Israel promises Obama: We won’t hit Iran without “coordinating” with you
posted at 8:14 pm on May 14, 2009 by Allahpundit
By “coordinating” I assume they mean “without giving you a heads up.” If it means they’ll wait until they have The One’s permission, then, er, they’re going to be waiting a very long time.
During a trip to Jerusalem earlier this week, CIA chief Leon Panetta informed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that U.S. President Barack Obama demanded that Israel not launch a surprise attack on Iran. The message expressed concern that Israel would cause an escalation in the region and undermine Obama’s efforts to improve relations with Tehran.
However, the content was nothing new: The Bush administration also sent tough messages to Jerusalem a year ago, including a demand that it not strike Iran…
The U.S. expects Israel to coordinate its military actions with Washington, a condition to which Jerusalem has agreed due to its dependence on U.S. aid. Senior officials in the Bush administration testified to Congress that Israel had consulted them before deciding on its 2007 air strike on an alleged Syrian nuclear reactor. They said Israel had explained that it considered the Syrian project an existential threat and therefore had to act.
Look at it this way: If they say “we have to act” and The One says no, what do they lose by defying him and attacking anyway? The Democrats aren’t going to risk Jewish votes by cutting off Israel’s foreign aid as punishment, and if Iran’s nuke program is really so far gone that Netanyahu feels he has to try something desperate to stop it, tensions with the U.S. in the aftermath will be the least of Israel’s worries. The one real piece of leverage Obama has, I think, is his reputation (fair or not) for Palestinian sympathies. If Israel acts against his wishes, that would give him every excuse to push harder on Abbas’s behalf during peace talks.
For what it’s worth, and it’s probably worth nothing, Debkafile claims Panetta showed Netanyahu a U.S. intel assessment estimating that Iran’s nuclear defenses are weaker than thought and that they wouldn’t hit back hard in retaliation. Israel was, allegedly, unpersuaded.
Blowback
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Ready…Fire….Aim!
belad on May 14, 2009 at 8:16 PM
As soon as the bomb bay doors open, we’ll text you.
jgapinoy on May 14, 2009 at 8:17 PM
Kinda don’t believe it… For some reason, I think Israel will do what they have to with or without Obama’s permission.
mjk on May 14, 2009 at 8:17 PM
When they say “coordinate” I hope that means they’ll coordinate the diplomatic ‘fallout’ at the UN and ‘world media’
Lance Murdock on May 14, 2009 at 8:19 PM
There’s that 3 a.m. phone call…
“Barry, just wanted to tell you that the IDAF is on the return leg from Iran…so we’ve coordinated, right? G’night and Shalom.”
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:19 PM
Be careful how you “coordinate”, Bibi. I wouldn’t put it past this Administration to tip off the Iranians…
(Actually, it would be pretty funny for Israel to tell the US (and only the US) that the strike was imminent, and then do nothing – just to see if the Iranians went on alert after the US was informed.)
Realist on May 14, 2009 at 8:20 PM
Except that Americans will still side with Israel in that scenario. And even if they disagree at the moment, they’ll be back to siding with Israel by the time the election rolls around. How much does Obama want to be slammed over the head with a figurative 2×4 by Republicans for abandoning Israel for Palestine? Especially considering Obama’s history.
amerpundit on May 14, 2009 at 8:21 PM
I still can’t believe that.
WisCon on May 14, 2009 at 8:21 PM
If I was Israel I would attack and not tell Obama.
William Amos on May 14, 2009 at 8:21 PM
I wouldn’t put it past someone in the Obama admninistration (Samantha Power or James Jones) to leak it to Iran that the Israelies were on their way.
Wethal on May 14, 2009 at 8:22 PM
lets see the best intelligence agency in the world, the mossad, and they would believe the CIA of VALERIE PLAME and friends????
right….
right4life on May 14, 2009 at 8:22 PM
Just enough time for Barry to call the relatives…
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Change I Can Believe In?
orfannkyl on May 14, 2009 at 8:23 PM
Given the level of Israeli and Pakistani defense cooperation over the years, perhaps this Israeli raid on Iran could work out…a number of airfields on the Pakistan side of Iran for the IDAF to use should they need to make a one-way dash into Iran and not have to engage in in-run and out-run air activities over the Gulf. Israel has been doing some strange air exercises out over the Med since last Fall.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:25 PM
no doubt, they’d be a fool to tell the CIA..apparently the russians warned the iranians about an impending attack by israel to destroy their air force…and iran cancelled an air show…
wonder if israel told us, and we told the russians, or, more likely, the russians have the CIA infiltrated through and through…who knows?
right4life on May 14, 2009 at 8:25 PM
T
If Israel knocks Iran on it’s ass, I think “peace talks” will go much quicker and smoother. Popping Iran could be the key to solving a LOT of problems.
Guardian on May 14, 2009 at 8:25 PM
that is your first mistake
Don’t count on us right now
400lb Gorilla on May 14, 2009 at 8:25 PM
…………… I wonder what a pound of radio active ash is worth in peace talks these days?
Seven Percent Solution on May 14, 2009 at 8:27 PM
Heh… let’s put that in terms of Wanda Sykes’ jokes…
+infinity…
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 8:28 PM
Since Iran is the real power behind Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas, wouldn’t it’s destruction pretty much neutralize these groups?
Guardian on May 14, 2009 at 8:28 PM
Hitting Saddam got Ghadafi to play with us. Got Syria to (for a short time) get their foot off the neck of the Lebanese as well. If Iran is hit, and hard, the Palestinians will be more apt to want to talk real terms than not…and with Egypt applying a little pressure this could have some nice results all around. A strong horse is a strong horse.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:29 PM
That’s what I’m thinking.
What’s the downside to obliterating Iran again?
Guardian on May 14, 2009 at 8:31 PM
Bibi will tweet the attack in progress to Ogabe.
daesleeper on May 14, 2009 at 8:32 PM
Yeah, it reads like “Joint Chiefs Chairman Woody Allen”
Patrick S on May 14, 2009 at 8:32 PM
Israel to Obama: “we’ll let you know fifteen seconds before launch”
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 8:33 PM
Fewer Ogabe donors…
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 8:34 PM
They know Gibbs couldn’t contain his grief and would be forced to call up Kwef…
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 8:34 PM
Where’s the downside to that? :-)
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:35 PM
Don’t the need Iraqi airspace to do it? Iraqi airspace is still under our control.
Marc01 on May 14, 2009 at 8:36 PM
they need
Marc01 on May 14, 2009 at 8:36 PM
Darn it AP I just wanted to say to the Karl post you linked:
ROVE YOU MAGNIFICENT BASTARD!
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 8:36 PM
they “need Iraqi airspace” if they use planes…
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 8:37 PM
Obama wants Netanyahu to fail. Alert the media and Wanda Sykes.
econavenger on May 14, 2009 at 8:38 PM
Iran is much stronger militarily than Iraq was five years ago.
Iran has a large minority of pro-Americans who don’t hate Israel but would if Israel attacked.
So it’s not a slam dunk.
jgapinoy on May 14, 2009 at 8:38 PM
*sigh*
When will it be OK to hope Wanda chokes on an Israeli Flag?
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 8:39 PM
Allah, when you reference Debkafile, you should make it clear that it’s more or less a conspiracy theory website that is extremely unreliable. I know you said that it’s probably worth nothing, but it would be helpful for those who don’t know to explain why. It’s not anything like other news outlets that are generally cited on here, which are generally much more reliable.
It’s just an Israeli couple that reports rumors (usually unsourced). Even they don’t claim that 100% of their reporting is true, and it seems like their actual hit rate is quite low.
tneloms on May 14, 2009 at 8:40 PM
OK, so could Israel focus more on Syria? No concessions to the North!
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 8:40 PM
I hope Israel means “coordinating” in the same manner as Obama “coordinates” with Republicans!!
landlines on May 14, 2009 at 8:44 PM
Bombs released, then we text you.
Sapwolf on May 14, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Obama: “What the Hell! You said you’d call me first.”
Netanyahu: “I did! I got your Voicemail. Check your messages.”
TheBigOldDog on May 14, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Ah, yes, those US intel assesments of Iranian nuclear activities have been sooooo accurate, haven’t they. Tend to vary on who’s in the White House and who is PM of Israel, too.
Wethal on May 14, 2009 at 8:46 PM
Look at Mombassa and Addis Ababa as a staging area for aerial refueling aircraft should Israel decide to move on Iran. Both nations have cooperation agreements (to include military coordination) with Israel. Going over Jordan and the northern part of Saudi Arabia is the straight line approach, and one that Iran will be expecting, along with the possibility of an air traffic controller making a phone call, as what happened with Malta when we hit Libya, and why the anti-aircraft over Tripoli was active before the first strike craft crossed the beach.
The use of Pakistani airfields in Baluchistan, such as at Gwadar, the closest Pak airfield to the Straits of Hormuz, is possible.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:47 PM
Don’t do it, BiBi!
Hell, you might as well dial up the camel-washers in Tehran and tell ‘em you are coming.
-Dave
Dave R. on May 14, 2009 at 8:48 PM
The gloves are on.
Ugly on May 14, 2009 at 8:48 PM
ROFL!
-Dave
Dave R. on May 14, 2009 at 8:49 PM
thomasaur on May 14, 2009 at 8:50 PM
They should just go ahead and bomb the hell out of Iran..buy off some of the major polling organizations so they show 76% of Americans support their actions and watch Captain Community Organizer go into an ‘Ummm…Ahhh…Let Me Be Perfectly Clear’ overload.
Now that’s a plan.
BigWyo on May 14, 2009 at 8:50 PM
Here is how it will go. As soon as the brave Israeli pilots take off in their American made F-16′s the USA will be notified to back off the jets as they cross Iraq.
FireBlogger on May 14, 2009 at 8:50 PM
LOL!
TheBigOldDog on May 14, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Dude. Iraq didn’t have a military 5 years ago. They barely have one now.
Guardian on May 14, 2009 at 8:52 PM
The jewish vote has nothing to do with israel. that disconnect is huge…they will vote for Obama if he destroyed israel.
tomas on May 14, 2009 at 8:52 PM
Or the Israeli’s pull a Stormin Norman and go around the long way (in flight re-fueling) and sneak in from Iran’s eastern border.
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 8:53 PM
I have an image of Biden in the Oval Office when BiBi calls up… that would go over swell… Joe would run to the phone to dial up MSNBC
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 8:53 PM
Guardian on May 14, 2009 at 8:52 PM
Iraq has a military??
Ugly on May 14, 2009 at 8:53 PM
In 1967 the Israelis gave the US a 35 minute heads up.
Jdripper on May 14, 2009 at 8:53 PM
Put the crack pipe down and back slowly away from it.
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 8:54 PM
You kill all the scientists first…this will flush out where things are being kept and it makes targets much easier.
tomas on May 14, 2009 at 8:55 PM
How did we ever survive? Oh, that was pre-Carter… before we had to pump up the egos of a bunch of squatters…
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 8:56 PM
I wouldn’t if I were Israel—at least not unless I were confident that the mission would succeed even if Iran knew we were coming.
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 8:57 PM
Oooooh… chiiile.
LibTired on May 14, 2009 at 8:59 PM
I wonder if the Pope will have to give Teh One a heads up whenever he laments on the mass-abortions covered by Obamacare…
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 8:59 PM
Too harsh? You know one of his long lost sisters or brothers must be living there.
Upstater85 on May 14, 2009 at 9:00 PM
The Iraqi military under the last years of Saddam was extremely light in air defense weapons…we took them out as soon as they lit up their radars. The present Iraqi military is a light infantry outfit…no armor, and an air force of a few transport aircraft, a handful of liaison aircraft (Piper’s and Cessna’s), a handful of lift choppers and a few Hueys, and no air defense capability.
Iraq is not a roadblock to potential Israeli air ops. The Saudis are. Jordan not so much. A straight line approach to Iran would be foolish, unless this was a scene from Princess Bride and dealing with Iocaine powder.
The IDAF is high on imaginative air ops…and has some very skilled pilots and support capabilities.
A raid from the south, hitting Bandar Abbas and then up the coast and into Iran, or as suggested earlier, a raid from the east, via Baluchistan, is do-able. Less signature that way, less possibility of the Iranians reacting with focus.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 9:03 PM
I can see the Israeli’s giving Barry about 10 seconds ‘heads up’. Only because it would not be a surprise to me for Barry to ‘pass on the info’ to the Iranians as a ‘show of good faith’.
GarandFan on May 14, 2009 at 9:12 PM
If the Israelis attack at 3am D.C. time, they don’t have to worry about anyone answering the White House phone.
Bishop on May 14, 2009 at 9:22 PM
They did not consult Reagan when they took out the last nuclear production plant.
I honestly don’t think they will cordinate (nor should they) with “the one” if they decide to do it again.
F15Mech on May 14, 2009 at 9:24 PM
Yeah, but not before soiling his underwear.
-Dave
Dave R. on May 14, 2009 at 9:24 PM
The Israelis might as just well tell the goat sodomizing Mullahs themselves and eliminate the mediocre middle man.
It’ll be on CNN in minutes and in the New York Times in the a.m.
NoDonkey on May 14, 2009 at 9:25 PM
Hey Israel, after you hit Iran, please drop a nuke into Pakistian, I would really appreciate it…
Your pal – Barack Obama
izoneguy on May 14, 2009 at 9:26 PM
Doh
Please ignoe my last link…better one here
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2295792449224502914
F15Mech on May 14, 2009 at 9:31 PM
Turkey is the best route to get into Iran for an airstrike on the nuke facilities. Saudi Arabia should be held as an option (and IO deception), but going through Turkey solves more problems. Head straight for Tehran with the bulk of the defensive escort, and send a second package down the west side of the country, using the terrain of the Zagros mountains to enable the strikers to pop up on Natanz and Esfahan.
Bushehr is an outlier, no matter how you look at it. I’d use special forces to take it down, myself. If the US hasn’t specifically blessed the mission in advance, the approach profile to Bushehr is where US fighters would be able, 24/7, to warn off or force down an Israeli air package.
J.E. Dyer on May 14, 2009 at 9:47 PM
ROTFLMAO…. Remember what Saddam’s generals said when Stormin Norman caught them with their pants down? You cheated you came in behind us. Hey Iran….. Checked your 6 lately???
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 9:47 PM
There is absolutely no way anything would be coming out of Pakistan. No way, no how. Too much civil unrest there for them to even contemplate that notion at all.
firepilot on May 14, 2009 at 9:49 PM
If it comes to it, and Mr. Obama gets word of it………..
………….. think ‘trip to the burger joint’.
“
My hope is that the true conversations between the IDF and our Military is not being played out on the front page of the New York Times…………
……… the professionals are making sure that our assets are out of the way, and in position for counter strikes all over the globe.
Hopefully, this has been explained to the “child”, and he has been ‘instructed’ on what is takes for a “Sovereign Nation” can do to protect itself……….
Seven Percent Solution on May 14, 2009 at 9:54 PM
Turkey has possibilities, and a fast approach to Teheran. The Russians have beefed up their air defense in the Eastern part of the Black Sea, and I’d have to look at what sort of coordination may be going on between Iran and Russia, and what is the current Iran-Russia air defense doctrine being applied and in what direction.
Turkey (at least at the military/technical level and a bit of intelligence coordination) does have a history of ties with Israel. The Syria raid on the North Korean reactor in part was assisted by Turkey.
Good food for thought there. Thanks for raising the northern approaches possibility.
Getting the US involved seems a non-starter given the bent of this Administration.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 9:56 PM
The Pak military has very good ties with Israel, and Israeli companies are building up the current Pak air forces and also involved in technical assistance in other areas as well…to include upgrading Pak air force airfields across Pakistan.
Pakistan has no love for Iran.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 9:59 PM
Agree – this “Administration” (if you can call this inept band of circus clowns an “Administration”), is bent over, cheeks spread and lubed up with five quarts of KY, just begging the towelheads to “bring it on”.
NoDonkey on May 14, 2009 at 10:07 PM
coldwarrior — you might be interested in the study at this link of the Israelis’ strike problem versus Iran. (Full disclosure: it’s mine. Used to do this for a living. Like you, maybe?)
If Israel has to do this with no outside assistance — only passive quiescence from neighboring nations — the Turkey route poses the fewest problems. The ones it does pose are still pretty tall. It’ll take cast-iron cojones to do this mission. Once Iran has the S-300 at FOC, Israel doesn’t have the force depth to do it at all.
The IAF’s big deadlines, I think, are the Bushehr reactor going critical, and the S-300 coming online. The Gates intel referred to in the Debkafile piece indicates the S-300 is still months (years?) from even IOC in Iran, which is good news. Once that mother’s operational in Iran, the game changes for even a US strike. We’d have to take serious casualties to complete a mission we could probably finish today without any.
Bushehr could conceivably go critical later this year. Iran has already announced the intention to “feed it” with the enriched uranium this summer. My best guess would be that it will go critical no earlier than next year. But the Iranians might surprise us.
J.E. Dyer on May 14, 2009 at 10:12 PM
Mega thanks for the link.
Caught that little self-deprecation in the fourth para… “A career intelligence officer is far too likely to go off on tangents…” Don’t I know ’bout that sort of thing.
What is most aggravating is that time was lost, and Iran, in full view of the world was permitted to advance as far as it has while the Euros, the UN, and US, talked about talking to Iran.
In that period of time lost, Iran has increased the target sets from a few key critical junctures to a now widespread functioning full fuel cycle with far far fewer choke points today than they had 10 years ago.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 10:24 PM
The Israelis would be nuts to say anything to anyone in the Obomber Admin. The Leftists in State and DOJ, if not El Presidente Ochavez himself, would spill the beans to Iran and/or try to interfere.
james23 on May 14, 2009 at 10:27 PM
Obama, Biden, Pelosi, … it’s all like a bad nightmare.
IrishEyes on May 14, 2009 at 10:34 PM
As soon as I saw the headline, that is exactly what crossed my mind! I was going to say “and by ‘cooperating’ I mean, we’ll call you when the missiles are in the air, so you can get to the bathroom before you crap your pants, you girly man”
Queen0fCups on May 14, 2009 at 10:36 PM
Like the man said …
IrishEyes on May 14, 2009 at 10:38 PM
coldwarrior — agreed. It’s all been done in plain sight, with full knowledge and tacit acceptance by the West. Gosh, what previous period of quiescence and appeasement can this possibly be reminding me of? Hmmm. That’s a poser. Maybe I’m asking myself a trick question. I don’t know.
But you’re right. If we had taken action 6, 5, or even 2 years ago, it would have been a smaller problem.
J.E. Dyer on May 14, 2009 at 10:50 PM
“What? What do you mean we attacked without notifying you first? We told Nancy Pelosi. Didn’t she tell you?”
Daggett on May 14, 2009 at 11:38 PM
But, But – we told the CIA – they didn’t pass on the “coordinating plans”?
izoneguy on May 14, 2009 at 11:44 PM
Kill the head of the snake and the snake is dead.
Kill the sugar daddies and the hos go away.
izoneguy on May 14, 2009 at 11:45 PM
Obama is the biggest towelhead of them all.
izoneguy on May 14, 2009 at 11:47 PM
Nobody will have to tell the military anything…you know that “fog of war thing”
izoneguy on May 14, 2009 at 11:49 PM
I know this sounds demented, but I think we are very close to WWIII and I think it would be better to get it underway sooner rather than later. It’s coming. It’s actually already underway. It just hasn’t exploded full-force yet.
The longer B.O. is in charge the weaker we become. It would be better for the crap to hit the fan before B.O. really gets things the way he wants them. We might need to rev up those auto plants to make weaponry. It would be better to do it before they collect too much rust.
Israel striking Iran might be just the ticket. I hope they hit Mecca and Medina while they’re at it. Maybe then the muslims in their midst would act up enough that even the Europeans would grow some balls and do some house cleaning.
deewhybee on May 15, 2009 at 1:15 AM
After the the first wave hits Iranian EWR posts and air fields, 0bama will be the first to know!
Okay, after the second wave hits it’s target packages, 0bama will be the first one to know!
Okay, 0bama’ll watch the whole thing unfold on MSNBC just like the rest of the American left.
Seriously, if you’re taking care of business, why the hell would you EVER tell anyone in the current American government? Those turds can’t even keep OUR secrets secret.
SuperCool on May 15, 2009 at 2:01 AM
That is what I’d do….Then hit them a week later.
Tim Burton on May 15, 2009 at 2:46 AM
My first thought was that if Israel informs the current US administration, they are likely to find Iran waiting for them. As I read the comments, I was surprised, actually no not really, but noticed that several others had the same thought. Here was one particularly good idea:
Be careful how you “coordinate”, Bibi. I wouldn’t put it past this Administration to tip off the Iranians…
(Actually, it would be pretty funny for Israel to tell the US (and only the US) that the strike was imminent, and then do nothing – just to see if the Iranians went on alert after the US was informed.)
Realist on May 14, 2009 at 8:20 PM
Ordinary American on May 15, 2009 at 3:19 AM
Israel can yes mr Onumbnuts to death and do whatever they need to. Frankly, I HOPE they do. They shouldnt wait until those savages have a bomb.
dogsoldier on May 15, 2009 at 6:37 AM
Oh, and I almost forgot. Israel has actual intelligence. I don’t know what you would call what we have. Looks like a political circle jerk.
dogsoldier on May 15, 2009 at 6:39 AM
Of course, if Israel’s deal with Egypt and the Saudis goes through, there will be no need to tell the O anything – since they will not be using Iraqi airspace to get to Iran.
Friendly21 on May 15, 2009 at 7:33 AM
They should have launched during the meeting with Panetta, leaned over, and said, It’s on.
ex-Democrat on May 15, 2009 at 7:37 AM
A dude on a goat with a rag on his head thundering into a mud hut village or Theran yelling
“The JOOOS is commin’”.Hands em a note from boma an pelosi,then turns to the camera and announces he is Borat and you all are on C Span.
Of course Israel will tell us the plan so they can find the tratior’s.
Col.John Wm. Reed on May 15, 2009 at 7:37 AM
I love Israel. Not gonna lie.
&& we all know that they are shrewdly letting O know that he doesn’t matter.
bluelightbrigade on May 15, 2009 at 8:17 AM
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