From the Cold War Dept.:

Georgia said hundreds of rebellious soldiers surrendered Tuesday after a brief mutiny, but officials backed away from initial claims that Russia supported the uprising as part of a coup plot.

The Interior Ministry at first sa…

That doesn’t mean it’s all about gas, Georgia-wise. Georgia has some fine real estate on the Black Sea that Great Russia would like to get back (Moscow has already staked out a big chunk of it with the occupation of Abkhazia). Georgia is the strip of land between Russia and Turkey — the NATO ally that administers the Turkish Straits, the Black Sea’s outlet to the Mediterranean. The more Russia tells Georgia what to do, the harder Turkey has to think about her priorities and security situation.

Pushing Russian coastal frontage back down the eastern side of the Black Sea increases her leverage over Ukraine, where Russia already operates Sevastopol and has no intention of respecting Kiev’s sovereignty.

De facto Russian rule of Georgia closes off options for recalcitrant locals further inland, as in Nagorno-Karabakh. It’s a measure to “encourager les autres,” where “les autres” are the “Stans” of Central Asia. “Fall in line with Moscow, or this could be you next year.”

There are a number of considerations other than the gas pipelines. But the gas pipelines are as important as those other considerations. For Moscow under Putin and Medvedev, gas extortion and extending Russian control around the Black Sea are a package deal.

Once is funny.

Five times is spam.

Oh yes, and that lovely map you made? You completely missed the point and obviously have no ability to comprehend images.

Sure, there are a lot of pipelines, but how many DON’T go through Russia and its Belarusian ally or Iran? Not a damn lot. And those are the pipelines that Europe depends on for its oil, particularly Eastern and Central Europe.

So it is ENTIRELY in Russia’s interests to conquer Georgia’s pipelines, because the issue is attempting to obtain a monopoly on gas between Russia and the Middle East to force Europe to kowtow to one of them.

To radiofreevillage et al: Do you dispute this point (or its relevance) in the slightest?

And the parade of idioticy continues…:

nice343:

Bush stood by and did nothing while bombs were raining in Georgia. I do not expect much from a WEAK leader anyway

Nothing?

You call setting a tripwire and THREATENING the Russians with war if it were crossed NOTHING?

You call sending ammunition and aid to Tiblisi NOTHING?

Well, in that case, the response from your guy will be LESS than NOTHING.

Or are you honestly deluded enough to believe Obama will actually punish these Russian acts of Aggression?

ThackerAgency:

Are you TRYING to encourage these people?

French Fascists used the slogan “Do you want to die for Danzig?” to discourage the West from retaliating against Hitler’s agression, and in part caused the disaster of 1940.

I twas only later, after decades of appeasement and a year of crushing failure that people realized that YES, one MUST be willing to die for Danzig, for Warsaw, for Riga, for every two-bit city in Easter Europe if need be, to deter the wolves from feasting upon the sheep.

We have forgotten that lesson. And you have as well.

May both relearn it quickly, while there is still time.

I wouldn’t doubt it. It wouldn’t be the first time that America’s heart strings were pulled to offer support of someone who didn’t deserve it.

Even if we are going to agree that hypothetically Saaks does not deserve our aid for whatever reason, do the innocent Georgians suffering under the Russian occupation and Ossetian/Abkhazian ethnic cleansing not deserve it?

More importantly, can we afford to ignore Russian attempts to strangle Europe’s oil?

Hating Russia is just so easy.

And with its despicable and indefensible actions, you wonder WHY?

America would be well served to think a little bit before acting.

As would YOU, obviously.

Despite what McCain said, no, we are not all Georgians. This is not our fight.

Oh, and when will it be? How much of the Former Soviet Republics must be annexed? What percentage of Europe’s oil must be under the control of the Kremlin? How many missiles and soliders must the Kremlin put? How much nuclear material? When DOES Putin’s perfidy become “Our Fight,” oh wise one?

I don’t understand why we have become the world’s policemen.

Um, perhaps because in the post-WWII world we realized that our European allies couldn’t play that game anymore, and that the only other candidate was Soviet Russia and its abhorrent agenda?

How would the US have failed if Russia does something to Georgia?

Because if we allow a burgeoning Democracy, a potential NATO member, and OUR loyal ally from Iraq to be reconquered by the Kremlin, it will send a message to the Islamists, to Beijing, and to Moscow.

And it is not a message you would like.

Or if Georgia has a civil war within its own boarders how would it be an American failure?

If one of those sides includes pro-Putin ultranationalists determined to hand the Caucasus over to Russia on a platter, and they win with overt Russian support, it will be.

Maybe I am just too naive to understand why America gets sick when Nairobi sneezes.

That much is obvious.

Would you recommend we send troops? If America were attacked, I’d expect US military response to keep America from ‘failing’.

Unfortunately, by the time a major power gets in a position to attack us, it will probably be too late. Which is why we must go over THERE and weaken the warlords before it becomes too late.

But I don’t see how Georgia failing (internally or externally) is a US failure unless we want to make them a US state.

Obviously the clear flexing of Russian muscles, their view that it is a war against the US, the dependency of our European “allies” on Georgian oil, and Putin’s use of this to curry support are lost on you.

“It’s not our business. If anyone, it is the EU’s business. I’m tired of fighting wars for other countries and paying for it with money we don’t have.”

And so am I. But if given the choice between war and allowing the bloodied banner of tyranny- in whatever guise it may appear in- to stretch even further, let there be war.

Even if we do send troops, there is no way any authorization to go into Russia from Georgia would occur. Russia would know this and bomb our troops from their side of the boarder.

ONLY if we do not destroy their ability to do so. Which we have no reason not to.

If we want to go to war, lets not just put our troops in position to be target practice for our enemies.

Agreed. Let us turn the Russian Black Sea fleet into artificial reefs and scorch ever Russian base into the ground, doubly so for air bases.

If we want to go to war, lets go to war and finish it without recognizing boarders.

FINALLY a good idea! But if given the choice between a costly and somewhat inefficient limited war or capitulation to tyranny, is it not obvious which is the better, more honorable course of action?

We won’t. We’ll fight in our little box with one hand tied behind our back wasting money and lives and gaining nothing.

So, the freedom and continued survival of our European allies, a humiliating strategic reverse for Russia, and security for the Central Asian pipelines are “nothing” to you?

How about instead of authorizing another war for oil, we authorize offshore drilling?

Good idea. However, that will take time and mainly benefit us. Europe needs oil TODAY. And if we cannot save the lifelines from Central Asia to Europe from Russian aggression, cities from London to Kiev risk either surrender or a cold winter.

Both would require acts of congress and both would have the effect of mitigating the ‘problem’ you suggest there.

True, but one will take years to do, while the other will be immediate. And time is not on our side.

Only authorizing offshore drilling would both add to our coffers and not cost American lives. War would take American lives and take from our coffers.

Nice idea, but we have to deal with the now. Let’s start drilling, but let us also start sending Tiblisi what it needs to survive. Or else we may not LAST long enough to enjoyour reserves.

Nah. . . let’s fight another unwinnable war for ZERO benefit to ourselves.

This stupid, idiotic, and clichéd sentence utterly sums up your moronic, shortsighted, and amoral world view. The US does not loose anything by tossing a small, innocent, and loyal ally to the wolves of Russian despotism, and thousands of Georgian lives mean nothing to you so long as you are not inconvenienced.
Such stupidity will kill us all.

why would we care about Georgian energy transport if we developed our own energy resources here in America?

Um, maybe ecause EUROPE needs it if it is to escape Russian blackmail ,and WE need Europe, whether we like it or not.

I solved your problem without getting involved in an unwinnable war.

No. You just spewed off garbage and made yourself look like a fool and worse: an amoral one.

We have energy HERE that we don’t access. We’d rather waste money and lives than not according to you.

Unfortunately, EUROPE DOES NOT HAVE THAT OIL. Central Asia DOES. And while we hardly use Central Asian oil, Europe absolutely DEPENDS on the stuff. And if Russia is allowed to dominate it, the results will be catastrophic.

But you just do not care, do you?

Knaves and fools will be the ruin of the West.

How would WE feel if there were scheduled Warsaw Pact manuvers held in MEXICO? Right on our border?

That depends? Did we occupy three quarters of Mexico on a false pretense while ethnically cleansing entire districts?

The Russians have historicly had a concept of the “Near Abroad”… those states around it that they used as a buffer and tripwire… where they did not want other Powers to play…

If Russia did not want other Powers to play there, THAN THEY SHOULDN’T HAVE BEEN KILLING THEM OFF FOR OVER A CENTURY, now SHOULDN’T they?

So, what do we do? We hold NATO excercises in Georgia?

Absolutely. It is key to tell Putin that any further aggression must be opposed by the West, and that his bullying must stop.

Sorry, its like pokeing a Bear in the eye…. and then wondering why it gets mad.

No. It is getting a hunting rifle out and pointing it at the bear attempting to eat a toddler and warning it to back away or else.

radiofreevillage:

Oh yes, before I start, I would like to say that I STILL am waiting for your responses on the other threads.

Another ignorant post from Ed Morrissey who doesn’t know basic facts but is always full of ready to use cliches.

The irony of a Class-A idiot saying this is literally toxic.

According to the said plan, Russian forces must withdraw from areas of Georgia outside of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Russians have never agreed to leave SO or A, and the plan never included this requirement.

Note, that this fact has nothing to do with whether or not you think it’s a good idea for the Russians to leave the said Republics (as I think that it is). I merely note that Ed doesn’t know what the plan was, and he doesn’t know the current state of affairs in Georgia.

The Irony is THICK when you accuse someone of not knowing what is going on in Georgia WHEN YOU MISS THE FOREST FOR THE SAKE OF THE TREES: the problem Ed citied isn’t that Russia hasn’t withdrawn everywhere, including Ossetia and Abkhazia, it is that it is STILL IN GEORGIA PROPER, where they were UNDOUBTABLY NOT SUPPOSED TO BE!

Who are all these people? If you thought “well, surely them are a bunch of freedom haters and evildoers” then you thought wrong (although congratulations, you just earned yourself a right to blog on a leading conservative site).

Very cute, fool. No, they likely aren;t Russian dupes, though some of them may unknowingly be.

The reality is that Saakashvili is now increasingly unpopular inside Georgia.

And that is all well and good, within Democratic lines. However, if Russia wants a coup (as it has repeatedly said), it must be opposed.

Many Georgian politicians including the former head of parliament and former key ambassadors have condemned the President’s policy

And that is still all well and good.

charging that by starting the open war against Russia,

Oh puhleeaze, not this again. The Rusisan military buildup, the considerable logistical reserves, the growing rebel activity, and eyewitness accounts all point to the idea that Georgia was aggressed upon and was caught in an attempted counterattack when the main Russian armor force came into theater.

Saakashvili essentially lost the two rogue provinces forever.

And that is all well and good. I have no qualms with legitimate opposition to Saaks, so long as it is within Democratic bounds. Hell, such a thing is NECESSARY to foster Georgian democracy.

But this still does not justify Russian actions.

Still, every opposition leader vows to restore the sovereignty of Georgia over the Republics currently occupied by Russia.

Surprise Surprise.

In this climate, the last thing the Russia wants is Saakashvili gone. He’s a completely discredited moron, whom you can safely ignore.

OK. Now all you need to do is tell Putin and his cabal that before they start another rant calling for Saaks to be executed.

If opposition comes to power, Russia cannot avoid negotiations with the new government, and hence they will have to go back to the discussions of very inconvenient topics.

Which is all well and good.

Only a madman or Ed Morrissey could imagine Russia wanting to annex the entire Georgia.

If that is the case, the world is made up of madmen.

And the Russian government in particular is filled with them.

Russia has a lot of problems in Chechnya and Dagestan as it is. Nobody in Russia wants another big problem in that region.

They could’ve fooled me, with their explicit declarations and the like.

Oh yes, and that lovely map you made?

You completely missed the point and obviously have no ability to comprehend images.

Sure, there are a lot of pipelines, but how many DON’T go through Russia and its Belarusian ally or Iran?

Not a damn lot.

And those are the pipelines that Europe depends on for its oil, particularly Eastern and Central Europe.

So it is ENTIRELY in Russia’s interests to conquer Georgia’s pipelines, because the issue is attempting to obtain a monopoly on gas between Russia and the Middle East to force Europe to kowtow to one of them.

There’re many reasons to be concerned about the situation in Georgia, and the US could play a larger role there, including to restrain Russia somewhat. However, some basic understanding of facts about the region seems to be a pre-requisite for any course of action that might follow.

That’s you main point? Well, fair enough.

But one should practice what one preaches.

lexhamfox:

Ok, so you aren’t a fan of Saaks either?

Well, fair enough.

But think about this:

While you can not wiat for Saaks to get tossed out of office, can we at least agree that it should not be through a window after being tossed by Spetznaz?

And while there are good reasons for the army to not want to follow Saaks, are they not bad ones as well?

The idea of an army captain using Russian threats to crown himself dictator is not a remote one.

Bush stood by and did nothing while bombs were raining in Georgia.

nice343 on May 5, 2009 at 8:58 AM

How do you know?

Quick, Obama, send them a reset button!

jgapinoy on May 5, 2009 at 8:49 AM

Rueful laughter around here.

Russia wants to play for the gas and oil pipelines coming out of the Caucasus, which mainly serve Europe. If Putin and Medvedev control Georgia’s energy output, they will control most of Europe’s imports — and therefore put itself in position to make the EU a vassal state of sorts to a new Russian empire. Even an engineered coup d’etat that puts a Putin lackey in charge of Georgia would be sufficient for those aims. Will NATO hold firm in its support for Georgia’s elected government, or will Europe and the Obama administration hit reverse?

Let’s see. This is the map of oil pipelines in Europe. Can you find Georgia on that map? Well, an assistant will point it to Ed, the rest of you can find Turkey-Iran border and then go north.

Wow. Isn’t it?

But surely, one will argue, this is somehow the magic alternative route that Russia is focused on to increase its influence on Europe.

Well, no. Russia is building alternative pipelines on the bottom on the Baltic sea with the specific purpose of excluding all “middlemen”.

Sure, sure, you say. This Nord Stream thing is important. But THEN it’s all about Georgia. Right?

*sigh* Wrong again.

In short, there are ways to increase Russian influence on Europe as far the energy is concerned. There are limits to that as well. Gas market is not very elastic short term but in longer terms there are alternatives. Plus, Russia has just learned the hard way that oil/gas prices don’t remain high forever. And even if they were, the guy who fills your tank never appears to be better off than you, no matter how scary the price at the gas station looks.

There’re many reasons to be concerned about the situation in Georgia, and the US could play a larger role there, including to restrain Russia somewhat. However, some basic understanding of facts about the region seems to be a pre-requisite for any course of action that might follow.

There are good reasons why the Georgian army is hesitating to follow him.

News just in – Warsaw Pact hasn’t existed for several years

callingallcomets on May 5, 2009 at 12:00 PM

And of course… totaly missed the point…

Still, every opposition leader vows to restore the sovereignty of Georgia over the Republics currently occupied by Russia. In this climate, the last thing the Russia wants is Saakashvili gone. He’s a completely discredited moron, whom you can safely ignore. If opposition comes to power, Russia cannot avoid negotiations with the new government, and hence they will have to go back to the discussions of very inconvenient topics.

Only a madman or Ed Morrissey could imagine Russia wanting to annex the entire Georgia. Russia has a lot of problems in Chechnya and Dagestan as it is. Nobody in Russia wants another big problem in that region.

How would WE feel if there were scheduled Warsaw Pact manuvers held in MEXICO? Right on our border?

The Russians have historicly had a concept of the “Near Abroad”… those states around it that they used as a buffer and tripwire… where they did not want other Powers to play…

News just in – Warsaw Pact hasn’t existed for several years

Wow, that’s excruciatingly naive. Clearly you don’t know anything about foreign policy. Foreign policy is never ever “straightforward”. It never has been. It never will be.

and it’s very sweet that you think russia can’t do any damage. They’ve been doing damage of all sorts since before the “straightforward” foreign policy days of the 70/80’s and they will continue to do damage now. Especially with Iran and North Korea being their back up.

Didnt say Russia was not a troublemaker but its not the same as the old soviet regime, could not afford massive armed forces even with oil money so more of an irritant looking to sting at the fringes. NATO was formed to counter a possible Russian invasion of Europe. An invasion now is not on the cards so possibly NATO needs to change. Iran/Pakistan is a more dangerous mix and totally unpredictable which is why the US should consider closer formal/informal links with India and China.
By straightforward I meant the cold war where military planning could identify the USSR as the major threat.
We are now moving to the world of 19th century international relations where there are no longer two major players but possibly 6/7 where groupings and alliances and ententes are constantly shifting. Its your characterisation of Russia as the main enemy which is naive and outdated.

How would WE feel if there were scheduled Warsaw Pact manuvers held in MEXICO? Right on our border?

The Russians have historicly had a concept of the “Near Abroad”… those states around it that they used as a buffer and tripwire… where they did not want other Powers to play…

So, what do we do? We hold NATO excercises in Georgia?

Sorry, its like pokeing a Bear in the eye…. and then wondering why it gets mad.