Ridge out; field clear for Toomey?
posted at 2:55 pm on May 7, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
A bit of a minor bombshell hit today in the ongoing Pennsylvania Senate saga that started when Pat Toomey decided to run against Arlen Specter in next year’s primary. Some thought that Toomey’s staunch conservatism might push the GOP to look for a more centrist candidate to compete against the former Congressman and chair of Club for Growth, and speculation swirled that former Governor Tom Ridge might be the man. Ridge took himself out of the running today, however:
Tom Ridge, the first U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security and former Governor of Pennsylvania, issued the following statement today on his decision not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate in his home state of Pennsylvania.
“After careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate.
“I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection. All of the above made my decision a difficult and deeply personal conclusion to reach. However, this process also impressed upon me how fortunate I am to have so many friends who volunteered to support my journey if I chose to take it and continue to offer their support after I conveyed to them this morning how I believe I can best serve my commonwealth, my party and my country.["]
According to some, with Ridge goes the GOP’s hope of wresting the seat back from Specter and his new colleagues in the Democratic Party. Pennsylvania hasn’t been kind to conservatives, and some point to Rick Santorum’s loss to Robert Casey, Jr. in 2006 as evidence that a conservative can’t win in the Keystone State. That’s what prompted the GOP to start looking for primary challengers to Toomey rather than start building support for him in a general election. Now, they don’t have anyone of sufficient stature to push into the primary.
I think the GOP panic misses the mark. I like Rick Santorum, but he’s a different kind of conservative. Santorum’s social conservatism might not have played well in 2006, but he also faced some strong national headwinds in an election that was not kind to Republicans anywhere. He only had one term in office, which didn’t establish him in voters’ minds as an indispensable man.
Toomey is most well-known for fiscal conservatism, almost to the exclusion of everything else. In 2010, that’s going to play much more attractively than Santorum did in 2006. After two years of massive government spending, followed by a cap-and-trade effort that will crush Pennsylvania’s coal, energy, and manufacturing sectors, voters will be looking for checks on Obama’s policies. They won’t get that from Specter, who won’t be a trustworthy figure anyway, or Joe Sestak, who will be more or less Obama’s rubber stamp. If Toomey focuses on nothing but economics and energy policy in the 2010 race, he has an excellent chance to capture the trust of Pennsylvanians looking for a change from all of Obama’s change.
And that won’t be a bad lesson for the GOP nationwide, either.
Blowback
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By the fall of 2010, anyone without a D after their name will look good.
Vashta.Nerada on May 7, 2009 at 2:59 PM
Ridge should really run for Casey’s seat in 2012. Its a shame to waste a politician who has won before in a Democrat state. The Donk Party never does that.
Speedwagon82 on May 7, 2009 at 2:59 PM
If the economy rebounds before 2010 all those who voted against the bailouts are toast
nice343 on May 7, 2009 at 3:00 PM
A little perspective on Arlen…no matter what Hot Air hype may be, Arlen is done! But maybe Alluh can be like that great moderate Jesse Jackson and “keep hope alive!”
First Alluh pushed about the great war-chest of Arlen in hopes of scaring people away from Toomey.
Then Toomey gets in and Arlen becomes a switch hitter.
Next Alluh pushes a Ridge rumor and a Q poll to tell us all that Toomey can’t beat Arlen.
Then Hot Air doesn’t disclose that Toomey just raised $500,000 in 2 1/2 weeks. But Ridge found out nevertheless and knows he couldn’t raise $500,00 in 2 1/2 weeks if Robert Blake’s Money Train went barrelling up his ass. Plus he could not win in a Republican primary in PA. So he gets out.
Next Hot Air, in their headlines of Ridge not getting in the race, somehow thinks this is all great for Arlen. Problem is that Arlen will get a primary opponent and by December will see the handwriting on the wall…Again!
Maybe Alluh can write how in December Arlen will announce the Democratic party is not the party he once knew and can run as an independent…with his great war-chest! Keep hope Alive!
OK Sorry for the interuption, please return to scheduled programming drumbeat from Hot Air…
“Conservatives can’t win!” “Conservatives can’t win!”
jmell7 on May 7, 2009 at 3:00 PM
“He only had one term in office, which didn’t establish him in voters’ minds as an indispensable man”
Santorum was elected to the Senate in 1994, and re-elected in 2000.
BuzzCrutcher on May 7, 2009 at 3:00 PM
Hit ‘em hard on the economy.
Hit ‘em hard on GTMO, and the War on terror.
Hit ‘em hard on the economy again.
Remind base of your social conservatism, but present your case writ large as a fiscal conservative.
Abby Adams on May 7, 2009 at 3:01 PM
It will be very difficult for Toomey to keep from being defined by the Democrats as a right-wing nutjob. Republicans seem to have forgotten how to campaign in Pennsylvania. There are also the polls already showing him losing badly to Specter while Ridge was ahead of Specter. This will allow the media to brand Toomey as a loser before he even starts campaigning.
Our best hope is that Sestak does get into the Democratic primary and makes it a bloody one.
rockmom on May 7, 2009 at 3:01 PM
And then , the unicorn appeared.
the_nile on May 7, 2009 at 3:03 PM
And when it doesn’t, I’m sure you’ll vote for the people who supported them anyways. Such a reliable voter for the command economy you are.
lorien1973 on May 7, 2009 at 3:05 PM
ED, Santorum had TWO terms…. won in the ’94 revolution, and barely won on Bush’s coattails in 2000.
he was a two termer, not a first termer.
***
battleoflepanto1571 on May 7, 2009 at 3:06 PM
The people that gave you the bailouts aren’t even claiming a recovery in time.
Vashta.Nerada on May 7, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Pennsylvania is socially conservative and fiscally liberal. The only reason you don’t think PA when you think of big government is because California just outdoes us no matter how much power we give the state.
I agree that a backlash of Obama policies could tilt the state red…and could put some representatives, including Sestak (who is in a formerly red district), in hot water…but not enough for Toomey to beat Fast Eddie’s political machine in a senate race.
Scranton on May 7, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Assuming Specter gets the Dem nomination, Toomey can beat him. Specter was intending on pounding seniority for one thing and he won’t have much in hand on that issue. He is also 80 friggin years old. After two bouts of cancer, he is hardly in a position to argue he is a paragon of health. If he gets sick in his next 6 year term, a governor yet to be determined replaces him. It isn’t a shoe in that governor is going to be a Dem.
The arguments against Specter are endless and Toomey can make them. I don’t think he has the name recognition yet and his latest match up against Specter was in striking distance. Ridge could campaign for Toomey too, which would give him a lot of credibility with moderate voters. This is a doable election.
msmveritas on May 7, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Getting a conservative Republican elected in Pennsylvania requires the same parameters that, say, electing a Republican mayor period in New York (that is, an actual Republican, not Michael Bloomberg). That is, Democrats have to:
A.) Hold all major state offices;
B.) Hold both the White House and Congess;
C.) Screw things up before the mid-term election.
That’s how Santorum was elected in 1994 — the Democrats tried to paint him as out of the mainstream, but voters were unhappy with the direction of both the state and the nation, and there were no Republicans in positions of power to blame.
That’s why it’s too early to write Toomey off, no matter what the current poll numbers show. Pennsylvania’s governor is a Democrat; thanks to Arlen, both their senators are now Democrats, Obama’s a Democrat and both Houses of Congress are controlled by Democrats. If Pennsylvania voters are unhappy with the way things are going 18 months from now and want change, based on what happened in 1994, it’s pretty easy to figure out what they’re going to do.
jon1979 on May 7, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Only amongst those stupid enough to believe the stimulus had anything to do with any possible recovery.
MarkTheGreat on May 7, 2009 at 3:09 PM
Wikipedia seems to like Toomey. /sarc
ThePrez on May 7, 2009 at 3:12 PM
Off Topic but I think Allah would enjoy this.
Meghan McCain talks about Bristol Palin and abstinence. Personally, I think she is just jealous that they didn’t ask her to be the spokesperson…heh.
Oh, Perhaps Meghan and enlighten us on WHAT the GOP is clueless about.
deidre on May 7, 2009 at 3:13 PM
Are you in Scranton? I was born in Wilkes Barre but live in Philly suburbs. In this area a fiscally conservative candidate will be like manna from Heaven by 2010. Specter can never make that claim. I don’t know that Fast Eds political machine is going to have as much pull when he is leaving office. I think Toomey can pull it off.
msmveritas on May 7, 2009 at 3:13 PM
We just keep pushing ahead…the dems will make a mess of it. Look how quickly the electorate changes…
right2bright on May 7, 2009 at 3:14 PM
I hope Toomey focuses on taxes, spending, the national debt, and national security. And I hope Ridge endorses Toomey soon.
Loxodonta on May 7, 2009 at 3:14 PM
Which is the majority.
radiofreevillage on May 7, 2009 at 3:17 PM
Ed dwells is the anti-neokeyn reality-based community! Good on you, man! AP drives me bonkers with his “if the economy improves” crapola. It won’t.
Rae on May 7, 2009 at 3:18 PM
What a shame! Ridge can win; Toomey can not.
PAGOPgirl on May 7, 2009 at 3:18 PM
Pennsylvania and any energy, or coal producing state needs to be aware, that Obama isn’t going to stop pushing, for cap, and trade.
This will destroy jobs, raise electric rate to a point of bankrupting people, or forcing them to live without heat, lights, etc..
Most Democrats realized this, and voted against it…but if this power grab continues, and is successful to a point where democrats retain all power, and control…cap and trade will be a reality, after 2010.
Just some food for thought here. If you like being on your computer….you might want to think on that for awhile.
capejasmine on May 7, 2009 at 3:19 PM
Isn’t there one small fact everyone has forgot to mention. Doesn’t Ridge live in Maryland now. Other than that small detail, run, Ridge, run. We’ve got two crappy Maryland senators.
Lance Murdock on May 7, 2009 at 3:24 PM
Toomey needs to run in 2010 as the “Anti-STATISM” candidate.
I think he could win with the 50% of voters who pay all the taxes that the other half of Americans do not pay.
ColtsFan on May 7, 2009 at 3:29 PM
Instead of trying to find a ” I’m like a democrat too ” candidate give Toomey a chance. Back him if he wins the primary. We tried the me too with McCain and that went well.
faol on May 7, 2009 at 3:31 PM
More Democrats, fewer RINOs.
– Sincerely,
Conservatives.
YYZ on May 7, 2009 at 3:34 PM
FIFY, Lox
UltimateBob on May 7, 2009 at 3:36 PM
If Specter wins the Democrat primary, the age card needs to be played. Libs played it with McCain and he is 7 years younger than Specter. The guy is clearly senile.
Speedwagon82 on May 7, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Right now the Primary issue on voters minds is the economy. Republicans should be naturally stronger on that than libtards.
As long as they don’t throw the Socons under the bus, they can win stressing the economy.
We should also revive Op Chaos.
Iblis on May 7, 2009 at 3:52 PM
So, in other words, a vote for Obama or his befuddled minions in Congress is a vote for stupid?
I agree wholeheartedly.
hillbillyjim on May 7, 2009 at 3:55 PM
Economy issues are nice, but the GOP needs to fight back using the issue of corruption. One item that resonates across all parties is that of corruption, and the Pelosi/Reid/Obama show is full of corruptocrats in the most ethical Congress evah!
Focus on corruption with the old guard, linking them with luminaries like Chris Dodd.
The attacks are great because they are independent of economic situations. If the economy rebounds, you don’t want to have to rephrase your attacks that Person A is bad for the economy. But a politician who is corrupt is corrupt 7 days a week, regardless of the situation.
Nethicus on May 7, 2009 at 3:59 PM
FIFY
DethMetalCookieMonst on May 7, 2009 at 4:00 PM
I think Toomey can win in 2010. He easily won his congressional seat multiple times in a district which is more liberal than PA as a whole. He is also more electable than Santorum, who won two terms statewide.
That being said; like Santorum, he would probably be a 1 or 2-term senator at the most.
However, I’d rather have one or two terms with Toomey than 7 terms with another RINO (Ridge).
Norwegian on May 7, 2009 at 4:08 PM
Toomey has a huge following here in PA, he can win.
He originally planned to run for Gov., he’s been building a campaign for some time now
Go Toomey!!
right wing chicky on May 7, 2009 at 4:15 PM
You guys really think this doubling-down is going to work.
It doesn’t matter what Toomey does, if things evens out with the economy and Obama is popular any Democratic candidate just gets to ride the wave and sweep you with it.
Toomey may be hugely popular in the base but your base is shrinking. Your strategy will just looked tired and old amongst independants and moderate republicans.
ckoeber on May 7, 2009 at 4:27 PM
Dems win elections in PA based on massive welfare-recipient/minority turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh.
An off-year election will have much lower turnout that a presidential election.
And if Specter is the Democratic nominee, do you think there will be much enthusiasm among the libtards? Combine that with fact that 2010 will be a Republican year, and I can easily picture Toomey winning.
Norwegian on May 7, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Casey run against him as a social conservative, or at least as pro-life?
pannw on May 7, 2009 at 4:44 PM
That too. Very much that too.
That’s a mighty big “if,” and by “mighty big if,” I mean impossible.
Rae on May 7, 2009 at 4:50 PM
Keep dreaming. Reagan tried that “stay the course, we are headed in the right direction” tack in 1982. Republicans lost 52 seats in the House and four in the Senate. Even when the recovery was fully underway in 1984 and Reagan was reelected in a landslide, Republicans only picked up a handful of seats.
The first midterm election in a bad economy is a bloodbath for the party in power. This economy will still be on life support in the fall of 2010. You donks seem to think our economy can just turn on a dime. This is not true even in a mild recession and it really isn’t true in a near-depression.
In addition, Democrats have far more incumbents in Republican-leaning states and districts than republicans have in Democratic-leaning districts. It will be hard to hang on to a lot of those seats with no Obama coattails bringing out the fair-weather Democratic voters.
Pat Toomey has the advantage of not being in the Congress when the Republicans jumped the shark in 2005-06, or when either the TARP or the Porkulus were voted on. He can force specter to defend all those votes without having to defend George Bush or Tom DeLay or Jack Abramoff.
rockmom on May 7, 2009 at 4:53 PM
Yea, that’s why in 2006 the Democratic party picked up seats in Penn State in 06…
ckoeber on May 7, 2009 at 4:54 PM
Spot on, Ed, but you left me no room to make my point.
DannoJyd on May 7, 2009 at 4:54 PM
Depends on how well Kos is paid by the DNC.
Speedwagon82 on May 7, 2009 at 4:54 PM
So much optimism for failure! I love it.
Because that’s what captures voters. Screams of constant failure and socialism.
Waiting for actual plans to address the issues from Toomey ………………………………
ckoeber on May 7, 2009 at 4:56 PM
Nice points, but so far we just hear Toomey attacking the other side with bromides and platitudes. No real plans other than the same tired mantra of tax cuts and fiscal responsibility.
The problem with your theory is that the Democratic party is far more united and organized than the Republican party. What’s out there to fire up people to swing Republican? Back then the Democratic party had different ideas to pitch.
You have time but with all of this infighting this far past November the clock is winding down.
ckoeber on May 7, 2009 at 5:02 PM
Strange Ed how you don’t mention Santorum’s endorsement of Specter over Toomey in the ’04 primary as contributing to the magnitude of his loss in ’06. Sure, *probably* Santorum would have lost anyway given the strong anti-R current but it wouldn’t have been anywhere near as bad if he hadn’t demoralized his conservative supporters.
edshepp on May 7, 2009 at 5:32 PM
Well said Ed, I hope your colleage, Allah takes note of your line of thought on this as well.
paulsur on May 7, 2009 at 5:41 PM
Eh, the Democratic Party picked up seats EVERYWHERE in 2006. It was Democratic Year, with a depressed Republican electorate, not really representative to what will happen in 2010.
Norwegian on May 7, 2009 at 5:56 PM
No one has to “scream” about anything. The evidence of economic failure is (and will continue to be, and how) all around us. Too bad so sad. Obama could have let the invisible hand slap all the irresponsible failures silly, and have had a little longer than normal recession (18-24 mos), but he chose to create a Great Depression instead.
If you think I want it to be this way, you’re mistaken. Some obviously prefer to live in the fantasy-based community and Hope® for the best. For myself, I am preparing for the worst, because Hope® doesn’t pay the bills or feed the family.
Change®! for the Worse.
(FYI, it’s not “socialism.” It’s fascism.)
Rae on May 7, 2009 at 6:44 PM
The original argument was that “minorities” don’t come out on “off-election” cycles.
ckoeber on May 7, 2009 at 6:52 PM
Conservatives better get off of their arses and get Toomey elected. He has earned the job. Those too lazy in the last election to help had better not let America down again.
DannoJyd on May 7, 2009 at 11:39 PM
Precisely. All about the economy stupids. Don’t sacrifice your social conservatism, but don’t let the media use it as a wedge issue. Always steer the topic back to the economy over “personal values”.
Daemonocracy on May 7, 2009 at 11:59 PM