Deadline: Dems will nuke filibuster if health-care reform doesn’t pass by October 15

posted at 7:49 pm on April 24, 2009 by Allahpundit

So says TNR. They want this to be bipartisan, of course, the same way they wanted the stimulus to be “bipartisan” — i.e. the GOP getting little in return for voting yes and thereby giving the left political cover in case the program stinks — but they’re not going to wait forever. If there’s no deal by October 15, they’ll invoke “reconciliation” and push it through with a simple majority in the Senate. They’ve got the votes and, evidently, the political will. Nothing left to do now except wait and watch the inevitable decline of American health care.

The reonciliation instruction specifies a date. That date, according to one congressional staffer, is October 15. (The original House reconciliation instruction had a late September deadline.)

In other words, the House and Senate each have until that day to pass health care legislation.

If they haven’t, then both houses will consider health care under the reconciliation process, which is relevant primarily for the way it affects the Senate. There will be a limit on the time of debate. Republicans won’t be able to filibuster it.

So there’s still a chance for bipartisanship, which is what both Obama and Democratic leaders want–or, at least, what they say they want. But if bipartisanship doesn’t work, then Dems can pass this on their own. They won’t even need Ben Nelson.

The GOP is threatening to make life hell for Reid procedurally if they follow through on this, but as David Freddoso explains, there’s not much they can do to stop it. Read his whole post; it’s a valuable primer on “reconciliation,” a topic we’re all going to become very familiar with as this debate gets going. Using it to bust the filibuster is actually an abuse of what it was intended for, but then the same could be said of the filibuster itself. Exit quotation from Paul Ryan: “This takes mission creep to a whole new level. Now they’re talking about the possible nationalization of 17 percent of our economy in health care, 8 percent of the economy in energy, and the largest tax increase in history — all through a process which will have between 35 and 105 total hours of debate between the House and the Senate . . . That’s an enormous power grab.”


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One thing that we haven’t been talking about much in the past three weeks is the economy. I think some of these big banks are much worse off than Obama and Geithner are letting on. Then you add the summertime shutdowns at GM, Chrysler’s bankruptcy, and GM’s likely backruptcy, and I think it’s going to be a miserable summer with no end in sight.

Then you add one or more international problems–take your pick–and these witchhunts. He’s got the votes, but I don’t think he’s got the popular opinion for expensive health care and energy programs as unemployment skyrockets and net worth has been virtually cut in half.

I think middle America will have had it with him by fall.

BuckeyeSam on April 24, 2009 at 10:10 PM

All the little infringments on our freedoms that we’ve become accustomed to being likened to nails, I’d have to say that nationalized health care and green policies are railroad spikes. These are the issues that can do in the America we know and love. The control the federal government would have on our ability to live as we wish would be utterly complete.
But don’t think these seemingly incompetent, over-reaching leftists are unintelligent. Much of the building blocks for these oppressive programs will be left up to the “A”s, (EPA, FDA), whose ability to regulate with the force of law and their already existant bereaucracy give our lawmakers cover. After all, it’s out of their hands. And that authority to regulate is and was expanded in seemingly innocuous paragraphs tucked into bills never read before being voted.
Mark my words, if the Republicans dont squeal like stuck pigs and fight like rabid dogs to stop this, they may as well not exist. The next step to reclaiming America the Free won’t be political.

OneEyedJack on April 24, 2009 at 10:13 PM

Might as well get rid of Presidential term limits too, you know, for the good of the country in these perilous times.

Bishop on April 24, 2009 at 8:00 PM

That is what worries me most. They have nothing to stop them now, from shredding the constitution. Will they pass laws that put them in ultimate power, for life?

capejasmine on April 24, 2009 at 10:17 PM

Dems will nuke filibuster if health-care reform doesn’t pass by October 15
health-care reform will nuke Dems by October 15 (fixed that)

realitycheck on April 24, 2009 at 10:22 PM

If Obamacare is passed, the United States of America is finished.

You can vote for whoever you want in 2010, but it won’t matter.

-Dave

Dave R. on April 24, 2009 at 10:25 PM

The day this and/or amnesty become law is the day I become a very real enemy of the state.

dmann on April 24, 2009 at 9:53 PM

All these elite, socialist Washington corruptocrats who think that the Tea Parties were just a lot of empty symbolism have a wake-up call coming.

realitycheck on April 24, 2009 at 10:27 PM

I have that same thought whenever I see the latest opinion poll. That’s one of the reasons I think the daily “horror story” about government health care would be effective. So many of the people who need converting on this issue are the overly self involved who only care about something if it affects them. If we can bring home the reality of this legislation for them with these stories, then maybe they’ll get involved in the fight (or at least tell the next pollster that they aren’t so sure they want this “reform”).

dfwaggie on April 24, 2009 at 10:00 PM

The GOP has GOT to bring in the non-voters who typically ignore politics, based on this issue and how it WILL impact them, both on the tax side and the actual care side. I think there are enough people who are satisfied with either the current system or what free-market reforms could look like to make this a winning issue for the GOP, but they need to be aggressive.

If they did it right, by October 15th the Dems wouldn’t want to pass their turd of a bill.

venividivici on April 24, 2009 at 10:28 PM

Republicans can pretty much shut down the operation of the government if they have the cojones to do it.

But that’s always the problem.

drjohn on April 24, 2009 at 10:34 PM

I work in the health care industry for one of the best hospitals in the world. I believe we have more doctors from different countries because they want to be away from socalized medicine. Now we’re going to screw up the country and bring socialized medicine here.

Goodbye USA as we know it.

deidre on April 24, 2009 at 10:39 PM

The GOP has GOT to bring in the non-voters who typically ignore politics, based on this issue and how it WILL impact them, both on the tax side and the actual care side. I think there are enough people who are satisfied with either the current system or what free-market reforms could look like to make this a winning issue for the GOP, but they need to be aggressive.

If they did it right, by October 15th the Dems wouldn’t want to pass their turd of a bill.

venividivici on April 24, 2009 at 10:28 PM

I totally agree. This is an issue I think the Republicans have a real chance of winning, if nothing else because it’s relatable. People dread going to the doctor and dealing with bureaucrats. Government health care isn’t inherently a winning combo by any means.

dfwaggie on April 24, 2009 at 10:45 PM

In TN, it was never ever what is was touted to be, and it was (to use a favorite word of the wackos) “unsustainable”.

ddrintn on April 24, 2009 at 9:25 PM

I only know what I read here and there. I thought it was modeled on “Hillarycare”. No?

venividivici on April 24, 2009 at 9:42 PM

Essentially, yes. It was state-as-HMO, and sank into an abyss of mismanagement, Waste Fraud And Abuse. The costs were staggering.

ddrintn on April 24, 2009 at 10:46 PM

When they fuck up the energy and welfare systems, the Democrats can then put on their Brown Shirts with impunity. Perhaps they’ll celebrate at a bonfire rally. Obama can burn the 1st copy of the Constitution.

GarandFan on April 24, 2009 at 10:51 PM

I totally agree. This is an issue I think the Republicans have a real chance of winning, if nothing else because it’s relatable. People dread going to the doctor and dealing with bureaucrats. Government health care isn’t inherently a winning combo by any means.

dfwaggie on April 24, 2009 at 10:45 PM

During the Daschle confirmation hearings and the stimulus debate, there was already an uproar about restricting care to the elderly on the basis of it being too costly for the amount of time they had to live, on average. Now, if pushing back against that sort of mentality, which is the essence of government “care”, isn’t a winning issue, I don’t know what is. We all gotta go, but none of us want a bureaucrat deciding when it’s time.

venividivici on April 24, 2009 at 10:57 PM

When they fuck up the energy and welfare systems, the Democrats can then put on their Brown Shirts with impunity. Perhaps they’ll celebrate at a bonfire rally. Obama can burn the 1st copy of the Constitution.

GarandFan on April 24, 2009 at 10:51 PM

He may as well burn it. He lied when he took to the oath to defend it, and is bypassing, or outright ignoring it, every time he makes a move.

He’s destroying this country, and happily so.

capejasmine on April 24, 2009 at 10:59 PM

During the Daschle confirmation hearings and the stimulus debate, there was already an uproar about restricting care to the elderly on the basis of it being too costly for the amount of time they had to live, on average. Now, if pushing back against that sort of mentality, which is the essence of government “care”, isn’t a winning issue, I don’t know what is. We all gotta go, but none of us want a bureaucrat deciding when it’s time.

venividivici on April 24, 2009 at 10:57 PM

Great point. Do you know what the AARP’s position is on health care reform? I can’t imagine too many retired people would be excited about the government deciding it’s time to phase them out. A constituency motivated (and probably with the time) to bombard DC with phone calls and emails. I like where you are going with this…

dfwaggie on April 24, 2009 at 11:03 PM

Well, if it’s a done political deal, just wait a few months for the shit to hit the fan…

If Obamacare passes as it currently discussed, you might have lots of folks moving to cheap taxpayer coverage of some sort, but that won’t guarantee any doctor will seem Obamacare patients any more than they can be forced to take Medicaid, SCHIP or Medicare patients which routinely pay less than 40% of the cost of regular care.

Sure, they can try enslaving the health care profession with threats of this or that. Soon the health profession will unionize and then go a strike. So much for the notion of Dems paying top dollar to union folks…

My suggestion, just don’t plan on getting sick while on Obamacare — it’s going to be a long sick bumpy ride for the suckers that sign up for that turkey…

droofus on April 24, 2009 at 11:09 PM

Eventually we must go back to the voters. Ultimately we the people have brought this upon ourselves through our ignorance and apathy.

Mojave Mark on April 24, 2009 at 11:22 PM

Great point. Do you know what the AARP’s position is on health care reform? I can’t imagine too many retired people would be excited about the government deciding it’s time to phase them out. A constituency motivated (and probably with the time) to bombard DC with phone calls and emails. I like where you are going with this…

dfwaggie on April 24, 2009 at 11:03 PM

AARP is sorta fickle on “big government”. On the one hand, they definitely don’t want anyone touching the benefits due to their members, but on the other, they know that if rationing comes, their members will be hit hardest. A lot of their leadership comes from the realm of government, though. Their membership, a lot of them Boomers, are suspicious of any sort of for-profit enterprise. I only know this because I actually had a work project that required that I get to know the AARP very well.

To me, the health care issue illustrates a fundamental divide between the people who think free markets are the best solution to most problems and those who don’t. As a supporter of free markets, I look at all the uninsured and see an opportunity (kinda like Walgreens is doing with their walk-in clinics for people who are looking for simple diagnoses or treatment with no insurance involved) and the left sees a problem only government can solve.

venividivici on April 24, 2009 at 11:26 PM

and the left sees a problem only government can solve.

venividivici on April 24, 2009 at 11:26 PM

I worked for the federal government right out of law school but eventually left for private practice. No question but that a for-profit is far more efficient at getting the job done. I have often thought our society would be better off if everyone had the opportunity I had to contrast the two environments.

There are plenty of smart, well intentioned people who work for the federal government, but they aren’t allowed to perform their jobs effectively because of the massive paperwork and inane bureaucratic process.

And don’t think anyone is rewarded for finding a way to save costs. You spend what (if anything) you have left over in your budget at the end of the fiscal year because you certainly don’t want them to give you less in the future.

dfwaggie on April 24, 2009 at 11:54 PM

Republicans can pretty much shut down the operation of the government if they have the cojones to do it.

But that’s always the problem.

drjohn on April 24, 2009 at 10:34 PM

The Republicans did this back in 1995, and unfortunately it blew up in their face. Clinton demagogued, the drive-bys ran sob story after sob story about how the average American can’t go to the bathroom without the government unzipping them first, and the public responded very negatively.

It was considered the first major defeat of the Contract With America Republicans.

Kensington on April 25, 2009 at 12:09 AM

There are plenty of smart, well intentioned people who work for the federal government, but they aren’t allowed to perform their jobs effectively because of the massive paperwork and inane bureaucratic process.

dfwaggie on April 24, 2009 at 11:54 PM

One of my jobs was at one of the big public accounting firms. We had our pick of accounting grads, and some of the rest went to the IRS. You are correct, obviously, that a good number of intelligent individuals end up working for the government, for whatever reason. What is crazy is that those individuals, or their bosses, take that random fact and try to spin it into some massive mandate for whatever government is selling that day.

venividivici on April 25, 2009 at 12:12 AM

I’m going to puke.

This kind of power grab is what Obama’s lap dogs want the rest of the country to take lying down?

Oh, wait, I forgot:

[sarc]ITS ALL BUSH’S FAULT!!! BUUUUUSHHH!!!! BUUUUUSHHHH!!!!! WAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!! [/sarc]

Ryan Gandy on April 25, 2009 at 12:24 AM

One of my jobs was at one of the big public accounting firms. We had our pick of accounting grads, and some of the rest went to the IRS. You are correct, obviously, that a good number of intelligent individuals end up working for the government, for whatever reason. What is crazy is that those individuals, or their bosses, take that random fact and try to spin it into some massive mandate for whatever government is selling that day.

venividivici on April 25, 2009 at 12:12 AM

Agreed. I think it’s Rush who says it doesn’t matter how smart you are if your ideology is wrong.

dfwaggie on April 25, 2009 at 12:29 AM

I’d like to thank all the “It takes a Carter to get a Reagan” idiots for sitting this one out/

clnurnberg on April 25, 2009 at 12:37 AM

Oh and you Chris Buckley, David Frum types too.

Yep, that Palin woman would have undermined the foundations of our system.

clnurnberg on April 25, 2009 at 12:39 AM

There will be a limit on the time of debate.

Would the Dems have it any other way?

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 12:41 AM

There will be a limit on the time of debate.

Would the Dems have it any other way?

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 12:41 AM

Yes. They’d prefer no debate.

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 12:46 AM

Yes. They’d prefer no debate.

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 12:46 AM

I have no doubt whatsoever that they are working on that.

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 12:54 AM

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 12:54 AM

I confess that I am a right-wing extremist, per DHS. And I know you are too. So, I’m awaiting to be frog marched for my water-boarding.

And I hope all is very, very well with you, before you’re frog marched off as well.

I am so glad you replied. Merci.

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 1:08 AM

How is this a power grab if Obama campaigned on this?
How will the GOP reach out to the 45+million Americans without health insurance to convince them that a national healthcare plan is not in their best interest? (And actually, now that i think about it, that 45 million number is before the credit collapse and loss of 2 million jobs, so i imagine that number is higher now.)

okonkolo on April 25, 2009 at 1:14 AM

Tree of Liberty’s looking a little puny lately, eh?

Midas on April 25, 2009 at 1:21 AM

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 1:08 AM

De rien, et merci a vous aussi.

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 1:27 AM

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 1:27 AM

J’avais peur que mon humour étrange vous ait offensés et vous ne me parleriez pas de nouveau. Alors j’ai été inquiété vous étiez malades.

Évidemment, étant donné mon cerveau, j’ai décidé de le donner à la science après que je meurs, mais ils m’ont dit qu’ils n’ont pas besoin plus des idiots.

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 1:38 AM

I’m sure AARP will be shocked when Medicare is folded into the new government system, and its clients start being denied treatments.

PattyJ on April 25, 2009 at 1:42 AM

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 1:38 AM

En fait, j’etais un peu confusee par ca… Mais j’etais tres occupee aussi, la vie n’est pas facile…

Personne veut mon cerveau non plus!

Vous avez une tres forte logiciel de traduction, ou vous etes un francophone vous-meme! Dit vrai!

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 1:52 AM

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 1:52 AM

Je ne peux imaginer personne être troublé par n’importe quoi que je dis. Je suis aussi clair que la boue. Mais, je n’ai jamais l’intention de provoquer sonfusion ou le mal.

Je suis heureux que vous soyez occupés.

Quant au français, quels que soit vous dites. Je capitule!

(Beaucoup de rires!)

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 1:58 AM

sonfusion = confusion

(L’avant-première est mon ami.)

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 2:00 AM

Maquis on April 25, 2009 at 1:52 AM

Oui. La vie peut être très difficile. Je regrette que ce soit ainsi. Il y a des moments qui sont très sombres, avec beaucoup d’incertitude et douleur. Je voudrais vous être utile, mais regretter que je ne sache pas comment. Et j’avoue que je ne comprends pas beaucoup de français. J’essaie parce que je crois que cela pourrait être utile à vous. Surtout, puisque l’anglais est aussi très difficile pour moi.

Jusqu’à ce que nous nous rencontrions de nouveau. Soyez bons à vous. Bonne nuit.

Loxodonta on April 25, 2009 at 2:26 AM

Destroy America, come hell or high water. The Democrats plan. Hey look at the bright side, they used to lynch their political opponents.

tarpon on April 25, 2009 at 8:03 AM

I really have just lost all hope. I got nothing.

Gatsu on April 24, 2009 at 9:56 PM

Understood. You’re probably of a certain age. Our world is disintegrating, and we’re standing on thin cracking ice. Well, you’re not going to have a rosy retirement or live out your days peacefully, but I bet you had 30-40 good years.

The question now is how do we try to get that for our kids and grandkids? I think we do that by making sure that when it all comes tumbling down, it tumbles down on the liberals as well. We must take them out, as we say goodbye to the system we’ve grown accustomed to, but that nourished them.

As another commenter said, “Scorch the earth and die on your feet. Or live on your knees and eventually become extinct.” The real sin will be if we allow them to impose an E. Germany type system on our posterity that lasts several generations. If you do nothing to try and stop that, then you are guilty.

I may have lived as a quiet nobody, but like most people, I’m pretty ferocious when it comes to my kids. Personally, I’d rather be shot trying to get over the wall–not because I’m brave, but because I’d die on the inside anyway. I’d shovel shit for a living if it would keep me a free man.

JiangxiDad on April 25, 2009 at 8:05 AM

Power grab? That’s putting it euphemistically. How about coup d’etat, especially since Obama ran as a moderate and now rules as a radical. In law, it’s kinda like “theft by deceit”.

petefrt on April 25, 2009 at 8:39 AM

Waiting for all those goo goo groups who were positively outraged when the repubs wanted to nuke the filibuster on judicial nominees which never were subject to filibusting during most of the republic. The dems have to think once, let alone twice (thinking about consequences is not a dem strongpoint). If they do this against the will of the American public, they will not be in power long, and the repubs on retaking office will not have any compunction to do the same things to democraps on significant legislation. I hear that called the golden rule, I wonder if dems might have heard about that?

eaglewingz08 on April 25, 2009 at 8:41 AM

I wonder if the Democrats will actually all go along with this? It might depend on what the economy is like in October.

Terrye on April 25, 2009 at 8:58 AM

Well, get ready for the pitchforks then.

marklmail on April 25, 2009 at 9:12 AM

i wrote one of my senators about this yesterday (sen. jim webb). he, of course, takes no vote without consulting me. ha ha ha.

start writing, calling & emailing. and maybe we should plan some minor “protests” this summer so the senate can see them while they’re on summer break.

kelley in virginia on April 25, 2009 at 9:19 AM

Brought to you by the democratic party – bringing slavery to America since the 1780s!

There is only one way to prevent the descent into communism, and it is not legal.

calguyintexas on April 25, 2009 at 9:57 AM

We’re toast.

And as Mark Steyn said, “…there’s nowhere else to go.”

IrishEi on April 24, 2009 at 7:55 PM

That pretty much sums it up. Our chances of winning peacefully or violently are almost nil, and there’s really no place left to run to.

Somebody invent cheap space travel or dig up the Stargate on the double…our planet is way too small anymore.

Dark-Star on April 25, 2009 at 11:34 AM

Elections Have Consequences

And while the aspiration for universal coverage may be noble, the practical realities of getting there may prove harder for the American public to swallow. “There’s no question,” the senator says, “that this is a debate about rationing to a large degree. All your single-payer systems are rationing systems. It’s also a debate about technology and innovation. Because you will not have capital pursuing technology, innovation and science if it’s health-care related, because the return on capital won’t be there. And these things are so expensive, especially on the pharmaceutical side and the biologic side, that you’ll dramatically slow improvements in the quality of health care through science with a single-payer plan.” Mr. Gregg thinks that critique will resonate with the public.

That said, Mr. Gregg doesn’t necessarily think the American people will be happy with those consequences if the Democrats succeed in pushing through a “stalking horse” for a single-payer health-care system. “If they produce a partisan bill and pass it on a party-line vote, it’s their baby,” he warns. “They’re going to have to defend it in the next election cycle and it’s likely that it’s not going to be perceived as fair by the American people.”

Rae on April 25, 2009 at 12:15 PM

Didn’t Democrats explain how the majority of American people were against the end of the filibuster through a series of focus groups? Republicans should get to hammering the same message they did and start using the quotes of Harry Reid about it being an ancient right, which resonated so well.

amazingmets on April 25, 2009 at 12:28 PM

I’m sure AARP will be shocked when Medicare is folded into the new government system, and its clients start being denied treatments.

I would hope that the AARP would have a “Come to Jesus” moment when their contributors start dropping like flies because Obamacare has to ration it for younger voters, but most likely the position will be “tax our kids more so we can get our free scooters and drugs.”

By the way, every time I see an ad for the “old people scooters” on TV, happily informing their customers that they can get Medicare to pay for a several-hundred dollar piece of equipment, I feel like I want to punch a kitten.

TheMightyMonarch on April 25, 2009 at 12:36 PM

I wonder what the AMA will say about this? Talk about demoralization of an entire industry and profession…

ddrintn on April 25, 2009 at 1:10 PM

Let’s face it, the fascist Dems. have to get as much of their agenda passed, any way they can, before the 2010 elections. They know that there is a GOOD chance that they will no longer be in the majority in one house or the other.

TimothyJ on April 25, 2009 at 1:12 PM

The GOP is threatening to make life hell for Reid procedurally if they follow through on this,

What, the Republicans are going to grow a pair for this?

I’m holding my breath.

Squiggy on April 25, 2009 at 7:59 PM

PELOSI, WADDA DITZ

AMERICAN VETERAN on April 26, 2009 at 4:35 PM

Let’s face it, the fascist Dems. have to get as much of their agenda passed, any way they can, before the 2010 elections. They know that there is a GOOD chance that they will no longer be in the majority in one house or the other.

TimothyJ on April 25, 2009 at 1:12 PM

Hey Tim, it may take more that Tea Parties.

old trooper2 on April 26, 2009 at 10:24 PM

n excerpt from a peice I’m working on,

The Americans who assembled on April 15th were also cognizant of this simple fact, that when you give up responsibility, you give up control. Just as your parents were responsible for you from birth till age 18, in accepting that responsibility they retained control or, custody over you and were entitled to make all the important decisions pertaining to you and your welfare. Once you emancipated and took responsibility for yourself, you were then free to make your own choices, to do so according to your prerogatives, not theirs, and manage your life as you see fit.
The situation is the same if we as adults elect to entrust our responsibilities for our own well being unto our government. We will in effect turn ourselves over to their custody, conversely the government will then be obligated to provide for you, however they see fit. Because once you give up the responsibility, it is they who are entitled to make the important decisions. When they provide for your housing, they will tell you where you will live. When they provide for your healthcare, they will tell you what treatment is appropriate. And with the implementation of preventative care in our new government mandated healthcare system, you can rest assured that will find a mechanism to enforce what you may or may not ingest. It will give a whole new meaning to doctor’s orders. After-all, if the government is responsible for your health, they will be legally obligated to ensure your compliance with your treatment program. Just as the parent is held liable for their child’s compliance.
When they provide for your last line (2nd Amendment) of defense, they will tell you what is safe enough according to them. Just as they are telling GM what cars they are allowed to build and who they can hire and fire!
Do you not remember the old parental admonition? “I put clothes on your back, food in your stomach and a roof over your head! You will do as I tell you!” How could they get away with acting like such tyrants? Because they were legally responsible for you, and by being so, they were legally entitled to!
If you mistakenly think that you can get something for nothing, take governmental largesse without giving up the freedom to make choices for yourself, then you are not bloody paying attention. Just ask Detroit and Wall Street.

Archimedes on April 27, 2009 at 12:44 AM

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