AIP Column: Was Porkulus irrelevant?
posted at 12:55 pm on May 14, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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In my weekly column at American Issues Project, I take a deeper look at the stimulus package, its aim, and its poor marksmanship. In particular, this graph from Innocent Bystanders tells the story of not only how Porkulus failed, but how it wasn’t necessary in the first place:
One aspect of this graph didn’t get much attention. Note that the lines for both predictions from Christine Romer and Jared Bernstein show that unemployment will return to 5% regardless of government intervention by 2014, and by 2011 the difference between the two becomes nearly negligible. The point of the stimulus, then, was to avoid the bubble — which we clearly have not avoided.
So was Porkulus irrelevant? Read the column to see my conclusion.
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Porkulus was to give the APPEARANCE that they were “doing something”. Not that it would actually work.
originalpechanga on May 14, 2009 at 1:00 PM
We all understand that the Pork was used to payoff BO’s supporters during his campaign. It had nothing to do with stimulating the economy.
jbh45 on May 14, 2009 at 1:01 PM
I believe that very rough times are ahead. Porkulus, TARP, et al just made things worse in the long run for recovery. What I don’t get is this consensus over 2012 being the year where things begin to improve. Why is it 2012? Why not 2013 or 2016? What sort of reasoning is behind many so-called analysts predicting 2012 is the end of bad economic times and the beginning of prosperity? (Also, for credibility, did these same individuals see the current economic downturn ahead of time before it became rather obvious?)
Weebork on May 14, 2009 at 1:01 PM
Of course Porkulus was not irrelevant.
It was the vehicle by which 100’s of billions of dollars were passed from the taxpayer to various Democratic constituencies. Both as a reward for past loyalties and as seed money to make sure that they are even more effective at distorting the political landscape in the future.
MarkTheGreat on May 14, 2009 at 1:07 PM
Dang did I gues wrong. I thought Ed was going write that it saved us from certain DOOM!
By 2012 strip malls will be 50% full. So the construction industry will have to kick in and build more strip malls.
Also, by 2012 local governments will have realized they should have added two lanes to a road instead on one lane that they added in 2010-11 with the stimulus money. Thus, they will ask for more taxpaypar money\increase debt to build that second lane.
And finally, foreign money will reenter the economy as Mickey Mouse, Jimmy Johns, et al. donate to Obama’s campaign via credit card transactions with no traceable information.
WashJeff on May 14, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Didn’t Allah tell us over and over again that we could not afford to oppose Porkulus. Because it was vital that Republicans be seen as caring and trying to do something.
Whether or not the thing being proposed would actually help was utterly irrelevant. It was the appearance of caring that mattered.
MarkTheGreat on May 14, 2009 at 1:09 PM
That graph is just speculation…if Obama’s policies continue, unemployment peak is not 8+% where we are now. But I like the optimism, but the glass if half full of sour milk.
kirkill on May 14, 2009 at 1:10 PM
They are betting on that Mayan prediction and that with the world ending, we won’t notice how wrong they were.
myrenovations on May 14, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Porkulus was PAYBACK & PAYOFFS to special interest groups/Unions for their work on getting Obama elected.
portlandon on May 14, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Weebork on May 14, 2009 at 1:01 PM
Apparently it’s like somebody else said about Obama’s gay marriage — the people screaming about Carrie Prejean just take it for granted that Obama lied about being against gay marriage because that was necessary to get elected.
I guess people ALSO assume that this whole spend-spend-spendulus bill was designed to time the recovery so as to maximize Obama’s chances of looking like a hero come October 2012. (In other words, they happily assume that Obama is a skank and see nothing wrong with that.)
Aitch748 on May 14, 2009 at 1:11 PM
Exactly , non of them saw this coming , know they suddenly know when it will turn…
the_nile on May 14, 2009 at 1:12 PM
Title on the unread bill:
Rewards for those who put me in officeStimulus PackageDaggett on May 14, 2009 at 1:12 PM
Aitch748 on May 14, 2009 at 1:11 PM
That should say “…about Obama’s stance on gay marriage.”
Jeez, people, give us an “Edit” button already.
Aitch748 on May 14, 2009 at 1:14 PM
So, would it be safe to say that instead of helping or even keeping the expected projections, that the stimulus package and other government interventions have actually made things worse?
Don’t expect that to be reported…EVER.
Queasy on May 14, 2009 at 1:14 PM
It was rushed thru, as if the country would nuke itself, without it. And here we are. Worse off, and deep in debt.
You can always count on democrats. To muck things up…and I really don’t mean muck.
capejasmine on May 14, 2009 at 1:16 PM
Ya think? Maybe not to OBAMACORN.
tbear44 on May 14, 2009 at 1:17 PM
The massive “stimulus” pork spending wasn’t “irrelevant” to Obama’s desire to be re-elected in 2012. Those billions of dollars to Obama’s base (unions, ACORN, etc.) were meant to serve a purpose, and they will. Just because that purpose is completely different from the one that was sold to the public to justify the massive spending doesn’t make it “irrelevant”– “underhanded,” “unethical,” “criminally negligent,” perhaps, but certainly not “irrelevant.”
AZCoyote on May 14, 2009 at 1:17 PM
Aw, that’s an easy one! Big Brother Barry, up for re-election, gets to take credit for the improvement! In the meantime, people are supposed to forget three years of recession, or blame it on Bush.
Steve Z on May 14, 2009 at 1:17 PM
Oh it’ll be relevant. Come 2012 the voting lines will double as bread lines.
Limerick on May 14, 2009 at 1:23 PM
I doubt very much that unemployment is going to be 5% by 2014 absent a major WWII-esque war.
zmdavid on May 14, 2009 at 1:28 PM
…AND destroying the credibility of the U.S. dollar in the world’s markets. Porkulus also caused China to cancel our credit card.
landlines on May 14, 2009 at 1:34 PM
A better question is: how many of them can predict what new trillion-dollar confiscation of private funds will Obama announce TOMORROW.
As for the long-term crystal ball gazing: It’s like predicting the weather; if you try to guess more than a week in advance, they just go by the historical average. You’re better off with a Magic Eight Ball.
Liberal theologists have conclusively decreed that the five and a half quadrillion tons of gases in the earth’s atmosphere are going to be thrown permanently out of whack by an additional 0.000000001% carbon dioxide.
Oh, but a doubling of permanent non-discretionary federal spending in the first three months of this year, plus additional allocations equal to (so far) ONE HUNDRED PERCENT of last year’s GDP?
Don’t worry, that’ll just cause a little blip.
logis on May 14, 2009 at 1:43 PM
I just hope it’s not irrelevant in 2010 and 2012.
/justsayin’
bluelightbrigade on May 14, 2009 at 1:48 PM
Great column and analysis Ed!
Not that it will make any difference.
The Obomabots will never hear about the dismal failure.
notagool on May 14, 2009 at 1:48 PM
I think I’ve got Porkulus Flu.
gregbert on May 14, 2009 at 1:56 PM
We were heading towards a depression regardless of the massive spending by the Feds over the last, let’s say, year. We were already in massive debt before TARP, et al were passed/used. Private sector debt (e.g. credit cards, housing) is in the tens of trillions of dollars, nevermind the federal deficit. All the recent massive spending has done is prolonged when we recover from a generational depression. We’ll survive as a country, because we’re America, but what the country will look like then when we do is unknowable at this time.
Weebork on May 14, 2009 at 2:00 PM
Quoting, well, myself:
And then I go on to briefly summarize Barack Obama’s history of wasteful spending and exceptionally poor judgment in fiscal matters….
ironman on May 14, 2009 at 2:12 PM
Hey, just a general question, but what part of the red triangle should I look at to see exactly where the March and April data is on the graph? I’d like to send this around. Thanks in advance.
dIb on May 14, 2009 at 2:23 PM
Uhh, porkulus was about funneling money to unions and other Democratic allies. Saying otherwise was just spin for the cameras.
hawksruleva on May 14, 2009 at 2:35 PM
Amen, hawksrulevea. Porkulus takes money from the private sector and funnels it to public sector. The more public sector employees, the less likely we’ll ever get enough voters to roll this back.
Christian Conservative on May 14, 2009 at 2:41 PM
Porkulus will go down in history as “The Ultimate Corruption“.
landlines on May 14, 2009 at 8:40 PM
I think that porkulus is working. It is doing just as the new deal did for FDR, that is it prolonged the crummy economy and kept the indespensible man, FDR, in office. It may have already started to work by increasing unemployment beyond the nonstimulus projection.
burt on May 14, 2009 at 10:24 PM
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