In the words of the old chinese curse, we live in interesting times.

Our current deployments seems excesive to the casual observer, and there is always the risk that NK may think so too but remarkable neither the Navy or most of the Air Force are being overtaxed by our current conflicts, thus they are available to provide timely reinforcements in overwhelming numbers.

The problem of any NKA attacking force is that you need to be out in the open to move towards your objectives in the south. This is a risky proposition when the other side is likely to reach air supremacy in the first day of any conflict. Iraq in 1991 and 2003 was a good test subject.

However, I agreed that we are likely to get casualties numbers in our forces not seen since WWII or Korea I. Strangely enough, because I see the Messiah as the typical politician trying to cover his own behind. I expect that if NK uses chemical or nuclear weapons or induces large number of deaths, he is likely to go nuclear, literally. All to provide some cover for the congrssional investigations and impeachment proceedings soon to follow.

I doubt that China is going to be inclined to help them, is difficult to explain to their own populace why their sons are going to be exposed to chemicals and nuclear radiation just because the Dear Leader was suicidal.

All of us make “armchair” judgments including the Pentagon. Let’s say the North Koreans are as bad as most ‘Hot Air’ bloggers think (elsewhere people have a more menacing view of NK’s potential). What’s to prevent a crazed Kim, reeling from defeat, from nuking or even gassing the attacking Americans or South Koreans.Remember HE’S GOT THE BOMB AND HE’S UNSTABLE. Also would China want a victorious American Army on their border on the Yalu River without intervening? I think not.

Whether the North Korean army is good, bad or indifferent-America has a president who would rather aopogize to crazed foreign dictators than confront them. If that were not bad enough-America is already stretched to its military limits in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere and Iran is close to getting nukes with a leader ever loonier than Kim.. To get enough soldiers to meet new demands, Obama would have to reinstitute a politically fatal draft. Also the casualties of an American involvement in Korea would dwarf those in Iraq even if the NK soldiers were only “average”.

I’m too young to remember but I did study the North Korean invasion of the south in 1950. The North Koreans were described then as ‘undernourished, unmotivated, ill equipped and poorly trained”. It was estimated that all would be set aright in “month or two” after Truman sent three US combat divisions to stem the tide. In a “month or two” three badly battered US divsions together with their South Korean allies were pushed into the Pusan perimeter facing possible evacuation or surrender. It took MacArthur’s Inchon end-run to get us out of the mess plus a draft and hundreds of thousands of reserves and, 59 years later the war still technically exists.

The current North Korean Army may, in fact, be the “Over-The-Hill-Gang” as some critics suggest but I’d rather not test this theory with the American military.

MaiDee on May 27, 2009 at 11:39 PM

I think that you may want to reread those history books. The NKDR could only launch his 1950 invasion with Soviet Union assistance and only stopped the UN forces under Macarthur with a massive infusion of Chinese “volunteers”.

Now they stand alone.

No one here says that is going to be a cake walk, fact is that all of us that understand the stakes expect sort of a Pyrrhic victory for South Koreans forces with our support. But no one expects us fighting Soviet fighter pilots or Chinese soldiers again.

MaiDee on May 27, 2009 at 11:39 PM

We would have won the thing if China hadn’t joined in on the side of N Korea. If we send troops to take Kim down will China do the same thing today that they did back then? That is the question.

The current North Korean Army may, in fact, be the “Over-The-Hill-Gang” as some critics suggest but I’d rather not test this theory with the American military.

Amy,

I have a question for you do we have a missile defense on the Korea Peninsula.

Clyde5445 on May 27, 2009 at 10:51 AM

Bobmx is right, “we” do have a missle defense system in place in the Republic of Korea. South Korea with the US in Korea (USFK) have combined missile defense systems that, as my active duty soldier and subject matter expert on North Korea tells me, “will put a big hurt on the DPRK’s ability to hit us.”

agree the ROK is very good. But they don’t have the numbers…neither do the US forces. I’m not disparaging the abilities of either force. But I feel the threat of the NK convention forces have been consistently underrated. The best policy has always been to threaten them with annihilation if they attacked. Obama has indicated, through his lack of response, that we may well do nothing effective to counter them.

AUINSC on May 27, 2009 at 10:42 AM

A common misconception is that the ROK forces are not as well trained or capable as north korean forces. Nothing could be further from the truth. This below from my husband, who is a MSG in the US Army:

The DPRK (North Korea) has about 1.2 million regulars and 150,000 special forces. They have dilapidated tanks and planes from the USSR which have not been maintaned well because they don’t make the parts anymore. They cannot fight much longer than 30 days or so before they run out of fuel and food. They have 15,000 pieces of artillery and rockets aimed at ROK (Republic of Korea-South Korea) targets including many scuds and ballistic (long range) missiles. Up to 60% of the DPRK’s missiles may have chemical warheads.

The alliance between the ROK and USFK has about 700,000 active duty and another million reservists that will be called up on alert. The Combined Forces Command (CFC) of ROK and USFK has a tremendous advantage with air superiority, naval superiority, weapon stocks, industrial bases, and international support. We have superior satellite technology and an extremely potent response to the DPRK’s first volley should they fire.

The ROK Soldier is far superior to the DPRK Soldier in many ways. Numerical superiority for the DPRK doesn’t mean much when they are hungry, demoralized, abused and relying on equipment that was current in the 1980s. ROK Marines are
serious ass-kickers as are the ROK Airborne and Special Forces.

The DPRK has the same plan as Saddam had: go underground after losing the conventional fight and resist with guerilla warfare and armed insurgency.

The first Korean War the ROK had zero tanks and no Air Force and yet with a little US and UN assistance, they beat back the far superior and Soviet-backed DPRK all the way to the Chinese border in a just a few weeks. It was only when the Chinese with their masses of “human wave” attacks intervened that the DPRK was able to even the odds. Unless China gets involved again in a very literal,
tactical, operational way, a war with the DPRK would end in 30 days or less.

However, Seoul will be greatly damaged and there may be mass casualty situations in the the ROK due to DPRK artillery and chemical weapons. There will also be
terrorist attacks and DPRK special forces attacking the southern part of the peninsula.

The real problems will begin when we try to rebuild the former DPRK and hopefully reunite the two Koreas as one. The people have been lied to, starved, abused and brainwashed for 60 years. They have never known freedom or
self-government. They have no idea how the rest of the world lives. It will take a long time to stabilize and rebuild the paranoid population of North Korea and hopefully China will not interfere with the rebuilding efforts. A reunited democratic, capitalist Korean peninsula will pose a threat to China economically
and militarily.

Washington, DC – North Korea was met with heavy criticism from the international community today, after firing another missile from its coast line. In a Whitehouse press conference US President Barack Obama said he had “almost had it up to here” and …

Exactly! Which is why a SMART President would be quietly massing aircraft carriers within bombing range of North Korea, ready to bomb those artillery pieces as soon as the first shell is fired, to minimize the damage to Seoul. We still have about 35,000 troops on the border between the Koreas, ready to invade if needed, but we can’t (or shouldn’t) PROVOKE a new Korean war, but we need to be ready to strike quickly if needed, to protect the South.

But it’s not at all clear that there’s an adult in the White House.

Steve Z on May 27, 2009 at 10:41 AM

Not quite. Although it would be a good idea to have the naval bases down south prep the carriers, we don’t need to have them in battle formation.

They have artillery pointed at us, but we have artillery right across that river pointed at them too, ours is much better, we have much more ammunition, many more soldiers on the ground ready to fight.

You’re right, Seoul is in artillery range. But their best artillery guns are right across the river from ours. So think, they have their best soldiers on the JSA, they pull 24 hour shifts, they’re poorly trained and have NEVER seen a second of combat. They have outdated equipment that is both inaccurate, and causes minimal damage at best. We have fresh soldiers manning those guns every 4 hours, none of our soldiers are hungry, our soldiers have likely seen combat, and have the best training in the world, and our guns are deadly accurate, and cause mass damage when they pound ground.

Trust me, aside from the nuke, we don’t have much to worry about. This pissant country will burn in a matter of 72 hours after the war starts. Kim Jong Il will be caught or killed in a week.

That ROK army is a hardcore set of soldiers. I had the pleasure of serving with a few Katusa’s, and observed their basic training and advanced training. These guys are nothing to smirk at. They are born again hard soldiers that love their country and would turn into the bloodthirsty warriors that they need to be if that little penis-envy faggot up north so much as shoots a wad of snot across that DMZ. They could demolish the north in a matter of days without our help. Hours with.

5 bucks says every soldier, sailor, and marine are on alert in South Korea right now. Let’s just pray that THIS alert isn’t wasted like the one for the first nuke he blew up underground, or the one for when he decided to shoot rockets at Japan.

I’m inclined to let S. Korea firmly and forcefully take the lead in handling N.Korea themselves.

JiangxiDad on May 27, 2009 at 4:29 PM

I don’t disagree with that sentiment at all. Just don’t want to paint the Asian people in general with such a wide brush as some who don’t know better and don’t know you might do. Japan is getting some of the same problems from the left as well.

genso on May 27, 2009 at 4:22 PM

Hey. You know S. Korea seems to be somewhat unusual among Asian countries because it’s so affluent, and the lifestyle is so western. The population is so accustomed to consumer goods, plastic surgery, and other aspects of what is usually thought of as living the good life in the western sense. That makes them ripe for so many of the western pathologies as well–pleasure before business, excess, modern liberalism. So from what i can tell, they have a lefty problem that’s pretty huge–like ours. So, I guess it might be fairer to say that they’re anti-American insofar as they share the views of the American left–the US is often the cause of problems, rather than part of the solution. In any case, although it’s not a popular opinion, I’m inclined to let S. Korea firmly and forcefully take the lead in handling N.Korea themselves.

The anti-American sentiment among other segments of the population there is well-known.

JiangxiDad on May 27, 2009 at 4:05 PM

JD….I think they have a silent majority there as we do here. Yes, a lot of anti-American rhetoric shown in the news….kind of like they show the Code Pink and ACORN protests here. I don’t think it is a prevalent attitude among the population.

South Korea hates the US? Now I know you’re a Commie Pinko.

BobMbx on May 27, 2009 at 3:53 PM

I think it’s fair to say that usually, only those old enough to actively remember the Korean war have reliably warm feelings towards the US. The anti-American sentiment among other segments of the population there is well-known.

Barry is shuckin’ and jivin’ his way to World War 3.

Our system is no longer stable, our government is corrupted, so something new will take its place, and should. It may arrive via war, yes, or another way. Future historians will probably see in our decline the familiar civilizational exhaustion which marked the end of former regimes. The fact that so few see it coming only increases its likelihood in my mind, for it implies that no one is minding the store. There’s never a good time for things to fall apart, but fall apart they must. So why not now?

First of all, a spoiled rotten South Korea hates us almost as much as the North does and it is not certain how effectively its troops will fight. This would leave America to fight the brunt of a ground war against the huge 1.2 million man North Korean Army-(larger than our own) and man-for-man the best fighting force in Asia.

MaiDee on May 27, 2009 at 3:31 PM

Apparently the electricity is still on in the DPRK Ministry of Magical Statements. What are you, some sort of Lil Kim propagandist?

Take a hike. Man-for-man, the best fighting force in Asia?

hahahahahahahahaha!

South Korea hates the US? Now I know you’re a Commie Pinko.

Many have said that North Korea is just “testing” a new president with a tour-de-force in weaponry. And maybe to hit us for a few Care packages and “concessions”.They could be right. But what if they’re not? If Kim tweaks BHO and Obama takes no forceful action, Kim may discover what many of us already know, that a pussy lives in the White House instead of a man.

If Kim is emboldened enough to conventionally attack South Korea with an actual invasion, what would we do? Especially since he now has nukes as his ace in the hole.

First of all, a spoiled rotten South Korea hates us almost as much as the North does and it is not certain how effectively its troops will fight. This would leave America to fight the brunt of a ground war against the huge 1.2 million man North Korean Army-(larger than our own) and man-for-man the best fighting force in Asia.

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia is taking security measures as a precaution against the possibility tension over North Korea could escalate into nuclear war, news agencies quoted officials as saying on Wednesday.

Frankly, we should pull out troops out and let the rest of the world deal with their own regional problems. We police the world for everyone and they don’t appreciate us for crap. Let them figure out their own problems, we certainly have enough of our own that aren’t being solved because we have to hold everyone elses hands through life.

thphilli on May 27, 2009 at 2:10 PM

I can’t count the number of times I have had this thought. Although the older I get, the less appealing it becomes. Here’s why: I like to work. I drive to work. 1 week after we “Close”, there’s either no gas to buy, or it’s so expensive I can’t afford it. I lose my job. Then what?

And, I’ve grown accustomed to eating strawberrys in February. Please, don’t take that away.