Yon: Thailand’s cracking
posted at 11:38 am on April 13, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
Thailand has undergone a series of political upheavals in the past few years, including the deposing of its government in favor of a military junta in 2006. The next year, democracy was partially restored, and observers hoped that the Southeast Asian nation might return to stability. Michael Yon has spent a lot of time in Thailand recently, and reports that those hopes may soon be dashed:
I’m getting a sinking feeling about the growing unrest in Thailand. I flew out of Chiang Mai,Thailand on Saturday and am in Malaysia. A message just came in from Chiang Mai that tensions have increased in Chiang Mai even since Saturday. Many Thai people are staying at home even though it’s time for the national water fight they call Songkran. …
Despite the obvious progress, make no mistake that the current political crisis is serious. Every democracy is different, and the fuse is burning faster and hotter on this one.
Most of Michael’s post deals with the difficulties of traveling in Thailand in the event of unrest, with healthy disclaimers that the Thai like to keep foreigners safe and outside of their politics. He links to Sunday’s NYT article on the deteriorating situation. The ousted Prime Minister has called for civil war:
The army clashed with demonstrators early Monday after thousands of antigovernment protesters defied a state of emergency, massing in the streets, climbing on armored military vehicles and attacking the prime minister’s motorcade.
Soldiers charged protesters and fired automatic weapons into the air to clear a major road leading out of this city as Thailand began celebrating its three-day New Year’s water festival. Hospitals said at least 60 people were wounded. …
Mr. Thaksin has been making nightly broadcasts to supporters in recent days, apparently from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Speaking to the crowd at Government House, the prime minister’s office, a protest leader, Jakrapob Penkair, said a state of emergency was “a declaration of war against the people of Thailand.”
He added: “They will try to disperse the crowds, but we will remain at Government House. We will start a people’s war.”
Rather than a religious conflict, which seems to be the latest fashion, this looks more like a clear political and economic conflict. All sides pledge allegiance to the monarch, who is in ill health and has no clear successor, but otherwise have come to the point of war with each other. Reconciliation looks out of the question, and Thaksin may have to return just to get his own side under control.
Blowback
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Spectacular!
John_Locke on April 13, 2009 at 11:41 AM
oh boy, do i have something to say about this. will post later…
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Interesting. I emailed a family friend in Thailand and they responded that the news seems overly exaggerated. Friend notes nothing out of the ordinary in their province. I just hope info/news is not being withheld from them.
Oink on April 13, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Thailand led the world into the 1997 Asian financial crisis and now they are leading us into the collapse of governmental structures. I would note that this is not a coincidence. Geithner must be having a really homey feeling about this, though …
progressoverpeace on April 13, 2009 at 11:43 AM
There goes my retirement destination?
Well, eleven years is enough time to keep looking.
artist on April 13, 2009 at 11:44 AM
my thoughts exactly! though Indonesia bore the brunt of the governmental instability during the asian financial crisis it seems Thailand will be more than happy to assume the position. its uncanny the similarities between their crisis and the current one. ohhh good old overheating of capital flow and debt.
ernesto on April 13, 2009 at 11:48 AM
i too spoke to my lady friend in Thailand. she assured me that she was in no danger but she’s up in Petchabun which is three hours north of Bangkok. saw some disturbing video on FOX News this morning showing Thai troops firing their weapons into the air in order to disperse protestors. travel advisories are beginning to be issued to travelers. may have to reconsider my vacation their later this year if things don’t get better.
stormin1961 on April 13, 2009 at 11:51 AM
The location du jour for foreign retirement seems to be Costa Rica right now, though that will probably change by the time you retire.
(I’m sure Iran was probably high on that list during the early 70s and look at how quick that changed.)
teke184 on April 13, 2009 at 11:54 AM
Do you think people in the outlying provinces are just unaware of imminent danger or is the threat just extremely isolated but made to look larger than it is?
Oink on April 13, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Why is he warning against the usage of motorbikes?
MadisonConservative on April 13, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Corrupt vs. Corrupt
Christien on April 13, 2009 at 12:03 PM
teke184 on April 13, 2009 at 11:54 AM
You’re right, CR is on my list!
artist on April 13, 2009 at 12:09 PM
What a shame to happen to a beautiful country and wonderful people.
kcluva on April 13, 2009 at 12:13 PM
Has there been a posting about the new header for Hot Air (Green Room, Advertise, etc.)?
amerpundit on April 13, 2009 at 12:14 PM
It would be great to read the philosophical distinctions between Thaksin vs. Abhisit.
Of all the countries advising their citizens to keep out of revolt, Obama’s officials remain silent?
British report:
maverick muse on April 13, 2009 at 12:17 PM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1169244/Man-killed-Thai-army-fires-protesting-crowds-tourists-warned-Stay-away-Bangkok.html
maverick muse on April 13, 2009 at 12:20 PM
most of the trouble is happening in bangkok for now. the protestors are concentrating their efforts there (and in pattaya for the summit) because that is the seat of gov’t and that is where they will get the max. exposure. it doesn’t surprise me that people upcountry aren’t seeing much disturbance.
also, when the coup happened in ’06 (i was there at the time), ALL domestic TV and radio stations were taken over by the military and/or shut down, so if you want news on this, you will get better info. from foreign sources. here is a good one that i got off drudge a minute ago. pay close attention to the last couple of paragraphs:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7996241.stm
these protests are a reaction by lower-class and rural thai people to first having their candidate of choice (thaksin) deposed in a military coup and then AGAIN last year having the gov’t that they voted into power last year changed by the military and “royalists”, at the behest of the upper- and middle-class protestors (yellow shirts) who shut down the airports after the elections.
this is class warfare at its nastiest, folks. it’s never going to be resolved until the bangkok elite resign themselves to the fact that democracy means 1 person = 1 vote.
thaksin is taking advantage of the situation, and i can’t blame him. yes, he was probably corrupt. but the elites made a huge mistake by ousting him in a coup instead of waiting for him to be unseated in elections or putting him on trial.
i fear that it will get much worse before it gets better.
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 12:24 PM
oh, and check out the thaivisa.com forums if you want to read a bunch of know-it-all expats spouting off about what’s going on there.
i suspect that you will probably find a lot of pro-abhisit/anti-redshirt people there, as 99.999% of foreigners there are rich compared to thai people and therefore will probably be leaning in that direction.
i may get on there later and argue with some of them, but i have work to do today.
i also see a lot of my thai facebook friends (who are mostly upper-class bangkok people) have really been angry at their city being shut down by these “stupid thaksin people from upcountry”.
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Speaking of know-it-all expats spouting off, here was Pajamas Media white-washing the initial military coup and the undemocratic new constitution, back in August 2007.
sandberg on April 13, 2009 at 12:41 PM
Ed,
You are aware of the ongoing Islamic jihad in Southern Thailand, right? This:
…is misleading.
2007 It’s been raging from at least 2004. Jihad Watch does regular updates.
The mujahideen in the South certainly don’t pledge allegiance to the monarch.
Beagle on April 13, 2009 at 12:44 PM
And I do realize that’s something of a separate conflict, but your statement sounds like there is no jihad in Thailand.
Beagle on April 13, 2009 at 12:47 PM
Costa Rica is pretty pricy along the West coast. Jaco and Quapos are the best towns there, but Gulfito is a neat place too. The East coast has almost no roads and Limon is the only East coast town. It is real crappy and full of thieves.
Los Suenos near Jaco is by far the best resort. Big money though.
saiga on April 13, 2009 at 1:08 PM
that is just… so wrong. wish i’d seen it at the time…
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 1:09 PM
One thing I don’t like about Costa Rica is they still allow long liners to fish there. They take Marlin, Sails, and Dorados in big numbers. The Chineese fish the area heavy, and the local Ticos call them Chinos.
Like most third world Latin countries, the thieves are pretty bad. They will smash a $200. windshield to steal 50 cents. New strict DWI laws too.
Very beautiful country, though. The road system is a mixed bag.
saiga on April 13, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Thailand was taken over by Muslims in 2006, correct?
jp on April 13, 2009 at 1:19 PM
not even.
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 1:25 PM
i’m quite sure there all aware what is happening in Bangkok. the problem is recognizing that it’s only happening in Bangkok and not throughout Thailand. the last time these protestors got out of hand they actually invaded Thailands major airport and disrupted flight travel for a few days. i would hate to plan a trip to Thailand and then find out that protestors have taken over the airport again preventing me from being able to fly in or out. the Thai police and military seem to be very apprehensive about actually getting as violent with the protestors as the protestors are getting as violent with them.
stormin1961 on April 13, 2009 at 1:47 PM
there is a lot going on in chiangmai, too, according to my friend there.
and the protestors who shut down the airports before are NOT the same protestors as the ones in BKK now. see my post above.
the police and military very well SHOULD be apprehensive about using force:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7996241.stm
“The problem for Mr Abhisit is that he came to power in December on the back of protests that were just as illegal, our correspondent says.
He may look hypocritical if he only goes after the red-shirted protesters who embarrassed him.”
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 1:55 PM
some of the latest video of what is happening in Bangkok.
stormin1961 on April 13, 2009 at 1:58 PM
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 1:55 PM
thanks for the additional info. i need to call my girlfriend later and see what she has to say.
stormin1961 on April 13, 2009 at 2:04 PM
my pleasure. you can also check out my now-defunct blog (linked from my username here) for some things that i posted while i was still living there, under the categories “thailand” and “thaksin”.
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 2:09 PM
Isn’t Thaksin’s popularity just based on the fact that, when he was in power, a lot of poor people got a lot of “free stuff?”
Based on my limited reading, this guy is no saint either. He’s got his buddies and extended family members in prominent positions in various private companies, and likes to dole out favors.
Seems to me that Thaksin back in power would be a lesser of two evils – similar to when Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan was regaining in popularity (she had a checkered past also).
Tak_Bulgogi on April 13, 2009 at 2:17 PM
does it matter what his popularity was based upon? he was democratically elected multiple times and was then ousted by his enemies in the elite establishment while he was out of the country attending a UN meeting. no trial, no proceedings.
his regime’s record speaks for itself. the thai economy and the middle class grew consistently throughout his tenure as PM. this is a fact.
what you refer to as “free stuff” improved the lives and futures of millions of the poorest people in thailand. there are many more poor people in thailand than rich people. that is why thaksin kept winning elections. the signal that has been sent to the rural poor and other thaksin supporters by the coup in ’06 and the subsequent co-opting of the elections late last year is “democracy for me, but not for thee”. that’s why the “reds” are causing havoc in bangkok now.
was thaksin corrupt? most likely yes. but as i have said many a time: “calling a thai politician corrupt is like calling a prostitute promiscuous”; it’s pretty much a given.
the point is not thaksin. the point is whether or not thailand wants to be a democracy.
ok, now i really need to get some work done!
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 2:36 PM
No
Asher on April 13, 2009 at 3:03 PM
I see from earlier comments that many people have some misconceptions about what is going on in Bangkok now, and what happened in Pattaya on Saturday. Has anybody ever seen a major international summit so smashed apart, with world leaders evacuated by helicopter from the roof? I can’t think of that ever happening before.
The red-shirts are being paid, just like the yellow-shirts who closed the airports in December were paid. You only need one guess as to who is paying for the current urban terrorism in Bangkok, as he sends in video messages to incite his followers from his undisclosed location.
Neighbourhoods began organising themselves this afternoon for protection against marauding gangs of Thaksin’s thugs. Clashes between citizens and “protesters” happened all over the capital today, and in some cases Songkran festival celebrations came into conflict with red gangs.
At one market this afternoon, about 500 vendors and residents fought off red-shirts to protect their property. The reds returned later at night (as I write it’s already tomorrow, 4:30 am) armed. Twelve residents were hit, so far two have died.
Citizens, killed by Thaksin’s thugs. I don’t think you’re right, Ed. Thailand doesn’t need Thaksin to return and calm things down, far from it. The only way he should return is in shackles.
More on my blog at the link.
Agam on April 13, 2009 at 5:33 PM
With all due respect, Agam, your coverage of this on your blog is awfully one-sided. To you, a crowd of redshirts with clubs are thugs, but switch their color to yellow and all of a sudden they’re just civilians defending themselves.
sandberg on April 13, 2009 at 5:50 PM
yep. the evil genius mastermind thaksin is using his money and influence from far-away england to manipulate those ignorant peasants and ne’er-do-well thugs into agitating for his return to power.
that’s EXACTLY the ignorant and, dare i say, elitist attitude that led to the coup 2.5 years ago.
and that coup has helped thailand and its people so much! why, just look at how well the economy and thai society in general has been doing since then…
homesickamerican on April 13, 2009 at 6:06 PM
Our dear leader, Kevin Krudd, was turned back to Oz in mid-air because of the dangerous situation.
I saw some photographs of the disorder. There was a lot of broken glass. Seems to me that there were red shirts and black shirts on hand, and some had their faces totally covered. That reminds me more of the riots in London by the anarchists.
Was it just Thaksin and his paid goons? Or were there others being paid to create a riot?
maggieo on April 13, 2009 at 7:22 PM
Feel free to look and see what I wrote about the opposite group during their antics last year. The people defending themselves in Bangkok yesterday weren’t part of any paid colour group.
Yes I do see a right side and a wrong side in the events in Pattaya and Bangkok. I’ve just seen video of the mob, pre-dawn yesterday, driving a vehicle straight through ranks of soldiers about six deep and sending them flying.
If you’d like to compare these and the roving bands of arsonists shooting up local residents who try to protect their own lives and property, to those very same groups of self-organised citizens, be my guest.
Agam on April 13, 2009 at 7:37 PM
I think you’re describing the storming of the ASEAN venue on Saturday, with the broken glass. There was so much more than broken glass with yesterday’s anarchy in Bangkok.
It’s almost traditional here in these situations, for talk of a “third hand” to come up. Sometimes there is one (it’s almost certain a third hand was involved in May 1992, which was a real democracy movement), and sometimes there isn’t. Both the reds and the yellows were in the streets at the same times on a few occasions last year, and they fought. But the yellow-shirts and nearly everybody else are now trying to stay out of it and let the military and police handle the red-shirts. No paid counter-demos this time, apart from those spontaneous neighbourhood defence groups.
Thaksin is the instigator and no one can seriously deny that. After the reds’ “victory” over ASEAN and other foreign guests, his broadcast message to the useful idiots (and most of them are not violent, but jolly country ladies who stay at the main sit-in clapping their noisemakers) was for more people to join in and “fight harder” and demanding that a revolution should take place right now. And when it happens he’ll come back to lead it “when the time is right.”
Somebody tell me what kind of “leader” this is.
Agam on April 13, 2009 at 8:11 PM
If a coup d’etat happened in America, you don’t think there would be demonstrations?
The anti-government protesters who are acting peacefully have a legitimate grievance. They do. (And by the way, plenty of them don’t even care for Thaksin much, they just want their civil rights back.)
Absolutely, there are thugs committing crimes, but as you say:
Yup. And they’re doing it because they want back their right to vote, that was stolen from them by plutocrats, corrupt generals, and mafia thugs. That’s why Thailand remains a third world country.
sandberg on April 13, 2009 at 9:21 PM
The yellow shirts claimed that the election was bought and paid for. This would naturally upset the upper and middle classes who are less susceptible to petty bribery (key word: petty) than the lower income folks that are being bribed.
The red shirts leaders are miffed that their bought and paid for election didn’t stay bought. The link above is video of Taksin talking live and (according to the translation) mentioning the money paid for demonstrating.
onthego on April 14, 2009 at 3:27 AM
sandberg, have you been stuck in a time warp or something? They weren’t protesting the coup or losing the “right to vote”. The post-coup interim civilian gov’t is long gone, and everyone has had a vote and freely elected a parliament since that time, in Dec. 2007.
What they were protesting against was actually the parliamentary system. Thaksin’s proxy party had led a minority gov’t under two different PMs through 2008. After the ever-changing proxy party – (TRT > PPP > PTP) was found guilty of electoral fraud, minority parties joined with the Democrats in parliament and elected Abhisit to form a government.
There was nothing undemocratic about that, that’s how parliamentary systems work – especially when you have dozens of little parties vying for support. There were about 8 different parties sitting in parliament, and Thaksin’s proxy didn’t have enough MP support to continue as the gov’t. And actually, a faction of Thaksin’s own proxies had defected and supported Abhisit in parliament, without which he couldn’t have made it.
If that seems to you like civil and voting rights are being stolen, then I guess I can start to see where you’re coming from now.
Abhisit is a good man and a committed political reformer. Thaksin is a corrupt power-hungry tycoon. I’ve been watching the political evolution of this country first-hand over the nearly 2 decades I’ve lived and worked here (I speak, read and write the language). There certainly have been serious and sometimes deadly struggles against actual dictatorship during that time, but to paint Abhisit as one of these is just simple-minded sloganeering.
Anyway the crisis is over for now, the reds are finally going home. Abhisit’s televised speech late last night had shamed a lot of them to start drifting away, and this morning their leaders told them to pack it up.
Thaksin gambled by trying to hold his former country hostage with mindless violence. Two innocent residents of the capital were murdered by his thugs, and one other person has died from injuries suffered in the clashes with security forces. It’s a miracle there wasn’t greater loss of life.
You ask how Americans would act if there was a coup, but I would ask a hypothetical much more current. Suppose President Obama was visiting DHS headquarters when a large mob overpowered security and flooded into the compound smashing up his car, dragging other officials out of their cars and beating them bloody (sending 4 to hospital), and generally rampaging like maniacs jacked up on speed.
How much support do you predict
would enjoy among the American people?
Agam on April 14, 2009 at 5:10 AM