what another regime will do… especialy if a Political change coincides with a change of the religious leadership…

And IF things devolve to a real revolution? Which is possible? Who knows what will come out of it…

But any change would probably be for the better as far as American is concerned…. hard to imagine it could get much worse than the current “Death to America” cult.

Romeo13 on June 15, 2009 at 2:19 PM

elduende on June 15, 2009 at 2:16 PM

Thanks. I like what you’re suggesting, but what would that mean to Iran going forward? What would it mean to us? To Israel?

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:20 PM

Or was Mousavi also in on it and these “protests” are just a way to smoke out the dissidents (and outside interlopers) to more easily round them up and dispose of these problems?

albill on June 15, 2009 at 2:18 PM

this makes sense

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:21 PM

hard to imagine it could get much worse than the current “Death to America” cult.

Romeo13 on June 15, 2009 at 2:19 PM

You are too hopeful. This is the same cult.

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:22 PM

Or was Mousavi also in on it and these “protests” are just a way to smoke out the dissidents (and outside interlopers) to more easily round them up and dispose of these problems?

albill on June 15, 2009 at 2:18 PM

this makes sense

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:21 PM

Not really.

MB4 on June 15, 2009 at 2:23 PM

Also, what are the consequences if you’re correct? Does Ahmad get control? Does he get to begin his messianic vision and mission? Can you flesh it out?

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:09 PM

the consequences are simple and bad. Obama’s policy is doomed to failure before it begins worse yet if he insists on pursuing it he cedes our advantages to the regime. The regime will not negotiate in good faith on the nuke or anything else. The nuke is all that matters now. It guarantees the power of the regime in perpetuity. Nothing dislodges them if they get their hands on it. It shows they do not care about the people they rule so they will not be held to traditional nuclear strategies of counterveillance. So a strategy of MAD won’t dissuade them from using a device to further their ends. on and on…

elduende on June 15, 2009 at 2:24 PM

Or was Mousavi also in on it and these “protests” are just a way to smoke out the dissidents (and outside interlopers) to more easily round them up and dispose of these problems?

albill on June 15, 2009 at 2:18 PM

…and now I am trying to remember the name of the “loser” Presidential candidate in Fahrenheit 451.

Count to 10 on June 15, 2009 at 2:24 PM

FIRST we count the votes; THEN we hold the election said the Red Queen.

Obama says. “Darn! Why didn’t I think of that?

Franklyn on June 15, 2009 at 2:25 PM

You are too hopeful. This is the same cult.

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:22 PM

You are tone deaf. Listen to the cadence.

MB4 on June 15, 2009 at 2:25 PM

You are too hopeful. This is the same cult.

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:22 PM

You have been told that the typical Iranian may no longer view his gov’t the same way after this.

You have been told that there may have been a power struggle between the mullahs and the security type forces and that the mullahs may be losing their control.

And you’ve been asked why you’re so sure that a replacement to Ahmad would produce the same result.

Yet all you say is that it doesn’t matter because they’re all the same cult. Not a persuasive response imo.

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:26 PM

You are too hopeful. This is the same cult.

faraway on June 15, 2009 at 2:22 PM

Once people take to the streets, you never know what is going to happen.

Russian Revolution? French Revolution? Poland? Fall of the Soviet Union? No one could come close to predicting what those eventual outcomes became.

Question becomes does the current Government have enough stability to outlast the Chaos? And what will the Iranian Army do… so far it seems that the reported violence involves “Paramilitary” forces.

Romeo13 on June 15, 2009 at 2:27 PM

Now you know why the dems want your guns.

DougDavis on June 15, 2009 at 2:27 PM

elduende on June 15, 2009 at 2:24 PM

I’m not sure. I don’t think Iran is perpetually doomed to be a fanatical Islamic state. It was once a strategic and military ally of the US, and no threat to Israel. I’m not saying that results in Iran today will lead to that type of situation anytime soon, or that Obama will do anything right with respect to Iran, but a friendly Persia as a counterweight to other regional forces is ok.

JiangxiDad on June 15, 2009 at 2:30 PM

How did ACORN manage to get offices inside an Islamic dictatorship anyway?

UNREPENTANT CONSERVATIVE CAPITOLIST on June 15, 2009 at 2:31 PM

What!!!!!!!! Iran fixed the election!! Naw, aint no way. I mean, we are going to talk with them without precondition. We wouldn’t talk with a state that crushes its oposition by force and fixes its own election would we???

the Coondawg on June 15, 2009 at 2:33 PM

Obama To Talk About Iran At 5pm?

MB4 on June 15, 2009 at 2:33 PM

Now you know why the dems want your guns.

DougDavis on June 15, 2009 at 2:27 PM

Actually, they want your guns so that you don’t shoot their constituents as they are robbing your house: they aren’t able to plan far enough ahead for what you are talking about.
Now, people like Ayres, on the other hand…

Count to 10 on June 15, 2009 at 2:33 PM

Romeo13 on June 15, 2009 at 2:27 PM

the regular army won’t move it’ll be the Pasdaran and their surrogates like the Basij militas that are actually on the streets with orders not to shoot yet. There are also radio reports that have been twittered that there are Arabs working in the Basij cracking heads. Palestinians, Lebanese Hezbollah, and even one that suggested some Venezuelan thugs there (that one rumor was out yesterday)

elduende on June 15, 2009 at 2:33 PM

UNREPENTANT CONSERVATIVE CAPITOLIST on June 15, 2009 at 2:31 PM

You have it backwards…lemme fix it…

How did an Islamic dictatorship manage to get offices inside of ACORN anyway.

Limerick on June 15, 2009 at 2:34 PM

Why would the Mullahs want to rig the election? They chose all the candidates and they retain ultimate power no matter who is in office.

percysunshine on June 15, 2009 at 2:35 PM

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