Did NY-20’s dead heat mean anything?
posted at 11:41 am on April 1, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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The special election that gripped a nation, or at least the nation’s political junkies, wound up providing an anti-climax. With all of the Election Day ballots cast, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by a whopping 65 votes out of over 150,000 votes counted. Over 6,000 absentee and military ballots remain to be counted, and that won’t even start until after April 13th, the last day such ballots can be received and still count.
Some, like Jazz Shaw, say this looks like a replay of Minnesota’s Senate race, but that’s just wishful thinking in NY-20. Why, we had a gap of 225 after almost three million ballots got cast. When it comes to vacillation, we Minnesotans take a back seat to no one, pal. I’d bet that NY-20 has its election settled before we do, too.
The big question before yesterday was what the results would mean. After all, most people describe the district as fairly conservative on God, guns, and abortion, and that a Murphy win would be a triumph for Democrats. However, this district went narrowly for Barack Obama last November (51-48), which belies the “conservative” label that some have applied to NY-20. Kirsten Gillibrand won two elections to the House as a Democrat, including a 62-38 blowout win over her Republican challenger in November. A Democratic hold here seems less like a triumph and more like survival for Democrats.
On the other hand, Tedisco went into this race with a substantial double-digit lead over Murphy. Instead of immediately professing opposition to Porkulus, which would have resonated in this district, Tedisco took a long time to make up his mind about it, which Murphy skewered in campaign ads. Guns and abortion never came up in the race despite Murphy’s vulnerability on the issues. Losing steam in the manner that Tedisco did against a candidate significantly farther to the left than Gillibrand might look as though Republicans will fare poorly in the coming midterms.
I’m more inclined to call this a reflection of local organization than of national influence, regardless of who eventually wins. If anything, the people that voted for Obama just got done doing so, and have not had enough time to get the kind of buyer’s remorse that would have hurt Murphy, who ran explicitly as an Obama supporter. Democrats should worry that they lost a 2-1 advantage in this district, though, because Murphy will have to run for re-election if he does wind up winning it – and a better campaign will probably unseat him in the midterms.
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SARAH PALIN FOR QUEEN OF THE WORLD!!!!
alexraye on April 1, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Next, run a story about Sarah with a pic of Bigfoot or something.
jgapinoy on April 1, 2009 at 11:43 AM
I’ve heard Tedisco referred to as not the most conservative of Republicans, and that used as one of the reasons why he blew his lead. Anyone here actually live in NY-20 and wanna comment on that?
Snowed In on April 1, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Allah is going to need Palin brand eyewash!!
Invest accordingly!!
Mcguyver on April 1, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Your comment tracks with Ed’s analysis.
INC on April 1, 2009 at 11:46 AM
How much time do they need, exactly? Sheesh.
amkun on April 1, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Darnit, I gotta stop skimming the articles…
Snowed In on April 1, 2009 at 11:48 AM
I wonder if any other republican’s that plan to run for office will learn from this….
Item list
1. Backbone
2. Balls (in the literal)
3. DONT DIS RUSH!
rollthedice on April 1, 2009 at 11:48 AM
Politico says:
and
Got that? It isn’t that the party of the incumbent and the World’s Most Popular President is struggling to eek out a win. It’s just all bad for the Republicans.
MayBee on April 1, 2009 at 11:48 AM
One day, republicans will run like conservatives and they will actually win.
Given the choice between a dem and a dem, the dem will always win.
joepub on April 1, 2009 at 11:48 AM
The national unemployment rate hitting double figures will probably do it. Psychologically, that’ll have an impact on the public.
Doughboy on April 1, 2009 at 11:49 AM
Is today Sarah Palin Appreciation Day?
perroviejo on April 1, 2009 at 11:49 AM
It can take awhile. People don’t like to admit they’ve bought a lemon and the more emotionally invested someone is in their purchase (or vote) the less willing they are to admit that they have been had. Plus, you have the “True Believers” who will never admit they’ve just elected the reincarnation of James Buchanan.
Matt Helm on April 1, 2009 at 11:50 AM
Why only designate a single day? :-)
Doughboy on April 1, 2009 at 11:50 AM
More Palin please. You need to do this every damn day.
29Victor on April 1, 2009 at 11:50 AM
Democratic “volunteers” were paid.
Republicans had true volunteers.
If, with the easy ammunition of everything Barack has done in his first 60 days, we lose this election, Michael Steele needs to force out the Republican Congressional Campaign chair. Murphy is against using the death penalty on Osama, anti-guns and far left on everything else.
That said, I have to believe that once the military ballots are counted, Tedisco wins. One more vote in the House won’t make much difference, however. Either way this goes, it will mean nothing in twenty months.
PastorJon on April 1, 2009 at 11:52 AM
meh. ny politics is tough to project on the broader electorate…as we’re just so not real americans. plus our statehouse is a f*cking cesspool. neither party does much of anything for us…im convinced they just go to albany to shoot spitballs, snort coke, and screw hookers.
ernesto on April 1, 2009 at 11:52 AM
is equivalent in my mind to
Snowed In on April 1, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Whatever. New York is just behind Cali in destroying itself.
Bishop on April 1, 2009 at 11:54 AM
SPAD. So can somebody build a graphic showing her in the cockpit shooting down democrats?
Dr. Dog on April 1, 2009 at 11:55 AM
if Sarah had campaigned it would’ve been a landslide
jp on April 1, 2009 at 11:55 AM
Palin photo on each Hot Air item….today is April Fools Day…what could be the connection?
albill on April 1, 2009 at 11:55 AM
It seems the fact that both political parties are “OWNED” by the same people seems to be substantiated with every passing election. Tedisco appearing on Hannity radio tried to sound conservative, but his lies were just that…..lies. Has it become a basic requirement that all politicians have to be lying, thieving bastards to get on the ballot?
volsense on April 1, 2009 at 11:55 AM
I have seen that lady somewhere. Just can’t quite place where…
faraway on April 1, 2009 at 11:56 AM
I love all of the Sarah pix, but for April’s Fools Day shouldn’t they be Ron Paul pix?!
Y-not on April 1, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Seeing the april 1 date on every post makes everything feel like a joke. I don’t know whether to laugh or grumble.
petunia on April 1, 2009 at 11:57 AM
I thought you had and were just confirming what Ed wrote.
INC on April 1, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Ed, you can slice and dice, justify, make excuses or anything you want. The bottom line: People have had plenty of time to see what Obama is and what he’s doing, and they either don’t give a damn or are just fine with the current state of affairs.
Sad but true.
Knucklehead on April 1, 2009 at 11:58 AM
I think its a spoof on Allah by Ed.
Regardless, seeing Sarah all over the place feels more like Christmas and 4th of July put together for the vast majority of HotAir commenters.
Norwegian on April 1, 2009 at 11:59 AM
Wait… Shouldn’t that be “Republicans should worry” instead of Democrats? Or was there some other calculus missing?
Skywise on April 1, 2009 at 11:59 AM
Did somebody say “ACORN”?
Sapwolf on April 1, 2009 at 11:59 AM
C’mon, peeps, get with the program.
Reaps on April 1, 2009 at 12:00 PM
It’s not that simple. First of all, the media is covering for Obama, so a lot of people still have no idea what’s going on. Secondly, many of those who voted for him want to give him time. And thirdly, the American public unfortunately is often reactive as opposed to proactive. It won’t be until Obama’s policies royally screw up this country that the vast majority of the population will turn on him.
Doughboy on April 1, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Ah, marketing.
AubieJon on April 1, 2009 at 12:02 PM
Sarah Palin loves atheists too.
faraway on April 1, 2009 at 12:02 PM
I hereby request that all articles about the current administration be given an April 1 date until 20 Jan 2013.
Snowed In on April 1, 2009 at 12:02 PM
I can’t not see how this close of a call for a formerly Democratic seat can be a win for Obama. He personally endorsed the Dem in this race and this should still be his honeymoon time.
But the media spin will change a Republican victory into defeat. Most of the country still doesn’t realize the Democrats held the purse strings and oversight responsibility as the economy tanked.
It is like there is a force-feild over the truth it can only travel so far and then hits an invisible wall.
petunia on April 1, 2009 at 12:03 PM
I disagree. Gillebrand won 62 – 38 last November, and this race was 50 – 50 only three months after inauguration. I see a trend; it is just early days.
Vashta.Nerada on April 1, 2009 at 12:03 PM
Dude, that was, like, sooo clever! You were thinkin’ that one up all morning, weren’t ya?
————————————-
How long does it take to count the 150k votes and absentee ballots? Any minute now they’ll announce a few boxes of ballots from a Dem district have been found in an Acorn worker’s car trunk in 3…2…1..
RepubChica on April 1, 2009 at 12:03 PM
I agree. It’s a lack of local organization. I would imagine that 8 years of riding off of a presidential coattails has left the party there tattered and a bit lazy.
AnninCA on April 1, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Not exactly, but at least Ed confirms what I had heard elsewhere.
Snowed In on April 1, 2009 at 12:04 PM
OT:
Micheal Vick signed by NY Jets
faraway on April 1, 2009 at 12:04 PM
I have seen other news reports that seem to conflict with this. According to the AP, “Of the ballots mailed out, nearly 6,000 were returned by Tuesday but most had not yet been counted.” and “That puts the focus on the more than 10,000 absentee ballots mailed to voters who are registered in the district but were unable to vote in person on Tuesday”.
Their “most had not yet been counted” would certainly seem to imply that at least some counting has been done and that they are not waiting until after April 13 to start counting the absentee’s.
MB4 on April 1, 2009 at 12:04 PM
GWB had coattails???
Snowed In on April 1, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Double negative was unintentional but sort of apt.
petunia on April 1, 2009 at 12:05 PM
lol, the New HotAir, all-Palin-all-the-time.
Good luck with that. ;)
Was it you who said, so goes Alaska, so goes the nation?
strangelet on April 1, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Excellent idea!
backwoods conservative on April 1, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Odd Day. PJM ads are replaced with Palin Media. Ted Stevens is not convicted after all. NY election race continues after polls close. What else does HotAir have for us this April 1 — is Ed accepting an offer to replace Robert Gibbs as the White House Press Secretary?
Mark30339 on April 1, 2009 at 12:06 PM
I just heard the New York state government seized all the ballots. That’s comforting. Will ACORN be called in to over see the count?
JellyToast on April 1, 2009 at 12:06 PM
Good point. It would seem Gillebrand did not win because her district is sold out to hard core Dem ideology, but on her own persona. There has also probably already been impact regarding Obama’s policies that enough voters are swinging the other direction.
INC on April 1, 2009 at 12:07 PM
What!? And lose the only laugh track we got coming out of this Administration?
Dr. Dog on April 1, 2009 at 12:08 PM
The lesson here is that Republican candidates should run to the moderate middle and away from core conservative principles.
It’s worked so well every time it’s been tried, eh?
Greg Toombs on April 1, 2009 at 12:08 PM
See! I don’t know what to believe today! If NY grabbed the ballots that could mean cheating!!!! Or it could mean not cheating. I think today should just be called off.
april fools.
petunia on April 1, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Maybe Gibbs could return to the BeeGees
faraway on April 1, 2009 at 12:09 PM
OT, but typical:
Vashta.Nerada on April 1, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Hey Ed…e-mailed you the best Sarah Palin pic ever. Too racy for HA?
RepubChica on April 1, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Ed. Let’s be honest. If Tedisco won walking away, it would have been a major rebuke for Obama.
lorien1973 on April 1, 2009 at 12:09 PM
OK. It’s April 1st. We get it.
Does the Palin Pic act have to go on all day long?
It’s lost Teh Phunny by now.
Or maybe I’m jsut getting old and cranky. Mmmm…could be.
connertown on April 1, 2009 at 12:10 PM
The real message is Ed has a thing for Sarah Palin.
Her husband is not amused.
sonofdy on April 1, 2009 at 12:11 PM
That and the double digit inflation thats right around the corner. Maybe when people see that gallon of milk go from $3 bucks a gallon to $6 bucks they’ll wake up.
But my faith in the American people waking up to the reality of what’s really going on is fading daily.
Knucklehead on April 1, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Tax rules don’t apply to liberals. They require nuance.
faraway on April 1, 2009 at 12:12 PM
I have a different take on this. Regardless of who one or lost, the question for me is, Who stands to get the most out of this election, the Dems or Republicans? The answer to that is an emphatic vote for the Republicans.
If the Dems eke out a victory, the “lesson” learned is that Obama is still popular and so their tactics won’t change. Even with a Dem loss, the same conclusion holds.
However, if the Republican wins, then Obama looks vulnerable and momentum builds. But even a narrow Republican loss shows that there is softness to the support of Obama. This is not too different than what’s happening at the G20. Foreign leaders are taking the measure of the President and finding a lightweight. A more genial version of Jimmy Carter, but not as muscular.
The weakness meme has long legs.
EMD on April 1, 2009 at 12:12 PM
I think it is important in the sense that it matters who the GOP runs. Tedisco is beige and he doesn’t live in the district and has served a long time in an unpopular state government.
I think that Tedisco will eventually win once all of the ballots are counted, but I worry that we are never going to have another election where we get a straight up winner, except in the blood reddest of districts.
myrenovations on April 1, 2009 at 12:13 PM
All politics are local, lol.
strangelet on April 1, 2009 at 12:13 PM
Now now, no need to be Eeyores here. We survived Carter, and America elected Reagan to replace him.
amkun on April 1, 2009 at 12:14 PM
This election illustrates two things: (a) the fact that many people who voted for Obama are starting to have serious doubts and regrets only two months into his presidency and (b) that a certain species of moderate Republican candidate is worse than no candidate at all.
Tedisco is IN and OF the government class, and has been for more than two decades. He lacked any spine on fiscal issues such as stimulus because at bottom, like most professional politicians, he has no real convictions.
Even worse were the appeals to populism. Talk about confusing the message.
If and when the sea change comes in the 2010 and 2012 elections, it better come with a clear message that government must be made radically smaller.
JudetheFossil on April 1, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Seriously?
myrenovations on April 1, 2009 at 12:15 PM
OT: LOVE the Sarah pics. A delightful little inside joke for regular readers at the site. Or like Fan Appreciation day at the ball game.
Way OT: I think the ‘Limbaugh Letter’ is from someone on the left. Definitely not Coulter. It’s got the feel of the stereotypical Seminar caller: “I’ve been a lifelong conservative, but I’m going to vote against common sense and fundamental American values this time around because ________.” Seen here in the form of: “I’ve been a lifelong Limbaugh, but (I envy his wealth and he has too much and I’m a humble school teacher and I went to Columbia and one must be lib to be intellectual yadda yadda yadda)
Tom_OC on April 1, 2009 at 12:15 PM
What this really proves is that in a district that is pretty evenly inclined to vote either way–both sides campaigned like crazy– and even with an inferior canidate the Republicans likely won during the honeymoon of the smartest President ever!!!
This probably means the anger at the Republicans is easing and the playing feild is flattening out. It really is too close to call an out and out victory either way… but is a slight win for whoever really gets a slight win.
In other words it is what is is. Really.
petunia on April 1, 2009 at 12:17 PM
How about the continued incompetence of the NRCC? They keep coming into these swing districts and running cartoonishly bad TV ads that try to make the Democrat look like Osama bin Laden. I had a good GOP congressman until 2006 when the NRCC sent in an idiot to run his campaign. The guy never ran a single positive ad. People are sick of attacks; they want to vote FOR someone and something. Until Republicans learn this they are going to keep losing.
rockmom on April 1, 2009 at 12:18 PM
I really think it’s more like they haven’t seen the bill for it yet. Or the effects. Give it a year or so and things will change. If people are still content to be dumb in 2010; then they are ready for serfdom.
lorien1973 on April 1, 2009 at 12:19 PM
Micheal Vick signed by NY Jets
faraway on April 1, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Oddly enough, Joe Namath was just signed by the Atlanta Falcons.
Bishop on April 1, 2009 at 12:19 PM
In short, if we win, we win.
faraway on April 1, 2009 at 12:19 PM
The Oath of Allegiance to Queen Sarah:
“I do swear [name] that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Queen Sarah of Wasilla, regina Alaska, queen regnant of the fifty independent states, YOU BETCHA!!!!!”
I’m all in. For today anyways.
Akzed on April 1, 2009 at 12:20 PM
My point is is that if Tediso won, Ed’s post this morning would have been “epic fail for obama. he has no coat tails” Something to that effect.
But it wasn’t a win, so it’s meaningless this morning.
Is it really? I don’t know. But the spin makes me dizzy.
lorien1973 on April 1, 2009 at 12:20 PM
Amen. Republicans also have to get some younger and better candidates. Tedisco looked old and tired next to a youthful and energetic Murphy. I realize that in a special election sometimes it is best to run the person with the highest name ID, but in this era of “change” it is important for people to feel they really are voting for change.
rockmom on April 1, 2009 at 12:21 PM
No, but Denver is trading Cutler.
Snowed In on April 1, 2009 at 12:23 PM
Tedisco will win, the absentee vote historically in this district has broken 55%+ for the GOP. All Tedisco needs is to win the absentee vote by 50.8%+, which he undoubtedly will.
Pretty remarkable, given that this was a Dem controlled seat, won by Obama, Clinton and Schumer in past elections. And Murphy lead this outside the margin of error just a few days ago.
What caused the sudden drop for Murphy? My guess is the last minute Dem strategy to link Tedisco to Palin. It backfired big time.
Norwegian on April 1, 2009 at 12:25 PM
The party is bankrupt. When you have to rely on the failure of the opposite party in order to attain power, as opposed to effectively communicating your message, you are worthless. The party needs reform from the ground up. Perhaps the RNC should recruit candidates who aren’t pussy’s and are capable of defending capitalism in a rational way as opposed to conceding that its partially to blame or destructive in some regards.
V15J on April 1, 2009 at 12:27 PM
akzed, lol
faraway on April 1, 2009 at 12:27 PM
Thank you. You really fooled me on the Vick thing.
myrenovations on April 1, 2009 at 12:30 PM
I sure hope you’re right. I’m just in a bad funk these days. I’m surrounded by Obama worshippers. My kids, including my son the pilot who’s losing his weapon in the Flight Deck program, even thinks this guy is great and see’s no problems with the rest of his agenda.
I was raising those kids during the Carter years, obviously they’re too young to remember. But the crap seems to be hitting the fan a whole lot faster than what went down in the 70’s.
HA has become safe haven for me. At least I know there are others that think like me even if they don’t always agree with me.
Knucklehead on April 1, 2009 at 12:32 PM
Thats the ticket, Ed. If Steele’s RNC could not get a message to resonate in a majority Republican district, 2010 is looking bleak. The message is not only not getting through, it is not being delivered. Tedisco was a lousy candidate and Republicans deserve better. Steele’s RNC is sticking it to the base and we are just starting to push back. : ))
Angry Dumbo on April 1, 2009 at 12:35 PM
Abortion is not a big issue in upstate New York or New York in general. Remember, NY was the first State to legalize abortions before Roe v. Wade. If you became pregnant you traveled to NY to get your abortion.
Guns are very big and taxes are very big, but spending is not that critical. It is an odd setup in NY, and it takes very precise polling to win there.
That being said this was a very winnable race and whoever they had doing their polling and turnout needs to have their names publish so we can know never, never to hire them.
Jdripper on April 1, 2009 at 1:35 PM
According to NRO, Murphy’s lead has dropped to 25 votes. There was an error in reporting totals over the phone.
Wethal on April 1, 2009 at 2:09 PM
Angry Dumbo wrote:
I worked for the RNC for a while. I got assigned to working with congressional candidates, many of whom did not want to hear my ideas for recruiting new voters. They just wanted to stand on the base. I quit when I saw how hopeless it was / is.
I’m a Libertarian now with no real party to look to as the LP blows in its own way. I am seriously thinking of running as a dem seeing how I could do or say anything and get away with it.
noblejones on April 1, 2009 at 2:33 PM
GOV PALIN 2012!!!
christene on April 1, 2009 at 3:16 PM
These 50/50 elections are wearing on my nerves.
I think Democrats should wait before they rejoice here, win or lose this is too close to call a bewether for either side.
Terrye on April 1, 2009 at 5:11 PM
Angry Dumbo:
Steele is supposed to help get people elected, that is true. But the people who are actually running need to be the ones who take the message to the people. I think one election, either way is not enough to evaluate Steele. After all if there was a better more conservative candidate to run in this district he or she should have stepped up to the plate. At some point rank and file need to do more than complain, they need to get actively involved.
Terrye on April 1, 2009 at 5:14 PM
Ed wrote:
Not correct, I live in the district. When I came out of church last week, there were flyers on all the cars stating that Tedesco is pro-life and Murphy is not.
If you mean that Tedisco did not drill this in his campain adds, then you are corect.
And yes, I voted.
dentalque on April 1, 2009 at 9:28 PM
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