strangelet on May 19, 2009 at 12:51 AM

Even if it is an outlier, it doesn’t change your fringe-dweller status. Sorry.

Steve Z on May 19, 2009 at 9:51 AM

TPM was able to claim that because they used an “aggregate” which is like an average for the year, instead of focusing on the most recent results.

Yup. Republicans don’t act conservative, get voted out, people remember how much Democrats suck, Republicans get voted back in.
It’s the cycle of political life.

Emily M. on May 18, 2009 at 6:37 PM

This sounds about right. It’s time to prepare for a new 1994 in 2010. But there has to be a plan–a new Contract With America, not just a “change from Obama”. Who is thinking about such a plan, and who will run on it?

In 2001, voters were 33% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 34% independent, with a Republican edge of 47%-46% after leaners were pushed. But now, it’s 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 37% independents, with a huge Democratic advantage of 52%-37% with leaners.

Buy Danish on May 18, 2009 at 7:45 PM

The recent Gallup results are either crazy or showing us the way back. If party identification with leaners are 52% D – 37% R, yet voters are pro-life 51% and pro-choice 45%, either Gallup’s sampling methods are suspect, or Republicans need to jump on the pro-life bandwagon.

Still, it looks like the Democrats have handed us the issues to run on in 2010 with their reckless spending and quadrupling the deficit. Our candidates need to stress spending cuts, REAL tax cuts, domestic energy development, and a “speak softly and carry a big stick” in a dangerous world.

But we’ve gotta give Bill Clinton credit.

It’s the economy, stupid!

Keeping with that theme…I’ve got a few things I’d like Mr Steele (and those who care to read this) to know about me, your average conservative who’s still registered “Republican”, but has given serious thought in the last couple of years to changing party affiliation…

To put it simply – I’m tired of the litmus tests. The numerous “factions” within the party have gotten so backed up into their own corners, I don’t think they see it. But, not to worry, because I’m damn sure going to explain it. I’ll only touch on the two “wings” of the GOP that I think need to hear what I have to say.

[b]The so-called “social conservatives”[/b] – staunch Republicans and faithful to the end. They are an asset to the party, no question about it. But, when they demand that fellow Repubs and candidates adhere exactly, without question, to what [b][i]they[/i][/b] feel are the most important issues of our time (religion, abortion, same-sex marriage, values), they are basically admitting that they want a party of think-alike “bots”. Well – time to wake up kiddies…It’s never been that way, and is never going to be that way. For example, for a fellow Republican to insinuate that I am not “Christian enough” because I didn’t find Mike Huckabee a politically viable candidate for the GOP ticket,…Well, that’s the kind of thing I’m talking about. This crap has to end, or the party will never come together again.

[b]The so-called “moderates”[/b] – They too can be an asset to the party, because (at least every now and then) they find something worthy about conservatism that they like, and they vote for the GOP candidate. But, they lack gumption…backbone…and determination to stick to a solid set of political beliefs. These folks tend to tell the rest of us that we’re too “stiff” – we’re too “rigid” – and that there never seems to be room for a “middle-ground”. They probably have a point, but, here’s the thing….EITHER YOU’RE PRO CORE CONSERVATIVE IDEALS, OR YOU’RE NOT. It’s that simple. One does not advance conservatism, or the GOP, by embracing the ideals and stances of your political opposition, all in the name of getting more members into the party. Lower taxes, less government, more individual freedom…Those have been core political ideals within the party, and to suggest that it’s ok to “waffle” on those things and [i]still[/i] be a conservative Republican…is simply wrong. Make up your minds. Ante up, or cash out.

Most of all – I’m sick of of a few key things that I must now detail:

*Being told that being conservative means you must also behave a certain way, when it comes to religion. The last time I checked, there was this thing called “freedom OF religion” in this country, and it is MY choice as to whether I wear a cross around my neck or not. It is MY choice as to whether I speak 24/7 about my religious beliefs, or not. It is MY choice as to how I use my religious beliefs to gauge potential political candidates…or not. Being politically conservative means alot of things, but I’m tired of being told that being politically conservative comes with a mandatory list of religious methodology that one must follow, if they are to be accepted as “conservative” or “Christian enough” to even be considered “conservative”. To suggest that a person must believe a certain way when it comes to religion, all because they are politically conservative…Isn’t smart. This is where that “individual freedom” comes in. Respect it, or it will eventually become an albatross around your neck.

*Being told that I’m a “jew lover”, and don’t love my own country, because I believe we must maintain our alliance with Israel. The people who say things like this need a swift kick in the ass, as far as I’m concerned. Take a look at the middle east, and name for me all the countries we can call “ally”. And don’t give me the “U.S.S. Liberty”/”Powerful Jew Lobby” BS. There are other countries besides Israel who’ve done as much, or more, and I find it funny we never hear you people standing up and crying about [i]that[/i] when it happens. It’s always all about Israel and the Jews. Get a life…and put down the copy of “Mein Kampf”.

*Being told that I must “give a little” when it comes to core conservative ideals. No, I don’t have to “give a little”!
I don’t find that embracing the political opposition’s ideals or stances does anything to further the conservative movement or cause. It only makes things politically “murky” and indistinguishable. That creates confusion, and we have enough of that already. Pardon me for having a backbone and sticking to those core ideals. I don’t plan on waivering on those things, ever, and if it means that I re-register as “Libertarian” or “Independent”, then so be it. My advice to these folks – educate yourself on what conservatism TRULY is, and go from there. Start fresh, because you’re thinking as been muddied by a liberal media hell-bent on brainwashing you.

In the end,….Individualism seems to have flown out the window within the GOP. They seem not to respect the fact that [b]PEOPLE[/b] are “endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights….Not [i]“political parties”[/i] are “endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights”.

My advice to the party as a whole? Decide whether you still believe in the core conservative ideals (lower taxes, less government, more individual freedom).
If you do, make [i]those things[/i] the only litmus test that matters, because in the end, those things that most so-called “moderates” want to be flexible on and the things that most so-called “social conservatives” believe are more important would ALL fall under the “individual freedom” category. In my book, that’s how it should be.

Published poll responses a month later, and still no sign of Obama’s economic stimulus, only the dark clouds of Soros’ Mordor overhead and higher taxes to pay for enslavement.

maverick muse on May 18, 2009 at 6:48 PM

Maybe Sarah Palin is our Arwen. But who is our Aragorn?

First up, the partisan composition of the Gallup poll sample drew some attention–not surprisingly, since Gallup itself suggested that the “big shift” on abortion was occurring almost entirely among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Charles Franklin at pollster.com made this discovery and observation:

The latest Gallup (5/7-10/09) poll has party identification tied at 32-32 and caused an immediate howl of “outlier!” in the comments at Pollster.com. In this case, the howl is justified. Compared to all recent Gallup polls (so we compare apples to apples) this latest stands out quite a bit from the rest.

Yup. Republicans don’t act conservative, get voted out, people remember how much Democrats suck, Republicans get voted back in.
It’s the cycle of political life.

Emily M. on May 18, 2009 at 6:37 PM

LOL, that’s true.

Dems are going to try to push through cap and trade and health care fast. The window is closing.

Mark1971 on May 18, 2009 at 6:27 PM

At which point their names will be mud.

This certainly tests the “you can’t beat something with nothing” theory, because I have yet to see the GOP do something positive to win new voters. But I’m seeing a shinola-load of stuff being done by Obama and the democrats that are going to drive away many who voted for them in ‘08.

thirteen28 on May 18, 2009 at 6:23 PM

Great point, the GOP seems to be ‘pulling up even’ due to negatives from the DEMs. Imagine if a real, conservative leader stood up now and clearly articulated the basic tenets of Conservatism. We desperately need that person to emerge, whether from within or outside the Republican Party.

Conservatives have a message to spread, and we no longer have George W Bush making us look like hypocrites when we talk about it. And, as Maggie Thatcher said, the facts of life are conservative. Everything that’s happening from Pakistan to South Bend is making the American people wish a grown-up was in charge.

Hmmm. For the first time since 2005. I think there are two parts comprising party preference: ideology and the estimate of how effective that party is at actual governance. The two are interrelated and bleed into each other — partisans……

I’ll get excited when Republican leaders actually say/do something conservative and more than 20% of the population approves. Until then, the plans to move out of country in 2010 continue.

The GOP is the default party of America in recent history. Give it time. Once people really realize what Democrats are all about they’ll come around. There are signs of that already.

A new analysis by Gallup, compiled from their national polling done all this year, shows just how extensive the Republican Party’s drop in voter self-identification has been, with decreases in nearly every demographic…

In 2001, voters were 33% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 34% independent, with a Republican edge of 47%-46% after leaners were pushed. But now, it’s 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 37% independents, with a huge Democratic advantage of 52%-37% with leaners.