Fox News: Special ops planning to seize Pakistan’s nukes if things get hairy
posted at 6:45 pm on May 14, 2009 by Allahpundit
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No surprise. Iran, at least, is a modern state with proper chains of military command, notwithstanding their appetite for jihad. It’d be an international nightmare if they got the Bomb but it’s not impossible that they’d behave rationally. If the Taliban rolls into Islamabad and grabs Pakistan’s nukes, there’ll be nothing to check them except the whim of whichever cavemen warlords and remnants of the Pakistani military happen to possess the actual devices. Under the circumstances, it’s not hard to see why India might try a preemptive strike. Which means the success of a U.S. operation to grab the nukes first and disable them might be the only thing standing between that region and a nuclear exchange. Think happy thoughts.
JSOC is the military’s chief terrorists hunting squad and has units now operating in Afghanistan on Pakistan’s western border. But a secondary mission is to secure foreign nuclear arsenals — a role for which JSOC operatives have trained in Nevada…
“Small units could seize them, disable them and then centralize them in a secure location,” the source said…
What makes the Pakistan mission especially difficult is that the military has its missiles on Soviet-style mobile launchers and rail lines. U.S. intelligence agencies, using satellite photos and communication intercepts, is constantly monitoring their whereabouts. Other warheads are kept in storage. U.S. technical experts have visited Pakistan to advise the government on how to maintain and protect its arsenal.
Also, there are rogue elements inside Pakistan’s military and intelligence service who could quickly side with the extremists and make JSOC’s mission all the more difficult.
“Its relatively easy to track rail-mounted ones with satellites,” said the intelligence source. “Truck- mounted are more difficult. However, they are all relatively close to the capital in areas that the government firmly controls so we don’t have to look to far.”
It’s similar to a strike on Iran’s reactors, except in this case if it doesn’t work, you risk having boots on the ground stranded behind enemy lines. I raised this point in a previous post a few weeks ago but it’s worth asking again: Why would the Taliban want to take over Pakistan, exactly? Like Hezbollah, they’ve got a good thing going with their current arrangement as a state within a state. They get to plot attacks on Afghanistan and run things shari’a style in their part of the country, and meanwhile a secular-ish government remains in place to take care of mundane civic business. If they take over, not only does that mundane business become their business but they’re going to have a war with India (and America?) on their hands sooner rather than later. Better to just keep absorbing territory where they can and leave Islamabad alone as an insurance policy. Or am I giving them too much credit in thinking they might behave strategically?
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with Paki help it *might* work it would NOT be pretty and I do sincerely fear the donks would blanche at the type of actions it would take….
getting OBL was NEVER the benchmark for success or as easy as Barry and Nan act like it is elseways Me$$iah has had a third of year and no OBL-why?
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 7:48 PM
Nukes in the hands of rogues versus nukes in the hands of a rogue state? Acquiescing to either is insanity. The 12th Iman is just itching to return to reign over post-apocalypse Earth, and the Iranians are thrilled at the prospect of arranging that global disaster regardless of the consequences to their little slice of heaven. Both groups would liberate weapons to be infiltrated into the West. We have seen the panic over the swine flu, can you imagine the panic over the likelihood, nay, the surety, that there are nukes wandering about the world looking for a good crisis to create?
Maquis on May 14, 2009 at 7:48 PM
yeah I remember a few years ago, bush leaning on both of them stop war…I was wondering why bother? let em fight…it would get rid of the pakistan, taliban, and al-qaeda problem for us….
right4life on May 14, 2009 at 7:49 PM
True or not, why would a “U.S. intelligence source” feel compelled to share this?
Send_Me on May 14, 2009 at 7:49 PM
No argument there at all. There are competing interests across the Islamic world. The Indonesians and malays will not tolerate an Iran ruling over them, but right now they can do little about it. Egypt? Not likely to stand by and let Iran call the shots. The Gulf States? Money. Therein lies their interests. Iran is already screwing around in that region. So, there is national interests and there are also sectarian interests. But, should a new caliphate come around, look for a huge portion of the world to step back in time for quite a long time, while the rest of the world once again moves right on past them.
Having two unifying factors…the Great Satan [us] and the Little Satan {Israel] works to make placid the otherwise roiling waters of the Islamic world….until they get the chance to kill off each other.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 7:49 PM
In a word …YES!
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 7:50 PM
ohhhhhhhh come on..
bottom line is this is a story put out by Barrybots to lay claim that everything is under control.
“We got it! We got it!”
Limerick on May 14, 2009 at 7:51 PM
There is no reason to worry about rogue nuclear missile launchers. We have the technology to shoot them out of the sky. Oh wait, I forgot. The administration announced cutbacks to those programs the day after North Korea tested a long range missile.
Resolute on May 14, 2009 at 7:55 PM
But without inside information we might not know until it’s too late whether or not we got them all.
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 8:00 PM
Why is Fox News broadcasting this to our enemies?
If it was the NY Slimes or the LAtrines, everyone here would be angry at them, & rightly so.
jgapinoy on May 14, 2009 at 8:01 PM
Every breath you take, every move you make… I’ll be watching you. That’s police talk. Trust me – I know what I’m doing!
- Sledge Hammer
Maxwell Smart: I think it’s only fair to warn you, this facility is surrounded by a highly trained team of 130 black op snipers.
Siegfried: I don’t believe you.
Maxwell Smart: Would you believe 2 dozen Delta Force commandos?
Siegfried: No.
Maxwell Smart: How about Chuck Norris with a BB gun?
MB4 on May 14, 2009 at 8:02 PM
yeah I was reading an interesting article on DEBKA.com about netanyahu talking to mubarak about an anti-iranian alliance….curiouser and curiouser…
Turkey was the last caliphate, the ottoman-turk empire…but they earned it…and its gonna be tough in this day and age to unify the muslim world…unless the MAHDI comes on the scene…
right4life on May 14, 2009 at 8:03 PM
Well, that’s a sucker punch to the gonads.
- Maxwell Smart
MB4 on May 14, 2009 at 8:06 PM
Iran obtaining nuclear weapons is a very bad turn of events. But the current regime does have some sort of control structure, knows where its capabilities stand vs. the US, and just might suddenly become much less. Further, there is good reason to believe that the current Iranian design is a marginally-functional-and-way-too-large device, like the NK and Pakistani devices, and that a set of improbable-industrial-events / road-accidents / air-strikes can disable the Iranian effort. I put some faith in the Iranian opposition, today, but very little after air strikes.
There’s a report concerning Hassan Nasrallah, Chief Hezballah bad-boy from late-2006-early 2007, wherein Nasrallah expresses complete surprise at the Israeli reaction to Hezballah’s kidnapping of 2 Israeli soldiers in 2006. The way the participants speak, it sounds as though they are children intellectually. Nasrallah indicates that he asked no one for permission to kidnap the soldiers, but had anyone said anything, he would’ve stopped the operation. More importantly, Nasrallah seems completely unable to grasp the fact that the kidnapping would lead the Israelis to attack; he actually says this, and more.
But Nasrallah got a good spanking in 2006, and likely realizes that he is lucky to be alive. Notice how Nasrallah mostly talks tough and spends Iranian money building up his forces. Hasrallah has had time to see the power of the modern world, and has a much better grasp of his power vs. Israel, and what happens when he pokes Israel, than he did in 2005.
The Taliban lives in a remote and underdeveloped part of the world. They are much less advanced than Hezballah, in just about every way; they’re still “tribal”, and in the older meaning(s) of the word. There is no clear internal opposition to the Taliban, only other warlords and big-men. While the Taliban always see defeat when fighting the US, they are experiencing only a small, very surgical effort. Their grasp of modern reality is low.
Obtaining nuclear weapons may seem like a magic talisman (Pakistan, NK, Iran) but for the Taliban it’s more like a chimpanzee with a grenade: if it can’t be thrown accurately, and only when needed, it’s a liability.
.
All this being said, there is some value in letting the Taliban destabilize the Pakistani government sufficiently: it gives us a legitimate reason to go in to Pakistan, and remove all nuclear weapons and people who know how to make these weapons (one way or another).
I’d rather not do things this way, but we seem to have fewer and fewer options.
Arbalest on May 14, 2009 at 8:06 PM
Omar Suleiman, Mubarak’s right hand, and head of Egyptian intelligence, has been talking to the Israelis on a number of items for years. Curiouser and curiouser…? No. Pragmatic.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:08 PM
You have no clout
You better not try
You better watch out, I’m telling you why.
Twelfth Imam is coming to town
A-Bomb is on list
I’ll use more than twice
Good Muslims who die
Will go to paradise
Twelfth Imam is coming to town
He knows if you’re a Christian
He knows if you’re a Jew
He knows if you’re an in-fi-del
He’s told me what to do
So….You have no clout
You better not try, I’m telling you why.
Twelfth Imam is coming to town
Twelfth Imam is coming to town
Aleph on May 14, 2009 at 8:08 PM
Normally I would agree but Obama isn’t the right President for the job.
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 8:10 PM
Applies to any situation, really.
Professor Blather on May 14, 2009 at 8:15 PM
We should send CIA and SPECWAR in there now dressed as Taliban. Take the nukes … leave no witnesses … and then fire them at Iran.
Blame it on the Taliban.
I’m double-dog deadly serious. Solves sooooo many problems for us to do that.
HondaV65 on May 14, 2009 at 8:17 PM
If the Pakistani military under Kiyani or Kidwai have already secured the nukes {moved them} I’d take a small wager that they’d be moved to somewhere near Dimona and not to the US. Much more palatable that way, should word get out that they were moved to prevent the Taliban from getting to them. India would be more likely to let that sort of thing slide as well. Such would not impact the Pakistani-US-India relationship as much as the US “protecting” Pakistan an enemy of India by moving the nukes rather than destroying them in place.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:18 PM
You sound like a Pentagon planner, if not it’s compliment, I think…
If you are than you don’t know the enemy…
Face it…If they can get their hands on any of those nukes, they will move them out of the area before India makes Islamabad a smoldering radioactive hole… and then, they WILL use them…
Don’t anybody delude yourselves …This is rapidly spiraling out of control…
You have to ask yourself…why did they leak the plan to cover the nukes?????
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 8:19 PM
thats a good one!!
right4life on May 14, 2009 at 8:19 PM
pretty spot on post there AP. Our main problem is we don’t know how many they have or where they all are. If it doesn’t happen soon, they’ll be churning out many more since they built a new facility with all the aid we’ve been sending them.
ThackerAgency on May 14, 2009 at 8:25 PM
Probably to help alleviate India’s concerns. If I were India I’d be preparing to enact plan B mentioned above, and I wouldn’t want to risk waiting until it’s too late.
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 8:30 PM
…And I wouldn’t place much faith in Obama, either.
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 8:32 PM
Wonder what happened to Musharaf’s working-level Pak-India coordinating committee he set up a few years back? So long as India is on board…but if they are kept out of the loop as the black turbans descend on Islamabad, it could get dicey.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:32 PM
Want my happy thoughts AP??? 5 mile tall mushrooms growing over Pakistan… That’s my happy thoughts…
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 8:33 PM
If you want to deny the Taliban those weapons, here’s what you do:
The weapons are stored in two or more parts. First get your hands on the detonators/controllers. Pile them up, mix well with HE, and detonate.
If the explosive charges that initiate the chain reaction are stored with the fissile parts (likely, the geometry is super, super tricky) pull them off, put them in a hole with plenty of nice, fresh HE, and detonate.
Then get the fissile parts out, if you can. Be careful that you don’t move them too close together or they may start to react. If you can’t get them out, blow up one of them to create radioactive contamination so the Taliban has to use suicide mechanics to get at them, and use whatever high-altitude radiological detection magic we have to track the stuff.
njcommuter on May 14, 2009 at 8:33 PM
FloatingRock,
Agreed…
I would bet India is already on alert and prepping to fuel up the birds…
Anybody have a link that may indicate that? I can’t find one…
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 8:35 PM
How ‘hairy’ does it have to get before we consider it “hairy”?
Hmmm. and why is it called ‘hairy’?
Now I’ll be up all night wondering :o/
cntrlfrk on May 14, 2009 at 8:37 PM
it ain’t Hairy until Michelle says it’s Hairy
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 8:39 PM
I’ll ask again, because I really want to know:
Why is Fox News broadcasting this to our enemies?
If it was the NY Slimes or the LAtrines, everyone here would be angry at them, & rightly so.
jgapinoy on May 14, 2009 at 8:40 PM
It’s all just a distraction, folks, to take our minds off the problems of the day.
I don’t think that the troglodytes would use the nukes. Their interest lies in conflict, not radiation.
OldEnglish on May 14, 2009 at 8:43 PM
I believe, as do others, that it was planted, leaked, for reasons stated above…quitE plausable…
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 8:43 PM
Good question, my best guess, psyops….
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 8:43 PM
My guess is it was released for public consumption inside India. Otherwise they’d just inform the Indian government privately, and probably did some time ago.
You have a valid point, though, that it could harm our interests, but I suspect they felt it was more important to slow any potential reaction by India if things devolve.
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 8:46 PM
“If”? If they get hairy? What is it now?
ronsfi on May 14, 2009 at 8:47 PM
No, their interests are in doing something that will cause Allah to admit them into paradise. Dying as martyrs attempting to kill enemies of Allah/infidels qualifies.
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 8:47 PM
If Iran used thousands of children to clear Iraqi minefields in the Iran-Iraq war…forcing them to walk ahead of the troops so as to become martyrs and get to paradise…or using lightly armed or unarmed teens to create diversionary attacks on the Faw Peninsula during the same war…the Iranians are capable of doing just about anything to include obliterating as much of Iran as they need to in order to kill infidels.
To them, perfectly rational. To the rational world, perfectly irrational.
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 8:54 PM
Dave R. on May 14, 2009 at 8:55 PM
I haven’t read all the comments but would be interested in what Robert Spencer would have to say. Personally, I think you are giving them too much credit.
Zorro on May 14, 2009 at 8:59 PM
I would bet on India doing anything pre-emptively, it’s never happened in history, just not in character. They’re still counting the vote and everything points to a hung parliament with the regional parties and the communists acting as spoilers and making any future government even more ineffectual. At best you can count on intel and logistical support.
Why is no-one mentioning that you doing have to have missile delivery system to carry out a large-scale radioactive attack? “Dirty bombs” were all the rage a few years ago…
Fortunata on May 14, 2009 at 9:06 PM
Bugger…*wouldn’t bet* sorry!
Fortunata on May 14, 2009 at 9:07 PM
google Thugee….
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 9:11 PM
But, surely, as many jihadis as possible would want the chance to earn their place in their heaven?
A nuke strike would get most of them killed before they could earn their stripes, so to speak. (I’m just trying to think like a jihadi, not a rational being).
OldEnglish on May 14, 2009 at 9:16 PM
Fortunala…ahhh…
http://www.yespakistan.com/kashmir/nuke_cap.asp
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 9:16 PM
Somewhere in India, deep inside the Ministry of Defense, outside the Ring Road in New Delhi, an Indian officer is probably asking himself, “What would Kali do?”
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 9:16 PM
From my memory of the PUBLIC discussion after 9/11 it was believed that in the event of Pakistani government being toppled or there was an immediate danger of the nukes into the hands of either the Taliban or Al Qaeda. That a large force of light infantry supporting Special Forces units would be sent to seize the facilites and hold[sic]until the nukes could either be transported to a secure US base or deactived/destroyed in place.
thmsmgnm on May 14, 2009 at 9:18 PM
Well you are failing at irrational thought, perhaps a significant application of personal experience with Muslims in their righteous indignation state of mind would be helpful to your efforts. Not necessarily your health, but your ability to grasp the irrationality of their thought processes, or the significant lack thereof.
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Oh yea!
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 9:23 PM
Ok. They are that nutty! In which case, there is only the one solution, I guess.
Thanks for the info, dorian.
OldEnglish on May 14, 2009 at 9:25 PM
Please continue…
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 9:26 PM
ROTFLMAO…. Actually if my personal experience with non Muslim Indians is any indication of what he is asking himself, it isnt “What would Kali do?”, but more like, “I am vondering how dese Pakistani bastards are liking meeting Lord Shiva tomorrow”…
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 9:26 PM
Why? What would Kali do?
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 9:28 PM
send people pre-emptively in the night to strangle the targets to death with silk cords and coins…..
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Pakistan doesn’t store “the nukes” all in one place, or even fully assembled. This is a valid mission, in the sense of being feasible enough to plan for, but it’s definitely not a gimme.
The best outcome, frankly, would be a military coup in Pakistan, and the restoration of order in the territories by a military government. This has been a common pattern in Pakistan, and one we should not discount as a possibility. Regrettable as it would be from the standpoint of democratic governance, it would still be better than the civilian government having to give up more of Pakistan to the Taliban.
The Taliban gaining more territory, and becoming able to cut NATO off through Pakistan, would signal the end of hope for a positive outcome in Afghanistan. As usual with developments in this part of the world, however, nothing will happen quickly or decisively. It will be dran-out and excruciating.
We may come to the point where we only wish it were “Vietnam II.”
J.E. Dyer on May 14, 2009 at 9:30 PM
I have it on good authority…nukem’lol!
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 9:31 PM
“…drawn-out and excruciating…”
J.E. Dyer on May 14, 2009 at 9:31 PM
Suck their brains out of their noses with a straw. Lord Shiva on the other hand is known as the Destroyer of Worlds. Kali was a small time death cult kind of guy, kindergarten kind of small fry compared to Shiva.
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 9:31 PM
Thanks. I figured it was something like that but wasn’t sure.
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 9:33 PM
Dont make the mistake of underestimating the non Muslim Indians. While their reputation for being kind and gentle people is well earned, their capacity for violent retribution is the stuff legends are made of.
doriangrey on May 14, 2009 at 9:37 PM
there’s a reason Oppenheimer quoted their scripture…
sven10077 on May 14, 2009 at 9:39 PM
Bin Laden has stated from the start of his Jihad that his goal was a Shari’a based country. For a time the Taliban had Afghanistan and Bin Laden paraded this fact as proof it could happen elsewhere.
I believe he wants Pakistan and the Paki-Taliban, while not taking orders from him are serving him quite well.
As far as strategy goes they believe once they control Pakistan the other “stans” will follow as well as Somalia and Sudan.
Under their insane way of thinking Eygpt and Saudi Arabia will follow.
Finally AP the movement is religion based, their interpretation of Islam.
Throw away any argument about laying low and letting the state pave the highways and pick up trash, it’s a movement.
FireBlogger on May 14, 2009 at 9:39 PM
“I am become death, the destroyer of worlds.”
coldwarrior on May 14, 2009 at 9:45 PM
True, but if we have to act now, we do so with the plans, forces, etc., from before 20 January 2009. The sooner we act, the less likly there willbe interference form one of Obama’s incompetent staffers.
.
I’m not a Pentagon planner. As for not knowing “the enemy” (I assume from you post that you mean the Taliban): true, I’m not an expert by and measure, but I recognize a “tribal” mind (the news descriptions of them are quite clear).
My points were that:
1) We see what a child Nasrallah is, and the Taliban are less advanced, have less world experience, and behave similarly;
2) The Taliban really don’t understand what acquiring nuclear weapons means (like Nasrallah poking Israel);
3) I think that the Taliban, if they ever get a device, will try to use it, but such an action is likely beyond their abilities;
4) We should use this situation to flush the Pak Nuke turd and AQ Khan and friends.
.
All: Kali, IIRC is female; an incarnation/avatar of Parvati.
Arbalest on May 14, 2009 at 9:47 PM
FireBlogger,
I only have one disagreement with your understanding of islam…
It’s not a religion …it’s an ideology…founded by a pedophile…
just a minor distinction…lol
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 9:49 PM
Don’t forget the AQ influence …most of the upper echelon are trained engineers, Doctors ….well educated.
They are the foot soldiers …just to get to the weapons… and besides, there are reports that some of the regular army would rather fight the Indians… this will not turn out well!
Agreed!
jerrytbg on May 14, 2009 at 10:09 PM
This is the same kind of report that would have me foaming at the mouth if it came from PSMNBC or CNN. Don’t they realize some things are better left unreported? I expect better from Fox.
oldleprechaun on May 14, 2009 at 10:41 PM
Then, a nuke strike by them, ensuring their own total destruction, would be pointless, wouldn’t it?
OldEnglish on May 14, 2009 at 10:51 PM
It’s more complicated than that. If they secret the nukes in western cities, holding some in reserve, and destroy one of our cities to demonstrate their capability, how are we going to retaliate when other cities are also threatened? Against which country, the entire Islamic world? How would American’s feel about losing a second or third city if we failed to heed the terrorists demands?
Against a rational enemy MAD is a viable strategy, not against suicidal religious fanatics.
Even if we found all of the nukes, which may not even be possible through physical evidence, a nuclear armed sponsor of terrorism would have a lot of latitude to conduct conventional terrorist attacks against the west with little fear of retaliation. If a Taliban controlled Pakistan flew planes into more of our buildings, killing thousands more, and openly bragged about it, how could we possibly retaliate without nuclear escalation? I think it’s fairly clear at this point that the west, not even the US these days, has the stomach for that.
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 11:19 PM
I’m all for Special Ops doing whatever they have to do. Take out as many bad guys as needed, but God’s sake, just don’t pour water on anybody’s face!!
Star20 on May 14, 2009 at 11:28 PM
Then we deserve to be hit. We have no standing.
OldEnglish on May 14, 2009 at 11:33 PM
Could you imagine the reaction of the American people when Obama reads that speech off the teleprompter? Yikes! It would be Jimmy Carters Malaise X 1000!
FloatingRock on May 14, 2009 at 11:50 PM
We are talking about power freaks here. They aren’t going to behave in a rational, western manner. They get to Paradise by dieing for the cause–remember?
Why would you think nukes are safe anywhere near these guys?
Can they use squirt guns do you think? Or would Nancy prosecute?
petunia on May 15, 2009 at 12:11 AM
They want the nukes. It’s been an Islamist movement goal to take over the country ever since Pakistan got them.
Phoenician on May 15, 2009 at 1:51 AM
Molon Labe.
elduende on May 15, 2009 at 1:58 AM
Logic always provides an answer, even to our most difficult and painful questions. The one who deserves to win and live is the one who tries harder to. For me, our now obvious cultural suicidal tendencies takes some of the sting out of the demise of the West. Maybe it’s all for the best–like a forest fire.
JiangxiDad on May 15, 2009 at 7:39 AM
With Obama as president? Not a chance.
MarkTheGreat on May 15, 2009 at 8:36 AM
Most likely this is on purpose. A planned leak by the milatary to keep India and other allies from taking drastic action.
Also a warning to the Paki government they best get a move on.
kangjie on May 15, 2009 at 9:09 AM
If he was alive, he would be all over TV letting us know. With his son now a high-ranking member, is it so hard to believe that audio we hear isn’t him impersonating his father? I sound a lot like my father when I’m not even trying. When I do, my wife comes into room to see if he came over. Has anyone heard from Rich Little or Dana Carvey lately?
He’s dead and has been for a long time. Al Qaeda needs him alive to help with the recruiting drive.
slug on May 15, 2009 at 2:24 PM
If this is our primary strategy, I fear for the fate of the world. Unless our armed forces have some serious trump cards up their sleeves, there is no way on God’s green earth we’ll be able to snag the entire Paki nuclear arsenal before anyone else does if the situation goes south.
Dark-Star on May 15, 2009 at 4:19 PM
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