Pakistan: We don’t believe our own intel service, either
posted at 2:15 pm on April 27, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
Share on Facebook | printer-friendly
How bad is the credibility of Pakistan’s ISI these days? Even their own government doesn’t trust them. As Bill Roggio points out, their latest announcement — that Osama bin Laden is dead — even has President Ali Zardari reminding people that American intel on their own country is more reliable than what he sees from the ISI:
President Asif Ali Zardari said Monday that Pakistani intelligence believes Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is dead but acknowledged they had no evidence.
“The Americans tell me they don’t know, and they are much more equipped than us to trace him. And our own intelligence services obviously think that he does not exist any more, that he is dead,” Zardari told reporters.
“But there is no evidence, you cannot take that as a fact,” he said. “We are between facts and fiction.”
Osama could be dead. He could be alive. The problem with trusting the ISI’s conclusion is that they have a huge stake in convincing people of the former. They’d like nothing better than to declare Osama dead and get some of the international heat off of Pakistan — and the ISI itself, which has been thoroughly infiltrated by Islamic extremists sympathetic to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
As Bill also points out, that heat has risen considerably over the last few months. Obama has raised the profile of the Af-Pak War, by increasing American troop levels in the theater and by failing to get more combat troops from our NATO partners. Pakistani intel would like nothing better than to give Europe enough excuse to push for an end to the Afghanistan mission. If Osama’s dead, they might think, it would be easier for the West to declare victory and go home.
I’m agnostic on Osama’s body temperature, but his death won’t end the danger from al-Qaeda in any case. Hopefully, NATO and Obama understand that much. So far, Obama’s done reasonably well on the Af-Pak War, but he might get cold feet if his European partners start backing away.
Update: It’s hard to top Tom Maguire’s take: “Although I don’t speak Austrian, I believe a more complete translation of their announcement is “Osama is dead already, so go away and leave us alone”.”
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages:
There’s a story on the mil-blogs that Osama died in November 2001. Can’t remember which one but the link I read was either from hotair or ace.
gh on April 27, 2009 at 2:25 PM
You would need an electron microscope to ID the remains. As well as a great deal earthmoving equipment, and plenty of time/money.
Vashta.Nerada on April 27, 2009 at 2:27 PM
I’m agnostic too.
But I certainly don’t believe the kidney dialysis junk. Miniter did a thorough debunking of all that
blatantblue on April 27, 2009 at 2:31 PM
he’s been worm-bait for a long time now. they’re not getting off that easy, though.
homesickamerican on April 27, 2009 at 2:31 PM
Fat chance of that…
I pray that Obama has some sort of plan to disable those nukes before the Taliban takes over the capitol. Can you imagine a nuclear Taliban?
Good-bye, Israel. Good-bye, New York. Goodbye, Copenhagen, that’ll teach you to disrespect Mohammad.
petunia on April 27, 2009 at 2:33 PM
OBL = Mr. Irrelavent.
Akzed on April 27, 2009 at 2:33 PM
This is kind of my point about talking about torture. In that part of the world, they expect their government to be corrupt. . . it always is. The people in power do whatever it takes to stay in power.
America talking about torture, bringing it up, talking about the few criminals that took pictures while posing prisoners, and talking about our interrogation techniques don’t matter to the part of the world that our politicians say they matter to.
Even if we say we are ‘cleaning everything up’, they won’t believe it. They’ll still believe that we ARE torturing, and that we ARE doing much more than we let on. Releasing these new pictures and memos only gives them another recruiting tool.
Americans need to stop talking about torture period. People love sausage, but they don’t want to see how it’s made. We need to let the sausage makers make their sausage and keep us safe without calling Americans criminals.
ThackerAgency on April 27, 2009 at 2:34 PM
At least this report is being treated with the skepticism it deserves by all interested parties. The ISI should not be dismissed as being useless in the efforts to combat AQ… it has a vital role, but clearly they have issues and it is no surprise that the civilian leadership in Pakistan has doubts about the ISI.
lexhamfox on April 27, 2009 at 2:35 PM
Someone made the point that we know OBL is dead because Obama hasn’t set up a meet and greet with him yet. I wonder how low he would bow.
petunia on April 27, 2009 at 2:39 PM
What a mess.
AnninCA on April 27, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Pulling pitch.
Take care Hot Air folks and take care of business on the home front.
(I’d like to think I’ll still have my weapons when I get back home)
hawkdriver on April 27, 2009 at 2:40 PM
I think UBL has been dead a very long time, but we won’t say one way or another without DNA
Sekhmet on April 27, 2009 at 2:42 PM
that figures… the only use of the word agnostic in hotair history and it’s in relation to Osama Bin Laden…
at least Ed knows the word. but Ed… why can’t you just have faith in the idea? or would that require proof?
Kaptain Amerika on April 27, 2009 at 2:46 PM
“They’d like nothing better than to declare Osama dead and get some of the international heat off of Pakistan — and the ISI itself, which has been thoroughly infiltrated by Islamic extremists sympathetic to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.”
That’s only half-correct – the ISI has not been “infiltrated” by Islamic extremists – it has always been composed of them – they have been this way since the days of Zia who openly Islamized the military to keep himself in power.
The ISI created, indoctrinated,trained and helped the Taliban (the Wahhabi Saudis funded them) come to power in the early to mid 90’s when a supposedly liberal Benazir Bhutto was PM of Pakistan. These guys were the mujahideen that fought Soviet occupation.
Pakistan basically treated Afghanistan as its near abroad until 9/11 happened – and they had to obviously reverse course for a little bit.
But the fundamental equations remain the same – Pakistan and Afghanistan have been at loggerheads over who actually owns the NWFP territory since 1947 – Pakistan has tried to Islamize the Pakthuns to suppress their nationalist feelings and have largely succeeded.
Pakistan military is terrified of a stable and united Afghanistan next to it. nothing more. nothing less.
nagee76 on April 27, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Hey, now you take good care of yourself out there dear friend. And thanks for your service.
Don’t forget to check in when you get the chance!
Knucklehead on April 27, 2009 at 2:47 PM
HawkDriver… are you shipping out?
if so.. stay safe! come home soon…
Kaptain Amerika on April 27, 2009 at 2:48 PM
The White House made several mistakes in the 90’s…the first being their total fixation on arresting Osama, and the other was falling into the ISI trap of active support for ISI in their search to allegedly find and arrest Osama at our behest. At the same time totally ignoring the failed state of Afghanistan becoming a hotbed of Arab-driven jihad…and not just AQ.
Several years ago, Bush said capturing Osama was no longer the main priority, and the usual suspects pilloried him for weeks on end about that gem of real truth. Still hear that “gee, so did Bush get Osama yet?” stuff. Dead or alive, Osama matters less and less each passing week.
Musharraf saw readily the danger of ISI playing the US, the Russians, the Taliban, al-Qaeda, several factions of the Afghan “resistance,” India and even the Pakistani government off against each other garning support, arms, sophisticated equipment and tons of money from donors ranging from the Saudi’s and the Sultan of Brunei to the US Administration and even clandestinely, the Russians.
Each nation having their own agenda that overlapped from time to time ISI’s own agenda, none ever in control of any aspect of the ISI Zia al-Huq created and Benazir Bhutto grew into the pervasive organization it became.
Back in 2002 as we were well into the War in Afghanistan, Musharraf purged hundreds of Islamacist ISI officers…and there were still many who opposed Musharraf, giving loyalty to the ISI first, and to Musharraf second, if that, and to Pakistan…well, way way down the list. And Musharraf struggled to balance a stable Pakistan, build an economic viable Pakistan, and curb the Islamists, who by the mid-2000’s had even pervaded senior levels of the Pakistani military…one convert at a time.
A careful examination is needed in what Musharraf tried to do to shut down the Islamists running an ISI. The ISI had mutated to become a law unto itself, and no longer a subordinate intelligence and security apparatus. Such a careful examination will show that Musharraf made few friends in Pakistan by trying to reel in the ISI.
And doing so got Musharaf what? Being labeled often a mere puppet of the US, or worse. By Pakistanis. By Europe. By America.
Sadly, when the leadership and elites in America came to believe that Muisharraf was nothing but a puppet, they cut his strings…forced the chaos of Benazir Bhutto on Pakistan in the name of enlightenment and real democracy…and then things in Pakistan took a real turn for the worse. far worse than under previous regimes.
This is the Pakistan Ali Zadari now has to try to re-cobble together.
Pakistani President Ali Zardari cannot trust the intelligence provided by the ISI because the ISI, following Musharraf’s removal, has become even more Islamicized, and even more in bed with the Taliban, and is no longer an intelligence service.
The ISI is presently no more than a heavily-armed well-trained paramilitary group, run by war lords, who seek the destruction of the Islamabad government and replacing it with one of their own.
We best start paying real attention to the on the ground players, or wash our hands of all of it and try to comfort ourselves when a greater Islamacist caliphate is created from Sindh up through the Khyber and into former Soviet Central Asia.
In trying to find the perfect horse…we killed a good horse, and are now backing a weak horse.
No horse sense in that sort of policy at all.
coldwarrior on April 27, 2009 at 2:48 PM
Head down, but I don’t need to tell you that.
Let me know if you need some stuff.. candy, wipes, any supplies. I would be happy to send you what you need… i think I can get others up here to do the same.
upinak on April 27, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Yep, I call BS too! I wouldn’t trust the Pak’s or the ISI anymore than I would trust the BS coming out of getalife’s mouth!
The Pak’s and the ISI are attempting to get the US to pack up and go home which means the predator drone attacks are working!
I say increase the number of predator attacks to really start turning up the heat and see which AQ cockroaches come scurrying out from their holes, then whack em!
Liberty or Death on April 27, 2009 at 2:50 PM
An atomised OBL WOULD be much easier to get ignition and a complete burn in Hell.
44Magnum on April 27, 2009 at 2:51 PM
Doesn’t matter if bin Laden is dead or not. The Taliban are still expanding all over northwestern Pakistan, the better to position themselves to counter an American/NATO “surge” in Afghanistan.
It was never our main mission in that area to hunt down bin Laden. Nor should it have been. Wahhabism in the world’s nastiest spots will go on beautifully without him. The Taliban are maneuvering to put a gun to Islamabad’s head, and separate Pakistan from cooperation with the US and NATO. That’s what matters.
J.E. Dyer on April 27, 2009 at 2:54 PM
hawkdriver, Godspeed and listen for our prayers.
thomasaur on April 27, 2009 at 2:59 PM
Don’t do anything too reckless while in country, Hawk
Come back safe. We will all be thinking about you. That’s a given.
Best of luck and safety, akhii (brother).
blatantblue on April 27, 2009 at 2:59 PM
ED, the ISI created the taliban. They are not infiltrated, they are partnered. It is way past time the west began to doubt every word and deed coming out of
Muslim Pakistan.
They have been suckering the west since they stole a chunk of India. They are worthless allies and worthless people made stupid and cruel by Islam.
BL@KBIRD on April 27, 2009 at 3:00 PM
Do you know a location to ship a care package for Hawk? I have some books I’d like to send.
Knucklehead on April 27, 2009 at 3:01 PM
Hawk I know you said you might not be able to get on HA in country but maybe u can email someone from the site and they can pass the word on to us.
blatantblue on April 27, 2009 at 3:04 PM
Because of obvious security concerns, unless you have a member of the armed forces deployed in your family, sending a package to service members overseas has been limited to a handful of vetted outfits.
There are several, the one I’ve used a number of times is:
Operation Gratitude.
Have had select items shipped to a particular soldier or Marine through them, and have made donations to send “care packages” to others.
Hawk…good luck out there. Take notes. Take pictures. There’s a good book or two in it for you. All the best to you.
coldwarrior on April 27, 2009 at 3:07 PM
Take care and we look forward to you coming back safe and sound. Thank you for your service!!
Nuts4koi on April 27, 2009 at 3:09 PM
OT: Anyone who just wants to help out to our brave men and women in uniform. Any Soldier.
UBL isnt in hell yet. I take heart in knowing sooner or later he will be. I hope our soldiers take him out when they catch him,because I wouldnt want anyone in the military or CIA accused of torturing him. I definitely dont want the taxpayers paying for him to sit in cushy prisons for decades or take the chance of him being released for any reason. Just bring us his head,burn the rest.
canditaylor68 on April 27, 2009 at 3:09 PM
Pakistan telegraphing Countdown to their demise?
Dr Evil on April 27, 2009 at 3:12 PM
Does it really matter? The last time whacking Osama would have been really helpful in stemming the global jihad was 1996-1998 when he was writing fatwas.
Beagle on April 27, 2009 at 3:13 PM
Zardari: “Hmm, let’s see… 10 percent of nothing is… carry the zero… oh yeah, NOTHING!”
mojo on April 27, 2009 at 3:15 PM
hawkdriver
Take care and good luck.
coldwarrior on April 27, 2009 at 2:48 PM
Thanks for the clarity.
Osama is/was just the messenger, Islam is the message.
BL@KBIRD on April 27, 2009 at 3:24 PM
What happens if Osama does get caught, does he go to a prison in Hardin Montana?
Dr Evil on April 27, 2009 at 3:24 PM
if obl is still alive, we need to get him socialized healthcare now!
kelley in virginia on April 27, 2009 at 3:30 PM
If the ISI says Osama is dead, show us the body.
In the meantime, somebody needs to prevent the Taliban from getting its hands on Pakistani nukes, which would be a much worse danger than Osama hiding in a Pakistani cave.
Steve Z on April 27, 2009 at 3:30 PM
Obama, no.
Each branch of the military, yes.
Count to 10 on April 27, 2009 at 3:42 PM
Obscure movie line reference:
“Billions of Cat atoms scattered across the universe”.
44Magnum on April 27, 2009 at 3:43 PM
Well, does anyone not getting checks from the CIA trust them to do their jobs?
I R A Darth Aggie on April 27, 2009 at 4:07 PM
Obama is commander-in-chief. The real question is would he ever authorize our military to go after Pakistan’s bombs if they are likely to be taken by the Taliban. I seriously doubt that fits his “grovel before all other’s” foreign policy.
Obama doesn’t have the guts Bush did.
We are not safe.
petunia on April 27, 2009 at 4:25 PM
There will be no way to tell if he died or not. The last several voice tapes from him have been fakes. His articulation, intonation, rate, intensity, voice, and resonance are way off. When the IC runs his voice print through a computer the algorithm is only programed to look at key areas and exclude others. A 98% accuracy rate is really about 8% accurate.
0321_GUY on April 28, 2009 at 11:26 AM
Comment pages: