Time to start freaking out about Pakistan
posted at 4:32 pm on April 23, 2009 by Allahpundit
Well past time, actually, but this Daily Mail piece has had me on edge since morning. The Kardari government gave the Taliban an inch by signing away Swat so now they’ve decided to take a mile in Buner. The wages of appeasement:
There are fears that the Taliban, who have already been handed control of the Swat valley, could now take Islamabad and topple the government.
Militants are believed to be just 60 miles away – and edging closer by the day…
Many in Buner are now too frightened to speak to reporters.
However, one judge said that the militants had entered the district in ‘large numbers’ and started setting up checkpoints at main roads and strategic positions…
Rasul Bakhsh Rais, professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences, said the Taliban may have concluded from the Swat deal that authorities will cave in to violent demands for Islamic law elsewhere.
‘They have natural allies in the religious political parties in other parts of the country,’ he said.
Read this dispatch from Time about the rapid shari’a-ization of Buner and spreading panic in Islamabad. How bad is it? Roggio ups the freak-out ante:
The Taliban takeover of Haripur would put the Taliban on the doorstep of Islamabad and would also put two major nuclear facilities at risk.
Haripur borders the Margala Hills, a region in the Islamabad Capital Territory. Haripur also borders the Punjab districts of Attock and Rawalpindi.
Attock hosts two major nuclear facilities in Pakistan: the Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex and the Kamra (Minhas) Airbase. The Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex host three sites where nuclear weapons and components are stored and assembled and aircraft and missiles are modified for use in nuclear attacks. The nearby Kamra Airbase is thought to host attack aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
Rawalpindi is the “garrison” city for Pakistan’s military. The city hosts the headquarters of the Army and Air Force, and several nuclear weapons research facilities are also located there.
I remember reading last year somewhere that the Pentagon has emergency contingency plans to seize Pakistan’s nukes if things go haywire, but I’m naively hoping against hope that Zardari and the military leadership will voluntarily surrender them to keep them out of jihadi hands if they think they’re about to be overrun. Obama would have to guarantee Pakistan’s security against an Indian nuclear attack, though, and even then national pride might stop them from giving up the bomb — assuming, that is, that the leadership still has sufficient control over the military to get them to carry out an order like that. A horrifying possibility here is that there are Taliban sympathizers among the Pakistani troops safeguarding their nuclear arsenal. The more leverage the jihadis get, the greater the risk of defections.
Pakistan’s sent a few troops to Buner and Hillary’s begging them to redeploy more from the eastern border with India, but given past practices, I assume some sort of “treaty” is in the offing whereby the government cedes Buner in exchange for a, ahem, Taliban promise to stay out of Islamabad. The analogy, obviously, would be Lebanon, where the terrorist outfit that dominates the country keeps a secular government in place to handle the mundane civic business with which it can’t be bothered. (See also Robert Kaplan’s piece yesterday about why Palestinians don’t really want a state.) What it means in practice is a terrorist base in the heart of the country, a la the U.S.’s worst fears about Anbar circa 2006, except with better communications and infrastructure than the jihadis currently have in the tribal areas.
TNR’s already whispering about the prospect of The One having to send in bombers and special forces, presumably to get the nukes and then get out, but I’m wondering at what point India gets involved and how. They’re the ones who face the most immediate threat from a nuclear Taliban; if Islamabad is on the brink, they have to decide whether to invade and go for the kill before the jihadis have established themselves as a government or hold off and let the Pakistani military focus on the internal threat. And if they wait and the Taliban takes over anyway, what then? Can’t wait to see what time it is on the clock next issue.
Update: Another factor re: Indian invasion is that it would instantly transform a Pakistani civil war into a common cause against the Indian enemy under Taliban leadership, thereby bolstering jihadi authority. If they go for it, they’d better be absolutely sure they can win.
Blowback
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Awesome graphic.
The Northwest Frontier Province is all in red, as are the Tribal Areas…all mountainous. Easily defended. Once the Taliban moves into the Indus Plains, into Sindh, Pakistan is no more.
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 5:21 PM
And btw…..O Creator of Worlds….I wonder if Iran and Pakistan have some sort of mutual defense treaty that would mess with our nuke extraction plans.
strangelet on April 23, 2009 at 5:21 PM
1978, and a test in 1983…
right2bright on April 23, 2009 at 5:21 PM
The Indians are in the middle of their *month*-long general election voting. Only Phase 1 has been completed. The Paks and the Chinese always like to stir things up around this time through their proxies, it keeps the police and army tied up guarding voting stations etc. The Prime Minister of India is a good, mild-mannered conscientious chap in his 70s who’s just had his second heart op, I think.
I hope the Indian army are prepared for this scenario. I’m worried (my parents live in India) but the local press aren’t freaking — they were a lot less panicky than the Western press last time round too — so I’m trying to stay calm.
The Afghans and the Indians have lots of ties (Karzai’s family were in New Delhi all through the events after September 11), so the Paks feel encircled. I’ll bet an absorption of the NW territories and Fata will break off according to ethnicity in the long run, leaving Punjab and Sind as the core of Pakistan. The Baluch want to leave too. I can’t see any of this happening painlessly but I hope the Pakistanis keep their coming civil war within their own borders.
Fortunata on April 23, 2009 at 5:22 PM
Don’t think so. I can’t see India attacking pre-emptively. In spite of the Pakistan-India conflict, the jihadis will want Israel and Western targets. India knows this, and they know we also know. They’ll watch carefully but let the West and Israel do the heavy lifting and hope they don’t end up as collateral damage. If Obama plays this right, by getting the nukes, he can make his bones real quickly and will take 2012 in a landslide. He’ll be forced into doing something and if he just lays it off on the U.N., all bets are off.
a capella on April 23, 2009 at 5:22 PM
i
It was Bush’s fault…..try this again.
…if we had not propped up Musharref and backed the supercorrupt Bhuto mafia family and dissed Afghanistan in favor of GW and the neocon clown posse’s Grand Misadventure of the Manifest Destiny of Judeochristian Democracy in Iraq….we might not be in such a pickle.
Maybe Michael Ledeen and VDH can give us some advice.
;)
strangelet on April 23, 2009 at 5:23 PM
This is the test Joltin’ Joe Biden was talkin’ about.
Fletch54 on April 23, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Thanks for the rundown, coldwarrior.
JAM on April 23, 2009 at 5:24 PM
If any city in America is attacked with a WMD, I’d expect the country to at least initially rally around Washington. That’s pretty much what Americans do.
And assuming that most Americans would blame Obama for allowing an attack is naive. They could just as easily be convinced that it was a failure of the previous administration…it’s record of success against terrorists notwithstanding.
Everything is political…you might see some defections among the MSM, but most likely they would circle the wagons around the Whitehouse. It’s very possible, speaking from a strictly political viewpoint, that this administration and congress could solidify their hold on power for years after a nuclear attack on our home soil.
Asher on April 23, 2009 at 5:24 PM
faster, please…..
hahahahahaha!
strangelet on April 23, 2009 at 5:25 PM
I don’t really see how. The two worst cases would be:
1) India launches a first strike against Taliban Pakistan, taking out the nukes. Lots of international noise ensues, but with so many economic ties to India all around, nobody really cares, because nobody–including China and Russia–have any reason at all to like the idea of a nuclearized Al Qaeda.
2) Taliban gets the nukes, gives one or more to Al Qaeda, and they find a way to take out some US cities and/or overseas military bases. Very, very bad, yes. But how would it lead to a world war? Even if Obama had the nards to retaliate in kind, it would obviously be justifiable.
China could be a factor here, too. They share a smidge of border with Pakistan, and have a lot of defense deals with the current development. If the Taliban were to take control, it’s conceivable they could flex some regional muscle. I’ve a feeling the Islamists would find fighting the PLA a rather different affair than fighting the US and NATO, particularly where collateral damage and human rights are concerned. (Again, some noise might get made if the Chinese went in to clean house–but everybody would have no real objection to the house getting cleaned).
Blacklake on April 23, 2009 at 5:25 PM
strangelet on April 23, 2009 at 5:19 PM
You’re useless. You say the same thing over and over with different words.
youngO on April 23, 2009 at 5:26 PM
India’s been waiting for a chance to take the gloves off.
Matticus Finch on April 23, 2009 at 5:27 PM
Yeah, AP, but last year the Pentagon wasn’t run by Obama people.
:-O
-Dave
Dave R. on April 23, 2009 at 5:28 PM
Welcome to our affliction youngO.
thomasaur on April 23, 2009 at 5:29 PM
I certainly know which narrative the media would run with. It’s just a question, then, of how stupid people really are. Lately their track record hasn’t been good.
Blacklake on April 23, 2009 at 5:29 PM
Just think, our country is following the same practices of the Pakistani government. Our head organizer is sure he can talk his way out of any tight spot, if not, he just hands it off for someone else to deal with. No problems.
GarandFan on April 23, 2009 at 5:29 PM
The left can say that all it wants, but mister hopey changey and their asses are at the fuggin helm. Blaming Bush will not save any of their butts from retribution or a coup d’état.Hundreds of thousands of American deaths( or more) on our soil? Shi’te you couldn’t pay me enough money to be a liberal then!!! He’s already heading down the dismantle intelligence/military/prosecute conservatives path and what do you think would happen after that?
G. on April 23, 2009 at 5:30 PM
Your post makes more sense than mine.
a capella on April 23, 2009 at 5:31 PM
My concealed carry permit is ready to pick up! allright!!
G. on April 23, 2009 at 5:31 PM
thomasaur on April 23, 2009 at 5:29 PM
lol. I actually like thoughful debates with liberals(nothing liberal about them) but he never has anything thoughtful things to say.
youngO on April 23, 2009 at 5:32 PM
India has repeatedly and publicly said it would never strike first. Not so the Pakis.
I really can’t see the Indians putting boots on the ground in Pakistan unless it’s first been defeated by a Western force. To do so would consolidate every Pakistani of every shade of opinion and religiousity against us. I’d rather they killed each other off, unobstructed by India.
Fortunata on April 23, 2009 at 5:32 PM
Back in the Summer of 2007, Obama was sharply criticized by Democratic presidential nomination contenders for saying this:
I will support the President in this effort 100%. I don’t want him to fail at all if he’s going after terrorist scum. Especially where nuclear weaponry is involved…one can appreciate the irony though, if Obama’s first foreign policy controversy on the election trail becomes his first real test…not talking sea-faring pirates here.
RepubChica on April 23, 2009 at 5:33 PM
I looked at a map of Pakistan that shows the province boundaries. Swat and Buner are very close to Islamabad, but they are also in the North West Frontier Province, an area with a large Pushtun percentage of the population. It may be that both Swat and Bruner have essentially no Pushtun residents, but they also seem to be small areas with small populations that are easy to, for lack of a better word, “conquer”.
The current Pakistani government may have simply seen Swat and now Bruner as trifling events, a simple negotiation that others in the area would have understood in cultural terms. I think they simply do not have had the intestinal fortitude to treat these events as they should have, a threat to the legitimacy and existence of the government
I think that a better indication of the situation is upcoming events in Peshawar, and more importantly Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore, and the actions / reactions of the Pak government and armed forces.
Right now, the bulk of the populace looks at the Taliban and Sharia with fear. Religion vs. what people want.
There is a chance that the current government may have calculated that they have to afford to lose all of the NWFP in order to retain the loyalty of the Pak armed forces. They lose Peshawar and Kashmir as well, and much face, but they retain power and lose a few problem areas.
I expect the Baluchis to begin agitating, and events Quetta and Karachi might push things in ways unforeseen. I think that a secessionist action in the South might unite the Pak armed forces, but it is the North where things will unfold.
Right now, I think everyone will watch, plan and wait.
But not to minimize the events in Swat and Bruner; to steal a famous quote, I interpret the events as a firebell in the night.
Arbalest on April 23, 2009 at 5:39 PM
Well thought out post. This is the type of “gaming” I would hope is being done at the JCS-level right now, if not weeks and months ago.
Can we hold Obama to this sort of “vision?”
Problem being, Asif Ali Zardari is no Musharaf.
Just this past March, a few weeks ago, Zadari was praising Obama, and claiming to do everything to maintain the territorial integrity of Pakistan, while at the same time Zidari offering more concessions to the Taliban and other Islamists radicals in Pakistan...the appeasement, I suppose, was viewed by Zidari as part and parcel to some sort of Obama likes it, so let’s do it rubric.
After all…the Musharaf days were gone, national reconciliation would ensue and the bunnies and unicorns would descend all over that gosh-darn Pockistan….
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 5:42 PM
This is one area where theoretically the US, Russia, India and China could co-operate, since they all have to worry about Islamacist groups attaining nuclear weapons.
Mister Ghost on April 23, 2009 at 5:43 PM
Forgive me for posting w/o having read the entire comment thread yet:
THIS is why Zero’s pacifist defense-cutting America-last antics are so dangerous; he has no credibility, who would accept his guarantees? He has betrayed many of our long-time allies to cozy up to their enemies, who could possibly volunteer to be next?
I see us and India getting much closer on military matters in the near future, I just hope that Zero doesn’t screw it up.
Maquis on April 23, 2009 at 5:44 PM
Excellent summary Arbalest.
Fortunata on April 23, 2009 at 5:44 PM
I’ve a feeling the Islamists would find fighting the PLA a rather different affair than fighting the US and NATO
Let’s see if I’m understanding your meaning. Are you saying that the PLA will march over this and clean the Taliban’s clock and be back home in time for dinner? the same PLA that last sucessfully invaded another country in…umm, well, the Korean War I’ll guess was the last success in the field.
I could see the Chinese Air Force totally dominating the skies over Pakistan. It should take them less than a week to either totally destroy the Paki’s air defense network, or run them out of munitions.
But an over-land invasion of Pakistan from China? about as likely as Obama’s over-land invasion of Pakistan.
I R A Darth Aggie on April 23, 2009 at 5:47 PM
Good post.
If this spills toward Lahore…then India will be more than just gravely concerned.
The Baluchs will seek safety with Iran, as they have no need for the Islamabad government. Been that way for decades.
It is in Sindh, the Indus plains, and down to Karachi that worries me a bit. That is Bhutto country, for a long long time, it is also the most Westernized part of Pakistan…thus a logical target for the Talib. Take Karachi, by force or default, and there goes all of Pakistan.
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 5:47 PM
Well here’s some of the same words…..since you don’t seem to be lissenin’…GW is goin’ down in the history books as the torture president who doubled the nat’l debt and buggered the prime down to 1/2%, who opened the bomb-bay doors to the Taliban in Pakistan, and who spent our blood and treasure including 4,000 lives from the finest military on the planet so that the Iraqis could write shari’a law into their constitution and continue to slaughter our soldiers and blow each other up.
strangelet on April 23, 2009 at 5:48 PM
Victory in Iraq!
The Surge Worked!
Yay!
strangelet on April 23, 2009 at 5:49 PM
Dark days ahead. Buy your beer now.
blatantblue on April 23, 2009 at 5:50 PM
Don’t count on Russia – they’re building Iran’s nuclear reactor.
ProfessorMiao on April 23, 2009 at 5:50 PM
Interesting…give ‘em an inch…can anyone see why you don’t ever give in to terrorists or make concessions with them? According to the Daily Mail piece in AP’s post, Hillary’s hopping mad..accusing the Pakistani power-brokers of giving in to the Taliban and “extremists”…okay I made up the “hopping mad” part.
RepubChica on April 23, 2009 at 5:50 PM
I had a long discussion with an informed person from India. He said the minute it happens India will invade. He said it was openly being discussed during the Indian elections earlier this month. He said the major concern was dealing with the aftermath not winning (like what we faced in Iraq.) Sounded like they have known about, and preparing for this for a while now.
TheBigOldDog on April 23, 2009 at 5:51 PM
Speculating, with what appears to be sympathetic understanding, about an American president being removed from office in a military coup is 100% koo koo crazy, Suzy.
Infidoll on April 23, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Every incident in the world is on a road that leads back to the EVILCHIMPYBUSHITLER! Just can’t get enough of that. Man that is some original shit you got there.
This is why America will never again come together. That is long gone. You are entrenched in your hatred and ideology and I am entrenched in mine. You believe that America must atone for sin and be remade.
I would die to stop that. Are you willing to kill me to get the America you want? You will have to you know?
John D on April 23, 2009 at 5:54 PM
Obama has already made it a matter of national Security policy to fight the Taliban…in Afghanistan and in Pakistan.
He upped the ante, and is waiting for the river, before he either folds or goes all in.
Any bets?
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 6:02 PM
Exactly. That was last year. This year? Contingency plans probably been replaced by a “sternly worded letter”. Budget cuts, don’t ya know.
uncivilized on April 23, 2009 at 6:02 PM
Once they have the nukes secured, the nuke scientists and techs as POW’s or dead, some righteous destruction as required, then retreat with the promise to return if they pull any more crap. I doubt India is stupid enough to believe they can create a peaceful democracy out of that mess.
I hope and pray that’s so.
Maquis on April 23, 2009 at 6:04 PM
Pak’s nukes in safe hands for now, says PM
TheBigOldDog on April 23, 2009 at 6:09 PM
Good thing the adults are in charge.
The gop would have invaded Iran by now and find no WMD’s again.
getalife on April 23, 2009 at 6:09 PM
Imagine Hamas with nukes…
Pakistan has been educated by wahabis for the last generation. This is simply a flux in the political make up of Pakistan based on the change in its culture. You create a wahabi influenced citizenry this is what you get.
Promoting democracy in Pakistan is the ignorant. The Bush policy of supporting democracy anytime anywhere is ridiculous. Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood is what Middle Eastern/Muslim democracy looks like. Let them have a dictator.
Theworldisnotenough on April 23, 2009 at 6:10 PM
Lol…comedy is not quite your bit, but self-parody might be a wise career choice for you.
Avert your eyes
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/03/21/GR2009032100104.html
And what torture? The caterpillar in the box? The rubber walls? The Celine Dion?
Water boarding, I know. Uncomfortable, but historically it’s nothing.
http://www.medievality.com/torture.html
LA wasn’t attacked because we made some mass murderer uncomfortable for a minute or two. I think that’s fair.
Obama has pretty much adopted all the tools from the Patriot Act and the wiretap decisions. None of that has changed at all. And he’s killed GM while at the same time blowing billions to save union jobs.
He’s Bush II in so many ways. Enjoy….
Asher on April 23, 2009 at 6:13 PM
Not to worry, remember Obama named an envoy for the area.
And Hillary is all set to blame others.
When will we get to see Obama shaking hands and giving the ear-to-ear grin with Osama and the head of the Talibahn?
“They like me, they really like me!”
India is worried big time.
albill on April 23, 2009 at 6:14 PM
I bet Obama does nothing. He is the “present” President. Unless the NYT is running a front page article featuring a picutre of the Taliban with the launch codes Obama will sit it out and rely on the media to cover his arse. He onyl uped the ante rhetorically to improve his image. Weak on terror talk tough. Getting blasted by angry liberals allude to possible prosecutions of Bush era officials. His words mean nothing.
Theworldisnotenough on April 23, 2009 at 6:15 PM
Pull back troops from Pak border: US to India
TheBigOldDog on April 23, 2009 at 6:15 PM
eh- the reverberations caused by the O’s soaring rhetoric will literally knock the missles out of the sky. No worries here- Oh look! The Obama’s dog is wearing a new sleeveless dress on Access Hollywood. Awww!
shannonkelly on April 23, 2009 at 6:15 PM
He was saying one of the Parties made going into Pak a campaign pledge.
TheBigOldDog on April 23, 2009 at 6:18 PM
Thank you for your insight on the imminent downfall of Pakistan.
That was very helpful
redshirt on April 23, 2009 at 6:28 PM
At this very moment, 0-bama’s staff is selecting a special box set of DVDs to give to Paki Taliban leaders. Smart Power!
Cicero43 on April 23, 2009 at 6:29 PM
So when does Obama fly back from a Taliban-controlled Islamabad waving a piece of paper in the air and breathlessly claiming “peace for our time”?
Who dares, wins. You can bet the Taliban can look around and see what works.
North Korea and Iran are both ‘winning’ just by ignoring US threats, which given the lack of a big stick behind the soft talk isn’t all that daring.
JEM on April 23, 2009 at 6:29 PM
redshirt on April 23, 2009 at 6:28 PM
It is 7:30 am in Seoul, South Korea it’s early there and the poor dear is just tired. Give her a chance to have coffee and figure out the point of the thread.
John D on April 23, 2009 at 6:31 PM
I bet there are moderate members of the government who might know someone that would let the weapon parts go for wholesale plus 10%.
BL@KBIRD on April 23, 2009 at 6:34 PM
That is so ridiculously arrogant it’s not even funny. Imagine Mexico fixing to shoot nuclear bombs at us and Canada telling us not to fight back.
American understanding of the region is about like a man understanding the menstrual cycle of a woman and how it feels. . . or a man having a baby.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Clinton recommends America strikes against India (because that’s what our ‘friends’ Pakistan told us they needed from us to difuse the situation).
Pakistan has played us harder than a street game in NYC. Our ‘intelligence’ is pathetic. We need to get out of there or get with India and deal with Pakistan like Iraq. It will happen eventually. Our playing patty-cake with Pakistan will only delay the inevitable.
I can’t believe our nerve of telling India what to do in such a crisis for their population. It is Bush’s fault, but it is a lack of understanding of the situation.
Seriously. . . it’s like Our state department couldn’t even pass kindergarten in the South Asia region.
ThackerAgency on April 23, 2009 at 6:35 PM
Folks,
Time for some perspective..from an Indian.
The Pakistani nation state is basically the military – they have a weak and at best fledgling democracy and at worst a feudalized country with the Punjabis having the lion share followed by Sindhis.
For the Taliban to take over Rawalpindi (which is the garrison city) or Islamabad, the Pakistani army has to co-operate i.e. they can either fight them or strike a deal with them and share power.
It does not look like they are fighting the Taliban, does it? It infact looks like they may sign another “peace agreement” and share power, if push comes to shove. All in the name of peace and stability.
So the question now is this – what if the Pak army says that they do not want to fight a bloody war with the Taliban that might actually weaken their state so much that it ceases to exist ?
Instead of fighting with the Taliban, what if there is another crap peace and power sharing agreement in which the military takes over again and promises to keep the Taliban in check ?
What does Obama do now ? I simply dont see the Paki army ready to fight the Taliban to the bitter end – they are both natural allies and share a hatred of India. Heck, the Taliban was created so that Pakistan could terrorize more and with strategic depth.
Army Chief Kayani was recently caught saying that he could use the Siraj Haqqani of the Haqqani network as a strategic asset dealing with the US. You can read all about this guy at LWJ – Roggio posts about his terrorist organization regularly.
And Kayani is the supposedly “moderate” guy. Can you imagine all the radicals in the army who might actually fight ALONG WITH the Taliban?
All the fundamentalist parties in Pakistan will welcome them with open arms. And just as it happened in Iran, pansy liberals in Pakistan will be intimidated into supporting this new “arrangement” – its either that or the dissolution of the Pakistani state.
This is a very complex situation and after seeing how Mr.HopenChange operates for the last 2 years ( i am from Chicago) I can guarantee you that the Paki Army will test him.
God Save India. ( we are too busy having elections and have leaders who make Obama resilient… picture that)
nagee76 on April 23, 2009 at 6:39 PM
yeah bending over and bowing down is much more adult
hope you live in NY or DC, where you’ll get to live the result of that grownup policy of appeasment…enjoy!!
I’ll enjoy watching your grownup bowing down to the taliban!!
right4life on April 23, 2009 at 6:44 PM
So, the chances of a Paki military coup are nonexistent? The military is too infiltrated with Taliban sympathizers for that?
a capella on April 23, 2009 at 6:46 PM
I had to read that a couple of times to make sure I hadn’t gotten it backwards. WTF!
ElectricPhase on April 23, 2009 at 6:52 PM
Thanks for the votes.
I’m worried that the current Pak government is not strong enough to put a stop to the encroaching “conquest” by the Taliban / other Islamic radicals. It may be that the government leaders are too weak personally, but it may be that they have reliable internal reports . . . . . .
If Pakistan withdraws from the NWFP, then the Taliban will simply handle each village / town / area in turn. Streams of refugees coming in to Islamabad / Rawalpindi, causing major economic, social and political problems.
Street demonstrations, riots, brownshirt tactics and the like might cause Pakistan to fragment, leaving the Taliban in power; this worked in Swat.
Such tactics in Lahore and Karachi seem possible, but both cities are too far away for successful action, and would get India’s attention. Karachi might bring in international actors, and the Indian Navy would have to handle things immediately.
Agitation in Rawalpindi or Islamabad would likely be seen as an attack, and might galvanize the Pak government into retaking the NWFP and putting an end to the problem.
Peshawar seems vulnerable. It seems to have enough Taliban / Islamist supporters, is within easy re-supply range, and would represent a near-fatal blow to the concept of Pakistan. Politics and public opinion are major weapons today. Loss of Peshawar could easily be the tipping point.
The Baluchis might then secede, and possibly even Sindh. Pakistan is then no more and the Islamabad government becomes the government of Punjab. Large numbers of refugees in Islamabad will make the government unstable. Eventually, religious elements manage to dominate. The Pakistani nuclear devices are now in the hands of Islamic extremists. Game over.
I can only speculate a timeframe for this scenario. Weeks or months might be enough to consolidate the NWFP. Peshawar (or some other large Pakistani city) might be a year or two off.
This gives the Pakistani government time to act, and other governments time to support them / prepare. Nonsensical requests to India (pull units back, keep the navy in port, reduce air force flights, etc.) are not part of the solution (although suggestions like watching the northern mountains and Arunachal Pradesh in particular are useful.
We all need to get our choices and actions right this time.
Arbalest on April 23, 2009 at 7:12 PM
I appreciate the insight both of you have provided.
I would hope that the White House and NSC are paying very close attention to all of this and are not trying to play this thing for domestic political gain…though, sadly, I suspect, based on prior actions, they are.
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 7:21 PM
The Pakistani Air Force is perhaps the most immune from being sympathetic to the Taliban, though if given the right circumstances, even these may go over to the dark side.
As for the Army…the last few years have fragmented it terribly. Special operations forces are not immune anymore. The average infantry soldier is very much ripe for Taliban exploitation.
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 7:24 PM
thanks to everyone for this info. if only 20% of Americans know who Thomas Jefferson was (i’m just pulling that off the top of my head), how many Americans could possibly have any idea what is going on in Pakistan? that’s why i don’t think bambi is going to do anything unless we can galvanize this country into thinking the “tallyban” is evil.
I read LWJ & Sindh Today to try to get some perspective.
kelley in virginia on April 23, 2009 at 7:26 PM
Damn. I wish we had a different president in office to handle this threat. It could be big and I don’t think this one is up to the task. How good are his advisors? This could be the 3am call he thought he could handle. It’s not like we can send in the SEALS on this one. And Hillary? God help us.
scalleywag on April 23, 2009 at 7:36 PM
Freak out time is right. I could sleep much better tonight if we didn’t have arrogant jackasses in charge. Anyone who seriously trusts team Obama/Biden/Hillary to handle this over Bush/Cheney/Rice is certifiably insane.
We’re running out of goodwill gestures… fast. Videograms wishing the Taliban a Happy Nowruz won’t work ’cause cameras are evil. They won’t be impressed at all with photos featuring glistening pecs and swim trunks (Au contraire). They care not a whit about Michelle’s well-toned arms, or organic gardens and swing sets with rubber mulch, or using green bags for groceries to save the planet, or apologizing to the G20 nations for America’s original sin(s).
What’s Obama to do?
Buy Danish on April 23, 2009 at 7:36 PM
An Indian Army officer writes an open letter to Pakistani Chief of Staff Kiyani.
Remarkable letter.
Kiyani, Stand up to the Taliban.
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 7:38 PM
This is the part where maybe the One wishes he had used some common sense in picking his appointees instead of returning favors.
scalleywag on April 23, 2009 at 7:38 PM
That idea is soooo last year.
Disturb the Universe on April 23, 2009 at 7:40 PM
To borrow a line from Ernest Hemingway,
Isn’t it pretty to think so?
Disturb the Universe on April 23, 2009 at 7:41 PM
Thanks again.
Two things I should add; my posts assume that:
1. The Pakistani government posesses enough support among the military, police and civilians to be able to easily quash agitation / uprisings / etc. in Islamabad, Rawalpindi and most other cities (at least in Punjab).
2. The Pakistani government posesses enough huevos rancheros to stand up to the Taliban / Islamists and will order the military / police to act. If the government instead spoils its pantaloons and gives up, who would’ve foreseen this as the action of a legitimate government?
Arbalest on April 23, 2009 at 7:50 PM
The Indians seem to have little confidence:
Is it Af-Pak? Is it Pak-Af? It’s a Fak-Ap!
TheBigOldDog on April 23, 2009 at 7:52 PM
The shit has hit the fan, be advised there is incoming. This is what is going to happen. 1) Israel takes out Iran 2) India takes out Pakistan 3) China attempts to take out America and half a billion Chinese die. America takes three nuclear strikes, Washington DC, Los Angeles and Norfolk Va. 4) Russia takes out half of Europe and is decimated for it’s efforts.
Barack Obama survives the nuclear strike on Washington DC and in response to an emotionally charged speech before the United Nations is granted the title President of the United Earth Confederation.
Dont say you havent been warned…..
doriangrey on April 23, 2009 at 7:54 PM
strangelet:
Are you a moron, or just satirizing one?
So, somehow Bush is completely responsible for the actions of Nasser, Qutb, General Zia, Musharraf, the Bhuttos, the Osama, Zawahiri, Mullah Omar, the tribal chiefs of the NorthWest frontier, Saddam Hussein, and Khan (to name the idiots who come immediately to mind as being directly or indirectly responsible for this)?
Think about that.
and WHAT?
Pakistan has been a factor in American foreign policy ever since 1947, and ESPECIALLY since 1978.
If you knew ANYTHING about politics, you would KNOW that you CANNOT just ignore a factor of this size and importance, as tempting as it may be.
So what should we have done instead of propping up the military and the Bhuttos? Allowed the country to fall into Communist or Islamist hands? Allowed India to annex it? Toss the dice and HOPE democracy emerges triumphant in a most inhospitable landscape?
You don’t really have an alternative, now do you?
Didn’t think so.
Alright, not only do you have NO frickking idea about diplomacy, you also have no idea about military strategy either. Suprise Suprise.
Here’s a quick lesson:
The overarching strategy in all wars is to destroy the enemy’s ability to effectively fight.
To do this, you usually have Decisive engagements which hew down soldiers, destroy equipment, discredit commanders, break morale, capture ground, etc.
These decisive engagements are battles or campaigns that you SHOULD have heard of, ones like Yorktown, Gettysburg, Santiago de Cuba, Manila, Peking, Verdun, the Marnes, Vittorio-Venetio, Amiens, Warsaw, El Alamein, Stalingrad, Tunis, Falaise, the Bulge, Berlin, Inchon, etc.
These weaken the enemy’s ability to wage war but ALSO lessen his strategic options and force him onto the defense.
THIS is what you and the crowd talking about holing up in Afghanistan do not-and I suspect CANNOT- comprehend.
Afghanistan is not a place to fight a decisive battle against a global force, because the Jihadis can abandon the field at any time and leave us holed up while they shift their resources to places like Thailand, Chechnya, and- YES- Pakistan. For instance, where do you think all those Taliban fighters came from? They redeployed across the frontier to a more successful front, which is WHAT a military does if it wants to WIN.
Don’t get me wrong, a successful Afghan campaign and rebuilding is CRUCIAL to our overall success.
But it CANNOT be the end-all-to-be-all of our strategy, because it offers no hope of a decisive engagement.
This is part of the reason we intervened in Iraq, whose strategic and symbolic value- unlike the backwaters of Afghanistan- DOES offer a chance for – if not THE climatic battle- at least A decisive engagement.
You’re right.
We would be in a WORSE one.
Wow, it comes up with a good idea.
I am.
As opposed to, say, Lincoln, Wilson, FDR, and Truman, all of whom were FAR more accepting of torture and civil rights violations.
Aren’t they regaled as villains, right? (and note to all with Wilson/FDR/Lincoln-Derangement-Syndrome: I am NOT condemning them, for they did what had to be done given the things they had at stake).
Somehow, I think that will be overshadowed by Obama’s contributions to the “nat’” debt.
Nope, the Pakistanis did that THEMSELVES. Indeed, the Taliban was largely FORMED by Pakistani Dictator Zia ul-Haq to “purify” Pakistan and fight the Soviets in Afghanistan.
And would this be opposed to Osama’s illegal and aggressive DESTRUCTION of our blood and our treasure on OUR soil and abroad YEARS before W came in?
And I am supposed to think you mean that, given the insult towards them you made later?
And you think OUR Constitution was perfect when it was first written (slaves, voting restrictions, sexism, and all)? If we can beat back the Islamist and Natioanlist tide, there is a good chance that they can slowly and painfully work the kinks out.
Obviously, you have been listening to the MSM to much.
Most of those in Iraq who “slaughter our soldiers” are NOT Iraqi, but are foreign Jihadists coming from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and even the West to wage holy war on us AND the Iraqis. Indeed, since the insurgency started, it is likely that more Iraqis have died fighting WITH us than have fighting AGAINST us.
And here I thought our soldiers were the finest in the world? Yet you mock their achievements? Hypocrisy.
You mean this sarcastically, but you are probably right.
Why?
Because the Jihad SHIFTED its Theater of focus from Iraq to Pakistan. The all-time-low casualty reports show that the terrorists are obviously less active at the same time more Jihadists and their equipment is being redirected out of Iraq and Afghanistan to Pakistan.
Where do you think they got all those men to attack the Pakistani Army?
From other fronts, like other forces do.
They are hurting, but not fatally. Which is why we must stay the course if we are to have any hope of crushing them in the forseeable future.
But of course you can’t be bothered with facts and logic, can you?
Here’s some questions for you that I do want answered:
1. What other policy would you have used for Pakistan, considering the inability to have a “hands-off” stance on the matter and how you decry the US for its prior policy?
2. Why are the Jihadists not mounting major attacks in Iraq anymore? What happened to their equipment?
3. How do you expect to win a war by holing up in a backwater and not engaging the enemy?
I await your response.
Turtler on April 23, 2009 at 7:59 PM
You will be waiting a very long time before you get a genuine rational, honest or logical answer.
doriangrey on April 23, 2009 at 8:03 PM
Don’t. These people paste the same tired taunts into several threads, then just sit back and count how many responses they can goad out of us cons.
RushBaby on April 23, 2009 at 8:04 PM
Fair enough, but I can wait.
That may be true, but if we do not fight back, don’t we yield the battlefield to them?
Better to meet their boasts head on.
Turtler on April 23, 2009 at 8:06 PM
Well in that case grab a couple of good beer’s and click my nic for some torturous and painful excuses for music… ;)
doriangrey on April 23, 2009 at 8:15 PM
Dear crybaby conservatives who wet their pants and hide under their beds, between Bob Gates and General James Jones, the grownups will handle this situation. You little girl conservatives can hide under your skirts. You had your chance for 8 years and you f’d up everything you touched. Now all you do is whine and complain. Do you ever get tired of pissing and moaning all the time? Ever wonder why your numbers are dwindling? But keep sending out Darth Vader to make your points, he’s a great spokesman, or maybe Rove, he reminds people of Bush, or maybe Newt and his adulterey. Hows that NY20 race going for ya? How bout that senate race in Minnesota? See a pattern here? But keep whining about Obama, how bout a nother tea party? Tell us how non-partisan they were. Obama is popular, your parties not.
athensboy on April 23, 2009 at 8:18 PM
Thank you for the offer, but I don’t drink alcohol.
Turtler on April 23, 2009 at 8:18 PM
Yea, what ever…..
doriangrey on April 23, 2009 at 8:27 PM
Jeez, I can’t imagine why India isn’t impressed. From your link:
And then we get to The Goldilocks Doctrine which apparently has replaced Winnie the Pooh:
Buy Danish on April 23, 2009 at 8:28 PM
Keeerist on a bicycle! These are two of our so-called experts, at State and in the Senate?
If I were a Pakistani with the means, I’d consider opening a haberdashery in Cincinnati next week, and bring all of my family with me.
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 8:31 PM
In other words the Hildibeast doesnt have a clue what she’s doing…
doriangrey on April 23, 2009 at 8:33 PM
Athensboy:
Well, it’s you again.
Projection much?
Perhaps, but much depends on HOW they handle it, and what the outcome is.
Firstly, I have no skirts. Secondly, I am pretty sure that those “little girl conservatives” that DO have ones would probably opt to knock you senseless instead if they had half the chance.
I concur.
We F’d up:
* The Taliban
* Al-Qaeda
* The Baath Party
* The Hussein Family
* The petty little militias and thugs who got in our way,
and
* dozens of the Jihad’s top operatives.
The problem instead lies with those we CAN’T touch and F up, Osama being case-in-point.
But we’ve done pretty well all things considered, given Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya’s nukes, and the absence of terror attacks in the West.
Some of us? Yes. But hardly all of us. And look who is talking.
The irony of you saying that without realizing the irony is epic.
And how would you know about our numbers? I sure as hell don’t, and neither do most if not all. So how do you know our numbers are “dwindling?” Sources? Facts? Magic 8 Ball?
If he were not a fictional character owned by Lucas, we might. He is a POS, but- if you ever knew about Star Wars- Vader is actually very percise and BRUTALLY efficient.
Oh, you mean Cheney? Why not? The man knows what he is talking about (see how your side bungled the torture/interrogation memos and is getting hounded for it), and if you ever heard Cheney speak, he is actually quite good.
Good idea. Better than using the McCains or other RINOs. Again, Rove is actually quite competent.
Which, in a few month’s time, may actually IMPROVE how people see him.
Nah. Newt is a good organizer, but he is a little bit coo-coo for my tastes, and he has definitely been trailing off for a while.
Yes. One very much like the seasonal up-and-down seesaw of political balance in a Democracy that happens from time to time. Don’t remember the Reagan Revolution or Newt’s 1994 campaign, do you?
Sure, why not? They stirred up a hornet’s nest, and will probably only help our cause.
Compared to half of the political meets out there, they were.
Ah, but popularity is not everything, now is it?
It does not mean you are RIGHT, it does not mean you are CORRECT, it doesn’t mean you KNOW ANYTHING.
And popularity is a very fickle justification, as you mocked Bush for and as you shall probably soon find out firsthand.
Again,
How do you know the Conservatives are Dwindling and this is not one of those seasonal reverses that lasts a while but comes and goes?
How is popularity a justification?
and
Why all the projection and smears? Is it because you cannot argue with logics and facts?
Turtler on April 23, 2009 at 8:35 PM
ROTFLMAO… I believe I just might be starting to really like you… ;)
doriangrey on April 23, 2009 at 8:39 PM
It’s a
Grimmgrim fairytale.Buy Danish on April 23, 2009 at 8:40 PM
I have the same long term concern about France. With their demographic trends, how long will it be before the Muslims there are the majority with their fingers on France’s nuclear weapons?
DerKrieger on April 23, 2009 at 8:43 PM
Not before Russia starts growing very large Mushrooms there…
doriangrey on April 23, 2009 at 8:45 PM
Don’t interrupt Turtler. He’s on a roll. ;-)
coldwarrior on April 23, 2009 at 8:47 PM
Somebody buy Turtler a sarsaparilla… STAT…. ;)
doriangrey on April 23, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Hey athensboy,
Why all the bitterness ? you need to chill. When i hear the deranged rants of these liberals, I wonder if Obama actually lost the election or if he is not popular..
its funny you mentioned Al Franken and Scott Murphy – it tells you how Minnesota voters are a total joke and upstate New Yorkers are giving them pretty good competition.
Imagine that – Senator Al Franken – only an assclown like athensboy can be happy about a clown senator like Franken.
nagee76 on April 23, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Russia is toast. With their demographic implosion they will be easy pickings for resource hungry China. Give it time.
DerKrieger on April 23, 2009 at 8:53 PM
Wow Turtler is having a zero tolerance policy for turds like strangelet, athensgirl… unlike this site, which allows all these trolls to merrily wander around.
Then again, we need the entertainment.
nagee76 on April 23, 2009 at 8:54 PM
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