Mutiny in Georgia?
posted at 8:46 am on May 5, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
The beleaguered republic of Georgia claims to have stopped a military mutiny in its tracks, almost literally, as it squelched an uprising in one of its tank battalions. President Mikhail Saakashvili accuses Russia of plotting the rebellion as part of an assassination attempt. Russia calls the rebellion a response to the “crazy” policies of Saakashvili, but they haven’t left Georgia as they promised, either:
A tank battalion has mutinied at a military base near Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, the government has said.
Tanks and armoured personnel carriers are being sent to quell the rebellion at the Mukhrovani base, witnesses say.
The authorities say the mutiny is part of an attempted coup – linked to Russia and aimed at assassinating President Mikhail Saakashvili.
Russia’s envoy to Nato described the charges as “mad”. The trouble comes a day before Nato exercises in Georgia.
Georgia says that they’ve isolated the rebellion, and that they’ve followed the plot for two months before putting an end to it:
President Mikhail Saakashvili says a mutiny in a tank battalion based near Georgia’s capital is an isolated case and the situation in the country is fully under control.
The defense minister says the base where the mutiny occurred Tuesday has been sealed off.
The mutiny followed an announcement by the Interior Ministry that it had uncovered a Russia-supported plot to overthrow the government and had arrested the suspected organizer.
Saakashvili said in a televised address that the government was taking the mutiny seriously but it was an isolated incident. He said the situation in the country was under control.
Russia promised to leave Georgia as part of the peace agreement brokered by France. Thus far, they have reneged on that agreement. If they haven’t plotted to assassinate Saakashvili, they’ve certainly acted to destabilize him and attempt to absorb Georgia as a de facto satellite, if not annex it.
This eruption comes on the eve of NATO exercises with Georgia, which were meant to send a signal to Russia to back off. Russia has apparently sent a countersignal to NATO. Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev have openly criticized NATO engagement with Georgia, cooling relations with the military alliance since last summer over their support for Georgia. The mutiny may well convince NATO to postpone the exercises indefinitely, which only benefits Russia in this instance.
Russia wants to play for the gas and oil pipelines coming out of the Caucasus, which mainly serve Europe. If Putin and Medvedev control Georgia’s energy output, they will control most of Europe’s imports — and therefore put itself in position to make the EU a vassal state of sorts to a new Russian empire. Even an engineered coup d’etat that puts a Putin lackey in charge of Georgia would be sufficient for those aims. Will NATO hold firm in its support for Georgia’s elected government, or will Europe and the Obama administration hit reverse?










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We’re all Obama, now.
Speakup on May 5, 2009 at 12:21 PM
And of course… totaly missed the point…
Romeo13 on May 5, 2009 at 12:50 PM
Can’t wait until Saakashvili is thrown out of government.
There are good reasons why the Georgian army is hesitating to follow him.
lexhamfox on May 5, 2009 at 1:18 PM
Finally, something from Ed’s post that borders on downright insane.
Let’s see. This is the map of oil pipelines in Europe. Can you find Georgia on that map? Well, an assistant will point it to Ed, the rest of you can find Turkey-Iran border and then go north.
Wow. Isn’t it?
But surely, one will argue, this is somehow the magic alternative route that Russia is focused on to increase its influence on Europe.
Well, no. Russia is building alternative pipelines on the bottom on the Baltic sea with the specific purpose of excluding all “middlemen”.
Sure, sure, you say. This Nord Stream thing is important. But THEN it’s all about Georgia. Right?
*sigh* Wrong again.
In short, there are ways to increase Russian influence on Europe as far the energy is concerned. There are limits to that as well. Gas market is not very elastic short term but in longer terms there are alternatives. Plus, Russia has just learned the hard way that oil/gas prices don’t remain high forever. And even if they were, the guy who fills your tank never appears to be better off than you, no matter how scary the price at the gas station looks.
There’re many reasons to be concerned about the situation in Georgia, and the US could play a larger role there, including to restrain Russia somewhat. However, some basic understanding of facts about the region seems to be a pre-requisite for any course of action that might follow.
radiofreevillage on May 5, 2009 at 1:26 PM
Rueful laughter around here.
baldilocks on May 5, 2009 at 3:02 PM
How do you know?
baldilocks on May 5, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Wonderful.
And the parade of idioticy continues…:
nice343:
Nothing?
You call setting a tripwire and THREATENING the Russians with war if it were crossed NOTHING?
You call sending ammunition and aid to Tiblisi NOTHING?
Well, in that case, the response from your guy will be LESS than NOTHING.
Or are you honestly deluded enough to believe Obama will actually punish these Russian acts of Aggression?
ThackerAgency:
Are you TRYING to encourage these people?
French Fascists used the slogan “Do you want to die for Danzig?” to discourage the West from retaliating against Hitler’s agression, and in part caused the disaster of 1940.
I twas only later, after decades of appeasement and a year of crushing failure that people realized that YES, one MUST be willing to die for Danzig, for Warsaw, for Riga, for every two-bit city in Easter Europe if need be, to deter the wolves from feasting upon the sheep.
We have forgotten that lesson. And you have as well.
May both relearn it quickly, while there is still time.
Even if we are going to agree that hypothetically Saaks does not deserve our aid for whatever reason, do the innocent Georgians suffering under the Russian occupation and Ossetian/Abkhazian ethnic cleansing not deserve it?
More importantly, can we afford to ignore Russian attempts to strangle Europe’s oil?
And with its despicable and indefensible actions, you wonder WHY?
As would YOU, obviously.
Oh, and when will it be? How much of the Former Soviet Republics must be annexed? What percentage of Europe’s oil must be under the control of the Kremlin? How many missiles and soliders must the Kremlin put? How much nuclear material? When DOES Putin’s perfidy become “Our Fight,” oh wise one?
Um, perhaps because in the post-WWII world we realized that our European allies couldn’t play that game anymore, and that the only other candidate was Soviet Russia and its abhorrent agenda?
Because if we allow a burgeoning Democracy, a potential NATO member, and OUR loyal ally from Iraq to be reconquered by the Kremlin, it will send a message to the Islamists, to Beijing, and to Moscow.
And it is not a message you would like.
If one of those sides includes pro-Putin ultranationalists determined to hand the Caucasus over to Russia on a platter, and they win with overt Russian support, it will be.
That much is obvious.
Unfortunately, by the time a major power gets in a position to attack us, it will probably be too late. Which is why we must go over THERE and weaken the warlords before it becomes too late.
Obviously the clear flexing of Russian muscles, their view that it is a war against the US, the dependency of our European “allies” on Georgian oil, and Putin’s use of this to curry support are lost on you.
“It’s not our business. If anyone, it is the EU’s business. I’m tired of fighting wars for other countries and paying for it with money we don’t have.”
And so am I. But if given the choice between war and allowing the bloodied banner of tyranny- in whatever guise it may appear in- to stretch even further, let there be war.
ONLY if we do not destroy their ability to do so. Which we have no reason not to.
Agreed. Let us turn the Russian Black Sea fleet into artificial reefs and scorch ever Russian base into the ground, doubly so for air bases.
FINALLY a good idea! But if given the choice between a costly and somewhat inefficient limited war or capitulation to tyranny, is it not obvious which is the better, more honorable course of action?
So, the freedom and continued survival of our European allies, a humiliating strategic reverse for Russia, and security for the Central Asian pipelines are “nothing” to you?
Good idea. However, that will take time and mainly benefit us. Europe needs oil TODAY. And if we cannot save the lifelines from Central Asia to Europe from Russian aggression, cities from London to Kiev risk either surrender or a cold winter.
True, but one will take years to do, while the other will be immediate. And time is not on our side.
Nice idea, but we have to deal with the now. Let’s start drilling, but let us also start sending Tiblisi what it needs to survive. Or else we may not LAST long enough to enjoyour reserves.
This stupid, idiotic, and clichéd sentence utterly sums up your moronic, shortsighted, and amoral world view. The US does not loose anything by tossing a small, innocent, and loyal ally to the wolves of Russian despotism, and thousands of Georgian lives mean nothing to you so long as you are not inconvenienced.
Such stupidity will kill us all.
Um, maybe ecause EUROPE needs it if it is to escape Russian blackmail ,and WE need Europe, whether we like it or not.
No. You just spewed off garbage and made yourself look like a fool and worse: an amoral one.
Unfortunately, EUROPE DOES NOT HAVE THAT OIL. Central Asia DOES. And while we hardly use Central Asian oil, Europe absolutely DEPENDS on the stuff. And if Russia is allowed to dominate it, the results will be catastrophic.
But you just do not care, do you?
Knaves and fools will be the ruin of the West.
That depends? Did we occupy three quarters of Mexico on a false pretense while ethnically cleansing entire districts?
If Russia did not want other Powers to play there, THAN THEY SHOULDN’T HAVE BEEN KILLING THEM OFF FOR OVER A CENTURY, now SHOULDN’T they?
Absolutely. It is key to tell Putin that any further aggression must be opposed by the West, and that his bullying must stop.
No. It is getting a hunting rifle out and pointing it at the bear attempting to eat a toddler and warning it to back away or else.
radiofreevillage:
Oh yes, before I start, I would like to say that I STILL am waiting for your responses on the other threads.
The irony of a Class-A idiot saying this is literally toxic.
The Irony is THICK when you accuse someone of not knowing what is going on in Georgia WHEN YOU MISS THE FOREST FOR THE SAKE OF THE TREES: the problem Ed citied isn’t that Russia hasn’t withdrawn everywhere, including Ossetia and Abkhazia, it is that it is STILL IN GEORGIA PROPER, where they were UNDOUBTABLY NOT SUPPOSED TO BE!
Very cute, fool. No, they likely aren;t Russian dupes, though some of them may unknowingly be.
And that is all well and good, within Democratic lines. However, if Russia wants a coup (as it has repeatedly said), it must be opposed.
And that is still all well and good.
Oh puhleeaze, not this again. The Rusisan military buildup, the considerable logistical reserves, the growing rebel activity, and eyewitness accounts all point to the idea that Georgia was aggressed upon and was caught in an attempted counterattack when the main Russian armor force came into theater.
And that is all well and good. I have no qualms with legitimate opposition to Saaks, so long as it is within Democratic bounds. Hell, such a thing is NECESSARY to foster Georgian democracy.
But this still does not justify Russian actions.
Surprise Surprise.
OK. Now all you need to do is tell Putin and his cabal that before they start another rant calling for Saaks to be executed.
Which is all well and good.
If that is the case, the world is made up of madmen.
And the Russian government in particular is filled with them.
They could’ve fooled me, with their explicit declarations and the like.
Oh yes, and that lovely map you made?
You completely missed the point and obviously have no ability to comprehend images.
Sure, there are a lot of pipelines, but how many DON’T go through Russia and its Belarusian ally or Iran?
Not a damn lot.
And those are the pipelines that Europe depends on for its oil, particularly Eastern and Central Europe.
So it is ENTIRELY in Russia’s interests to conquer Georgia’s pipelines, because the issue is attempting to obtain a monopoly on gas between Russia and the Middle East to force Europe to kowtow to one of them.
There’re many reasons to be concerned about the situation in Georgia, and the US could play a larger role there, including to restrain Russia somewhat. However, some basic understanding of facts about the region seems to be a pre-requisite for any course of action that might follow.That’s you main point? Well, fair enough.
But one should practice what one preaches.
lexhamfox:
Ok, so you aren’t a fan of Saaks either?
Well, fair enough.
But think about this:
While you can not wiat for Saaks to get tossed out of office, can we at least agree that it should not be through a window after being tossed by Spetznaz?
And while there are good reasons for the army to not want to follow Saaks, are they not bad ones as well?
The idea of an army captain using Russian threats to crown himself dictator is not a remote one.
Turtler on May 5, 2009 at 5:55 PM
Ok, on that last comment, the scratching out was unintended.
Turtler on May 5, 2009 at 6:28 PM
One of those guys who takes a deep breath in the morning and can’t shut up all day.
Speakup on May 5, 2009 at 7:40 PM
Thank you Turtler. Was afraid this horse-puckey was going to go unanswered.
To radiofreevillage et al: Do you dispute this point (or its relevance) in the slightest?
RD on May 5, 2009 at 9:30 PM
Wow, I thought it was Georgia, USA because since the government is in charge of the auto industry they would suspend all spending on NASCAR. Now that would cause a stir.
workingforpigs on May 5, 2009 at 10:39 PM
Wow, I thought it was Georgia, USA because since the government is in charge of the auto industry they would suspend all spending on NASCAR. Now that would cause a stir.
workingforpigs on May 5, 2009 at 10:39 PM
Wow, I thought it was Georgia, USA because since the government is in charge of the auto industry they would suspend all spending on NASCAR. Now that would cause a stir.
workingforpigs on May 5, 2009 at 10:39 PM
Wow, I thought it was Georgia, USA because since the government is in charge of the auto industry they would suspend all spending on NASCAR. Now that would cause a stir.
workingforpigs on May 5, 2009 at 10:39 PM
Wow, I thought it was Georgia, USA because since the government is in charge of the auto industry they would suspend all spending on NASCAR. Now that would cause a stir.
workingforpigs on May 5, 2009 at 10:39 PM
workingforpigs:
Once is funny.
Five times is spam.
Turtler on May 5, 2009 at 10:44 PM
It looks like Turtler already addressed radiofreevillage’s stream-of-idiocy comment on the pipelines to Europe. Umm, yeah. From the Caspian Sea, they go through Russia or Georgia. So, yes, short answer: it is about Georgia, gas-wise.
That doesn’t mean it’s all about gas, Georgia-wise. Georgia has some fine real estate on the Black Sea that Great Russia would like to get back (Moscow has already staked out a big chunk of it with the occupation of Abkhazia). Georgia is the strip of land between Russia and Turkey — the NATO ally that administers the Turkish Straits, the Black Sea’s outlet to the Mediterranean. The more Russia tells Georgia what to do, the harder Turkey has to think about her priorities and security situation.
Pushing Russian coastal frontage back down the eastern side of the Black Sea increases her leverage over Ukraine, where Russia already operates Sevastopol and has no intention of respecting Kiev’s sovereignty.
De facto Russian rule of Georgia closes off options for recalcitrant locals further inland, as in Nagorno-Karabakh. It’s a measure to “encourager les autres,” where “les autres” are the “Stans” of Central Asia. “Fall in line with Moscow, or this could be you next year.”
There are a number of considerations other than the gas pipelines. But the gas pipelines are as important as those other considerations. For Moscow under Putin and Medvedev, gas extortion and extending Russian control around the Black Sea are a package deal.
J.E. Dyer on May 5, 2009 at 11:49 PM
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