Ahmadinejad reelected, or maybe not
posted at 9:02 pm on June 12, 2009 by Allahpundit
Reuters says it’s a landslide — 66/31 with 61 percent of the ballots counted — but his opponent, Mousavi, is claiming he was cheated, an excuse he’s been pushing since before the polls opened. The White House spin is set for either outcome: If Mousavi pulls the upset, it’s a hugely significant Change that proves the Iranian public wants detente, and if Ahmadinejad holds on, it’s a meaningless exercise in faux democracy given that all ultimate power derives to the Supreme Leader. Complicating all this, of course, is the fact that only the Mahdi (and the Iranian powers that be) know what the actual vote totals are. If there really was some secret groundswell for Mousavi as a protest vote against Ahmadinejad, we might see Iranian diplomacy tack — gently — towards “wider liberties at home and a gentler face for Iran abroad,” per Mousavi’s platform. But what if the numbers are accurate? Turnout was reportedly enormous, which makes lots of sense given public dissatisfaction with how Ahmadinejad’s managed the economy but zero sense in terms of producing a runaway win for the incumbent. To blow out Mousavi by 35 points with the opposition energized and headed to the polls in droves means either (a) the vote totals are cooked or (b) frighteningly, Iranians have embraced his belligerence towards the west and endorsed the regime’s rejectionism on nuclear negotiations. The poll of Iranian public opinion that I linked Monday actually suggested the opposite, that Iranians would be willing to tolerate inspections for nukes in exchange for an economic thaw with the west. So again, how to explain these results?
Regardless of who wins, I don’t mean to oversell Mousavi as some sort of radically liberal alternative to Ahmadinejad. As with all mainstream Iranian pols, the differences here are a matter of slight degree. As Iranian PM in the 80s, he condoned the killing of Salman Rushdie and there’s an argument to be made that him winning the election would actually make Iranian nukes more likely, not less. (“A Mousavi victory’s likely effect would be to make it easier for the West to trust the Iranian regime without making the regime more worthy of trust.”) To the extent the outcome’s significant, it’s significant purely as a barometer of Iranian popular opinion, not for any tidal shift in how the country will be run. Looks pretty grim right now.
Update: Given how quick some in the media were to credit Obama’s Cairo speech with the happy outcome in Lebanon’s election, will they be equally quick to call it a failure if Ahmadinejad wins? Expect them to blame it on Iran’s media censors not having let the spirit of Hopenchange penetrate deeply enough.
Blowback
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bbbut but Obama gave a speech in Cairo…rubes.
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 9:04 PM
Damn, did not know ACORN had a branch in Tehran.
faol on June 12, 2009 at 9:05 PM
Ajad’s win was a done deal. The Revolutionary Guard came out very early this morning and read the riot act to the opposition
Actually it would probably be a good time for the Israelis to strike. The Mullahs are in a position of weakness. They are preoccupied stealing an election and quelling popular discontent. A massive airstrike focusing on five target groups should do nicely 1) Air defense network 2) Nuclear Program 3) Regime specific targets 4) the Revolutionary Guard 5) hit their strategic counter force assets – Missile infrastructure
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 9:06 PM
Was there some indication the results wouldn’t be cooked?
I mean, did anyone seriously expect to wake up and see Mousavi declared the victor?
I wasn’t even bothering to pay attention.
12thMonkey on June 12, 2009 at 9:07 PM
who cares post the Palin interview done by Wolf at CNN
She hit a grandslam out of the park interview that had me jumping out of my chair.
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 9:08 PM
Yes, but all the points you made prior, makes it nearly impossible to determine that.
Weight of Glory on June 12, 2009 at 9:09 PM
The AP say’s that “generally Iranian elections are considered fair even though they do not allow outside monitoring”.
HUH?
faol on June 12, 2009 at 9:09 PM
The mullahs picked the winner, just like they always do, and it doesn’t matter a damn, since their “president” is windowdressing at best.
Rebar on June 12, 2009 at 9:10 PM
Darn, you beat me. He was so sure that the speech was already producing gold. How bad is it when I am glad that creep won reelection so The Won couldn’t claim credit. I rationalize my hatefulness by telling myself nothing would have change regardless of who won.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 9:10 PM
She hit a grandslam out of the park interview that had me jumping out of my chair.
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 9:08 PM
Actually that was a well placed tack.
faol on June 12, 2009 at 9:11 PM
Hey , Mousavi is both easier to spell and pronounce.
the_nile on June 12, 2009 at 9:12 PM
I know I used to be such a likable young man too. What can I say I think Obama brings out the worst in some of us…hope and change indeed.
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 9:12 PM
Anyone who thinks Iran would have anything close to a fair and democratic election is a fool.
Disturb the Universe on June 12, 2009 at 9:13 PM
Actually that was a well placed tack.
faol on June 12, 2009 at 9:11 PM
thx. Now when Allah gets done changing his pants after watching Palin clean Obama’s clock maybe he will post the best interview of Palin i have every seen….nah doesn’t fit his narrative does it Allah.
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 9:14 PM
Anyone who thinks Iran would have anything close to a fair and democratic election is a fool.
Disturb the Universe on June 12, 2009 at 9:13 PM
Sorry AP they gotcha there.
faol on June 12, 2009 at 9:14 PM
They have been hoodwinked….
They have been Bamboozled…..
No Hope – No change – No they can’t
– Who wants to bet we are workin’ for them soon?
blaque jacques on June 12, 2009 at 9:19 PM
unclinched fist
BPD on June 12, 2009 at 9:22 PM
They have been hoodwinked….
They have been Bamboozled…..
blaque jacques on June 12, 2009 at 9:19 PM
They didnt land on Kish, Kish landed on them!
faol on June 12, 2009 at 9:22 PM
Let’s vow to repent when he’s no longer the president.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Thread winner!!
Knucklehead on June 12, 2009 at 9:24 PM
Oddly enough, I find myself wondering if worse isn’t better in this case.
A “moderate” would only give the real powers in Iran the time they need to get the bomb.
Count to 10 on June 12, 2009 at 9:25 PM
Please don’t go along with the MSM notion that freedom-loving Iranians are “liberal” & AckMyDumbJihad is “conservative”. Ack is a statist.
jgapinoy on June 12, 2009 at 9:25 PM
OK deal….unless Hilary somehow rises zombie like from the ashes in which case…all bets are off again. ;-)
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 9:26 PM
Elections……….?
……… As in two, or more, opposing political parties that take their true message and agenda to the populace by a free and independent press, that inform truthfully, accurately, and without political bias so the population can be informed and base their votes on the truth?
And when in power, the newly elected government actually governs by rule of law, self control, restraint, humility, and for the common good of all it’s citizens, including members of the opposition party………….?
Naaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh…………
………… I have read about those, but I have never seen one.
Seven Percent Solution on June 12, 2009 at 9:26 PM
I won’t take this election serious until Jimmy Carter says its okay.
lavell12 on June 12, 2009 at 9:28 PM
I bet the Jihadys are glad that distraction is over,
and now they can get back to stock-piling their nukes,
head underground to their deep bunkers,free whats his
name,stuck in zee well,
and,try for round three of world dominance,and Muslim
superiority!!
canopfor on June 12, 2009 at 9:30 PM
It’s like a fairy tale. Very pretty thought, little or no reality.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 9:31 PM
+10
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 9:32 PM
Well, we’ll soon know for sure the outcome of Obama’s speech. My big question is that if Ahma(I am tired of having to spell his whole name and besides it’s too hard)got elected will we have to listen to another speech down the line? Oh, of course we will! Dumb question–sorry!
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 9:35 PM
I thought I’d read where Mousavi was one of the founders of Hamas. How could this be to the right of dinnerjacket?
txag92 on June 12, 2009 at 9:35 PM
It’s really hard to brush her off as a ditz when she’s allowed to speak for herself and it’s revealed that she is articulate, intelligent, and clearly informed about the issues. That’s why it isn’t posted.
jimmy2shoes on June 12, 2009 at 9:35 PM
But Ahmadinejad is so much fun to pick on, such as
I’m-a-dim-whack-job, I’m-in-a-jihad or I’m-a-dhimmi-job.
Bigfoot on June 12, 2009 at 9:37 PM
I’ll post it tomorrow, troll. Didn’t Ed already post one Palin interview today? Because you were jumping out of your chair over basically the same interview she gave to Today, I’m supposed to snap to attention and post it ASAP? Start your own blog.
Allahpundit on June 12, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Moucolemansavi, give it up bro. Too many freaks out there.
PaCadle on June 12, 2009 at 9:40 PM
Allahpundit on June 12, 2009 at 9:38 PM
Oh snap!
txag92 on June 12, 2009 at 9:40 PM
Sorry to disagree, I thought this one was the thread winner.
But both apply!
freeus on June 12, 2009 at 9:42 PM
See, wasn’t that fun?
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 9:42 PM
Yes and from now on Hot Air will be known as Palin-O-Matic and we should get prizes for commenting.
aengus on June 12, 2009 at 9:44 PM
who cares post the Palin interview done by Wolf at CNN unseen on June 12, 2009 at 9:08 PM
I’d like that too since I did not see or hear it. I’ve been in a very bad mood since the Letterman thing and could use something to improve my spirits.
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 9:44 PM
This is what happened last time when Ahmadinejad won. This time Mousavi had the student vote. This is not the same as the “youth” vote we hear about. There are lots of young people in Iran, but many/most are poor.
The poor in rural areas is Ahmadinejad’s base. Here at home, the poor don’t vote. In a dictatorial state they do, en mass. When 75% of the country is slaves, well you see the result.
Agrippa2k on June 12, 2009 at 9:47 PM
He’ll get to it. Did you watch the one already posted? She should probably let it go now, she won this round.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 9:49 PM
Weight of Glory on June 12, 2009 at 9:49 PM
Nope. Look for the media to blame the “previous administration” for so damaging relations with Iran, that not even the new Kerygma of Hope can undo what Bush has done.
Weight of Glory on June 12, 2009 at 9:49 PM
Obama has ultimate power in Iran?
malclave on June 12, 2009 at 9:53 PM
its at c4p
hotair dropping the ball
BPD on June 12, 2009 at 9:55 PM
What are the chances this election result is used as a pretext by the White House enemies of Obama’s NSA, James Jones, to throw him out? Reports today were that he was on thin ice already…how ugly would it look for Barry to lose his NSA after 6 months?
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 9:58 PM
No. I was only joking with AP. I don’t think Palin is as conservative as people think she is. She doesn’t appeal to me.
Armond White, of the New York Press, once said that Blue State and Red State differences were really disguised class divisions. I think, in the instance of Palin at least, that is very true. She’s a symbol for rural America more than anything else. That’s why the bitterness against “cocktail-drinking elitists” etc. during the campaign was about ten times more intense than usual.
I watched her debate with Biden where she stated her positions like increasing NEA funding. The actual content of the debate seemed to pass most people by but she took liberal positions on several issues.
aengus on June 12, 2009 at 10:03 PM
PJTV has a couple of reports supposedly from in Iran, basically saying it’s a little chaotic right now. As in, airbrushing of previous official-versions, militias and the military making initial moves, etc. I wouldn’t give any credence to “results” given in the next day or so, until things are all done shaking out.
Blacksmith on June 12, 2009 at 10:07 PM
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 9:49 PM
I have to ask myself if I would let it go if Willow were my daughter or grandaughter–and the answer comes up NO! (or Bristol either for that matter)I’d be out consulting every nasty lawyer in a hundred mile radius if I were Sarah and damn the Presidency. I’d feel obligated to turn this guy into a personal vendetta if I could. Guess I’m a meanie!
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 10:08 PM
I get a good vibe from Gov. Palin but like you the jury is still out for me. I don’t think I would attribute much that she said during the campaign as strictly her beliefs since it wasn’t her campaign. I would like some polish added to what I think are good basic instincts and a form of that polish would be to shut up when you have won the argument.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:09 PM
fixed
BPD on June 12, 2009 at 10:10 PM
http://thespiritofman.blogspot.com/
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 10:11 PM
As a mom, I understand, as a someone who wants a future in politics I would hold my head up high, wear a big smile and walk away. I don’t think you can sue Mr. Letterman for being stupid.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:11 PM
Well yes that was the heart of the problem I guess. By accepting the VP nomination she became McCain’s Lieutenant and had to adopt most of his positions as her own. McCain has the Anti-Midas touch.
aengus on June 12, 2009 at 10:14 PM
aengus on June 12, 2009 at 10:14 PM
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:17 PM
Well re NEA funding Palin said it was because her parents were both teachers which I didn’t like. My parents were both teachers but I don’t support teacher’s unions. It’s sort of like when G.W. said he supported Amnesty because he had a Mexican nanny. There’s something very wrong with personalising political issues in this way. Either these Oprah-style digression are being used as justification for taking unconservative positions or these pols are over-sentimental and not thinking. Either way its bad.
aengus on June 12, 2009 at 10:18 PM
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:11 PM
No, not for stupidity–but if the Palin’s can prove that his remarks clearly damaged Willow’s reputation with her peers and caused her ridicule and emotional trauma–Letterman can have the s–t sued out of him. That would be my route.
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 10:18 PM
Yes they get overheated very quickly. In fact this is an Ahmadinejad thread and we’ve veered off-topic. I’m going to sign off for the night. It was nice talking to you.
aengus on June 12, 2009 at 10:20 PM
As noted we are way way off topic on this thread. I tend to classify lawyers and journalist somewhat below pimps and prostitutes so it’s probably not a route I would take, besides it would keep her daughter even more in the public eye to no advantage.
Sorry to any conservative lawyers and journalist, you obviously aren’t include in my insult.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:25 PM
I’ll post it tomorrow, troll. Didn’t Ed already post one Palin interview today? Because you were jumping out of your chair over basically the same interview she gave to Today, I’m supposed to snap to attention and post it ASAP? Start your own blog.
Allahpundit on June 12, 2009 at 9:38 PM
I wouldn’t call a 5 hour lag jumping to attention. But maybe a New yorkers idea of time is different than others.
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 10:28 PM
Don’t take it personally, he’s getting a bunch of crap from people tonight.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:30 PM
Ha! There is an ACORN international but if they’re in Tehran they’re keeping it close to the vest.
Buy Danish on June 12, 2009 at 10:30 PM
Sorry aengus has signed off as I would have liked to discuss the teacher’s union a little. Once upon a time, you younsters may not know, there was a real need for a techer’s union only back then they were called associations and were not terribly powerful. One of the main reasons they came into being was the practice of municipalities hiring a teacher and the summarily firing her(mostly women then)so as to give their job to a political crony, their wife, the neighbors kid whom they had know forever or anyone else who was politically or socially expedient. The other more subtle practice was to find some way to destroy this teacher’s reputation for either the same reason or because they wanted to spend cash elsewhere and consolidated classes to the point where teaching the kids was impossible.(there were other reasons too, but these were the main abuses being practiced). Teacher’s jobs became political tools of the most blatant kind. So–the teachers got together and fought back just like every other union.Now the unions bosses are just into power and justifying their own existences. In fact, when it comes to lays offs, the union seniority system regularly agrees to firing newer teachers and keeping older even if the older teacher is a prize winning dud. Most cells are agency shops where you must pay dues whether you belong or not–so everyone joins in the end. Like most of the other unions, they are now borderline corrupt and politically self perpetuating. However, their lawyers still fill the role of protecting teachers legally from nasty adminstrators and nasty parents. Teachers in todays world cannot afford to be without this protection. Voila!! The union thrives. Sorry for the length.
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 10:37 PM
Bravo Zulu.
BallisticBob on June 12, 2009 at 10:38 PM
Don’t take it personally, he’s getting a bunch of crap from people tonight.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:30 PM
I don’t…just I know if it was a bad interview it would have been posted within 15mins. The Curoic interview had like 6 posts on it that day.
allah snarks about the MSM with the liberal/gop reporting all the time yet it seems he is guilty of the same thing when it comes to figures like Palin or Fred.
But he is right it his his co-blog so he can post what He wants when he wants how he wants.
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 10:42 PM
I wonder what part of Theocratic Dictatorship Obama and his mouth breathing supporters don’t understand?
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 10:45 PM
Cindy: Yeah, off topic in more ways than just one. But, once in a while it can’t hurt I hope.
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 10:47 PM
As crazy as this sounds I am much happier that he came back at you here in the thread then whining about you on Twitter. It’s honest and both of you made your points. I think that’s what blogs are suppose to be.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:47 PM
It annoys a lot of people and it usually doesn’t happen until the thread has gone a long time. It’s kind of a blog etiquette thing but sometimes you have stuff to say and no place to say it. Mark it O/T so those who want to keep with the subject can ignore. This whole thread is O/T.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:50 PM
It truly does not matter which one of these came flea circuses wins. Really it doesn’t. They’re both America hating, Jew hating towel headed, brain roasted idiots bent on having their apocalypse so their messiah can come blow them all while a million virgins watch, and oh yeah Ahmadinnerjacket, screw muhammed.
Come get me, asshat.
Spiritk9 on June 12, 2009 at 10:53 PM
Amadinnerjacket is going to win and we should play up the phony election line.
Krauthammer says that only regime change keeps the nukes out of Iran. It’s a longshot – but really all we’ve got. The Iranian people need to be distrustful of their government and certain they were cheated.
HondaV65 on June 12, 2009 at 10:53 PM
I’m really getting sick of HotAir censoring an entire post over a really lame and stupid word like A S S.
Whoever put that in the censorship bin is an A S S and can kiss my A S S.
/middle finger
Spiritk9 on June 12, 2009 at 10:54 PM
It annoys a lot of people and it usually doesn’t happen until the thread has gone a long time. It’s kind of a blog etiquette thing but sometimes you have stuff to say and no place to say it. Mark it O/T so those who want to keep with the subject can ignore. This whole thread is O/T.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:50 PM
True but that is because anyone that seriously thought Iran would have free fair elections needs their head examined. And until allah bans me i will continue to call him on his one sided posts of conservative bashing.
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 10:54 PM
That made sense to me. But AP was sort of scary. Not as scary as you, of course, but close.
Loxodonta on June 12, 2009 at 10:55 PM
What diff. does it make?None what so ever .
thmcbb on June 12, 2009 at 10:57 PM
Cindy: This is my favorite blog but unlike some of the others, they rarely have an open thread. This is probably to their credit as I suspect that open threads may be a sign of flagging interest in keeping the blog viable.(laziness?lol).
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 10:58 PM
I would think it would need to be Mullah regime change or is that what he meant?
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 10:59 PM
I’d be surprised if he banned you but what do I know, but you should absolutely call them as you see them.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 11:00 PM
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 11:00 PM
thx
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 11:02 PM
Sooooo–do we know whether dinnerjack(I really like that)won or not? Notice, I’m back on topic.
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 11:03 PM
Good job. I think we will have to wait and see if the Mullah’s think it is to their advantage to have our shiny new president think his speech had some kind of magical impact on the citizens of Iran. It would be interesting to know if there is some kind of communication going on between the two factions.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 11:07 PM
Sooooo–do we know whether dinnerjack(I really like that)won or not? Notice, I’m back on topic.
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 11:03 PM
lol yeah he won if the mullahs want him to win…
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 11:07 PM
Someone posted the interview you are interested in at the Megan McCain thread.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 11:11 PM
unseen on June 12, 2009 at 11:07 PM
Winner or no, I refuse, totally refuse to learn to spell or pronounce his name.
jeanie on June 12, 2009 at 11:21 PM
This simply proves that Al Gore and the DNC has succeeded in creating instability in the world for the 2000 recount recount recount recount.
- The Cat
MirCat on June 12, 2009 at 11:22 PM
The Iranians came to see Obama in secret in Feb 09 probably earlier. Pelosi has been in contact with the Iranians since Nov. 2006.
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 11:26 PM
Psssst…..Hey AllahP, It is a pretend democratic process. It does not matter who wins, they will be the chosen mouthpiece of Khamenie. They are Muslims, they do not really practice democracy and the are not as awesome as Bush has led you to believe.
BL@KBIRD on June 12, 2009 at 11:27 PM
Call me a tad on the insensitive side towards my own brethren, but……….
Hey, I wonder if 78% of the Jews in Iran voted for Iminthemoodfor Abigwhompinjihad.
Sometimes ya gotta go with the snark and this is one of those times.
Cheers !
Kenny Solomon
Typical bitter Jewish God-clinging gun owner and barking-mad insane NASCAR fan.
E T Cartman on June 12, 2009 at 11:33 PM
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 11:42 PM
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/12/iran_elections_update
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 11:43 PM
Interesting. I think those folks would play Mr. Obama like a fiddle. He is no where near as smart as he thinks he is and they have a lot of experience with fools. Jimmy Carter for instance.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 11:45 PM
I am sorry but breaking that many stereotypes is clearly illegal.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 11:47 PM
These people invented chess.
If I were a Mousavi supporter…right now I’d be worried that the mullahs are stoking a conflict in order to crush dissent that’s been festering since 2003…
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 11:52 PM
‘Tis all true Cindy.
Next week, I upgrade my NRA membership to “Life” status too.
Cheers !
Kenny
E T Cartman on June 12, 2009 at 11:54 PM
Meantime, the Hague-based NGO, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, sent out a press release at about 11pm EST saying:
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/12/iran_elections_update
I hate it when I’m right.
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 11:57 PM
In spite of everthing, God Bless America, better here then anywhere.
Goodnight and sweet dreams everyone.
Cindy Munford on June 12, 2009 at 11:57 PM
Good Night.
elduende on June 12, 2009 at 11:59 PM
I’m really glad barry came out to tell us about this “robust” showing of democracy….cretin. He legitimized the Mullahs earlier today without waiting for the results…what a disaster this nation has leading it.
elduende on June 13, 2009 at 12:05 AM
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