Ramirez: How proliferation works

How does one encourage nuclear proliferation?  First, you maintain a decades-long strong stance on enforcement of proliferation treaties.  Next, hint that you don’t have the stamina to enforce it with the most non-rational and dangerous nation in a region, and suddenly the rest of the flock appears:

In this case, it would be difficult to blame the rest of the nations in the region.  Americans tend to think of the “Muslim world” as a monolithic entity, but in practice, the various Islamic nations are anything but united.  Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan can abide a nuclear Iran only slightly more than Israel.  A nuclear Iran would immediately pursue regional hegemony over the Arab world, a millenia-old dream of the Persians and an equally long nightmare of the Arabs.  A lack of enforcement now would touch off an arms race, with weapons not being held by ideological but rational actors like the US and Soviet Union but the messianic mullahs of Iran.  The problem would quickly overwhelm the West, and a nuclear war would almost be a certainty.

Ramirez has a terrific collection of his works: Everyone Has the Right to My Opinion, which covers the entire breadth of Ramirez’ career, and it gives a fascinating look at political history.  Read my review here, and watch my interviews with Ramirez here and here.  And don’t forget to check out the entire IBD site, while individual investors still exist.

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