Pakistan goes to war?
posted at 8:46 am on May 8, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
The civilian government in Pakistan has finally admitted what everyone else knew from the beginning — that signing peace agreements with the Taliban amount to surrender. Now, with the rebels gobbling up territory and pushing within sight of Islamabad, Prime Minister Yousuf Gillani has finally declared war on the Taliban … again:
Pakistan’s prime minister told the nation Thursday that the armed forces were being “called in to eliminate the militants and terrorists” who have forcibly occupied part of the country’s northwest, sending thousands of civilians fleeing from the region in the past week.
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani’s announcement, made in a late-night, televised address, signaled the final collapse of a fragile peace accord between the government and Taliban forces in the Swat region. It also represented the civilian government’s formal green light for a full-fledged offensive by the military, which until now has been fighting sporadically.
Gillani called on all Pakistanis to unite behind the armed forces “to restore the honor and dignity” of the nation, the safety of citizens and the authority of the government. “We will defend every inch of our homeland at any cost,” he declared.
Gillani’s address came on another day of intense but scattered clashes. Military officials said the army and other security forces had attacked militant positions with warplanes, attack helicopters and tanks. They said that they killed at least 80 Taliban fighters in Swat and Buner districts, and that nine soldiers died in an ambush and other attacks. A son of a senior Islamist leader in Swat, Sufi Mohammed, was also reported to have been killed by army shelling.
Gillani and President Asif Ali Zardari aren’t the first Pakistani leaders to mistakenly trust a peace accord. Pervez Musharraf tried it twice, with similarly disastrous results. The Taliban repaid Musharraf with repeated plots against his life and uprisings that eventually forced Musharraf to use the army to suppress.
The situation is more dire now than ever before. The lax effort by Pakistan to confront radical Islamist forces have emboldened them to a much greater degree than before. Pakistan all but surrendered Swat, once a tourist destination, in the hope that Baitullah Mehsud and his cohorts would be satisfied with it. Instead, they surged into Buner and towards Islamabad. Their successes have created 500,000 refugees fleeing into Islamabad, creating a public-services crisis on top of the military problem of recapturing the territory.
The big question will be whether the military will follow Gillani and Zardari into battle against other Pakistanis. Reportedly, one of the considerations that went into Pakistan’s decision to acquiesce in Swat was a lack of confidence that the military would respond well in a confrontation. Now they have a much bigger conflict on their hands, with an enemy that has entrenched itself even deeper in that region. That will make for very harsh fighting, and if the military doesn’t have the heart for it, this “war” will be very short, and could undermine what little confidence is left in the civilian government.
Blowback
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Just be nice to them and they will like you.
Give rolling-over-and-offering-your-throat a chance.
Saltysam on May 8, 2009 at 8:53 AM
Nguyễn Văn Thiệu episode 2009.
Limerick on May 8, 2009 at 8:54 AM
Maybe President Obama will send us over the moutain top to help out.
BadgerHawk on May 8, 2009 at 8:54 AM
Just another front of the perfect storm. Who is John Galt?
petefrt on May 8, 2009 at 8:55 AM
I wonder what Fatima Bhutto thinks? Someone better shut her up… she might make Obama look bad…
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:00 AM
wow..i feel better
Pelosi lied…people died
JJKRN on May 8, 2009 at 9:00 AM
We already have QOTD!
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:01 AM
Since both sides have the same god, it will be interesting to see how “god’s will” will be done. Will we have religious fanaticism or Islamic moderates prevail?
volsense on May 8, 2009 at 9:01 AM
If were all very lucky Pakistan will nuke Pakistan.
doriangrey on May 8, 2009 at 9:02 AM
Heh.
Okay, Obama. Ready for your *NEXT* test?
Can you order U.S. special forces to go grab the Pakistan nuke arsenal *without* telegraphing the move?
Mew
acat on May 8, 2009 at 9:02 AM
I will believe the Pakistani Army is serious when they move their best units to the real battle zone against the Taliban in the Northwest from the Indian frontier where all is quiet except for when jihadis attack India in Kashmir. Pakistan’s deterent against India is her nuclear weapons. They cannot win a conventional war with India anyway.
If Pakistan uses its regular army instead of frontier militia, it will defeat the Taliban which threatens everyone and make an Indian invasion much less likely.
KW64 on May 8, 2009 at 9:02 AM
The only form of moderate Islamic government that I can think of is a military dictatorship (or something close).
Oh the choices!
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:02 AM
Since both sides have the same god, it will be interesting to see how “god’s will” will be done. Will we have religious fanaticism or Islamic moderates prevail?
volsense on May 8, 2009 at 9:01 AM
——–
The “Islamic moderates” in Pakistan aren’t – they’re a different ethnic group. This isn’t about Islam, it’s about power.
Mew
acat on May 8, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Are there any lessons to be learned here? And, if so, will anyone listen?
OldEnglish on May 8, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Wait, I thought it was un-Kewl to fight the Taliban since they are clearly different than Al Qaida … Oh Teh One enlighten your flock…
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:04 AM
I wonder – if Pakistan’s people are really threatened by the Taliban, maybe we’ll finally reach a point where Pakistan will allow us to strike Taliban targets with impunity.
But if Pakistan offered to let us take care of their Taliban problem, would the U.S. be willing to do it, knowing that many Muslims would use it as an excuse for hatred of Americans?
hawksruleva on May 8, 2009 at 9:08 AM
Will *someone* remind me how the Russians ended up allied to the Indians while we were stuck with the Pakistanis during the cold war?
Mew
acat on May 8, 2009 at 9:08 AM
Islam is the whore of Babylon.
csdeven on May 8, 2009 at 9:08 AM
War isn’t the ANSWER.
Give peace a chance.
artist on May 8, 2009 at 9:09 AM
It might be counter-productive to the Israelis if Pakistan were to lose their nukes to the US.
India could be forced to give up hers, and then Israel would be under a great deal of pressure to give up hers. That cannot be allowed to happen.
OldEnglish on May 8, 2009 at 9:09 AM
One also has to wonder – how many people in those 500,000 refugees are carrying nasty surprises that will soon be exploding in Islamabad?
hawksruleva on May 8, 2009 at 9:10 AM
It is pretty simple. We chose block Indian military modernization in an effort to appease China. India went to the arms baazar in the Kremlin and came away happy.
Limerick on May 8, 2009 at 9:12 AM
And another test for Bambi:
Pyongyang said it was useless to talk to the Obama administration because its “hostile policy” left it no choice but to bolster its nuclear deterrent.
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:12 AM
How exactly are we going to “force” India to give up their nukes? I fail to see how Barry can even muster a request to the Pakistanis… No, India is a nuclear power – one that we can live with.
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:15 AM
The Chinese linked up with Pakistan to counter India. We were trying to triangulate between China and Russia and Pakistan provided an entry to China. Also, remember that India was not always the incipient capitalist nation it is today. There was a long period of government that was strong on socialism and a lot of Anti-Americanism in India.
Much of that has changed now. China is the greater threat than Russia. India has embraced freer markets and seeks better relations with the US.
KW64 on May 8, 2009 at 9:19 AM
Asif Ali Zardari hasn’t bowed deeply enough!!
all he has to do is apologize and everything will be OK the taliban will like him, and unicorns will fly under rainbows!!!
I HAVE PICTURES!!!!
right4life on May 8, 2009 at 9:20 AM
Wasn’t Bush the most popular US Pres. to the Indians – evah?
One good thing…
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:21 AM
obama didn’t apologize enough to the DEAR LEADER…and the DEAR LEADER is upset that obama may supplant him with his own cult of personality!!!
right4life on May 8, 2009 at 9:22 AM
What does that make Obama? A pimp?
Daggett on May 8, 2009 at 9:24 AM
Fascists Overlords battle it out… It sounds like a show destined for MTV.
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:24 AM
You are quite correct on that. It’s just that, on a previous thread, it was suggested that Iran could not be persuaded to stop its work on nukes if neighbouring countries had them (meaning Israel), and that India and Pakistan having nukes would be used by Israel to resist its own disarmament.
If Pakistan no longer has nukes, there is less of a case for India keeping hers.
The domino effect.
OldEnglish on May 8, 2009 at 9:27 AM
Just be nice to them and they will like you.
Give rolling-over-and-offering-your-throat a chance.
Saltysam on May 8, 2009 at 8:53 AM
You’ve been listening to Obambi havent you.
faol on May 8, 2009 at 9:28 AM
Release the nude photos and court records!
Sick the Dog of War on her!
Tweet! Tweet! Come, Janet Napolitano! Come!
Fatima Bhutto must be detroyed!
Loxodonta on May 8, 2009 at 9:30 AM
I was shocked that CNN even interviewed her yesterday, when she was directly contradicting the Obama Policy…
Yeah, the hounds are going to be sent out…
And remember, she’s some ugly silicon bimbo or something…
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:33 AM
the bottom line?
the taliban get the nukes, if they don’t already have some…and share them with their friends al-qaeda…
I’m just glad I don’t live in NYC or DC…
that would be great!! just hope they get it in before the EMP!!!
right4life on May 8, 2009 at 9:35 AM
And remember, she’s some ugly silicon bimbo or something…
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:33 AM
That’s Pelosi.
faol on May 8, 2009 at 9:35 AM
*chuckle*
Would that be the Obama induced EMP or the Taliban one?
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:36 AM
No, anyone that agrees with Obama [on torture] is beautiful!
Upstater85 on May 8, 2009 at 9:36 AM
I vote for the or something…
Loxodonta on May 8, 2009 at 9:42 AM
The Indians should offer military support. The Pakis just might be desperate enough to take them up on it, and the Indians would be more than happy to whack some Talibunny butt.
gridlock2 on May 8, 2009 at 9:55 AM
i’ve been reading this on LongWarJournal. the Pakistan Army declares excitedly that they killed 10 Taliban this day, 8 Taliban the next day.
i don’t think that shows alot of progress, do you?
and according to someone at the Pentagon (that i’ve seen on FNC or have read about on a rt-wing blog), we don’t know where the Paki nukes are right now & the Paks won’t tell us (maybe because they have already lost some to the terrorists).
kelley in virginia on May 8, 2009 at 9:56 AM
also, i read some Indian newspapers & it doesn’t seem they are the least bit concerned about the problems of Pakistan. but they are hot that bambi wanted to punish their economic success with his “no overseas tax breaks” policy.
I wish i could know/understand what is going on in at least one country over there.
kelley in virginia on May 8, 2009 at 9:58 AM
India has a lot more to fear from the Chinese than they do from Pakistan. They need their nukes to deter the Chinese. Remember, India make the investment in nukes decades before the Pakistanis did.
gridlock2 on May 8, 2009 at 10:01 AM
You are correct. It doesn’t show progress.
Now, if the Pak’s could just reverse their order and kill 8 Taliban this day, 10 Taliban the next day, and kept increasing the killings at a 25% rate, then the Taliban problem would be solved a lot more quickly.
Loxodonta on May 8, 2009 at 10:02 AM
True, but China was a different animal, back then. Now, they seem to want the South-East, while neutering the West economically.
OldEnglish on May 8, 2009 at 10:17 AM
Everyone needs to relax.
Look at the great job Obama has done so far.
Ok so were losing jobs our economy is shrinking, we are going broke, and our enemies are laughing at us.
But THIS time Obama will work REALLY REALLY hard.
And he will fix it.
Or at least make the media feel good about the situation.
LincolntheHun on May 8, 2009 at 10:20 AM
For now. But how long will India remain friendly with an administration that is intent on pulling U.S. corporate interests out of India and back to the U.S.–so that WE can harvest their tax dollars?
Dee2008 on May 8, 2009 at 10:24 AM
In that, he will succeed.
OldEnglish on May 8, 2009 at 10:25 AM
Yup. And after 8 years of India getting friendly with the US under Bush along comes Obama slashing our military and abusing our allies and sucking up to freedom’s enemies and generally telegraphing weakness not seen since Chamberlain and now India’s back to buying it’s new fighters from Russia. Damn.
Maquis on May 8, 2009 at 10:27 AM
They need to take and hold territory. Let the dead litter the ground of the newly “liberated” (in quotes ‘cuz in Islam liberty is relative) regions and to heck with the body count. The number to achieve is 0. Zero Taliban.
Maquis on May 8, 2009 at 10:31 AM
I don’t think the democrats are going to like this. They hate war. They will probably pass a bill saying that Pakistan is on it’s own with no help from us. We’ll be sending money to the Taliban so they can take care of their injured and rebuild. I hope this doesn’t turn out as bad as it might.
Brat4life on May 8, 2009 at 10:34 AM
The Pakistan army is taking a lot more hits than the Wapo is revealing.
As usual,we have to go to a real source of news to understand what is really going on:
The Long War Journal: Pakistani Army to ‘eliminate’ the Taliban in Swat: Prime Minister Gilani
Written by Bill Roggio on May 7, 2009 2:24 PM to The Long War Journal
Available online at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/pakistan_army_to_eli.php
Of course this is going to be a serious test of the Pakistani military that has a lot of Taliban sympathizers
within it’s ranks.
Will the government have the strength and will to follow the Taliban into the mountains if they do drive them from the valley.It will take a serious amount of casualties and a commitment for major warfare to actually “defeat” the Taliban.
I hope they back these words up because capitulation will only make the Taliban stronger and erode the populace support for the government even more.
Baxter Greene on May 8, 2009 at 10:35 AM
IF the pakistanis are serious, this could be a good thing, squeeze the Taleban between them and us, but I’m not sure they have the nerve to go in full force.
todler on May 8, 2009 at 10:48 AM
Here is a great analysis with several links of what is at stake and how difficult this is going to be in Pakistan:
(via The Captain’s Journal)
Is Pakistan the Next Failed State?
BY Herschel Smith
3 weeks, 2 days ago
I still don’t think the population supports this government
and nothing short of a military coupe will really make any significant difference in stopping or defeating the Taliban.
This government is weak and will bow to public pressure that is sure to come with increased civilian casualties and the Taliban’s success’s one day,beat back the next,then back again for more because the government will not go all out in destroying them.
They will fight for a little while,the Taliban will sign a peace accord to buy time,then come back stronger.
A military coupe will not give a dam# about the press and opinion and will go all out in gaining absolute power.This can only be established by destroying the Taliban.
We may be replacing one evil for another,but a least we could gain some stability and secure the nuclear arsenal.
Baxter Greene on May 8, 2009 at 10:51 AM
I just hope the civilian crisis does not go totally out of hand (with 500,000 refugees floating around). If there are a lot of civilian casualties in the conflict, that has a potential of turning public opinion against the government.
In general, in these kinds of fights, it’s always a Catch 22 situation. If you sign peace accords, the terrorists are emboldened and expand. If you do fight, they take civilians as hostages (either literally or in effect) and then when civilian casualties mount, they exploit the “victim factor” to recruit more people in their ranks to create an insurrection against the government. Ultimately, it all boils down to extremely low level of education among these areas (specially among women), which renders folks unable to realize what their *long* term good is in. Just sad.
peter_griffin on May 8, 2009 at 10:52 AM
If you were bound and gagged with a Taliban sword about to decapitate you, war might be an answer.
With some enemies, such as the Nazis, war is the only answer.
Steve Z on May 8, 2009 at 10:59 AM
Sad when fictional story book leaders have more common sense than real life leaders.
juanito on May 8, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Looks and feels a lot like Saigon before the fall, but hey, on the upside, the Left finally gets a Vietnam analogy that actually works…
Bruno Strozek on May 8, 2009 at 11:28 AM
If it weren’t for the nukes that Pakistan (POK-EEE-STAWN)has, I’d be just fine with the Taliban rolling in and initiating some regime change there.
This should be the message from the US to the Paks instead hyping up an agreement to build a f’in road from Pakistan to Afghanistan, which will only decrease the opium delivery time. Which is good for business….uh…maybe The One is an economic genius.
BobMbx on May 8, 2009 at 11:47 AM
Pakistan going medieval on the Taliban is good news….just watch for the “unintended consequences”.
things could get hairy before we know it.
Goodeye_Closed on May 8, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Gearing up…but they need to do more, a lot more.
Meanwhile…there is India.
coldwarrior on May 8, 2009 at 12:03 PM
Cease fire within 24 hours and new “peace agreement” with Taliban. One of the conditions agreed to by Pakistan and Taliban will be that the US can no longer use drones over Pakistan.
Pakistan govt. will agree to further Talibanization of Pakistan but want it done in a less visible, more non-violent way.
India getting ready to invade once US “secures” Pakistan’s nukes.
albill on May 8, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Better late than never.
patrick neid on May 8, 2009 at 12:25 PM
I hope you are right, but India’s government has shown an *extremely* weak kneed response to terrorism in recent years, so I will be really surprised to see if they resort to a military invasion.
peter_griffin on May 8, 2009 at 12:27 PM
***
Pakistan didn’t get into the current bad situation by accident. For 20 years or more they have allowed the radical MADRASSAHS to train their young people in JIHADI RELIGION. And this is going on in many other countries around the world–funded by Saudi Arabia. France, Spain, England, the Phillipines, Indonesia, etc. are also moving down this road. The new U.S.S.A. is also getting these radical Mosques and Jihadi trainers.
***
Once the new generation is radicalized and armed the government takeovers will be coming soon. The loyalty of the Pakistan Army is in question–as is their security agency.
***
The die is cast in Pakistan–either the government and army take over the Jihadi areas (Northwest and Swat territories) and kill them all–like the first King Hussein of Jordan did when the PLO moved into his country 35 years ago. He knew that failing to win would result in his head on a pike.
***
All civilized countries should shut down the Madrassahs and give 10 year prison sentences to anyone preaching (INCITING) these future terrorists. And then take away the Jihadi’s residence permits and / or citizenship and send them back to their benighted “countries” when the 10 years is over. If they want Sharia Law–send them home to enjoy it there–not here!
***
John Bibb
***
rocketman on May 8, 2009 at 12:43 PM
Too bad. The Swat valley is a beautiful place. It would be like heaven if it wasn’t full of Pakistanies.
saiga on May 8, 2009 at 1:13 PM
I’m not really convinced that ‘W’ could have handled this really mucky situation any better up to this point really, but I do believe that 0bama will make it a thousand times worse than it ever would have been under ‘W’ from this point forward.
Spiritk9 on May 8, 2009 at 2:12 PM
Yes it is.
F*** off.
bluelightbrigade on May 8, 2009 at 3:49 PM
Blood-Cult talking monkeys living in mud huts… with nukes.
Man. The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades.
SilverStar830 on May 8, 2009 at 5:07 PM
artist:
Since the situation demands it, I shall deal with your last point first.
THEY HAVE. Indeed, the Pakistani government has hardly ever NOT given its growing insurgency in the Northwest a chance, and Musharraf and Zardai and Bhutto all tried to make agreements and signed peace after peace after peace.
And the Jihad just scrapped them and continued marching on.
\
In that case, answer me this, oh wise one:
WHAT IS?
Turtler on May 8, 2009 at 9:49 PM