Slublog did a nice job slicing and dicing the data this morning, flagging the fact that the spread among respondents was 36 percent Democrat and only 25 percent Republican. It’s possible that the left’s party ID advantage is still that heavy — WaPo used a 36/24 breakdown for last month’s poll — but both Rasmussen and NPR found the GOP suddenly ahead or tied on the generic ballot just two weeks ago. I figure there must have been some movement towards the right on party ID in the interim, too. Re-weigh the crosstabs accordingly. My only critique of Slu’s post is that I think he makes a bit too much of the right track/wrong track numbers (as does WaPo, incidentally): If the economy starts to recover, we’ll probably see a 20-point swing towards the former. If, in six months, it’s still stagnant or getting worse, a somewhat lesser swing towards the latter. The numbers aren’t a pure referendum on Obama, in other words, a point reinforced by the fact that 60 percent say they approve of The One’s handling of the economy and just 26 percent say he bears a good or great deal of responsibility for the state of things (versus 70 percent who say the same for Bush). Support for how the feds as a whole are handling it is much narrower — just 49/48, which may go to show that Obama himself is somewhat more popular than his policies are.
Or does it? The trends in these two questions are promising but look at the spread in number 11:
And this is downright depressing:
Exit question: The guy’s already bet a year’s worth of American GDP on his economic program. How many trillion does he have to spend to be thought of as an old-school liberal?